Hardware:
I think the smartest defensive move Facebook can make at this stage is doing whatever it takes to become a major player in consumer hardware. Even if they breakeven, or lose money on this endeavor it can be treated as user acquisition costs for the people who wouldn't make a Facebook account otherwise, or as a way to make Facebook accounts as sticky as possible to protect against people leaving the platform. Anecdotally, I've seen people that have preached "Facebook is evil" for years, say that not they will not ever delete their newly open accounts because if they did their Oculus hardware wouldn't work, and they'd lose all of their purchases.
Facebook is dominating the growing VR market with an iron fist. Non-advertising revenue grew 156% in Q4, and IDC estimates 3 million Quest 2's were sold in Q4. Oculus Quest 2 has stellar reviews, despite the mandatory Facebook account for use. Facebook's VR devices also use Messenger for messages, Workplace for enterprise, and I believe Facebook Horizon (which is integrated with the FB app) will eventually be the place users load into initially, and launch third party apps from.
High investment cost makes it unlikely that other social media company can compete with Facebook in hardware (especially AVR), and this should give Facebook a permanent utility advantage against its peers. The companies that could compete, big tech, and gaming giants seem unwilling to make the investment to compete. I think they're aware that Facebook is completely fine making $0 to be dominant in the VR space, and that's scared them away in addition to facts like VR being a relatively small market for them.Apple is rumored to be considering a release of a Quest-like headset in later 2022, but the device will be priced far above $1000 according to Mark Gurman.
VR is where I'm most confident in Facebook's ability to achieve its hardware dreams, but consumer AR is also an area where its only competition in terms of investments made is Apple. So I think their chances there are decent too. Facebook is working on long term AR glasses, but is also releasing Smartglasses in collaboration with Luxottica (Ray-Ban and Oakley) this year. There's also Facebook's line of smart video chatting devices, Portal.
Traditionally Listed Moats
Intangible assets consisting of the vast amount of data users have shared: sustained and growing, but people are also sharing things about themselves on other apps increasingly.
Growth of users means network effects still growing
Number and diversity of advertisers, and advertiser verticals still growing
Competition?
There is rising social media competition, and always the threat of new entrants. That being said, competition seems to carve out niches, so they aren't competing as directly as we'd think. The closest thing to Facebook the Blue app, for connecting with family and friends is Instagram. Competing apps can have similar features, but the main utilities are different. Tik Tok is mostly a short video app, Youtube is a long video app, Twitter is a breaking news app, Reddit is a communities app, etc. Facebook's utility first and foremost is connecting with REAL people who's identity you can verify, like friends and family. Like previously mentioned, the closest competitor is Instagram.
Messaging
There can be lack of differentiation here, but Messenger tied to Facebook, Instagram, Portal and Oculus. I suspect it'll be tied to future hardware as well. Whatsapp has network effects, and may one day have lock-in comparable to Chinese super apps (at least that's what's being worked towards). iMessage is the the main competitor here, because they are automatically installed on every iPhone
Misc
I think Facebook Marketplace, the Craigslist alternative benefits greatly from Facebook using real identities, and is an overall better product. If you want to sell something locally FB Marketplace is the best option, and I think it's a strong reason to have an account. Usage of Marketplace is growing.
The integration with Jio in India, and importance in Indian society is worth mentioning for Whatsapp.
Facebook Groups, have competition in the form of Reddit, and Discord. The edge here will be real identities, and the tools they are building to make moderating a Facebook group profitable (subscriptions, etc)
The only other pure "Real Identity social network" is Linkedin is a professional network.
Problems
No young people use Facebook? This seems to be a US centric cliche, as Facebook is popular among all age demographics around the world. According to Pew Research 76% of people 18-24 use Facebook, only superseded by Youtube. For teens in 2018, 51% of teens used Facebook which is good in my opinion for a social network not targeted to teens like Tik Tok. I personally think the utility of Facebook kicks in after college age, but regardless if there is a problem, I think the cure can be User Acquisition through hardware.
Chance of mass exodus? again, mitigated by the lock-in of hardware, but this is a concern of mine based on Facebook's reputation. 1. Privacy, there is truth to some criticism here, because Facebook's business model does depend on data collection, and in many ways is opposed to strict definitions of privacy, but much of it is also pushed by myth like "Facebook sells data". Facebook has the same business model as its advertising funded peers, but perception is what matters, and Facebook is losing the perception battle. 2. Politics, In my opinion has been half of Facebook's reputation problem. Recently Zuck said that they are trying to make Facebook less political by not recommending political groups, and lowering reach on political posts. Also, Donald Trump being gone should make the next 4 years less politically controversial. Since Facebook is in the business of advertising, and people can mostly say what they want, there's always the small chance of a #DeleteFacebook movement reaching critical mass based on these themes.
Being banned in countries? Mitigated by becoming a hardware player, but this is an unlikely outcome for many reasons that my hands are too tired to elaborate on.
Apple's privacy stance and iOS 14: The hit to revenue estimates I've seen are between 1%-7%, but it could also be a boost to revenue since third party signals being reduced will give the edge to whoever has the best first party signals, we'll have wait to see. This is something to watch closely, but transferring third party data into first party data by having ecommerce on the platform through initiatives like Facebooks shops, and Instagram shopping can be the cure. Also, being in control of hardware mitigates this risk
Antitrust- generally not concerned
Privacy as a theme that is adversarial to advertising - slightly concerned but I don't think ad funded business models are going anywhere, many people like not paying for things
Might add more to this later...

