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Computer Generated Indies

TL;DR - we taught a computer to make up indie perfume names and descriptions. It was hilariously bad at it.
Inspired by this post about AI-generated candle descriptions, my brother and I decided to try training the gpt-2 (an AI computer that's available for people to tinker with) on indie perfume names and descriptions. Neither of us are experts (he does some coding for his engineering job; I barely passed one CS class in college) but it turns out that people who know much more than we do have been working to make artificial neural networks accessible, and it actually wasn't too bad.
To train a computer, you need data. Lots of it. Thankfully, this sub came through for me, with this spreadsheet of over 1500 perfumes compiled by the amazing u/vanityclaire (Sadly it's outdated for shopping, but still good for this.)
Then we had to train the ANN. We thought we had an instant success when it began giving us names like "Banana Peel in a Graveyard," but it turned out we were simply underestimating the enduring weirdness of BPAL names.
(Incidentally, I think BPAL should release a perfume called The Enduring Weirdness Of BPAL Names. Just for fun.)
However, eventually we succeeded. We found that the models that generated creative names were mostly the ones that generated boring descriptions and vice versa, so I'm giving them mostly separately. Feel free to match them up, or suggest names or notes for them :)

CGI Names

And finally, the computer would like to suggest that if there are Rose Mallow, Violet Mallow, and Cocoa Mallow perfumes, then there is no good reason not to create Cherry Mallow, Banana Mallow, Cobalt Mallow, and Python Mallow. Obviously.

CGI Descriptions

And then there were the descriptions, which ranged from normal to......I have no idea what some of these are about. Here's a selection:

CGI successes?

And then there's a few that I think the computer got more or less right! I bet these would sell:
So. That's the post. Favorites? Least favorites? Any that you want to make up notes or names or descriptions for?
Also, you can find the unfiltered dump of all our results here - feel free to go looking at everything I didn't include!
submitted by ladyphlogiston to Indiemakeupandmore [link] [comments]

Unleashed pt. 52

 
First / Prev / Next
 
 
Alexa was sitting cross legged before Sassie, with Aiov lying casually on the German Shepherd’s back. She had a metal bowl in her lap with chunks of fresh meat for Aiov and cooked meat for her large canine protector. It had been a difficult time as the dog had missed Aaron more and more, to the point that she had begun to refuse food. Aiov's enthusiasm, however, seemed to help slightly in countering that refusal, and Alexa had found that feeding them together at least got some food into the lonely Earth ambassador.
She scratched at the dog’s head as Aiov happily chomped on another scrap of meat. “Look at that! You won’t be outdone by a leokit now, will you?” She placed a cube of seared meat before Sassie’s nose. She sniffed it twice before eating. “You’re going to be so spoiled by the time we get him back. We’ll both get in trouble.”
Aiov snuggled into the thick black and tan fur, using her paw to guide the next morsel into her mouth. Sassie managed a few more pieces before turning her head away with a grunt. Satisfied with what she had achieved Alexa gave a few more scraps to Aiov before placing the bowl into the recycler. The loudspeakers throughout the Rinoxian vessel blared a loud message announcing they had now crossed into Hive space and that their readiness was being moved to level three.
Her door chimed. Opening it, she found Allistan in his new Terran Wolves uniform. “You need to come quickly, the Porkchop Express has arrived.”
As she grabbed Aaron's old leather jacket, Sassie immediately rose to follow which caused Aiov to roll to the floor. "You come," she spoke to the dog, then turned to the distinctly unhappy leokit who had just lost her warm pillow. "You stay, sorry.”
They walked briskly through the corridors of the Rinoxian warship towards a secure meeting room which had two Terran Wolves outside the door. Their black uniforms and red collars were easily identifiable and they gave sharp salutes as Alexa approached. “I told you not to salute.”
The two guards lowered their hands sheepishly as the doors opened. Sassie immediately surged past Alexa to happily greet the returning crew members. She moved from Ranjaz to Jaym, receiving many scratches and hugs. Even Eruwenn and Cygna received a quick examination, but she soon stopped when no sign of Aaron could be found. The German Shepherd forlornly returned to Alexa's side as the Awakened took a seat at the meeting table. “Is the room secure?”
Cygna, now in a smart black uniform with white collar, stood. “We have taken additional precautions due to the sensitive information we will be discussing.”
Tilting her head, Alexa took in the Fae’Dan’s new clothing. “You’re one of us now?”
Eruwenn gave a slight chuckle. Aside from Alexa, she was the only one not in uniform. “She lost a game of dalcho, or two.”
Seven.” Ranjaz said with a wicked grin. “Don’t worry, she’s actually been a fairly competent assistant. Aside from her gambling issues, obviously.”
Her head drooping to look at her feet, Cygna replied, “I swear by Tulseria’s right hand, I will get you back for this!”
The Kittran’s grin grew more predatory. “Wanna bet?”
There was a long table by the wall where Embar was fixing himself a drink, He turned, shaking his head. “I’m not sure I approve of your recruiting techniques.”
The Kittran shrugged. “She’s worth it – even broke the code on this.” He tossed the recovered device onto the table as Embar returned and took his seat opposite him. “And, you’re going to want a stronger drink, General.”
Curiosity piqued, Allistan took his seat, preparing his notepad and pen. “What did you find?”
Ranjaz was about to speak when Eruwenn held up her hand. “I think we should let General Embar read this first. He can take a moment before we all continue.”
Raising an eyebrow, Embar sat down in a nearby chair and connected the device to a non-networked datapad. “Why me?” He began scrolling through the files, tapping on icons and delving deeper. His breathing suddenly stopped, his face contorting. Disbelief morphed into anger, and as his body tensed, anger turned to white-hot rage. He placed the datapad down on the table before him and stood, walking back towards the drinks table. He lowered his head, his body radiating anger as his muscles clenched and unclenched, then raised his fist into the air and slammed it into the table. Bottles, glasses and everything else it had held went crashing to the ground as it buckled under force of his blow. “We’re going to kill every last one of those Sentinel bastards!”
No longer smiling, Ranjaz stood. “You’re Tulseria damned right we are.”
Jaym was sitting silently, but she pulled a rag from her pocket and dabbed at her tears. After they had fled from the casino she had tried to help crack the encryption on the stolen device. Part of her wished they never had, as its contents had disturbed her so much. Now that they had finally caught up with Alexa, Embar and the others who had been on the Rinoxian homeworld, she empathised deeply with the pain this information was bringing. “It’s so awful, I’m so sorry Embar.”
Eruwenn patted the young Arkellian on the shoulder to comfort her as she looked at the Rinoxian. “Please believe me, General Warbringer. The council knew nothing of this.”
Alexa picked up the datapad, using her nanites to more quickly access the information. She grit her teeth, biting back her anger, then passed it quickly to Allistan. “You need to read this. Then we need to plan our next move.” She looked at the back of the unmoving Rinoxian. “Embar?”
Embar slowly turned around, his jaw set, determination in his eyes. “We keep this quiet. We’re on an active mission and need everyone focused on the job at hand.”
Allistan went to click his pen as he read, but with a gasp the pen fell from his fingers. “We can’t keep quiet, the galaxy needs to see this.”
The Rinoxian nodded. “They will. When the time is right.”
 
