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The NBA rookie of the year award has spotlighted some of the greatest players ever to enter the league. I wanted to take a look at the odds on favorites to win the award and some sleepers who could surprise next season. The ROTY isn’t always the future star of the class: LeBron (2004), Chris Paul (2006), or Durant (2008). Oftentimes, the Rookie of the Year is an older player who is ready to contribute right away: Malcolm Brogdon (2017), Damian Lillard (2013), or Ben Simmons (2018). More often than not, the Rookie of the Year is given to the player with the highest number of combined counting stats per game. So this ranking isn’t who I think will be the best rookie down the road, or even the rookie that will be the best player next year, it’s more about who will put up the most impressive stat line next season.
The Favorite: Zion Williamson (-135)
Zion will be in a favorable situation next season in New Orleans, starting at the four on a team that will probably start 3 other good to great playmakers. Zion will at worst be the number three option as far as scoring goes. The spacing-wise, it won’t be great, but it can only go up from the clogged paint that Williamson dominated at Duke. Zion is a skilled rebounder and passer already, I wouldn’t be surprised if Zion led the team in rebounding year one. Despite being the favorite by a large margin, smart money would be put on Zion.
Stat Projection: 15/8/3
The Lead Challengers: Ja Morant (+300)
Ja should be the lead challenger to Zion’s ROTY candidacy. Ja will be handed the keys to Memphis’ offense from day one. Flanked by a sweet shooting second year big in JJJ and a newly inked Jonas Valanciunas, Morant will be able to show off his passing chops to two great play finishers. Rookie point guards notoriously have a hard time contributing to winning when first joining the league, but scoring inefficiency, turnover problems, and defensive deficiencies usually are overlooked when the player is putting up big scoring and assist numbers. Ja is a talented passer, not quite as good as Trae Young, but in the same stratosphere, and he should throw down some highlight dunks his rookie year. Morant isn’t going to necessarily surprise anyone if he wins, but there’s a reason he has longer odds than Zion.
Stat Projection: 15/4/7
RJ Barrett (+550)
RJ Barrett was the number 1 recruit entering last college basketball season; despite having a historic first season at Duke, he has definitely soured in a lot of NBA people’s eyes. Barrett is still a talented scorer, especially when he gets going downhill. A lot of the negative press got at Duke was due to his tunnel vision, despite this, Barrett is a talented passer with good vision. Although the Knicks famously missed on all of their marquee free agency targets, it doesn’t seem like Barrett is going to be the number one option entering the 2019-20 season. Barrett may not even start on the wing with Knox and Morris at the 3 and Dotson, Bullock, Ellington and Trier all looking for minutes at the 2. I expect Barrett will find his way into the starting lineup once the Knicks’ playoff aspirations are squashed. Even then, Barrett will have to compete for shots not the most pass happy group. I could see Barrett putting up good numbers once the keys are handed to him, I’m just not sure when that will be.
Stat Projection: 14/5/3
Dark Horses: Jarrett Culver (+2500)
Culver may not be a starter day 1 for Minnesota, but he will likely be the first player off the bench and have the ball in his hands often once he’s in the game. Culver played a de facto point guard role last year in Lubbock, where he was able to show off his passing ability. If Culver does manage to find his way into Minnesota’s starting 5, he could be a good bet.
Stat Projection: 10/4/3
Darius Garland (+1800)
The fit with Garland next to Sexton is a peculiar one. Neither Sexton nor Garland is known for their passing chops, so there will definitely be some growing pains. Sexton surprised most people around the league with his ability to hit the three at a good rate; Garland is coming into the league with the reputation as a shooter already. If Garland comes out of the gates putting up big scoring numbers, look for him to be an early favorite for the award.
Stat Projections: 14/2/4
PJ Washington (+10000)
PJ is a long shot. He’s not necessarily a ceiling play, but more of a floor one. PJ was one of my favorite mid-first prospects entering the draft and he got drafted a lot higher than I expected. He isn’t slotted to start at the 4 in Charlotte, that looks to be Marvin Williams, but I could see him (Williams) being moved for salary dumps and picks. PJ is a good defender, solid shooter, and may surprise some people with his 1-on-1 scoring ability. If he can get consistent minutes in Charlotte, and other top picks disappoint for whatever reason, Washington could be a shocker for ROTY.
Stat Projection: 11/6/2
Players I like with no available odds: Brandon Clarke looks like a good fit next to Jaren Jackson Jr. in the long term, but he doesn’t have a direct path to a great deal of playing time his rookie year. I also like Carsen Edwards, an electric scorer that should thrive in Brad Stevens’ offense. Without an obvious backup PG in Boston, Edwards should get steady playing time and is an injury away from substantial minutes. Nicolo Melli turns 29 this season, and provides a stretch big option that the Pelicans desperately need.
The reason why I dislike certain high odd players: Michael Porter (+1800) has a horrifying injury history that just scares me away from this talented player. Coby White (+1800) is a rookie point guard on a team with supposed playoff aspirations, with the addition of Tomas Satoransky, White doesn’t have a direct line to more than 20 minutes per game. DeAndre Hunter (+2500) will probably start at forward for the Hawks, but most of his value will be derived from his ability as a defender. Rui Hachimura (+2500) I’m not a huge fan of Hachimura’s game, but I don’t think he’ll add much outside of his scoring.
All odds are accurate as of August 24th from Bovada