RoyalRoad
Index
Previous
Next
If at this point you're wondering if McDonald's can compete on planets where the dominant species is vegetarian (assuming they don't rely on trader traffic), that is a legitimate concern. Enter McDonald's India. Proving once again that meat isn't a prerequisite for an unhealthy diet.
Zakabaran System
Zoron was in love with her new Terra Two. Well, technically it was a lightly used one by one of Earth's corporations, but it was new to her. She had recently traded in her old Terra One and a sizable chunk of change from her bank account for this baby, and it was worth every credit.
It was fast, agile, and most importantly, the larger cargo space meant that she was making more credits every trip.
At first, she stuck to the large, popular routes. They required plenty of volume trucking, and the profits were steady and decent. The risk of a fruitless trip was nonexistent. The galaxy always needed goods from Earth, and Earth always had plenty of surplus.
Then, as she got more familiar with the more powerful trader apps and tools built right into her Terra Two dashboard, Zoron realized that she could use it to graph market listings on Traders Only right onto her routes and optimize her credits income. It would find many smaller ports that were willing to pay high prices for their less fulfilled demands.
One of those routes goes through Zakabara. It wasn't Zakabara Prime; it was one of their colonies. She had briefly read and then ignored the ship computer which gave her a warning that there's a Galactic Union travel advisory for that area, blinked into the system, and started steering her ship in the direction of the main spaceport on Second.
Less than five minutes into sublight, she was interrupted by a 200 kilometer warning on her radar about another ship merging into her path. The face of a large parrot appeared on her viewscreen, screeching:
"Unknown human ship! This area is off limits to all non-Zakabaran traders! Cease engines and get ready for bo-!"
He hadn't even finished his diatribe when she hit the blink engine to Ganymede.
"Back again so soon, Zoron?" A new voice, a human this time, came through her ship communication channel as her face loaded onto her screen, "which froghead was it this time?" The humans had kept a token reserve force here as a form of galactic community service.
They didn't need to commit many ships; just a few to let the pirates know they meant business. That's if there were still any left dumb enough to follow traders through blink now that everyone knew that human ships gathered here.
"Not the Ribbiths, it was the bird faces," Zoron made a face, "I was on my way to Zakabara Second, which had several postings on the market, but apparently their authorities really don't like outsiders today. Which explains the high prices of goods there, I guess."
"Ah," the human nodded sympathetically, "we've gotten a couple reports like that so far, and one even reported they saw a trader shipwreck from someone who must have tried to run their blockade. Be careful out there!"
Gophor, Gakrek
Rey woke up to the smell of potatoes. That was a first.
As she entered the dining room, she saw Grood standing around the new rice cooker that they hooked up to a battery for her, frowning and trying very hard to read the English instructions.
"Did they forget to translate it to Gak? I can help you with that," Rey volunteered and accepted the manual from Grood. She leaned over and saw that Grood had put rice on the bottom and potatoes on a small basket on top, and confused she asked, "they look cooked already. Grood, what's wrong?"
"I read the numbers, and I thought it said to put one cup of water for one cup of rice on the bottom, press the button, and wait after the light changes color to green," Grood complained.
"Yeah," Rey said, confirming the instructions in the booklet, "you got everything right."
"But it ruined the rice!"
"You mean it's not drenched in water like the way you normally cook it? This is what rice looks like whenever I cook it."
Frowning and completely ignoring what Rey said last, Grood said, "I guess I'll just put more water in next time."
That won't work, Rey realized. Like most rice cookers, this one detects the water remaining in the pot to tell when to stop cooking and change the color indicator. Putting more water in will just make it cook slightly longer.
Then again, this might buy them one more meal of not having to eat wet rice, so instead she said, "sure, Grood, that sounds like a plan!"
Gordorker's Farm
While waiting for employee training to start, Rey and Enrico decided to pay a visit to what they foresee as a vital component of their future supply chain.
A classic McDonald's hamburger has six ingredients: beef patty, ketchup, pickle slices, onions, mustard, and of course, the bun.
Ketchup and mustard were relatively easy to import by the barrel. They had few additional cargo requirements, and could store for a long time. Additionally, they require a lot of industrial processing and artificial ingredients that you don't want to think about too much when you eat them. Rey did not even consider these as possibilities for sourcing on Gakrek.
The hardest to import was the beef patty because it required a freezer in the spaceship. Unfortunately, there were no cows yet on Gakrek due to the immense water and startup food requirements of cattle farming. So, they dismissed it as a target for localizing early on as well.
Pickle slices and onions were raw produce and thus simple to make, but they were also relatively easy to import in bulk. Onions can last for months on a shelf and longer in a freezer, whereas pickles will basically last forever, especially the ones that have been treated by the chemicals they use. These were items considered for importation in the long term.
The last ingredient, the bun, was incredibly easy to make due to how much wheat had been grown on Gakrek with the semi-dwarf strains that have been imported from Earth. Furthermore, it was present on almost every single item on their menu. Which was why they're driving into Gordorker's farm to try and see if they could get him and his children to work with their restaurant as a supplier.
Enrico noted that his farm had grown a lot since he last visited. When the famine hit this valley, many families didn't make it. There was no shortage of land for Gordorker to work, and the only real bottleneck for him at the time was that he couldn't farm that much land alone to begin with.
With the investments he made early on in farming equipment and the increasing number of free laborers he had as his children grew older, his growing areas increased in size every time Enrico came.
As they drove up to the house with their two imported Toyota trucks, a number of Gordorker's curious children gathered around them. They tried to peek under the canvas that Enrico had put over the back of his truck to see what he was bringing, but he shushed them away.
Following them out of the house were Gordorker and two of his daughters they recognized, Ghili and Garns.
"Hey Enrico," Gordorker called out, "and is that your new girlfriend my daughters keep talking about?"
"Haha, Gordorker, nice to see you again," Enrico nodded in greeting, "this is Rey, my boss. Rey, Gordorker."
"Nice to meet you too," Rey nodded as well climbing out of her truck, "I've heard a lot of nice things about you too."
"Good, come into the house and tell us why you drove all the way out here!"
After a bit of small talk and his daughter left to go back to work, Enrico got right on to business. "Gordorker, you probably have heard about the food store we built on the spaceport. We expect to sell a lot of hamburgers, and we want to make them with bread buns from your farm."
"Bread buns? Is that very different from the bread that Ghili and Garns make?" Gordorker asked. After all, he was a farmer, not a baker.
"No, they're actually very similar. The base ingredient is grounded wheat flour, which you produce in your farm," Rey answered, "and the yeast, butter, and other ingredients that Gakrek already cheaply imports in bulk from Earth."
"I see," Gordorker replied, and then after a while he asked, "so why can't my daughters just make those for you right now?"
"They already can. Bun bread is a little harder to sell to other Gaks who are used to other kinds of bread," Rey said, "but the bigger problem is that we want to make sure that our bread tastes the same for all of our hamburgers, which means we have to have enough of your buns to start with."
"Ah so we don't make enough?" Gordorker asked, understanding the problem right away. He had been dealing with scaling issues himself on his farm, so he has become more astute in that aspect. Then, he proposed, "that is no issue, I can get more of my kids making bread. We will deliver you more bun breads, no problem, as long as there is a good price for them."
Enrico smiled and said, "that's great Gordorker, and we appreciate that, but based on what I heard talking to Garns, your wood fired oven would never bake enough bread for us, even if all your children were sitting around it waiting for the bread to finish all day."
"So what are you proposing?" asked the frowning Gordorker.
"We want to help you upgrade your baking operation until your daughters can bake so much bread they run out of flour," Rey said, "and then we're going to help you upgrade your grain mill, so you can get more flour faster. And then we're going to help you upgrade your farm, so you produce enough wheat for enough buns to support not only our restaurant but every future McDonald's store that gets built for hundreds of miles around."
They brought Gordorker back out to Enrico's truck, where they unloaded a small industrial oven they'd strap onto the back of the truck. It ran on electricity, and one of the Bhak batteries that Enrico had acquired could power it.
"Ah, I see," Gordorker smiled and said, finally getting it, "you're here to sell me this oven so we can bake more bread buns to sell you."
"Got it in one," Enrico beamed, "this model here, including the battery and shipping, is 2,500 credits. Our partners in Chicago have generously decided to subsidize a lot of your upgrades with a grant, so it will only cost you 500."
Then, pointing at the five electric-powered mills connected to a single power strip also connected to a battery, he introduced, "and these are electric mills for grinding wheat down into flour. They cost 500 credits each, and so these five will cost you 500 after we help you pay for some of it."
"I see," Gordorker said, running the numbers in his brain. Knowing how honest Enrico is, he believed that the prices and the discounts were real, so he could in theory take these and turn around and sell them for much higher prices at the market… but that would be wrong, and he would be killing off a major business opportunity here. "I am very interested in this. How much bread would you be buying from us?"
Rey chuckled kindly and said, "you've almost got it, Gordorker, but not quite. This whole operation isn't about how much bread we can buy; it's about how much bread you can make. We'll buy every single one."
Some more explanation took place regarding the price of each bun, and incentives for hitting quality and quantity targets. Because Rey was basically gifting him most of the machinery, she could basically set his profits, but she didn't want to squeeze every cent of profit she could out of Gordorker.
The point here was to give him enough room to get started, and to allow him to make enough profit to keep growing year after year. And whatever reasonable price she set, it was going to be cheaper than transporting it from Earth.
The first local Gakrek bun breads would be delivered to the Golden Arches a couple of weeks after their opening.
"Oh yeah, and one more thing," Enrico said. He tossed his truck keys to a surprised Ghili watching the discussion, "get in the driver's seat. I'm going to teach you how to drive."
Outskirts of Gophor Spaceport
If Goha could mark her fortunes on a chart, it would be divided straight into two parts: before the humans arrived, and after. Things didn't go well before.
Her parents were farmers, as their parents were. They had noticed the dropping yields of their crops for decades due to soil-damaging dry farming practices that ended up eroding the soil of its nutrients and water, but they hadn't understood why things were that bad at the time.
Then, the drought and the dust storms hit.
At first, they had just enough family heirlooms and other high-value supplies to trade for food at the spaceport. Then, as the famine started, fewer and fewer traders came in with food at the market, until none came. They began to starve. Goha's parents made the choice that their children should live instead of them, so they fed Goha and her siblings with all the food they had remaining. Until they ran out of strength and dropped.
That didn't save her siblings, who also starved to death shortly after.
Goha survived on hunting, foraging, and then eventually eating tree bark to sustain herself in the wild until she was captured by rogue Gaks turned cannibals by the famine. They were getting ready to roast her when everything changed.
The humans saved her from them, and drove her to a nearby village that they supplied with plenty of food.
From there and from her visits to the spaceport, she learned from the alien volunteers from Earth. She was fed. She was taught to read and write. And when she went back to her parents' farm to cremate the dead bodies of her family, two of them went with her to help her grieve her loss.
James and Charlotte, two elderly retired farmers from Idaho, came with her to help her start a new life.
At first, Goha thought they just wanted to take over her farm and start growing food for themselves there. Which was fine by her. She wasn't sure she wanted to continue the family business, and the humans saved her life. She wasn't going to say no to them if they wanted to just grow some crops on the farm.
Then, they insisted on including her in the process, teaching her everything from proper soil management, to irrigation, to using the new tools that were starting to be sold by the vendors at the spaceport.
They grew potatoes. Of all the major crops the humans grew, it was the one that needed the least water, which suited the now dry climate of Gakrek just fine. They imported a breed from James and Charlotte's home, one that required a bit more care and fertilizer than other potato breeds, but produced big beautiful tubers.
The first harvest was great. They had enough potatoes to feed the entire village if they had to. Pretty soon, her neighbors started coming by to learn potato techniques from her human friends who were now living with her. They, too, started to grow potatoes.
Charlotte taught them how to avoid problems, like allowing a disease called blight to wipe out everyone's crop all at once. She wasn't sure this was going to become a problem on Gakrek given how dry it was. But as she would often say, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. They left spaces between the different farmlands to isolate potentially bad crops if they popped up.
When the relief volunteers and her human friends left, every farmer in the entire northern outskirts of Gophor were planting one strain of Idaho potatoes or another. They formed a farmer's association, where they shared information on market prices, new techniques, and took turns selling at the spaceport.
Goha settled into a routine. Things were going great. The humans made things better.
"The rice is ruined again!" Grood whined.
She had put more water into the rice pot as she said she would, to predictable results. Because the rice cooker cooked longer than it should have, some rice around the edges had even gotten crispy brown.
"Mmmm," Enrico said happily as he dug out some of the slightly burnt rice straight into his chewing mouth, "this is delicious, Grood. I don't know what you're talking about!"
Grood ignored him. She was busy reading the instruction manual to see if there were any hidden insights on it that she missed at first reading.
Gophor Spaceport
Goha was carrying a big wheelbarrow of potato crops to sell at the spaceport when she noticed the large new permanent structure next to the food tents with its golden arches on the outside.
She slowly read the sign in front of the store. It said, "GRAND OPENING NEXT WEEK" in Gak.
Curious, Goha walked into the store, where she noticed a lot of activity going on in the back of the store. A short plump Gak came out and approached her yelling, "we're not open yet! Come back next week!"
"What is opening next week?" Goha asked, recognizing him from somewhere. Ah, the food tent.
"Our restaurant!" he replied, "I'm Goripli by the way!"
"Yeah, you're the soda farmer," Goha recalled, "I'm Goha."
"Ah, of course, the potato vendor!" he said, smiling. He'd recognized her too and said, "I'm helping train some of our other employees in the kitchen, and we're going to have a great big opening next week and start selling food!"
"Oh, that's very interesting," Goha said politely. Then, what she read on the menu they were putting up piqued her actual interest. She asked, a little afraid of the answer, "fried potatoes? You're going to sell potatoes here too?"
Goha generally didn't mind competition from the other farmers; the Gaks had plenty of appetite for potatoes, and she sold more than enough to pad her growing credit balance. But she counted more than ten Gaks in the back and the colorful signs they were putting up looked like they were going to start selling A LOT of potatoes.
"Yeah! We import them from Earth," Goripli replied enthusiastically, "they come to us in frozen bags, and all we have to do is cook them!"
Goha was conflicted. On one hand, her potatoes were originally from Earth too, and she loved the humans. On the other hand, these guys weren't part of her farmer's association, and she didn't want to be put out of business by a bunch of new vendors from the spaceport.
"How much are you selling fried potatoes for?" she asked, stalling so she could get a handle on her thoughts.
"Well they're usually sold as part of a meal, but alone, they would be a little over 2 credits in our boxes," Goripli replied, pointing to a stack of small red boxes on a shelf in the back of the restaurant.
Goha internally breathed a sigh of relief. Two credits for that small container! That was at least twenty times the price of her potatoes. There's no way that other Gaks were going to buy their fried potatoes over hers in the food tent. She cautiously said, "that seems a bit pricey."
"Yeah, we have to import them all the way from Earth," he replied, "but I've heard Enrico say we're looking for suppliers for bread." His brain whirred while he connected some dots in there, and then added, "Goha, you sell potatoes! You should talk to Rey and Enrico, maybe they'll buy potatoes from you?"
"Buy potatoes from me? Why would they buy potatoes from me here and then sell them for so much more money right next doors? Who would buy that?" she asked. She'd never heard of this kind of business before, but she knew Enrico. If he was behind an idea, it was probably not a bad one.
"We cut and cook them for customers!" Goripli said. He was used to answering questions like these for the locals, "and expensive as the prices are, the traders from outer space have a lot of credits, and they will buy from us!"
"Anyway, wait here. I'm going to go get Enrico upstairs. Maybe he would be interested in your potatoes."
Enrico was showing two Gaks how to properly clean the nozzles on their soda fountain machines when Goripli came up, yelling at him from the stairs, "hey Enrico, there's a potato farmer downstairs."
"A potato farmer?" he asked, confused.
"Yeah," Goripli replied, "didn't you say last week the imported fried potatoes were costing us many credits because they need to be frozen in the spaceship? She's a local farmer, and she sells for much less."
Okay, that is a frightening amount of initiative for a soda merchant turned fast food worker, Enrico thought to himself. Then he said, "alright, I'm coming."
Upon seeing Goha, Enrico's eyes lit up, "ah, it's Goha, isn't it? Nice to see you again."
"Hi Enrico," she blushed. She didn't expect the human to remember her name. "Goripli said you're going to start selling potatoes here too?"
Sensing her trepidation, he quickly replied, "fried potatoes. We're not selling potatoes like you. We're going to sell fried ones to traders already cooked so they can just grab lunch here."
"Ah," she replied, her fears mildly assuaged and sensing opportunity, "Goripli said you might be interested in buying my potatoes to cook, I think?"
"Hmmm, we need a lot of potatoes, yes, but we buy them in bulk from Earth. We don't do small volume. So unless you have a lot more potatoes to sell and we get a machine to cut them…" Enrico trailed off, hoping she'd get the message.
"I see," Goha said, "how much is bulk?"
North Gophor Farmers Association Meeting
"… and so I did some math on the number of potatoes we grow," Goha concluded, "and we have enough that they would buy from us if we pooled all of our harvests together and sold it to them together."
The concept of wholesaling was new to many of the dozens of farmers at the meeting. Most of the time, the way they did business was they just brought a big sack of potatoes to the food tents at the spaceport, sold it all one by one, and then went home.
The idea that they wouldn't have to wait all day at the vendor tents, that they could just dump it all to a single willing buyer… it was an attractive one. Even if it would mean giving up their opportunity to haggle for a higher price with every customer.
"How much are they offering us?" one farmer asked.
"It's not a fixed set price for each bag of potatoes. Enrico said they would set the price at a point where we would make a profit," Goha replied honestly, echoing his words from earlier.
There was a murmur through the crowd. This was crazy. Let the buyers set the price? Even if it was Enrico, which many of them knew… There's no way that this is a legitimate enterprise, some thought.
"This sounds like a scam," a farmer said, "they'll just pay us the least amount of money possible!"
"Yeah! How are we supposed to run a business without knowing how much money they're going to pay us?" another farmer asked the question that was on everyone's minds.
"It's called an open-book contract," Goha repeated. She wasn't entirely sold on the idea at first, but came around to it when Enrico explained more of how it worked, "we tell them how much it cost us to grow potatoes, and they pay us twice that amount when we hand them the goods."
Some of the objections died down as the farmers started calculating their costs and normal pricing strategies. They could double their initial investment! Every harvest possibly. Many farmers got more serious about the offer. It meant that as long as Enrico's restaurant bought from them, it was unlikely that they wouldn't make a larger profit, even in a below average year. Especially in a below average year.
"And you say they'll buy all our potatoes?" one hesitant farmer asked.
"They have a rule that all the potatoes have to be longer than your paws because they want to cut long strips out of them," Goha gestured with an open paw, "but other than that, Enrico said he would take as many potatoes as we can grow."
"How would they know whether we're telling the truth about how much it cost us to grow the potatoes?" one particularly devious farmer asked slyly, oblivious to the disapproving glares some of his fellow farmers were throwing his way.
"Gomin!" one of his neighbors called out, "If you try to cheat the humans and drive away our business, we're going to be the first to come burn down your farm!"
And so, it was decided for most of them. There were more negotiations with the restaurant regarding the logistics of when and how the potatoes were to be delivered, and they had to import a cutting machine to quickly cut strips of fries out of the potatoes, but they had gotten the supply chain replacement approved in Chicago.
The first local Gakrek potatoes would be delivered to the Golden Arches a couple of months after their opening.
"Aha, I figured it out," Grood claimed triumphantly.
Rey looked over at her dinner. It was, as expected, wet rice. She wasn't sure how that was possible with the foolproof rice cooker that Enrico had gotten Grood. It had specifically been a model that vented the steam in a way that made wet rice impossible. They were both tired of porridge. She asked warily, "how'd you manage it, Grood?"
"It's simple. I figured out how this machine works! It keeps cooking until all the water is gone, so it always comes out too dry," Grood explained, waving her spatula around like a teacher, "all you have to do is put in twice the amount of water it says to. And then, you wait until it's half done cooking off all the water, and you lift the lid…"
Rey saw Enrico repeatedly slap his palm up into his forehead right next to her.
It must be a law of nature, she realized. It is physically impossible to create a cooking device that prevents a Gak from making rice the way they wanted to.
"The potatoes will arrive in a couple of months," Enrico said as he laid down on his straw mat, "the farmers are gonna sell us all that they can grow."
"Good," Rey replied, "and they can keep the small ones for themselves to sell to other Gaks."
"Right, they've got enough of those that there won't be another famine if there's a bad harvest year again. And we gotta find a way to boost their production because what they have is barely enough for our restaurant, not to mention the other franchises headquarters mentioned they were looking at."
After a bit of silent pondering in her head, Rey said, "I can't sleep," turning on her side to face Enrico, "what if nobody shows up when we open tomorrow?"
"We did everything we possibly could, right?" he asked.
"Yeah, I think so," she said, still fretting, "all our preparations should be in place but what if only fifty people showed up-"
"Then it's out of our hands," Enrico said sleepily and yawned hard. It had been a long day of negotiations and training the employees for him.
"Hold my hand," Rey said as she snaked her arm out of her sleeping bag and extended it towards him. Enrico took it in his warm palms, and threaded his fingers into hers. They both laid like that for a while.
A few minutes of staring at the ceiling, Rey asked, "Enrico, when all this calms down, do you think-" She looked over at him shyly, trying to decide what to say next.
He was already asleep.
Langley, Earth
"Isn't this kind of what we want to see?" Cathy asked, frowning at the report in front of her. There was a map of hundreds of armed Zakabaran ships dotted throughout their system and subsequent pages detailing coordinates and general specifications of every single ship they had. "If they're preparing for war with someone, wouldn't there be more ships staging outside the system? Many of these don't even appear to have FTL drives…"
"Look closer at where their deployments are in their system," Mark said.
She took another look. There were a few ships loitering around Prime, whereas the remaining of them are clustered around…
"Their colony! They're getting ready to start a war with their own colony?" Cathy asked, astonished.
"Well, it wouldn't be a war. The guys on the colony don't have military ships," Mark said, "this is looking more like it'll be an occupation for the Primers to ensure that their colony doesn't just keep funneling their goods and credits out of the system into the rest of the galaxy."
"And we can't exactly intervene now after we explicitly promised not to do so at the Galactic Union," Cathy summed up in a disappointed tone, "not that we would have done much anyway given that it is their colony still. When do we expect the siege to start?"
"If what we're hearing from the traders is accurate, they're already blockading the space above Zakabara Second," Mark sighed, "that's why they even bothered to disclose their deployments."
"Isn't blockading another planet considered an act of war explicitly banned by the Galactic Union? How does this even work if they're the same species?"
"That," Mark said ominously, "is the million credit question…"
The McDonald's anecdotes for economic development and supply chain building from this chapter and last were adapted from a management paper from Wharton called "McDonald's — Much Maligned, but an Engine of Economic Development" along with some additional digging in the WSJ and NYT.
One of my readers also directed my attention to a series of YouTube videos called Food Theory. I recommend that as well.
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What with the current fascination with sea shanties and sea songs, I figured that some folks might be interested in trying out the musical instruments of Western sailors of the 1800s and early 1900s. While a classic shanty tended to be sung just with vocals, sailors played a variety of musical instruments popular in their eras, and in the Folk Revivals of the mid 1900s, lots of musicians did fine work adding instrumentation to the old tunes.
Maybe you’re an experienced musician looking to try a new sound after discovering sea songs, or maybe you’ve never played a note and hearing these great old tunes has inspired you to learn. In whatever case, in this little write-up I’m going to lay out some of the traditional instruments of the era which were favored by sailors, and explain for each how affordable and easy to learn they can be, and link you in some examples to listen to and places to learn more about each instrument.
I’m not a PhD musicologist, but I do have a lot of research background, been playing traditional music for over 30 years, and have a general handle on the scene and the era. And I have for over a decade done little projects online to encourage people to push their boundaries and break away from the mainstream by trying musical instruments beyond the most common ones. Being entranced by a new genre of music is a fine time to further expand your horizons by taking up an instrument and making music yourself.