 
It had been two cycles and the incursion fleet had advanced deep into Hive space. Over half of the force accompanying them were the Rinoxians under their new Galactic Federation commanders. There were over a dozen Galactic Federation ships along with six Gowe destroyers, and a dozen ships from other races including the Niham and Kah’Ree. Admiral Pelar, on board the Blazing Dawn, commanded four Ashi ships including the Righteous Fury.
The smallest craft by far was the Porkchop Express, a speck amongst titans. Its white painted hull, chrome bull bars and bright cartoon logo were a stark contrast to the military ships it accompanied. Sassie was more comfortable now that she was in familiar territory, and slept on a pile of Aaron’s clothes in his quarters.
Allistan and Alexa were sitting opposite Jar’Bek in his small office. The Ashi looked exhausted as he finally put down his datapad. “I’m sorry to have kept you.”
Allistan fidgeted in his seat. “Not at all, was that your mother again?”
Stiffening slightly at the use of the word mother the lawyer forced himself to relax again. “Admiral Pelar has informed us that they have been repeatedly scanned by the Gowe. She’s taking no action, as we’re supposed to be allies, but wanted you to be aware.” Alexa nodded and he continued. “When we arrive at the next system the commanders of each ship have been called to the Hooves of Destiny. Vice-Admiral Koo Ji has requested an in person meeting, with all senior officers.”
There were several pen clicks. “That seems unusual.”
Jar’Bek gave a knowing nod. “Extremely. To remove every ship’s command, behind enemy lines? It makes no sense.”
Alexa pushed her hair back from her face. “The Rinoxians agreed to it?”
The Ashi nodded. “Most of their command have been replaced. Anyway, they outnumber – and outgun – the other ships. Why would they be concerned?”
Allistan’s pen clicked. “They probably just put it down to Gal. Fed. protocols, or fear.”
Jar’Bek nodded. “They’ve had us stopping in random systems to scan. No doubt it’s to delay us, but perhaps also to lower the Rinoxian’s guard?”
Leaning back in her chair, the Awakened considered the options. “Maybe there's another fleet waiting to ambush us? Or following us?”
Allistan twirled his pen in his fingers. “No, no. All eyes are on the border since Aaron’s capture. It must be something else.”
Moving on to her next idea, Alexa asked, “Sabotage?”
The Ashi gave a chuckle. “That is Admiral Pelar’s conclusion. The Gal. Fed. officers have been on board the other ships, and the possibility exists that there are Sentinels working amongst them. They are all in command positions, and will all be leaving. It’s a logical conclusion.”
Allistan’s pen halted its spinning. “The Ashi ships, they can’t have been sabotaged, right?”
The lawyer nodded. “True, but, it wouldn’t matter. Their ships are old and have seen too much action. Those Gowe ships alone are more than they could handle.”
The Fae’Dan sighed and shook his head at the situation they were facing. “We should have brought more ships. The new ones.”
Alexa, staring at the ceiling, spoke softly. “No, we don’t need to show our hand just yet. But send word to Chae’Sol, make sure he has the coordinates.”
Jar’Bek nodded and made a note on his datapad. “What about the others?”
The Awakened closed her eyes. It was times like this she missed her human and his habit of taking charge. “Tell Embar to warn his contacts among the Rinoxians. The others… I have no idea, I just want to sleep.”
Allistan, a stickler for accuracy, replied, “I didn’t think Awakened slept?”
She sat up and gave a half-hearted smile. In an unusual moment of vulnerability, she replied, “I was told you can do anything in a dream. For those moments, we would all be together again.”
Allistan struggled to come up with a response to that, and the Ashi, having noticed this, stepped in to fill the gap in conversation. “We’ll find him. I can’t lose the most profitable client in the galaxy now, can I?”
Now past the moment of awkwardness, the Fae’Dan also answered. “I’m sure he’s fine. In fact, he’s probably already on his way back to us.”
Alexa gave Allistan a withering look. “You think he single-handedly defeated the Hive, stole a ship and managed to figure out how to fly it back here?”
The former Inspector paused to consider it. “No. It will most likely be something even more preposterous. Perhaps he married their Queen?”
The ridiculousness of the idea brought a chuckle to the Awakened. “Maybe. Hopefully nothing that drastic; he’d probably just turn their society upside down with some ridiculous scheme.”
Jar’Bek also smiled. “A little civil unrest, perhaps a few riots? No doubt with merchandise.”
Finally breaking into a broad grin, Alexa replied, “I think we all might be over-estimating him a little.”
 