WINDS * Tinwhistle * Flute (and piccolo and fife) * Trumpet
STRINGS * Guitar * Banjo (and banjo ukulele) * Fiddle * Mandolin * Ukulele
FREE REEDS * Harmonica * Concertina * Melodeon/Button Accordion * (Toy Accordion/Melodeon)
PERCUSSION * Drums * (Bodhrán)
NOT TRADITIONAL SAILOR INSTRUMENTS, BUT WOULD SOUND AWESOME WITH SHANTIES * Appalachian/Mountain dulcimer * Udu or Ibo drum * Bagpipe * Electronic Instruments
I will note before we begin, especially in the budget category, there are some real bargains but plenty of junk, so please use this article as a starting point, but read up a little on best buys. Don’t just say “oh, I dig Irish flute, and I see a new one on eBay for $50, sounds like a bargain!” and buy it without doing a little research, or you’ll get stuck wasting time and money on unplayable junk. All the more so for used instruments, which can offer great savings, but you really want to buy from a reputable dealer or a musician, or have an ironclad strategy for DIY repair, lest you get something too out of whack to learn on and too pricey to repair. Plenty of bargains, just don’t get impulsive, do just a little research before each purchase and you’ll be glad you did. There are online communities full of geeks like me for each of these instruments, who'd be happy to chat with you about choosing a good one for your money, and how you can best learn to play.
We’re looking largely at the instruments of seafaring European (and diaspora) folk of the 1800s and early 1900s, which you can note largely resembled the instruments of the working class on land, farmers and city laborers, just with an eye towards durability and portability at sea. Fortunately, many of these instruments are relatively affordable, intuitive to learn (they had to be, to catch on with a largely illiterate population that just wanted to get to playing music without fuss), and often rugged and compact for travel. I realized after I finished this article that all these instruments can be learned by ear and video without formal written study, and (with the exception of fiddle) beginner tutorials for them are written in “tablature” (numbers that say where your fingers go) rather than sheet music, making them even easier to learn for total novices.
WINDS
Wind instruments had the huge advantage of being relatively compact, simple, and affordable, and some of them had a dual purpose for signaling or for military music, or just being heard above the noise of work and waves to keep a rhythm for work or dancing.
Tinwhistle
A tinwhistle is a small metal pipe with six finger-holes, and a whistle-like mouthpiece that directs the breath onto a sharp edge that produces the note. Like a referee’s whistle but with control of the notes.
The great thing about tinwhistle is you can get a totally serviceable instrument for literally $9 or so; they’re just that cheap to make. There are professional Irish musicians who spend decades playing $9 whistles (often doing a little fine-tuning on their own to smooth them out), so they’re by no means just toys. Even if you aren’t in a hurry to learn, honestly at that price you might as well pick one up next time you’re shopping online, and give it a whirl. An instrument you could own for life for the price of a decent 6-pack. The subreddit tinwhistle can provide advice and resources, and off-Reddit there’s the specialized Chiff and Fipple Forum.
If you buy a tinwhistle as a beginner, absolutely get one in the Key of D (the most common key), because 99% of teaching materials are for D, the common key for Irish music. (You'll notice an Irish crossover trend in much of this advice). There are some tutorials for shanties online, but honestly best bet would be to use some of the tutorials for Irish tunes just to learn the basics, and then you’ll swiftly be able to transition to learning other genres by ear.
"Drunken Sailor" tinwhistle duet with concertina
Flute (including piccolo and fife)
The flute is of course a tube where you blow across a hole to make a note. Most of us have seen the classical flute in videos, silver with all those fancy mechanical keys, but the flutes of the 1800s were largely wooden and had few or no keys, just open finger-holes like the tinwhistle. In the modern day, such “simple flutes” are largely associated with folk music, especially Irish, so there are plenty on the market, including affordable ones made of synthetic materials or metals. Just don't be seduced by import "rosewood" cheapies, they're junk, one made of PVC pipe by an actual musician would be a better buy than those wall-hangers.
I made a post on Chiff and Fipple asking about affordable flutes and fifes, and got some good options under $50 for some really simple plastic tube instruments of decent make, and some finer Irish flutes turned from synthetics around $250. Flutes come in a variety of sizes, but like tinwhistles the easiest way to learn is using Irish music tutorials and then adding nautical repertoire once you have the basics down, so again probably get Key of D.
You can get a Low D flute about 2 feet long, or a High D flute (known as a fife or piccolo, or band flute) an octave above, the same rough size and pitch as a tinwhistle, just different method of blowing. The Low D instruments are pretty similar to each other, but for High D ("fife/piccolo/band flute") note some are "true fifes" made to play best at very high pitches for fife and drum music, others are meant to play smoothly at their lowest register, identical in range to a tinwhistle. So mind that distinction and ask the experts if you aren't sure which model suits your vision.
Dixon Irish flute duet with cittern (large mandolin cousin)
Modern high-quality Irish keyless piccolo
Trumpet
In my poring over old engravings and photographs, I was struck by how many showed sailors playing various trumpet-type instruments in the late 1800s, which kind of makes sense given the cultural crossover with military Naval traditions, and the volume of a trumpet which helps cut through wind and noise for signaling or dance music. I’m sure there are a zillion good write-ups on buying a basic trumpet (from $100-300), so I’ll leave you go google those or visit Trumpet.
But personally reading up for this article got even me thinking about trying my hand at a little brass. I'm honestly torn between getting one of the novel plastic "brass" instruments made for learners like pTrumpet or jHorn (around $100) because I like innovative design, or carefully buying an okay-quality used brass instrument (after consulting experts) for similar price. But I bet a whaler would've loved a plastic one if they'd been available in 1863.
"Wellerman" on trumpet
STRINGS
Guitar
In my survey of period imagery, I did indeed find some images of men at sea playing guitar, but do bear in mind that guitar in the 1800s and early 1900s was nowhere near as omnipresent as it is today, and in different forms. Plenty of other instruments were far more popular, up until the mid-1900s where guitar really became a go-to choice in the West. Note too that steel strings on guitars, as well as larger body sizes, didn’t show up much until the early 1900s, so for much of this period those who played guitar played smaller body instruments, with gut strings (nowadays nylon strings sound almost like gut but are massively more durable and affordable).
That said, tons of musicians in the Folk Revivals of the 1900s played a modern large guitar with steel strings and sounded great, so it really depends what tradition and sound you want to imitate. Again there are thousands of write-ups on taking up guitar, and plethora of new and used models, steel strings or nylon, all sizes, so I’ll leave that to you to Google or hit up LearnGuitar.
But I would encourage you to keep an open mind to guitar types to get a little more unusual flair in your musical stylings, break away from the crowd a bit. If you’re an experienced strings player, if you want to get that droning and modal sound you hear in shanties, try tuning your current guitar to the Drop D or DADGAD tunings (see DADGAD), also popular in Irish music, and I think you’ll like your results.
And if you’re a novice considering starting on guitar, I’m one of those people who believes that 2 months on a $50 ukulele and then four months on a guitar gets you further ahead than 6 months on a guitar alone, because uke is just so much more accessible for the total beginner. (Plus you’ll end up having a spare uke to carry where your guitar is inconvenient and left at home.) So if you’re considering guitar, check ukulele and ponder whether a uke of some sort could be an affordable and easy initial stage to launch your studies.
Irish jig on guitar in DADGAD tuning
"Drunken Sailor" on nylon-strung guitar
Banjo
The banjo is an instrument developed by American enslaved people, inspired by related instruments they’d known in Africa. By the mid 1800s, the banjo had crossed demographic lines and become hugely popular with European-Americans and spread to other countries, far more popular than the guitar was at the time. It was the go-to plucked string instrument for much of the 1800s.
If you’re looking to take up banjo, know that the banjos of this period had a different sound and playing style than the modern bluegrass instrument, so set aside your stereotypes and listen to some recordings of “Old Time” banjo rather than the bluegrass and country licks you’re used to hearing in soundtracks. These banjos were less piercing, mellower, and a more languid style. And much like on guitars, steel strings were less common, gut being typical and having a much softer sound (today we have nylon options). So when you go reading up “how to choose a banjo” articles or visiting Banjo (or BanjoHangout.com), look for an “open back” banjo rather than one with the heavy metal ring around the head (“resonator”) which makes it louder and sharper for bluegrass.
If you want to get really traditional, and sound softer and be easier on your fingers, spend $9 to get nylon (imitating gut) strings for a much less cliché and smoother sound. (Just note nylon strings stretch like crazy for a few days until they break in and stabilize, be patient.) Speaking of sound, absolutely don’t fall into trying to learn the modern “three-finger” or “Scruggs” style of play, which is a post-WWII styling, but read up on the old “clawhammer” or “frailing” style of play, which sounds entirely different and may pleasantly surprise you if you thought you don’t like banjo.
"Wellerman" on 5-string banjo, played clawhammer style
Nylon strings on a fretless banjo, just to show a very different sound
I will briefly mention some banjo variants other than the 5-string type we’re mostly familiar with. There is also the “tenor banjo” which has four strings, lacking that shortened fifth string off to the side on the currently popular banjos. A tenor banjo is tuned differently: depending on what strings you’re using (and you can swap the strings out for about $10) it’s tuned either like a violin/mandolin, or like a guitaukulele, so those skills cross over well, and is slightly shorter than the common 5-string.
Three Irish reels on a tenor banjo
And if you want a banjo that to one degree isn’t as historically associated with sailors, but to the other is actually surprisingly similar to the smaller and mellower banjos of the early 1800s, there’s the “banjo ukulele” hybrid which is quite affordable and easy to learn.
Frankly, if this is your first instrument and you want banjo, I’d get a banjo ukulele first rather than a 5-string, because they’re just so affordable (decent ones start around $100 new) and handy and easy to learn, and very mellow, not like the cliché sound you’d expect. And though they lack the fifth string, in the last decade or so a ton of YouTube uke experts have been developing the “clawhammer ukulele” style of play. It works impressively well on ukulele or banjo ukulele (which are played the exact same way, same online tutorials apply, they just have a different body and thus sound).
"Leave Her Johnny, Leave Her" on banjo ukulele, clawhammer style
Fiddle
The “fiddle” is physically basically the same as a violin, just played in a folk rather than classical style. There are probably millions of violins bouncing around the world, including plenty of used deals, but you really want to read up on how to find a good deal on a new or used one, because violins are a little finicky. I would also say that unless you’re extremely motivated or getting a Zoom teacher, I wouldn’t advise fiddle as your very first instrument. Because they lack frets and learning to use a bow is its own distinct skill, they have a bit of a steep initial learning curve. So you maybe want to learn a little ukulele or mandolin (which has the same fingering as fiddle) before jumping in. But that said, if you just love fiddle and are ambitious, or already have a little strings background, by all means dive on in. Learn it in standard tuning, but once you get the basics down, try "open tunings" for shanties and the like. Hit up Fiddle for advice.
The fiddle was a hugely popular instrument from the 1700s up to the mid-1900s before falling off sharply heading into the rock ‘n’ roll era. With fiddle you can cover a huge variety of historical musical traditions.
"Blow Boys Blow" on fiddle, while singing (something you don’t see classical violinists do)
Mandolin
This originally Italian instrument took on a wider popularity in the Western world around the late 1800s and early 1900s, again being more popular than guitar in many areas during that period. A mandolin has the chording ability of the guitar but the melodic dexterity of a fiddle, is nice and compact especially compared to a large modern guitar, and can be bought in a passable starter model as low as ~$99. Though if you can stretch to a budget of more like $300, you’ll really appreciate the improvement.
Plenty of used ones floating around, though buy those from a musician or reputable dealer, not from randos on eBay with something they pulled out of a closet from ages ago. Mandolins are under very high tension, and older ones that are low quality or mistreated can be warped or cracked in ways a novice can’t easily notice, but that make them unsuitable to be played. Don't jump on the first "bargain" you see, mando is common enough that you'll see bargains every other day, don't get impulsive, get advice from mandolin players online.
I will note that although mandolin had a narrower time and place of popularity than banjo or especially fiddle, it closely resembles even earlier instruments like the “English guitar”, “cittern” and “Portuguese guitar” that were more widespread, so can serve as a partial stand-in for a number of centuries and locales. Plenty of good information at mandolin awaits you if you want to take up mando.
Beginner mandolins are pretty affordable, and it's not too hard to learn, but it will take time for your hands to adjust and toughen up your finger pads. If you want to try mandolin tuning on an even more affordable instrument and with less string tension, you can get a basic starter ukulele and get Aquila's "Fifths" strings for ukulele (make sure to get the size that corresponds to the size of your uke) for $5-10 and string it in GDAE or CGDA, and then the fingerings would cross directly over to mandolin or mandola.
"Salt Water Shanty" tune on the mandolin
An example of the related "Portuguese guitar", shared between England and Portugal by the sea trade, played on the docks of Lisbon for "fado" music
"Bach 1st Cello Suite" on a ukulele re-strung to CGDA
Ukulele
The ukulele is based on traditional Portuguese small guitar-like instruments, and was introduced to the Hawaiian Islands in 1879 when the SS Ravenscrag brought over Portuguese immigrants in 1879. The instrument caught the imaginations of the local Hawaiians, and some Portuguse woodworkers who'd just arrived capitalized on that trend and began producing a local version. So certainly sailors coming and going from Hawaiian ports had a chance to become familiar with the instrument.
The ukulele is one of the easiest string instruments to play, and the skills cross directly over to guitar and other instruments. If you're new to strings I would highly suggest getting a $50-99 ukulele first to get used to strings, and then decide your best move. As noted above, a uke can be an excellent stand-in for guitar, banjo, or mandolin (especially if restrung in fifths).
"Wellerman" on a regular $40 ukulele, conventional strumming and sounding awesome
"5 Sea Shanties on Ukulele", a really great and crystal-clear tutorial for noobs by Destiny Guerra
Ukulele has a shanty contest recently, might want to check out the submissions by other Redditors of shanties on ukulele
FREE REEDS
The name “free reeds” might sound confusing, but it basically just means things like the accordion and harmonica (which despite looking so different, are close cousins). On common reed instruments like saxophone or oboe, the air tube has one reed (a flexible tongue that produces a note as it vibrates when air flows over it) that makes the core pitch, and by opening holes to change the functional length of the tube you change the note. In contrast, with free reeds, you have an array of individual reeds that always make the same note, and you choose which note(s) to play by directing air over them with a button (accordion) or by moving it against your mouth (harmonica)
Harmonica
I think most folks are familiar with the basic concept of a harmonica, so I’ll just note there are a harmonicas at every price range, all kinds of keys (and ones in minor scales and such), and a lot of harmonica players own a whole stack of them to have a variety. While there are playable ones for like $10, aim for about $25-35 or more for your first one, if able, rather than going totally cheap, just so you aren’t held back as you’re trying to learn. There are a ton of free harmonica tutorials online, and books you can buy, and harmonica to advise, so you can’t go too wrong.
The modern harmonica was invented in the 1800s (based in concept on centuries-old instruments of Southeast Asia encountered by travelers). Hohner started mass-producing barge-fulls of them in Germany shortly after the American Civil War, and exporting them to the US. While maybe we don’t think of harmonicas as a sailor thing, they were an omnipresent affordable and pocket-sized instruments, surely familiar to sailors of the period.
"Drunken Sailor" on a less-common minor-key harmonica
"Wellerman" tutorial on standard harmonica
Concertina
The association between sailors and concertina is so strong as to be almost cliché, due in large part to Hollywood portrayal, like sea shanty concertinist Alf Edwards cameoing in 1965’s “Moby Dick". The concertina is basically like a small hexagonal accordion, but a simpler and less raucous sound due to (usually) only one reed per note, and every button is an individual note rather than some buttons being chords.
Concertina is pretty intuitive to play, and there are some good free tutorials online. For a novice interested in sea shanties you probably want the “Anglo” style (different notes on push and pull, like a harmonica or melodeon). Commonly people buy the 30-button Anglo, because most concertina buyers play Irish music and you want 30 for that. But for shanties and other simple folk, you can do well with a 20-button (which can also play most Irish), which tend to be a little cheaper. I would really give a pass to the $150-200 China-made ones on Amazon and eBay, and go for at least $299 or so for a new 20b or used 30b. (Or hit up Cnet's sales subforum to ask if anyone has a bargain 20b for a noob).
While Anglo is hands-down the traditional choice of sailors, in the Folk Revivals, for whatever reason (lots of them cheap in pawnshops?) a lot of folk musicians took up the English-system concertina. The English externally looks similar but has the same note on push and pull of the bellows, so totally different playing style. Some of the most famous shanty players of the 1960s-1970s (like the fantastic Alf Edwards mentioned above) played English, which in the actual sailing days was the instrument of the wealthy, not laborers.
But y’all are in luck, because I’m a mod at Concertina and have written a pretty comprehensive Concertina FAQ and Buying Guide for novices, the sub itself can help advise with any questions, and for serious experts or to shop an active buy/sell forum for bargains, visit Concertina.net Forums.
Note for both concertina and melodeon (button accordion), “Appcordions” produces free or cheap apps for your phone or tablet which emulate concertina (Anglo, English, or Duet fingering systems) or button accordion. The apps take a little getting used to, but are fun to try out the concept before committing. Read the instructions or watch a tutorial for each to understand how to emulate bellows direction changes on an app, and they're better on tablet than phone, but passable on phone.
Modern shanty "Grogg Mayles" played on Anglo concertina (note the constant back-forth to change notes)
A. L. Lloyd singing “Off to Sea Once More” backed up by Alf Edwards on English concertina (Lloyd is my favorite shantyman of all time, and Edwards so gorgeous on English that I forgive him the heresy of passing up Anglo)
Melodeon (Button Accordion)
When modern people think “accordion” they tend to think the huge ones with a piano keyboard, such as played by Weird Al. But for much of the 1800s and early 1900s, the dominant accordion was the “melodeon” (Americans tend to call them a “button accordion”) which is generally smaller, and has one, two, or three rows of buttons instead of a piano keyboard. Like the Anglo concertina or the harmonica, a given melodeon button produces a different note when you change air direction, which means that notes that make a chord line up together, making it very intuitive to play.
There are hordes of melodeons on the used market, but ones hauled out of a closet after 40 years of no play can need hundreds of dollars of refurbishment by a skilled technician. So again don’t go buying from randos on eBay, but buy from an actual player, or reputable dealer (many of whom buy the tore-up rando ones cheap on eBay, fix them up and flip them at reasonable prices). Figuring out the good deals can be daunting to a novice, so I went to Melodeon.net and got a detailed discussion going resulting in somewhat of a novice buyer’s guide for sea shanties that you might find easier to digest.
With some hunting around the various reputable dealers, and Melodeon.net’s sales section, you can find a decent melodeon as low as $250-350 (easier still in the UK or EU where melodeon is more common). Also check out the small sub Melodeon (we may add a sticky or wicki to link dealers of affordable refurbished button accordions). Fortunately shanty players are less picky about specific keys and models, so can get some good deals on less-fashionable variants other musicians are slow to buy.
High Barbary on 2.5-row melodeon, voice and fiddle
"Bully in the Alley" tutorial on 2-row D/G melodeon
Addendum: “Toy” Accordions (Melodeons)
I will address one kind of intriguing and highly affordable option for learning the basics on melodeon. There’s a little 7-button job called a “toy accordion” made in China (the button kind, not piano kind), sold on all the major online retailers. It isn’t so much really a "toy" as it is a small functional instrument but of kinda middling materials and iffy quality control, but it is a genuine musical instrument. Funnily enough, a small and shoddy mass-produced melodeon was exactly what laborers and sailors of the mid to late 1800s played, churned out of factories in Germany at prices so low they were practically disposable. Ironically the “toy” is arguably the historically authentic option, in spirit.
I don’t want to sound like I’m shilling for Amazon, I don’t even have affiliate links to them on my YouTube channel (maybe someday), but I’m telling you now that Amazon or equivalent is a good place to get a toy accordion. That way you can buy a model and from a seller with the best reviews, and (this is vital) one with “free returns”. The QC on these is iffy, so if you get a lemon it’s great to be able to put it right back in the box, click “return” on the app, and it gets picked up off your porch or you drop it off at a local business that processes Amazon returns. And if you like you can even just re-order it with your refund until they get it right.
These “toys” run about $20-40 (I just bought an EastaMugig, and it seems pretty decent and ready to tweak), so just pick one with good reviews, ensure it has free returns, and give it a whirl. Or if you really want to cut to the chase, there are accordion “fettlers” (repairers) who will just gut a toy for you and put quality reeds in it. Currently Smythe’s Accordions is the main shop I know of doing this in the US, and will put in quality reeds in the key of your choice, into a Russian toy accordion (better quality), if you want to spend $200.
Now, if you get one into your paws that plays okay and you want to keep it, I suggest immediately opening it up and making some minor tweaks. This is one of those things all the melodeon folks casually mention and afaik nobody has bothered to make a proper tutorial on (I hope to shortly for my YouTube channel), but you can make these substantially better with very little skill. Basically put, you got seven buttons, with two notes per button, and two reeds per note to give it a tremolo/echo effect. The issue is those doubled reeds use up a lot of air, and your bellows are small, and one reed will always be more in-tune than the other. So you get some really basic tools and masking tape, pour a beer or soda, carefully open it (they’re pretty sturdy if you get a good one) and identify the two reeds for each note, lay down masking tape along one to silence it. While you’re in there, if you can identify any reeds that aren’t sounding properly, they’re probably clogged with dust, and you can google up how to carefully slide something thin like a dollar bill under the tongue to knock the dust loose and allow it to sound. Tape off one of each pair, assemble it and try it, and if a given note (now one reed per note) sounds off, make a note of which, disassemble and switch the tape from the other reed and see if the other one sounds better.
It’ll take some futzing, but no major skill and no permanent changes (do it carefully so you can still return it if it just won’t shape up). If you get it right, now it’ll be using half as much air so way easier to play, and if you like there are many other little tweaks to adjust button play, fix bellows leaks, and all that, all pretty low-skill. But fundamentally for $20-40 you can have a kinda shoddy yet effective little melodeon, much like the sailors of old, on which you can accompany sea songs.
Drunken Sailor on a decent yet stock toy accordion
Irish polkas on a toy accordion that’s been fitted with quality reeds
PERCUSSION
Looking at old sailor imagery, you generally see small snare drums and bass drums, and there seems to be a large crossover between those on civilian ships and similar ones played in the British and American navies of the era. If you’re a real stickler you can get “rope-tuned” old-school wooden snare and small bass drums (sold for fife and drum reenactors), or make do with modern used marching-band instruments.
I do want to note there is one kind of drum that’s relatively recent in tradition and wouldn’t really have been played by shanty-era sailors, but sounds absolutely amazing with shanties if you aren’t a stickler: the Irish bodhrán. It’s a relatively shallow circular shell with one drum head, held in one hand and the other hands holds a double-headed stick (like a little kayak paddle) and virtuosically skips it off the drum head in rhythmic patterns. It's pretty cool, but if you get one, learn it proper because eager noobs not bothering to learn skill and just whacking on it are a cliche in the Irish trad scene. Bodhran is tiny but has some good links, and you can always ask and see who answers.
Daniel Payne of Newfoundland sings “Wind Through the Window” while backing himself on bodhrán
NOT TRADITIONAL SAILOR INSTRUMENTS, BUT WOULD SOUND AWESOME WITH SHANTIES
I want to briefly discuss one instrument from each category that aren’t strictly historical to seafarers, but really fit in with the spirit of shanties. These would be great retcons, and one very modern wildcard at the end.
Appalachian/Mountain dulcimer
The dulcimer was likely a French or German instrument acquired by the rural folks in the Appalachian mountains of the US, and worked into the local tradition due to its simplicity. It’s a long wooden box played in the lap, tuned to open tunings, with only partial fretting, which makes it ridiculously easy to learn and accompany yourself on. I like to joke that it's the "Celtic sitar."
I taught quite a few workshops on the dulcimer for groups, and it’s about one of the easiest fretted string instruments to learn. They’re pretty affordable (you can get cardboard-bodied [seriously, they work] ones around $50, basic wooden ones around $100, ask around at dulcimer) and they have that droning and dark sound that would go great with shanties.
"Skye Boat Song" on dulcimer
Udu or Ibo drum
This percussion instrument, originating in West Africa, is a clay pot (some modern makers use synthetics) that is drummed upon, and capable of some really cool percussive sounds. Can produce a surprising number of tonal effects, I think of it as the "African tabla." Runs about $100+ for the basic synthetic models by Meinl, which are lighter and more durable than ceramic. LP makes durable ceramic ones from about $75. See the very tiny sub Udu for more info, or ask the larger community at drums.
Udu/Ibo drum solo
Bagpipe
Check your stereotypes, the Great Highland bagpipe associated with marching around in kilts (which is awesome in its own way) is only one of about 100 kinds of bagpipes, from Ireland to India and Sweden down to Libya. The Highland Pipe is loud and piercing, so not really great vocal accompaniment, but among the many other pipes are several which play at an indoor volume and lower pitch.
Among the ones I’d most recommend to someone starting pipes, in terms of affordability (roughly around $400-$500 for basic ones of these three, some bargains come in lower), availability, volume, compactness, versatility, etc. would be the Scottish Smallpipes (quieter and a full octave deeper in pitch than Highland), the Swedish bagpipes, and the German hümmelchen.
More than any other instrument on this list, for bagpipes I urge you to beware "too good to be true" deals. The reason is there is one specific outfit in Pakistan that has been turning out virtually unplayable bagpipes for export for decades, and they're all over Amazon and eBay for $100-200. They are not "well, I'll try a cheapie first and see if I want to get a nice one", they are total garbage, and the company is run by jerks because they could make a serviceable pipe in Pakistan by paying their workers 10% more and instead opt to turn hopeful noobies off piping forever with a "maybe it's a good starter" that's just trash. There are definitely good deals in piping (mainly some innovators working in synthetics, and some craftsmen in Eastern Europe with low costs of living), but the specific Pakistan pipes exported by a certain cynical company are omnipresent and a total waste. But the good news is with the slightest research you can avoid them and get some good starter pipes at reasonable price.
Give those three types of bagpipes (or others too) a listen, see what jumps out at you, drop by Bagpipes to discuss.
"Mingulay Boat Song" on Scottish smallpipes (bellows blown so the piper has breath to sing)
"Polska efter Nedergårds Lars" on Swedish bagpipes
"A Cascarexa" (Galician waltz) on hümmelchen
Electronic Instruments (maybe on your tablet or even phone to be cheap)
I’m sure many of you have seen techno remixes of "Wellerman" and whatnot, so though clearly in history those far post-date the shanty era, they do sound awfully cool (in some cases). So don’t be too shy to lay down some drum and bass lines and sing over them. There are various electronic boxes and knobs you can buy to do so, but these days a lot of what used to be $500 of fancy electronics are now emulated on your phone or tablet. Go mess with the free music apps, or read reviews and pay $10 for a good one, and get some beats going.
If you want to try out a free iOS app that's pretty intuitive for making beats, as a total novice in electronic music I've enjoyed the free phone app Figure.
Korg iKaossilator laying down drum and bass lines