 
Aaron stood in the trade area of Toivoa station with a contingent of Gardener Royal Guards behind him, Tsy’Lo by his side, and a very angry mob in front of him. Several well-dressed local leaders were dragged from the crowd to stand before him; Mycena, Tricinic, Procyon and a dozen other refugee races were crammed into the triple height area of the station.
One of the leaders staggered towards Aaron. “You! You caused this!”
Aaron, feigning as much innocence as possible, pointed to his chest. “Me?
One of the Mycena he had met during his time on the station came forward. “We’ve all seen the videos! They kept us in the dark about what is going on out there! The Galactic Federation are coming! Our leaders lied to us!”
The accusatory leader, a Procyon with greying fur, pointed at Aaron. “Your... Your propaganda, has driven them mad! Your lies! They’re destroying the station!”
The human smiled and maintained his innocent expression. “My propaganda?” Several in the crowd held up datapads; Aaron’s smiling face was on every one. “Oh... that propaganda.”
Tsy’Lo tugged on his sleeve. “What did you do?!”
Aaron crouched down slightly. “Remember when I accidentally picked up the kids datapad and you returned it?”
“Yes…” The Tricinic flushed orange as realisation struck. “It wasn’t the child’s datapad!”
Aaron straightened up. “Yeah, thanks for helping bring down society.” He laughed as Tsy’Lo became a very opaque green hue. “Don’t worry, I’ve got an idea.”
The greying Procyon shook his fist at the human. “You better! They should throw you in a cage for the rest of your life for this. Hundreds of celes of peace, destroyed!”
Aaron looked down at the angry alien. “Your peace, not theirs.” He gestured back towards the Gardeners, and walked towards them without waiting for a reply. He raised his hands high, motioning for the unruly mob to settle down. “Alright, alright. Settle down, munchkins. So the wizard’s a liar? Welcome to reality. The Gardeners have been fighting and dying to keep you safe from the flying monkeys, while you all hide in your Emerald City and get on with your lives. That shit ends now. You’re crying out for change? Then welcome to the revolution, baby! We’re opening up the borders, we’re rejoining the rest of the galaxy! No more hiding!”
The crowd was already worked up, and cheering came easily despite the large lack of understanding. The human nodded — he was enjoying this far too much — and then gestured again for quiet. He spoke quietly at first, adding excitement to his voice as it built in power. “So prepare for a chance of a lifetime! Be prepared for sensational news!”
The Procyon official’s mouth opened and closed silently before he managed to shake his mind free of the initial shock of the human’s words. “No! Stop! What are you even saying?”
Aaron didn’t care about the official. He put the palm of his hand on their face, which easily dwarfed it in size, and gently pushed them slowly backwards. He then leapt up onto a crate; his showmanship on camera was nothing to his on-stage presence. “A shining new era is tiptoeing nearer, and where do you feature? Just listen to teacher! You’ve stagnated here for long enough. Lied to and kept in the dark, well, no more!”
The crowd was his, he knew it. The official knew it. Tsy’Lo knew it and was a nervous shade of blue. Aaron clambered from the crate to the roof of a stall, standing high above the crowd. The cheers followed every rambling sentence and, drunk on power, Aaron was loving it. “Spread the word to every planet, every station, every colony and every ship. Change is not coming, it’s here and it is now!”
The crowd roared again, and the desperate official turned to Tsy’Lo. “What in the nine moons is he talking about?”
“I’ll tell you what I’m talking about.” Aaron snapped. He stood looking out over the crowd. “I am the Ambassador of a world called Earth. I have taken ownership of a small star system that is being colonised as we speak. These colonies are a coalition of races, from within the Federation, as well as without. We rule ourselves, but have treaties and agreements with the Federation itself, as well as various individual races within it.”
Several questions were called out from the crowd, but one voice was louder than the others. “How does that help us?”
With a smile, the human walked back and forth across the roof of the stall as he spoke. “Good question my friend.” He pointed vaguely at where the voice had come from. “I do not have contact with my homeworld at this time. To ensure that all of whatever Earth has become would be included we put in place clauses for future territories, dominions, settlements etc, etc…” The crowd was quiet now, trying to follow the human’s explanation. Looking out at the blank faces Aaron realised he needed to get to the point. “Congratulations, you’re now a protectorate of Earth!”
He was met with utter silence. 
Suddenly, there were several angry yells from the crowd, some claiming this was a joke while others were simply confused. The official was the one who dared clamber to the crate below Aaron in order to yell up to him. “Are you insane?”
Aaron’s smile made Tsy’Lo shudder, as it was the same one he had given as he had explained his idea to the Gardener Queen. The human stepped forward to stand at the front of the stall roof. “I declared war on the Gardeners. The war lasted seven Earth minutes, and was quickly resolved when the Queen surrendered to me in person.”
Silence fell once again, and Aaron found himself half-yearning for the sound of crickets to emphasize the moment.
The crowd erupted once more, outrage at the ridiculous claims the strange alien was spewing forth. Tsy’Lo released a deafeningly loud harmonic whistle which was followed by another momentary quiet. They paled as the crowd's attention fell on them. “You need to listen, all of you. He is speaking the truth, sort of. He held the Queen and the Gardeners council hostage with a bomb.” Small grey particles filled the Tricinic at the memory of being used as a weapon. The crowd began to grow rowdy at this news, causing Tsy’Lo to let off another sonic blast. “It is all a human trick; once we are part of his alliance we fall under the treaties he already has in place.”
The crowd looked back up to the human. “Like I said, congratulations. You just walked in through the backdoor of a peace treaty with the Galactic Federation, and over a dozen separate treaties with other races.”
The crowd were now arguing amongst themselves. The official - who Aaron was now mentally calling Gobshite - once again challenged him. “At what cost, though? What do you get out of this?”
The smile of mischief once more graced the human’s lips and Tsy’Lo considered pulling him down from his stage. They had been on their way to the border when news of the riots on Toivoa reached them. Aaron’s presence had been demanded and he had happily accepted. The human looked almost as gleeful as that moment of acceptance when he spoke again. “Me? I get to go home. I get friends with big sticks. I get to trade openly with you, and believe me, I have a lot of crap to sell you.” He chuckled. “You get to be part of the galaxy again. You get to travel and trade. Our rules are simple and fair; everyone is equal under the law. You have exactly the same rights as everyone else who joined us. And the cost?” He paused for effect, making sure they were all paying attention. “You stand on your own two feet.” He glanced around, noting the sheer diversity of the crowd. “Or one foot... or four... Or whatever it is you’re balancing on.”
The crowd was a buzz of conversation, and Gobshite once again chimed in. “You think they’ll let us back without a fight? We can expose them! Those bastards tried to exterminate us!”
The crowd jeered along with the old Procyon. Aaron held up his hands. “Woah, woah. Only some of them. That’s the thing, there are a lot more members now. So here’s the plan: shut up. If you don’t say anything, they sure as shit aren’t going to out themselves, are they? While everyone is staring at the former Hive terror that they all feared, you guys just start working and trading, nice and quiet.”
A few murmurs of agreement came from the crowd. Gobshite, however, was more than a murmur. “You want us to forget our ancestors suffering?”
A little irritated, Aaron was more harsh than he intended. “You’ve wallowed in it long enough. Look at you, hiding for generations, keeping your communications to a minimum to avoid detection. Is this all some master plan as you build an army to seek revenge? Fuck no!” He saw the shame on their faces. “You’re happy to leave this status quo to future generations? You want to remember the suffering of your ancestors, fine, build a fucking statue. But don’t hold back your children to do it.”
The crowd were growing louder again as they discussed his words. “Look!” the human yelled. “I’m not saying you forget, or forgive. I’m saying you keep your mouths shut. We won’t announce your presence to the Federation. Instead, I want those of you looking to start something new to come join the new colonies. No big fanfares, just get on with it. In a place filled with different races, you’ll just be another stranger.”
He saw the crowd looking at each other, and knew was a lot to take in all at once. “We gather evidence, build trust. Get yourselves established, forge friendships and alliances, and become accepted as part of the new colonies. Let those in the know think their past crimes are forgotten. And when we are ready, we burn down their false history and anyone who tries to defend it!”
The crowd cheered once more, and Aaron smiled triumphantly down at Tsy'Lo as he leapt casually from the roof. As he landed, many hands patted his back and many questions were yelled, but it all ceased as one of the Gardeners stepped forward. It was Eridor, as there was no mistaking the red cape he wore. "We need to leave, the Federation have entered our space.”
Next
submitted by Sooperdude24 to HFY [link] [comments]