By @aaacommie (previously stevia_potatohead) on Instagram | @stalynn07 on Twitter.
Firstly, the Modi Government is an embarrassment on its own. https://m.thewire.in/article/external/narendra-modi-delhi-riots-global/amp?__twitter_impression=true Now let's get into the reasons why everyone should oppose this party of genocidal maniacs. Major trigger warning for many of these. (r@pe, mrder, sic*de, graphic content)

The CAA bill. https://cjp.org.in/why-the-caanprnrc-is-a-toxic-cocktail-for-everyone/ https://theprint.in/india/we-are-shrinking-india-by-highlighting-our-differences-young-india-isnt-happy-harsha-bhogle/340710/
Demonetisation which was a big flop. https://m.businesstoday.in/story/lets-admit-it-demonetisation-was-a-failure/1/281860.html
Amit Shah corruption. https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/jay-amit-shah-controversy-criminal-defamation-case-and-top-10-developments-117101000160_1.html
Gujarat 2002. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/ma14/new-india-gujarat-massacre
GST https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/cash-flow/gsts-problems-are-worsened-by-shoddy-planning-and-poor-implementation-at-the-start/
Umar Khalid was arrested under a draconian law. https://m.thewire.in/article/rights/modi-government-umar-khalid-delhi-riots
Sharjeel Imam was arrested under a draconian law. https://www.thequint.com/news/politics/sharjeel-imam-jnu-anti-caa-protests-indian-muslims-modi-government#read-more
Siddique Kappan wrongfully arrested and also being treated badly in jail. https://indiatomorrow.net/2020/12/23/police-torturing-my-husband-in-jail-alleges-raihanath-wife-of-journalist-siddique-kappan/
Prashant Kanojia was arrested over a tweet. https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/up-government-arrests-prashant-kanojia-for-fake-tweet/articleshow/77615978.cms?utm_source=whatsapp_pwa&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialsharebuttons
Stan Swami was treated badly. https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-what-message-does-bjp-want-to-give-jharkhand-cm-on-stan-swamys-arrest/361889
JNU attack. https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/modi-government-faces-unprecedented-criticism-over-attacks-on-jnu-students-by-masked-goons/articleshow/73126289.cms
Jamia attack. https://m.thewire.in/article/politics/jamia-attack-opposition-parties-reactions
AMU incidents. https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/amu-violence-bjp-rss-attempt-to-communalise-incident-ably-foiled
Massive criminal records of BJP candidates. https://m.economictimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/in-2019-general-elections-no-bar-on-candidates-charged-with-murder-or-rape/articleshow/69318220.cms https://www.indiaspend.com/55-of-lok-sabha-mps-facing-criminal-charges-are-from-bjp/
Undemocratically passed farm bills. https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/what-is-the-farm-bill-and-why-are-farmers-protesting-against-it/689215
The new education policy which is a nightmare.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2020/aug/12/does-the-national-education-policy-miss-out-on-real-issues-2182273.html
https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/new-education-policy-2020-regional-language-bhasha-medium-schools-6537823/#:~:text=NEP%202020%20does%20not%20tackle,more%20of%20them%20will%20sprout. https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/nep-national-education-policy-p-chidambaram-6556452/
https://www.cpim.org/pressbriefs/cpi-m-response-new-education-policy-2020-nep https://www.akademimag.com/nep-2020

The privatisation of airports. https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/airports-for-sale-modi-government-to-privatise-six-more-airports-adani-may-get-all-of-them

https://www.newsclick.in/rail-oil-airports-everything-will-be-sold-slogan-will-be-i-will-not-sell-country

New parliament because we really lack parliaments don't we. https://scroll.in/article/980453/the-political-fix-why-indias-new-parliament-building-portends-a-north-south-tug-of-war

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/central-vista-project-wasteful-and-unnecessary-69-ex-bureaucrats-to-pm-2342251
https://m.thewire.in/article/government/central-vista-parliament-building-redevelopment

A statue - the tallest one. https://theprint.in/opinion/even-if-statue-of-unity-becomes-as-famous-as-taj-mahal-we-need-120-years-to-break-even/142596/?amp
Ram temple. https://m.thewire.in/article/religion/ayodhya-ram-mandir-temple-babr-masjid-bhoomi-pujan

https://scroll.in/article/901042/gen-92-on-ram-temple-why-waste-peoples-hard-earned-money-on-shrines
https://feminisminindia.com/2020/09/02/ayodhya-masculinisation-of-indian-politics/

Babri demolition issue. https://m.thewire.in/article/communalism/babri-masjid-the-timeline-of-a-demolition also watch the Ram ke naam documentary on YouTube.
Not providing funds for flood affected Kerala. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/no-flood-relief-to-kerala-centre-ignores-left-ruled-state-again-in-fund-release-1634741-2020-01-07
Modi denies climate change. https://www.climatechangenews.com/2014/09/08/the-miseducation-of-narendra-modi-on-climate-change/ https://feminisminindia.com/2020/03/10/modi-isnt-telling-about-climate-change/
The transphobic trans bill. https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/governance/why-is-transgender-community-unhappy-with-trans-persons-bill--67158
BJP workers beating up protesting farmers. https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/bjp-workers-thrash-farm-bill-protesters/cid/1793082
Doctors protesting against mixopathy. https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/doctors-protest-intensifies-as-modi-govt-allows-ayurvedic-doctors-to-perform-surgery
Oppression of dalits increased during NDA rule. https://peoplesdemocracy.in/2019/0407_pd/attacks-against-dalits-spike-%E2%80%98modi%E2%80%99fied-india

https://www.shethepeople.tv/top-stories/opinion/caste-in-crime-cases-like-hathras-gang-rape-dalit-woman/

Casteism has also been a big issue under this regime.

https://www.edexlive.com/opinion/2019/may/12/chaiwala-chowkidar-and-caste-politics-in-india-does-narendra-modi-talking-about-caste-add-to-his-w-6118.html https://theprint.in/opinion/forget-about-dalit-voters-tell-us-why-upper-caste-hindus-voted-for-bjp-like-never-before/249420/
I recommend watching the documentaries. The die is caste and india untouched. Both of them are available on YouTube.