[Barterverse] Wealth of Planets 7: Deja Vu

RoyalRoad
Index
Previous
Next
Galactic Union HQ
"Emergency Session 18 of the Galactic Union, for the record," Secretary General Amanda Wilson said as she looked solemnly around at the hundreds of creatures in the chamber. At first, the Galactic Union headquarters were located in New York City, sharing spaces with Earth's United Nations. Then, as many other planets joined it, the UN General Assembly Hall became too small.
A new, larger facility was built at Galactic Peace Island, formerly known as Navy Island, a previously uninhabited island on the Niagara between the US and Canada. The new assembly chamber was large enough for every planet to have one permanent seat. Though some would choose to participate in its proceedings virtually, every one of them had visited its spacious halls. The structure itself represented their sacred and collective agreement to resolve their differences together, to face big challenges together, and to guard the interests of all sentience.
This was where galactic slavery was banned. This was where the first interspecies anti-piracy military ship was commissioned. This was where the ambassador of Ribb had come to humbly beg to be allowed to rejoin the galactic community.
For humans, its location and the extreme technological requirements needed to quickly construct the large hall also served as a convenient reminder to the galaxy of the importance of the species that hosted and built it.
"We have received a special petition regarding the issue of sovereignty over a member planet. I yield my time to their representative, joining us via virtual FTL comms," Amanda continued, pointing at the massive viewscreen above her.
The screen cleared, and a large parrot like face appeared with intricate red and black paint adorning its features.
"Hello Union members, my name is Mollikutta. I am the former Governor of Zakabara Second, and I am here to represent the interests of my people," she said calmly but loudly. There was a hubbub in the assembly hall. Zakabara already had a representative! Eyes began drifting towards the stunned Popptaw at the front of the chamber.
"My people of Second split off from Zakabara Prime many thousands of years ago. We have developed a distinct culture, and distinct interests. Our people no longer wish to accept the jurisdiction and administration of our planet from Prime. We would like to ask the Galactic Union to grant us sovereignty over our planet, our resources, and our space."
A loud squawk broke through the shocked chamber. It was Popptaw.
"This is ridiculous! Zakabara Second is and has been a colony of Zakabara for all of our history! I am the true representative for all of our people, all of our species, and I demand that this pretender be ignored by this chamber from here on out!"
The older species were nodding or agreeing silently. After all, Zakabara was not the only species that had a colony or two. Some younger species were looking to develop their own, and their ambassadors were now suddenly worried about whether they'd retain control over them.
Mollikutta was undeterred and continued, "unlike the representative from Zakabara Prime, I was chosen to lead our people with a majority voice vote last night."
It was not easy convincing the crowd to let her stay on with a promise of facilitating independence, with her being the symbol of the Primers on their planet for months.
The flashy entry of the humans in their helicopter at the palace grounds did the trick. Mark promised the mob elections and everything. Humans had a lot of credibility in the galaxy, with their cultural and economic exports.
At this point, there was more whispering and even some gasps in the chamber. They were all familiar with the concept of electoralism; that was how Earth and the GU conducted business, but few other species practiced it internally.
Mollikutta continued, "my people deserve the right to determine the future of our destiny, not to be treated as second class citizens by an oppressive regime from a faraway planet that does not understand our people or our problems!"
The undecided chamber looked to the great powers of the galaxy to see what they had to say.
Amanda spoke up simply, "the people of Earth stand with the people of Second."
Seeing this, Gubarak, the ambassador of Gakrek quickly followed, "Gaks stand with the people of Second."
"The Zeepils of Zeep-zep support the Seconders' right to self-determination."
Finally, an electronic tally showed an overwhelming majority of support for the independence of the people of Zakabara Second, with many older species choosing to abstain instead of casting their lot with Prime.
A subsequent vote gave the Galactic Union the powers to oversee the transition.
As Popptaw stormed angrily out of the chamber, Mollikutta wasn't sure which she found more beautiful: knowing that her people had a brighter future ahead of them, or watching the middle finger that the galaxy had just shown their other oppressors on Prime.
Construction Site 1, Gophor Spaceport
Grayin's heart sank as she saw Rey and Enrico walk over, hand in hand. She had hoped that it would take them longer to figure out what she was doing here and to start asking questions, but the growing pile of material and chopped wood frame in the lot she'd chosen wasn't easy to ignore.
After all, they were easily visible from their neighboring restaurant. And nobody liked competition.
"Hello Rey, hello Enrico" she said timidly, not wanting to start a confrontation this early in the business.
"Good morning, Grayin," Rey greeted politely, "and N'har. How are things going? Looks like you guys are building some kind of a permanent structure here. Does this have to do with the spaceport?"
From the familiar look on her face, Grayin knew the jig was up. She couldn't lie, so she tried confidence. "We're building a new restaurant building here. It'll be a two-story one, just like yours, except we'll also have a front patio. Like one I've seen on a magazine from Earth."
Rey smiled broadly and said, "that's very nice. Good luck with that! And don't go anywhere, we'll be right back in a bit."
Ah, shucks! They're gonna go get that security guard that they hang around. We should have thought of that, she thought. Maybe if we hired a couple of them, they wouldn't be messing with us.
About an hour later, to her surprise, Rey and Enrico came back not with Grob, but with a plastic folder with a stack of papers held in it.
"These are the contact information for the construction contractors we had on Earth for the more advanced issues we had when we were building our restaurant," Rey said. Handing her the folder, she added "and we've got our blueprints in there in case you need inspiration, as well as some interior design ideas. And let us know when you need help with water, electricity, and waste management."
"Huh?" Grayin was dumbfounded.
"You said you're constructing a new building here, right?" Enrico asked affably.
"Yes. But why are you helping us?" she asked suspiciously. Surely, they couldn't be naive enough to not recognize the obvious site of a future competitor, right?
"Oh, we're not worried about the competition if that's what you're thinking," Enrico smiled. Then he added, "besides, N'har here helped us out a bunch when we were building our business." He went over and patted the stunned N'har on the shoulders. "It's about time we returned the favor."
Grayin was not sure if she'd gone crazy, or if it were just these two humans. Perhaps it was both.
They were not crazy.
Having gone to Hamburger University, Rey was familiar with the clustering effect. Enrico, who had been to a street lined with restaurants, also intuitively understood its existence. Hell, even the food vendors at the spaceport market knew this subconsciously.
Businesses tend to cluster. For a long time, economists ignored this tendency because economists were generally not businesspeople. In the 1980s, as the field of business strategy really began to hit its stride, some of them started to take notice and study the effects of clusters.
Why do businesses open up next to each other even though they'd face the stiffest competition there? As it turns out, the reason mostly has to do with economies of scale.
When you ship something, like say napkins, to a hundred restaurants on a hundred different streets, it is costly. Far costlier than shipping napkins to a hundred restaurants on a single street. Apply that to every consumable good or maintenance need of every restaurant, and what ends up happening is that the cost of doing business in a cluster turns out to be much lower than outside. Sure, there may be strong competition, but clusters also increase foot traffic, which increases the overall pool of customers.
This also happens on the labor side. That's why so many IT workers live in the Silicon Valley, why so many prospective actors and actresses live in Hollywood, and why so many jewelers live in Antwerp. In the even longer run, successful clusters make successful cities, and successful cities rake in profits for its businesses.
In the case of Gophor, Rey and Enrico could not wait for the spaceport to develop a food court, with an even cheaper supply chain for imported goods from Earth. Additionally, the only logical move for these new buildings later on would be to hook up their utilities to their infrastructure. That would not only decrease their own cost but possibly allow them to earn a profit off that early investment.
And it was certainly going to happen sooner or later, so why not maintain a good relationship with the folks who were about to maintain a large workforce and potential customers in the area?
They offered the working Gaks some free ice cream (luckily, the ice cream machine was not broken that day), and went back to work.
Four Months Later
Grayin designated her new buildings Site 1, Site 2, and Site 3. They lined up side-by-side next to the next to the existing McDonald's building. Because many of the construction Gaks who were on her projects also worked with Rey, they were familiar with many of the human invented building techniques that were required.
They could employ more workers with their lower pay, and after a short four months, the exterior for Site 1 was mostly completed. After a risky operation that shut down McDonald's itself for a weekend, they also managed to hook their building onto Rey's "utility company".
After they celebrated the building's completion, the first thing they did was to ask Rey and Enrico whether they had an idea who on Earth would be interested in their new building. For reasons she and N'har still could not understand, the humans had been genuinely helpful and seemed utterly honest about their intentions to help her succeed.
"Hmmm," Rey thought out loud when they asked, "there are a few restaurants that could really round out this spaceport. I think your best bet for the most money would be some kind of a luxury or fine dining establishment for traders."
"Yeah, when we started, there were barely enough traders to make us profitable on them alone," Enrico completed her thought. Then he explained, "we got lucky that our business is cheap enough for locals. Now most of our business is with Gaks. But with how many bigger ships are coming in with larger crews, I think you could definitely sustain a restaurant that charged higher prices for less volume."
Grayin had seen human commercials for fine dining restaurants. Big empty spaces between tables, fixed courses, and very fancy service. She wasn't sure that it would be the right business model for Gophor, even with the increase in foot traffic. And she knew next to nothing about starting a restaurant business. But she didn't have to run it. She just had to rent it to someone who would.
"Okay," Grayin decided, then asked, "so who would you suggest we contact for someone who would be interested?"
Rey thought about it for a while, but she realized she didn't know. Her contacts really didn't extend much beyond the company she'd work for her entire life. She replied honestly, "I don't know. You could contact Izzy, who we got to handle our rental deal, and ask her if she could give you a recommendation. That's what I'd do."
After getting Isabella's contact information, Grayin and N'har thanked them and started strategizing the call.
Chicago, Earth
"It's another alien trying to rent us property on line three, Izzy," her secretary said to her calmly, as if this was something he did every week.
In a way, it was. Thousands of planets had seen what happened on Gakrek with Rey's franchise. If they were not innovative, at least they could copy. Isabella had to reject many good offworld deals that just didn't have the right infrastructure or didn't make business sense, especially on the smaller spaceports.
She did pretty well for herself too. New corner office. New secretary. New frequent flier card for the recently opened Galactic Express chartered flight company, for when she needed to inspect prospective renters or sellers.
"From where?" she asked smoothly. She had one of those galactic maps projected onto her office wall, with flags on some of her acquisitions. Some school aged kids are learning galactic geography now, but a textbook couldn't teach you which planets had the best economic conditions and on which ones the bribes were cheaper. No, that's what Wikipedia was for.
"It appears to be Gakrek," her secretary replied, "Gophor Spaceport."
Isabella frowned. That's where Rey's franchise was. She wasn't sure there were enough local customers there to support two franchises, and if it did, expanding the spaceport one would probably be the smarter move. She picked up the phone. "Hello, this is Isabella at Franchise Realty Corporation, how may I help you today?"
"Hello Isabella, my name is Grayin. I am from Gophor, on Gakrek. I am a friend of Rey, and I am trying to rent out my property. She said you might be able to recommend someone we could talk to," came her translated voice through the phone.
"Sure," Isabella said, looking up contacts on her tablet. It would be nice to do Rey a favor here. After all, Rey had kickstarted her own offworld real estate career. "What kind of business are you looking for?"
"Oh, it's very similar to Rey's building. We have an additional patio out front with space for outside seating, but other than that, it's pretty much the same. She even let us use her blueprints. We're hoping to find a fine dining business willing to take it on," Grayin replied, mirroring what the humans told her earlier.