Islamophobia increased under this regime. https://m.thewire.in/article/communalism/this-is-what-the-modi-sarkar-has-done-to-indian-muslims

https://theconversation.com/amp/why-modis-india-has-become-a-dangerous-place-for-muslims-132591?
https://feminisminindia.com/2020/01/02/recent-islamophobic-legislations-bjp-government/

BJP protesting against halal. https://www.india.com/viral/hindutva-outfits-trigger-wave-of-islamophobia-to-curb-economic-jihad-bjp-mla-backs-boycotthalalproducts-on-twitter-4030747/
BJP is anti minority. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/20/hindu-supremacists-nationalism-tearing-india-apart-modi-bjp-rss-jnu-attacks
Removal of article 370. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-49234708 https://feminisminindia.com/2020/01/22/siege-normalcy-kashmir-restored/
Kashmir blackout. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/05/the-personal-and-economic-cost-of-kashmirs-internet-ban

Muzzaffarnagar riots. https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/national/muzaffarnagar-riots-2013-six-years-later-no-closure-yet

 https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/warrants-against-bjp-leaders-in-muzaffarnagar-riots-case/article21822982.ece

Increase in unemployment. https://theprint.in/economy/polls-done-modi-govt-releases-jobs-data-that-showed-unemployment-at-45-year-high/244163/ https://scroll.in/article/914338/the-modi-years-did-indians-find-jobs-or-lose-them
Farmer suicides increased during modi's government. https://www.asianage.com/metros/mumbai/030220/bjp-regime-saw-more-farmer-suicides.html

https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/mumbai/cover-story/figures-double-under-bjp-led-regimes-watch/articleshow/68160764.cms 37. Delhi pogrom. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/what-happened-delhi-was-pogrom/607198/
https://theprint.in/opinion/delhi-pogrom-2020-is-amit-shah-answer-to-an-election-defeat/371558/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ma01/india-delhi-after-hindu-mob-riot-religious-hatred-nationalists

https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/en/NewsDetail/index/4/15064/The-Failure-of-the-Swachh-Bharat-Abhiyan 45. Lies spread about shaheen bagh by rss. https://theprint.in/opinion/people-occupation-of-shaheen-bagh-speaks-truth-to-powe351974/

Detention centres. https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-modi-india-detention-camps/
The myth of love jihad. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/sunday-times/how-the-myth-of-love-jihad-is-going-viral/articleshow/79111670.cms
BJP coming out in support of rapists. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/kathua-rape-case-2-bjp-ministers-attend-rally-in-support-of-accused-1181788-2018-03-04 https://gaurilankeshnews.com/rashtriya-savarna-parishad-protests-in-support-of-hathras-thakur-rapists/
No action on pollution and environment. https://theprint.in/opinion/environment-is-the-most-under-reported-failure-of-narendra-modi-government/223670/
BJP is anti-reservation. https://theprint.in/opinion/subramanian-swamy-was-right-modis-lateral-entry-plan-will-make-reservations-irrelevant/250311/
They are Hitler sympathizers. https://t.co/KGzB3ILpsd
Modi is great friends with trump. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ma02/how-modis-hindu-nationalism-complements-trumps-racism https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/opinion/right-wing-politics-is-similar-in-both-america-and-india-modi-abuses-official-power-same-way-as-trump https://feminisminindia.com/2020/03/02/donald-trump-visiting-india-entertaining-serial-sexual-harasse
BJP spent money in hiding slums. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/trump-india-visit-wall-criticism-hiding-poor-people https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/the-gujarat-model-why-walls-cant-hide-the-truth-806336.html
The attack on Aishe Ghosh. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/blood-or-paint-on-aishe-s-forehead-bengal-bjp-boss-sparks-outrage/story-8Ue9PQt1tdxrQrOaJ6N2XO.html
Kapil Mishra incited violence but no action was taken. https://m.thewire.in/article/communalism/delhi-riots-kapil-mishra-minority-commission-report https://feminisminindia.com/2020/06/02/women-activists-behind-bars-kapil-mishra-scot-free/
Kashmir coup. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/10/modi-hardline-hindu-coup-kashmir-threatens-india-democracy
Problems with the EIA draft 2020. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/readersblog/wakeup-india/why-eia-2020-is-not-good-for-environment-23757/
Rise of unlawful murders in Modi's Gujarat. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-16722178
The extremely bad treatment of migrant workers. https://theprint.in/india/why-did-modi-abandon-us-migrant-workers-hit-hard-by-lockdown-are-angry/439418/
Gauri Lankesh murder. https://cpj.org/?p=39656
Modi's control on the media. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/world/asia/modi-india-press-media.html#click=https://t.co/JkwiLU019Y
Cutting of Aarey forest https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/mmrc-begins-mumbai-metro-construction-work-at-aarey-residents-file-complaint/story-eVUO3LIXLBQoG5azjRNTBO.html
Aravalli destruction. https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/gurgaon-residents-take-up-fight-against-road-project-through-aravalli-park-5422577/
Naming students as Anti National and misguided. https://scroll.in/article/949119/the-daily-fix-how-bjps-politics-of-perpetual-confrontation-is-destroying-india
BJP's treatment of women. https://feminisminindia.com/2019/04/23/bjp-treating-indian-women/
Anti Worker and Labour laws. https://feminisminindia.com/2020/02/10/low-wages-no-rights-bjps-amendments-disaster-labour-india/
The draconian UAPA bill. https://m.thewire.in/article/rights/uapa-bjp-terrorist-amit-shah-nia
The outrage against the tanishq ad portraying communal harmony. https://feminisminindia.com/2020/10/16/how-the-criticism-against-tanishq-ad-peddles-a-hindutva-nationalist-narrative/
Hindu Rashtra: Some are more equal than others. https://feminisminindia.com/2020/01/02/hindu-rashtra-some-more-equal-than-others/
The surplus problem in India. https://feminisminindia.com/2020/06/05/surplus-problem-hunger-food-environment/
Education in Modi's India. https://feminisminindia.com/2020/03/19/safe-to-get-an-education-modis-india/
Rohith Vemula. https://feminisminindia.com/2020/01/17/institutional-casteism-4-years-rohith-vemula/
Modi's communal remark on clothes. https://m.thewire.in/article/communalism/narendra-modi-citizenship-amendment-act-protests-clothes
Sabarimala issue. https://www.livemint.com/Politics/teonT4drie4Y6T81F7tdSK/Ahead-of-Sabarimala-temples-opening-BJP-holds-protests-aga.html
The problem with Section 144. https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/main-article/section-144-chaining-freedom-801890.html
Lies on Internet Shutdown. https://feminisminindia.com/2019/12/23/lie-digital-india-truth-internet-shutdown/
Sudha Bharadwaj denied bail without trial. https://m.thewire.in/article/rights/sudha-bharadwaj-bhima-koregaon-case-arrest-bail-health
Hindi Imposition. https://scroll.in/article/925759/why-imposing-hindi-on-india-is-a-bad-idea
Homophobia. https://feminisminindia.com/2018/07/18/gay-modi-fans/
Modi's sexist remarks. https://feminisminindia.com/2015/06/09/despitebeingawoman-and-other-sexist-remarks-by-pm-modi/ https://cpiml.net/liberation/2015/07/modis-misogyny-not-slip-tongue
Amit shah calls infiltrators 'termites' and says BJP will throw them out. https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/bjp-amit-shah-hindu-refugees-mamata-bannerjee-1499691-2019-04-11
Arrest of Kafeel Khan. https://m.thewire.in/article/rights/kafeel-khan-arrest-cases-timeline#:~:text=The%20FIR%20was%20filed%20under,Security%20Act%20invoked%20against%20Khan.
Rewriting history to enforce hindu nationalism. https://www.codastory.com/disinformation/india-reframing-history/
Shutting up free speech. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/from-the-viewsroom/shutting-up-free-speech/article32868339.ece
Unfair reporting. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/27/why-india-has-become-a-different-country/
Kashmir votes India hails. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/world/asia/kashmir-modi-election.html
Recession. https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/six-years-of-modi-govts-rule-has-led-indian-economy-to-near-collapse
15 Lakh scam. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/pm-narendra-modi-amit-shah-case-ranchi-court-election-promise-1642942-2020-02-03
Banned from the US. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303380004579520041301275638
Malegaon blast; Pragya Thakur. https://www.freepressjournal.in/mumbai/malegaon-blast-case-bjps-pragya-singh-thakur-fails-to-appear-in-court-all-accused-to-now-be-present-on-dec-19
BJP youth deface the Taj Mahal. https://m.rediff.com/news/2001/oct/14bjp.htm https://www.cpim.org/content/bjp-youth-deface-taj https://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/sc-orders-probe-into-vandalism-at-taj-mahal-by-bjp-youth-wing_23299.html
Rafale scam. https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/rafale-deal-largest-defence-scam-in-indias-history-prashant-bhushan/articleshow/66196602.cms https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/what-all-can-the-court-overlook-in-the-rafale-matter-723110.html
BJP workers stop flood relief. https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/bjp-workers-not-allowing-relief-funds-collection-in-tripura-cpi-m-118082800785_1.html https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/kerala-flood-relief-cpi-m-leaders-holding-donation-drive-in-tripura-attacked-bjp-denies-responsibility-5330846/
Suppressing dissent. https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/12/13/dissent-anti-national-modis-india https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-spreading-violence-suppressing-dissent-is-bjp-s-politics-2457374
Institutional shooting. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-51308376?ocid=socialflow_twitter
"Desh ke gaddaron ko, goli maro sa**on ko" https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today/story/delhi-election-ec-notice-to-bjp-anurag-thakur-for-violating-code-1641085-2020-01-29
Komal Sharma. https://m.thewire.in/article/government/jnu-masked-woman-komal-sharma-abvp-delhi-police-confirm
Illegal mining scam. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-14229386
Santanu Bhowmick's murder. https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/tripura/three-years-on-slain-tripura-journalists-mother-still-waits-for-justice-6603858/
Petrol hike. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/rising-petrol-prices-what-narendra-modi-said-before-2014-and-his-govt-did-in-4-years-1202628-2018-04-02
Balakot airstrike. https://scroll.in/article/918686/opinion-on-balakot-and-after-real-mystery-is-how-the-indian-response-has-been-touted-as-a-triump
Reservations based on economy? Why put a price tag on education in the first place? https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/en/NewsDetail/index/4/16030/The-Problem-with-Reservation-for-Economically-Backward-Upper-Castes
Triple talaq bill. https://feminisminindia.com/2018/07/20/muslim-men-women-opposed-triple-talaq-bill/
Kartarpur corridor. https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-kartarpur-corridor-india-pakistan-fail-to-finalise-agreement-over-service-fee-from-pilgrims/337872
Failure of jan dhan yojana. https://mybs.in/2X8NgpK
Failure of digital India. https://www.businessinsider.in/budget-2019-has-no-allocation-for-digital-india/articleshow/67793761.cms?utm_source=google_non_
Surgical strikes. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37702790
Failure of make in India. https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/opinion-make-in-india-pm-modis-flagship-programme-has-failed-to-deliver-and-numbers-show/347376
Free LPG scheme. https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/pm-narendra-modis-ujjwala-yojana-scheme-provided-lpg-access-but-failed-to-promote-its-use-says-study/1833877/ https://m.businesstoday.in/story/modi-ujjwala-lpg-scheme-faces-affordability-problem-not-availability-sbi-ecowrap/1/396361.html
Failure of UDAN scheme. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/pm-narendra-modi-udan-scheme-india-poor-974732-2017-05-02
Failure of startup India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/yankeedoodle/why-startup-india-has-failed-how-to-fix-it
Failure of NELP. https://m.economictimes.com/the-big-story/nelp-has-failed-to-draw-attention-of-big-players/articleshow/2693981.cms?utm_source=whatsapp_pwa&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialsharebuttons
Failure of hydrocarbon exploration and licensing policy. https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/indias-new-hydrocarbon-exploration-and-licensing-policy-a-spectacular-failure/307544
Problems with insolvency and bankruptcy code. https://m.businesstoday.in/story/has-insolvency-and-bankruptcy-code-failed-homebuyers/1/361574.html
Real estate act problems. https://www.taxmanagementindia.com/visitodetail_article.asp?ArticleID=7359
Problems with pm's kisan yojana. https://m.thewire.in/article/economy/pm-kisan-farmers-instalments-modi-government
Bodo peace accord. https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/opinion-should-we-already-celebrate-the-new-bodo-accord-bjp-modi-assam/347329
Problems with the national medical council. https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/bad-prescription-national-medical-commission-bill-5918348/
Failure of Sansad adarsh gram yojana. https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/scroll-journalist-booked-but-modi-govt-own-survey-says-adarsh-gram-yojana-failed-to-achieve-purpose
Failure of mega food parks. https://m.businesstoday.in/story/food-parks-in-india-fail-to-attract-corporate-investment/1/220531.html
Flaws in the mudra scheme. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/key-flaws-in-the-mudra-scheme-need-to-be-fixed/article30141264.ece
BHIM app. https://www.livemint.com/money/personal-finance/why-bhim-is-losing-to-other-apps-in-upi-race-1556007428797.html
Failure of Atal pension yojana. https://theprint.in/opinion/two-pension-schemes-one-problem-what-modi-govt-didnt-learn/205018/
AMRUT failure. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/with-a-year-to-go-for-amrut-just-20-of-urban-facelift-projects-complete/article25972963.ece
India's groundwater problem. https://www.indiawaterportal.org/articles/india-has-groundwater-problem
The Char dham project could end up being a disaster. https://scroll.in/article/972069/road-widening-projects-in-himalayas-for-char-dham-pilgrims-could-be-a-disaster-in-making
Pm's garib kalyan anna yojana was a failure. https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/modis-free-ration-scheme-fails-to-take-off-11-states-didnt-distribute-even-1-foodgrains/2010848/
On the ultra mega solar power plants. https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/modis-free-ration-scheme-fails-to-take-off-11-states-didnt-distribute-even-1-foodgrains/2010848/
The failure of HRIDAY. https://housing.com/news/parliamentary-panel-pulls-housing-ministry-failure-utilise-funds/
Sagarmala project. https://ecologise.in/2017/05/24/sagarmala-the-rs-10-trillion-project-that-is-wrecking-indias-coast/
SAUNI project. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ahmedabad/centre-rejects-6399-crore-demand-for-sauni-doubts-its-feasibility/articleshow/58652697.cms
E- NAM, yet another failure. https://www.youthkiawaaz.com/2020/06/solving-indias-agrarian-crisis-part-3-is-e-nam-the-solution/
DRDO. https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/narendra-modi-extremely-unhappy-with-drdos-failure-to-meet-deadlines-in-delivering-products/articleshow/40719955.cms