"I see," Isabella replied, still searching but suddenly paying a lot more attention to this conversation. She could add two and two together. If this was a completed building just like their existing franchise and this was a friend of Rey's, the business opportunities here were… "Just out of curiosity, how much are you looking to charge for rent?"
Caught slightly off guard, Grayin answered honestly, "we thought we could charge 120,000 credits a month to a big chain, a little more than Rey's because we have more space."
Holy smokes, Isabella thought, another unbelievably great deal. Gophor was just the gift that kept on giving. Normally, her managers wouldn't approve a deal renting another piece of real estate right next to one of their franchises for fear of cannibalizing their own business, but commercial real estate was their bread-and-butter moneymaker. Who cares what fine dining restaurant the folks upstairs would eventually decide to sublet this out to? They wouldn't turn down a free win like this one.
"In that case, I think I might actually be interested in your space," Isabella said, putting down her tablet. "When are you free to do a walkthrough?"
Site 1, Gophor Spaceport
Grayin and N'har watched warily as the spaceport manager entered the front of their newly built construction. It was Garber. Grayin knew exactly what he was there for.
"Welcome to our new building, Garber," she greeted him at the door with a neutral tone, "how can we help you?"
"Ah, Grayin. It's nice to see you," Garber said in a grating snivel, "you look well. I was sad to see you leave our space traffic control tower."
You probably just missed skimming off my salary, Grayin fumed, but kept that part to herself.
He continued, "as you know very well, we have a tradition of maintaining our spaceport here on the donations of our merchants. I'm here to assess a suitable amount for your new store."
"How much do you have in mind?" N'har asked.
Garber looked over as if he'd just noticed N'har's presence, and stroked his snout thoughtfully. He knew he wildly undercharged the humans in the other store. He would not make the same mistake here.
Garber didn't know how much Rey's franchise was actually taking in income, but he thought a ten times increase would be a fairly safe bet. "I think we can start at five hundred fifty credits a month," he sniffed, "that seems reasonable to me."
Both Grayin and N'har managed to keep their composure at this incredibly low figure that represented less than 0.5% of the deal they were going to sign with Isabella later.
N'har glanced to his left, where he noticed Grayin was already taking out her wallet. He gave her a slight shake of his head and sent her a telepathic "no" with his eyes. He would rather Garber not come back with a higher "donation" request every time they built a new building here.
N'har pretended to haggle with Garber, "that seems like a lot of money, Garber. I hear Rey pays much less than that. And we're going to build several more buildings here in the future."
Garber chewed on that thought for a while. After all, he was a reasonable and logical Gak. If what they were saying is true, there will be plenty more credits to extract from them in the future.
"Hmm, in that case, I can give you a discount. Five hundred credits a month," Garber said generously, then added, "but you have to donate that same amount for every new building you put on my spaceport. That's my final offer. We all want your business to be successful."
N'har almost had to stop Grayin from throwing her GC card at Garber.
Constellar Contracting started as a mercenary company on Earth, increasingly taking over the combat roles in humanity's numerous small wars. Due to limited oversight on their operations, they were able to aggressively expand during the early 21st century.
Unfortunately for them, peace came to Earth. It wasn't full utopian world peace, but with economic booms happening on every corner of the globe and weather patterns stabilizing with humanity's fix for climate change, there was less motivation for planetary conflict.
So Constellar turned to the stars. Even in the great galactic Pax Hominum brought on by Earth's economic expansions, there were plenty of opportunities out there for a corporation offering premium security solutions.
After all, there were plenty of conflicts and business to go around in a galaxy of thousands of planets. Olgix was merely one of them.
Territorial Space, Zakabara Second
"Space Lord, we have an incoming communication for you!"
Canouah, the great Space Lord of Zakabara, looked at his subordinate with surprise. His underlings were getting very good at their tasks and normally did not need micromanaging to enforce this months-long blockade. Annoyed, he said, "very well, open it."
"This is Commandant Marie Laurent of the French Space Force, representing the Galactic Union Peacekeeping Force. We are here to enforce our mandate under explicit invitation from the government of Zakabara Second, to ensure that their legal territorial space remains clear of hostile ships. And to facilitate the resumption of trade to the planet. Please stand down your ships and vacate this area within twenty four hours to ensure a peaceful transition of power. Thank you for your cooperation."
Then the human connection cut out without waiting for a reply.
"Someone get me planetary command!"
"How many ships do they have?" Popptaw asked from the viewscreen. Clearly, fighting her way out of this situation was in her instinct.
"Unknown. We could only find the source of the one ship that brought the message, but once they ended their transmission, they sped into a debris field and vanished among the trash," cursed Canouah. He had heard about how Earth ships could disappear like a worm in the mud, but hadn't truly believed it until he saw with his own two eyes. "We can't fight an enemy we do not see, with weapons we can't match, and numbers we don't know."
"So we just give up? We spend all that time and resources building a space fleet for you, and they mean absolutely nothing just because Earth sends maybe one ship?!" Popptaw asked furiously.
"No, we can move back to Prime and protect our home from the humans for when they invade us," Canouah said sadly, "but we can't engage them offensively in deep space around Second. It will just be a waste of ships, and as far as we know, they can build many more of them than we can. We should pull our ships back to defend home."
"No!" Popptaw screeched. "You won't take one step backwards from our defense of OUR system! That's an order!"
"What do you want me to do? Just shoot randomly at empty space until we hit something?" the exasperated space Lord asked. Then, looking at the phone, he realized she'd already hung up.
"What do we do, space Lord?" one of his loyal lieutenants asked, looking at him for guidance on the ambiguous and clearly stupid order.
Canouah thought for a while. Then he had an idea, "we'll wait out the twenty-four hour time limit. If we see any of them, we'll shoot at a couple of them and tell Popptaw we tried. Then we pull back. I'm not going to let thousands of my birds die just because she forgot to take her pills this morning."
Gophor Spaceport, Gakrek
"Do you think we should tell them they're pretty much getting fleeced by Izzy?" Enrico asked, looking out their second story window at their neighbors celebrating the deal signing.
"Nah, it's not that bad for them. One hundred twenty is below market value, but they'll still make their startup costs back in less than half a year," his girlfriend replied. "Besides, no need to go over and ruin their party. They'll learn to charge a higher price next time. Just like how Izzy learned to put that new utility clause in offworld deals."
Most of Grayin's family and friends were here to join in on the celebration. N'har's clan was back on Yis'Meh, but they would be sure to celebrate with them later as well.
"Chug! Chug! Chug!" the crowd yelled at N'har as he guzzled down his mug of Earth imported beer. They didn't live on a wealthy planet, but nobody ever accused the Gaks of not knowing how to have fun.
In one quick motion, he quickly drained his cup, and then turned around to plant a big sloppy kiss on the sensitive snout of a surprised Grayin.
The crowd went silent for a second.
Then, unanimously, they roared their approval in a loud cheer.
A beet-red Grayin returned the favor.
Territorial Space, Zakabara Second
"We see a ping again, commander!" Rekala reported. The humans had some strange technology that allowed them to disappear into the background of orbital debris around Second, but from time to time, they would show up on the radar as they maneuvered.
His commander mulled over this latest development and her orders.
"How far are they from us?" she asked.
Frowning at the radar, Rekala replied, "The ship radar thinks it might be about 320 kilometers away, but its signature is weak and that's at the very edge of our detection range."
"Are they within the MAR?" she asked. This was a loan word borrowed from humans. Many of their technology had been public knowledge, and the nerd birds who scoured the Internet for valuable information had found an air-to-air combat tactical guide.
It became standard training material for Zakabaran spacecraft crews. In this case, MAR stood for Minimum Abort Range. It's the range at which the target would no longer be able to avoid missiles fired from the spacecraft by firing their thrusters.
"No, commander, way out. They'll have over half a minute to respond if we fire now," Rekala replied.
His commander contemplated the information. Their standing orders were to fire warning shots at the humans, but not to destroy them. She doubted that was even possible in the first place.
"Alright, let's load up our missile and fire it at the signature. Let's see what they do."
At the very least, this should be a training experience for the crew. Like most of the Zakabaran fleet, they'd only fired a missile once before, and they had to retrieve and top up the fuel in it after the exercise. Some crews had not even been allowed to train with the system at all.
"I have a lock, commander," Rekala said. He didn't want to start an interplanetary war today. But he wasn't going to disobey orders.
"Fire," she said with more certainty. He depressed the trigger.
An indigenous copy of an old human missile slid out of the cargo bay.
And then, nothing happened. It just sat there.
"What the hell?" Rekala exclaimed, "it worked last time!"
When air-to-air missiles were invented on Earth, they encountered many issues. Early missiles were generally unreliable.
One of those problem missiles was the American-made AIM-4 Falcon. The Falcon had bad combat performance. It was designed to shoot down enemy bombers rather than fighters. It ended up doing neither. The American planes that could only carry missiles, specifically the Falcon, were often outclassed in dogfights by Soviet made planes over Vietnam. It achieved few combat kills.
The biggest problem with early experimental Falcons was that it was completely enclosed in a tube before deployment, so it could only lock-on after launch. This meant that early tests of the Falcon involved firing the missile at where you see the enemy planes, and then hoping that the seeker on the Falcon would also see and track the target on the way.
This was the model that the Zakabarans copied. However, the engineers on Prime were not stupid. They knew this was an issue from the start. They solved this problem on their copied missile; it had a radio that allowed it to communicate targets with the ship's radar before it fired. The lock-on could be done before firing.
The second biggest problem with Falcon was that the seeker was slow because its coolant took a long time to cool. It would take many precious seconds to lock onto enemy planes. The engineers on Prime disregarded this problem. This made sense because ships would have plenty of time to see the enemy in space before they were in range. Combat in space happened much more slowly than in an atmosphere.
Unfortunately for Rekala and his crew, the coolant in the radar seeker was consumed as it tracked a target. After they fired their missile in the training exercise, they retrieved it and topped off the fuel. They did not refill the liquid nitrogen for the seeker.
When the missile deployed, its radar turned towards what the ship told it was an ugly human target… and saw absolutely nothing.
"Alright, let's get out of here before the humans see us!"
"They're moving away from us now," the sensor operator reported to Lt Col Riku.
"Hmm… I wonder if they even saw us."
University of Zakabara Prime
"So they can only be fired once?!" Canouah shouted at the lead engineer angrily.
"Well… if you want to use it again, you need to refill the coolant as well," she told him.
"Why weren't we made aware of this?!"
"You never asked! We didn't realize that you were going to fire them multiple times! And oh yeah, you may need to manually reset the onboard computer."
"What?!" Canouah asked, confused. "Why the computer?"
The engineer fidgeted uncomfortably and explained, "there were some bad memory leaks in the guidance program, so we just doubled the onboard memory and figured that it was a problem that would solve itself when they hit their targets and exploded."
That… was simultaneously the most brilliant and idiotic thing he'd ever heard.
Canouah shot her a withering glare, and then he picked up his radio to his lieutenant. "Yeah, pull back our ships to the line the humans drew. All our ships. We need time to refit and rearm them."
"If we start a fight out there now, we'll do no better than the frogheads."
This marks the end of the Gakrek arc, but their impact will still be seen in subsequent chapters.
The missile memory leak is a reference to a commonly known engineer meme/story. Here it is in its entirety:
I was once working with a customer who was producing on-board software for a missile. In my analysis of the code, I pointed out that they had a number of problems with storage leaks. Imagine my surprise when the customers chief software engineer said "Of course it leaks". He went on to point out that they had calculated the amount of memory the application would leak in the total possible flight time for the missile and then doubled that number. They added this much additional memory to the hardware to "support" the leaks. Since the missile will explode when it hits it's target or at the end of it's flight, the ultimate in garbage collection is performed without programmer intervention.
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NPA ASTS SpaceMobile 🚀🛰 The Financials 📱🌔

Let’s get straight to the point. The idea of my analysis is to evaluate the present value of a NPA share based on current public information. Rather I should say a range of value depending on the multiples we are comfortable to apply to a disruptive business model and its risk profile. I will address the elephant in the room which is “how do we know that the technology does work?” simply by saying that we the general public don’t because they have decided not to disclose it. Which actually justify that they have started the unit at $10.00 whereas the potential is much higher. In that sense it is similar to a Real Option like would be a new cash-burning pharmaceutical company trying to come up with a new product through phases in order to reach profitability.
It might be a longer than thought OP - let’s see how I feel - so buckle up because we literally rocketing to the stratosphere.
Important disclaimer: my methodology is based on my experience and the information publicly available including data and financial projections published by the company. In consequence I have less knowledge than people sitting on the board or working at the company. And I am not a space engineer whatsoever. This is my personal view and not a recommendation to buy or sell any discussed securities.
I will often refer to their Investor Presentation PDF
The Technology
So the idea is that “SpaceMobile will be the first space-based mobile network to connect directly to 4G and 5G smartphones without any need for specialized hardware. Traditional satellite systems require expensive specialized satellite phones or ground antenna systems, which is different to AST SpaceMobile’s patented technology, where all that is needed is the phone in your pocket.”
But how? well the company has decided not to disclose it as you can read on their website: “With over 750 patent claims, the technology is highly proprietary, and exactly how it works cannot be disclosed. We can say that our engineers have designed an entirely new form factor and deployment method that significantly reduce the time and costs associated with manufacturing, launching and operating satellites.
AST designed and patented a modular LEO satellite system (Low Earth-Orbit) that will be significantly less costly to build and launch than legacy satellite systems. Because of its uniqueness and proprietary nature, the company cannot disclose more specifics at this time.”
So we the general public do not have access to their patented technology but the early investors do. And in the light of that they have decided to invest an initial $128m. In our position we can not affirm that the tech will or will not work. But ASTS’ BlueWalker 1 satellite launched in April 2019 to test SpaceMobile tech has apparently demonstrated enough success or at least promises to attract sizeable investments.
Abel Avellan (we’ll call him AA) the foundeCEO of ASTS sounds quite resolute on his tech as in this Youtube video at the minute 3:00 he says “Nobody has cracked this code before. It’s technically very very challenging. It requires also the willingness to think differently. But the good news is we have actually solved the issue.”
Furthermore on his interview with IPO Edge in January 2021 AA said “I have spent 20 years in the space industry creating broadband solutions for companies, governments and individuals in hard-to-reach places and long ago realized that the requirement for a fixed or mobile antennas to land satellite signals has been a clear obstacle to universal broadband access. In 2016, we came on with the idea to solve the key technological challenge of connecting an ordinary phone to a satellite. When I realized that was possible, I reassembled my core scientist team and personally funded the project at its early stages.”
AA adds that ”as designed, AST SpaceMobile connects directly with mobile phones using cellular spectrum, rather than adopting the approach of other satellite companies (both old and new), which require the installation of a secondary satellite dish or a special satellite phone using satellite spectrum, like the bands L, C, Ku and Ka.”
The Billionaire Board
Who are the early investors? Cisneros, Vodafone, Rakuten, Samsung Next, American Tower have all joined forces with AA.
Are expected to sit on the board of new ASTS the following individuals:
• Hiroshi Mickey Mikitani - foundeCEO of Rakuten in Japan - Net Worth $7bn
• Adriana Cisneros - CEO of Cisneros - Net Worth $4bn
• Luke Ibbetson - big boss of Vodafone R&D since 2013
• Edward Knapp - CTO of American Tower
• Richard Sarnoff - Chairman of KKR Media - newly added after NPA initial IPO
• AA - Net Worth yet to be determined as he will retain 43% shares of new ASTS - around $1bn now
• Plus a few other exec from NPA, Rakuten etc.
My point being that the board is a bunch of actual big players betting on the success of SpaceMobile. Billionaire individuals running billionaire companies. And I believe they are not into this for a quick double bagger. They are here for the long term to potentially dominate the global market of mobile network. By the way they all agreed to a one-year lock-up to their shares from the Closing (merger date). With a little exception for the Sponsor who will be able to “transfer” up to a 1/3 of its shares after 150 days after Closing if price > $12.00 for any 20/30 trading days (for reference that’s circa 1% of total shares prior to Warrants exercise or any new shares issuance).
Anyway the idea is that the big guys are in this for the bigger picture. I will quote Mickey Mikitani to illustrate: “Our investment is part of our broader strategy to become a leading mobile network operator in Japan and a global solution provider to markets around the world.”
Now I will not get into Space technicalities but my basic understanding is that once you have a constellation of LEO sats you would be able to offer your services around the world so to speak and not be limited to your home country of operation. So for Rakuten that might be their golden ticket to access a global market. And for Vodafone to further extend their market share (from this project VOD aims to cover the 49 largest countries in the equatorial regions to start with - phase 1).
Quick note that Cisneros while being the first major investor with $10m injected as early as July 2018 does not appear in the Public Presentation PDF as a strategic investor. Yet she will sit on the board. So I do not know what’s her strategy.
The Numbers
First of all ASTS is a B2B model. They will provide a service to the phone companies who will then offer it to the end consumers. AA says it better: ”Our only direct customers are the wireless providers, with whom we already have agreements that cover approximately 1.3bn subscribers, representing approximately 25% of the mobile phones in use globally. Approximately 800 million of these subscribers are covered under mutually exclusive, binding agreements.”
For example Vodafone will offer the SpaceMobile to their consumers for $2 per month in Ghana (approximate pricing for illustration purposes). A dollar stays with VOD and a dollar goes to ASTS in a 50/50 deal. This is your Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and this is how we will build our model to evaluate the company.
We now need to figure out the timeline. BlueWalker 1 was launched in April 2019 to test the tech. Next they are planning to launch one BlueWalker 3 (BW3) in 2021 to further test the tech. Note that we jumped from BW1 to BW3 directly. At the moment we have not a precise date for the first BW3 launch only a mention of late 2021. In 2022 Phase 1 the Equatorial Constellation will be deployed with a launch of 20 BW3 - they will also need countries approvals for all the territories covered. Note that they already have some approvals and it’s a typical process for telecommunications services. Then in 2023 should be the commercial use of Phase 1 when ASTS starts to generate revenue.
From 2024 they are planning to scale up the network:
• Phase 2: 45 Satellites North America, Europe and Asia
• Phase 3: 45 Satellites Full global coverage
• Phase 4: 58 Satellites Full global MIMO coverage with faster data rates
For a grand total of 168 BW3 satellites planned.
Back to the ARPU now. There will be different pricing whether the customer is in an Equatorial country (cheaper) or in US / Europe (costlier). And therefore mid-prices in between in line with the targeted population buying power. As they have decided to start with the Equatorial Constellation to implement and fine tune their technology, the monthly ARPU at the beginning will be moderate and will increase with time and deployment of the global constellation.
From this moment on we will be talking of financial projections as anticipated by the company. So these numbers are just an example of what they think will happen in terms of number of customers acquired and pricing. The Equatorial ARPU to be $1.03. The US Europe ARPU $7.62. And the global/total ARPU (weighted average) to be $1.68 at the start in 2023 to increase over the years and stabilise around $2.21.
Therefore 2021 and 2022 will see no revenue. And in 2023 ASTS hopes to attract 9 million total subscribers at a monthly ARPU of $1.68 (or yearly ARPU of $20.16) so that would be $181m 2023Expected total revenue. Against an anticipated operation expenses of $51m they will have an $130m 2023E EBITDA.
In 2024 they expect 44m customers at $2.02 monthly ARPU for a revenue of $1,070m vs an OpEx of $56m to get an 2024E EBITDA of $1,014m (basically a billion $). And this anticipated $1bn 2024E EBITDA is the main figure they highlight to estimate their present value.