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

Wanted to share some of my research on Digital Turbine, which in my view isn’t getting enough attention. The company owns a monopoly in the pre-load app space, has a lot of exciting growth opportunities, and is a great long-term buy. The stock is up over 650% over the past 12 months, so the valuation does seem stretched, but I could see the stock going to $100 within the next 6-12 months if the next few earnings calls don’t disappoint.
Super long post, TLDR on the bottom.
What Does Digital Turbine Do?

Digital Turbine has created digital software called Ignite and its flagship product Dynamic Installs (70% of revenue) automatically pre-loads apps onto the phone for the Android market ONLY. Basically, if you buy a new Android device and you see Uber or Starbucks installed when you first boot up the phone, Digital Turbine is likely the company behind that.
Digital Turbine has additional products (30% of revenue) including:
- Wizard - a pop-up menu that shows up and asks users if they want to add apps onto their phone when booting up a new phone
- SingleTap - a patented digital ad technology that allows users to frictionlessly download apps with one-click instead of having to go through multiple steps on the App Store
- Notifications that pop on the user’s home screen recommending apps or content

Business Model

The power of Digital Turbine’s business model comes from its extensive partnerships. The company has multi-year EXCLUSIVE contracts with many of the major phone carriers like Verizon and AT&T, OEMs like Samsung and LG, and advertisers which consist of 70% of the top apps on Google Play.
To give you an example of how Digital Turbine makes money, let’s imagine Lyft wants to gain users on Android devices. Lyft could spend $100 marketing on Facebook or Snapchat to get new users but then they’re competing with the hundreds of thousands of other apps spending on ads, OR they could approach Digital Turbine and get a guaranteed number of pre-loaded apps onto phones for that same $100. Digital Turbine touts this to give companies a much better ROI.
- Roughly a third of the revenue paid by an advertiser goes to the carrier, a third to the OEM, and a third to Digital Turbine
Carriers and OEMs earn money from advertisers without much work on their end, while app developers are able to access millions of Android devices as long as their app is a good fit for the phone buyer
To give you a sense of scale for the business, Digital Turbine to date has delivered 4.2 billion apps, has its software on more than 500 million phones, and is adding more than 20 million new devices each month

Growth Prospects

Macroeconomic / secular trends
- Though most US users love their iPhones the Android market actually dominates with an 80%+ market share worldwide, and this is not likely to change any time soon
- Due to COVID-19, a lot of retail stores had to shut down, which resulted in less new phone sales, which means less revenue for Digital Turbine. With the return of the economy and with the next wave of 5G phones which will push customers to upgrade phones, the next few years look favorable for the company
Mobile Posse
- The company acquired Mobile Posse, which provides carriers like Verizon and OEMs like Samsung the ability to show phone users third party content through two products:
  - firstAPP which aggregates different media content and is shown right when a user unlocks the phone
  - firstPAGE which shows media content when a user opens the browser
- The transaction closed in February 2020 and is a great complementary add to Digital Turbine for 3 reasons:
  - The deal was extremely fair in price. Mobile Posse was acquired for $66 million but $24.5 million of that is an estimated earn-out. With the company having generated $59 million in 2019 revenue, the company was purchased just over 1x revenue which in my opinion is a steal considering the company has a 5-year CAGR of 48% and is profitable
  - This acquisition makes Digital Turbine’s entire ecosystem more attractive to its partners by extending its product offerings throughout the life of the phone by being able to constantly show users content and ads. Mobile Posse’s content products will now consist of around a third of Digital Turbine’s revenue which is great because it decreases the company’s dependence on app pre-loads.
  - One of Mobile Posse’s primary carrier partners is T-Mobile which recently merged with Sprint, and this is the last major US carrier that Digital Turbine doesn’t have major business with. According to the latest earnings call, the CEO remains upbeat about signing T-Mobile and Sprint as partners, and the acquisition of Mobile Posse helps makes Digital Turbine more likely to sign on the carrier, which means more devices and an even stronger partnership network.
International expansion
- The third and most powerful opportunity for growth is international expansion. Currently, North America revenue accounts for roughly 65% of the company’s sales, but the real golden opportunity lies beyond in developing countries where Android is the dominant player.
- In December 2018, Digital Turbine signed on Samsung as a partner, which paved the way for the company to sign on Telefonica, Telecom Italia, America Movil, Millicom, and AT&T Mexico in the past 1-2 years. Basically, this means Digital Turbine now partners with 2/3 of the OEMs in Latin America and an estimated 80% of mobile subscribers through carriers
- The company also has a partnership with Reliance Jio, which covers 25% of the 1 billion mobile subscribers in India and has a partnership with Xiaomi which could lead to partnerships in China
- All of this is to say that Digital Turbine is truly in the beginning stages of its international expansion, and I believe as investors are starting to see the company successfully execute, it’s beginning to draw more attention and hence why it’s stock has shot up over the past year

Financials

In the latest quarterly earnings report, the company reported quarter over quarter revenue that is up 116% which is inflated due to the Mobile Posse acquisition but on a combined company basis, sales grew by 53%.
The company also grew recurring revenue from 10% in the previous year to 40% which is a really good sign because it means revenue will be more reliable moving forward
The company also reported 43% gross margin in the quarter as compared to 39% in the previous year, another great sign
Company has just about as much debt as cash (~$17mm) and is profitable and cash-flow positive

Risks & mitigations

First, is the valuation. Digital Turbine has experienced some explosive growth over the past year and in order to justify its share price, the company needs to execute well especially with its international expansion which is always tricky
- However, I do think the management team has shown that it has been making all the right moves and I think the path to future growth as I laid out earlier in the video will lead to some nice surprise developments in the next few years
Second, in its 10K, one of the biggest risks is that carriers or OEMs may start building their own services to work with advertisers, and if a big customer like Verizon or AT&T were to pull out their contracts, that would really hurt the company like when TikTok pulled from Fastly.
- I think Digital Turbine is aware of this risk and that’s why it’s working hard to diversify its revenue stream by strengthening its product offerings through the acquisition of Mobile Posse and expanding internationally
Lastly, there’s some criticism that Digital Turbine products are bloatware, and this would only be a problem if customers actually were turning away from devices because of the pre-loaded apps and home screen products Digital Turbine provides
- Customers can always turn off any of Digital Turbine’s products and delete pre-loaded apps but more often than not, customers end up utilizing the company’s products in one form or another

What I’m Doing

I’ve started a small position in the company a few weeks ago and plan to hold for the next few years
Valuation looks a bit overstretched so I wouldn’t bet the farm on it at these prices but if the stock does have any major dips, I am going to treat them as major buying opportunities
Company’s earnings report is on February 3rd, which will be really interesting to see what happens. Last quarter, the company reported strong earnings but the stock dropped 16% and rebounded quickly
If the stock dips to the $30s or $40s, that would be an ideal great time to buy

Resources I looked at:

TLDR: Company owns a monopoly in the Android pre-load app space with partnerships with the largest carriers and OEMs in the world not named Apple; lots of good growth prospects including its recent acquisition + international expansion. Expensive stock fundamentally right now but good one to keep an eye on if there are any major dips. Strong buy in the $30s-40s. Medium buy in the $50s. Earnings call on February 3rd should materially move the stock either up or down so will be important to pay attention to that.

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