I want to include as well the 2025 EBITDA for our valuation exercise. But no further date than 2025 as deeper we go into time and more deviation we are likely to suffer. So again the company’s best guess is 108m customers at $2.02 monthly ARPU and they see an 2025E EBITDA of $2.5bn (circa 150% yearly increase). At this point we have not discussed the CapEx needs nor the Free Cash Flow but we will get there.
Pro Forma Shares Outstanding:
• NPA: 23,000,000 Common A
• PIPE: 23,000,000 Common A
• Sponsor: 5,750,000 Common A
• Existing AST holders (ex AA): 51,636,922 Common B
• AA shares: 78,163,078 Common C
For a total of 181,550,000 new ASTS shares. For info 11,500,000 public warrants and 6,100,000 private warrants (sum 17.6M).
From the transaction PIPE has brought $230m and SPAC cash $232m (sum $462m) minus $39m expenses. Net proceeds of $423m.
PF Equity Value = $10.00 x 181.55M shares = $1,816m
PF Enterprise Value (EV) = PF Equity Value - Net Proceeds = 1,816 - 423 = $1,393m
From this point we have an EV of $1.4bn at $10 per share (assuming no redemption) so that’s the number we gonna play with.
In their presentation the company has decided to use a valuation via multiples in which EV = EBITDA x X
where X is a multiple observed across broad industry competitors
Given that SpaceMobile will have an unique business model and first-mover advantage in an innovative technology (literally in space), the range of multiples will be by nature subjective. We can only try to guess what the market will be happy to pay. And each individual investor will have his own multiple she/he is comfortable with.
In their PDF they have selected a few companies broadly comparable. Starting with one of the most analogous which is Iridium (satellite business) who trades at circa 14x EV/EBITDA with 60% margins. Space-tourism Virgin Galactic has 33x with 57% margins. Highly-competitive Telcos have 8x and 36% margins. Cable 11x 42%. And Towers business 24x 65%. And let’s just ignore the other SPACs comparisons simply because that’s totally different businesses.
So we can see that we have a broad range of multiples from saturated Telcos at 8x all the way up to forward-looking space promenades at 33x. We can anticipate that ASTS would trade somewhere in that range once they are an established cash-generating business (still a long way to go right). SpaceMobile is also saying that they will be able to produce 90%+ margins (they even mention up to 98%). This point is highly debatable but we shall play along and consider that indeed it may happen.
The company has decided to choose the 14x multiple same as Iridium in their example. So they say in 2024 when they expect to have a billion $ EBITDA their EV should be 14x $1bn. Quick maths that’s $14bn in future value that you need to bring back in today’s dollars. They choose a standard 20% discount rate (NB: 1.23) and say in 2021 our fair value EV should be $8.2bn if everything goes by the plan/timeline and if 14x is a fair multiple. This EV number is to be compared to the initial EV of $1.4bn at $10 and the now EV of $2.24bn at $16. In other words an EV of $8.2bn would imply a share price of $58 (both numbers in 2021 value).
Now let’s tweak the range and see what we got in a reader-friendly format (multiple, share price in 2021):
8x $33 (Telcos multiple)
10x $41 (Cable multiple)
12x $50
14x $58 (Iridium multiple)
16x $66
20x $83
24x $99 (Towers multiple)
33x $136 (Virgin Galactic multiple)
At this point it’s important to discuss the discount rate. 20% is the industry standard when we talk about pre-revenue businesses as there is a lot of risks and uncertainties. In this particular case given that the technology will be deployed in space we could increase the expected rate of return to stress test the numbers. At 30% you get 10x $33 / 14x $46 / 20x $65 / 24x $78. And at 50% 10x $21 / 14x $30 / 20x $42 / 24x $51. Allow me to reiterate that there is a multitude of risks associated with SpaceMobile business model so these figures are just illustrative and based on favourable conditions.
The Cash Burn
They need a lot of money. We have previously established that they had raised $128m before. And upon Closing they shall receive an extra $423m (before redemption). These $551m will be enough to finance Phase 1. After that they will need cash for Phase 2, 3 and 4. To be honest it is not exactly clear how much because they are saying two different things in their PDF. Implied by the financial projections they would need an extra $1,150m. But later they write projected CapEx needs of $1.4bn to fund subsequent network build (Phase 2+) through 2024 and future CapEx expected to be funded through a potential mix of debt / equity, subject to market conditions.
And from the Prelim Proxy we can read the following: AST will need to raise additional capital to continue developing and launching satellites to complete subsequent phases of the SpaceMobile Service. AST expects to raise additional funds through the issuance of equity, equity related or debt securities, or through obtaining credit from government or financial institutions. This capital may be necessary to fund its ongoing operations, continue research, development and design efforts, improve infrastructure, and launch satellites. AST cannot be certain that additional funds will be available to it on favorable terms if required, or at all. If AST cannot raise additional funds when needed, its financial condition, results of operations, business and prospects could be materially adversely affected.
Fair enough. I also would like to bring to your attention that in their projections they have used Unlevered Free Cash Flow which excludes the impact of interest payments originated from debt. That’s understandable because they do not know as of now if they will raise debt but on the other hand that shows a rosier picture in terms of cash needs. In reality if they decide to go through some debt it will then use a bit more cash.
Either way dilution and/or leverage are certain.
The NASA imbroglio
I’ll go quick on this one. NASA initially thought that AST SpaceMobile’s space-based cellular network could pose a significant collision threat to some of their satellites (as asked by IPO Edge). To which AA replied technical teams at NASA and AST SpaceMobile have agreed to collaborate and share operational information regarding respective space assets. Following NASA’s initial comments on our FCC application, we privately disclosed comprehensive detail on our system to NASA, which led to this agreement. After these discussions, NASA formally notified the FCC that it does not have any pending objection to our application. We anticipate continuing to maintain a great working relationship with NASA moving forward, as we share the mutual goal of safe and responsible operations within space.
Looks like it’s all clear.
a Potential SpaceX Buzz
ASTS needs to launch at least 168 satellites. They have drawn a list of potential launch partners including Papa Musk SpaceX and Jeff Bezos Blue Origin (among others). I imagine that given Elon’s popularity as he usually tweets often around launches it could bring more attention and light to SpaceMobile.
ARKX momentum
Queen Cathie Wood announced plans to start the Space Exploration ETF ARKX. I believe it was on the 13th of January. The filing explained the four categories of companies that will be in ARKX.
“Orbital Aerospace Companies are companies that launch, make, service, or operate platforms in the orbital space, including satellites and launch vehicles.
Suborbital Aerospace Companies are companies that launch, make, service, or operate platforms in the suborbital space, including drones, air taxis and electric aviation vehicles.
Enabling Technologies Companies are companies that create the technologies required for successful value-add aerospace operations, including artificial intelligence, robotics, 3D printing, materials and energy storage.
Aerospace Beneficiary Companies are companies that stand to benefit from aerospace activities, including agriculture, internet access, global positioning system (GPS), construction and imaging.”
It gave a huge boost to space-related stocks and now people are speculating whether NPA ASTS will be included in ARKX. I obviously have no knowledge of it. But my totally random and naive guess is that there is a high probability that it would. The question really would be when. Before or after the merger? Before or after the launch of the first BW3? I imagine we will know soon enough.
Too Long DR
SpaceMobile CEO is saying that they cracked the code to create a direct network from satellites to smartphones without the need of antennas. They wanna keep the tech secret for now.
The Board and early investors are big players committed to stay invested.
It will take time and money to launch all the satellites needed to start the constellation.
If ASTS manages to execute its plan in a timely manner then the company would potentially have a lot of upside.
They will need to raise additional money - around two times more of what they already got (upon closing).
They will have no revenue until 2023 - and significant EBITDA would be generated only from 2024.
Space-enabled companies are gaining momentum.
ASTS is positioned to benefit from a first-mover advantage with an hard-to-replicate technology and service.
Open Thread
I keep this space open for future additions and discussions.
Link to Prelim Proxy
edit1: bullet points formatting
submitted by Rivaaal to SPACs [link] [comments]

Great DD on XXII - Plant biotech company working with cannabis/tobacco/various other plants. Huge catalysts coming soon.

Great DD on XXII - Plant biotech company working with cannabis/tobacco/various other plants. Huge catalysts coming soon.

Image from 2/4
XXII is a plant biotechnology company working primarily with tobacco and hemp/cannabis.
"Our primary mission in tobacco is to reduce the harm caused by smoking by bringing our proprietary reduced nicotine content tobacco cigarettes – containing 95% less nicotine than conventional cigarettes – to adult smokers in the U.S. and international markets."
"Our primary mission in hemp/cannabis is to develop proprietary hemp/cannabis plants with valuable cannabinoid profiles and agronomic traits and to commercialize those plants through a synergistic portfolio of strategic partnerships in the hemp/cannabis industry."
XXII can achieve these things through methods mentioned in their patents. They have patents for controlling nicotine production in tobacco, but they also have patents to control the production of cannabinoids and terpenes in the cannabis plant.
"We are delighted to receive this patent, which is the result of work carried out by our own scientists. This important, new technology will allow us to genetically modify hemp/cannabis plants to modulate their cannabinoid and terpene profiles in order to tailor these plants’ therapeutic qualities and enhance the consumer’s hemp/cannabis experience," said Juan Sanchez Tamburrino, Ph.D., vice president of research & development at 22nd Century Group. "Our patent application describes eight promoters, which are essentially molecular on/off switches, covering all of the major steps in the cannabinoid biosynthesis pathway. Typically, developing hemp/cannabis plants with new cannabinoid or terpene profiles could take 10 to 20 years using traditional breeding methods. Now, with the combined technologies and know-how of 22nd Century and KeyGene, we expect to shorten the development timeline to create new, differentiated, hemp/cannabis plant lines in just 4 to 5 years. Doing so will provide the Company and its potential licensees and customers with significant competitive advantage as hemp/cannabis continues to penetrate the life science, consumer product, and pharmaceutical markets.”

“We are very pleased to receive this patent which reflects the ingenuity and expertise of our talented scientific team. This new technology allows us to reduce nicotine in any tobacco variety. Importantly, this breakthrough further demonstrates that the FDA’s Comprehensive Plan for Tobacco and Nicotine Regulation to limit the nicotine content of all cigarettes sold in the United States is technically feasible and at the same time refutes the claim from ‘Big Tobacco’ that such low nicotine levels cannot be achieved in multiple tobacco varieties,” said James A. Mish, chief executive officer of 22nd Century Group. “I am proud of the significant R&D gains we continue to make as we work to achieve our mission to reduce the harm caused by smoking and seek to significantly disrupt the $100 billion U.S. and the $800 billion global tobacco industries with our proprietary reduced nicotine tobacco products.”
The new patent and allowed claims, published as U.S. Patent No. 10,669,552 and entitled “Up-regulation of auxin response factor NbTF7 to decrease nicotine in a plant,” cover methods of manipulating plant metabolism and alkaloid levels by controlling transcription factor NbTF7, which regulates the nicotinic alkaloid biosynthetic pathway. The patent enables the Company’s use of next-generation gene modification technologies that afford greater flexibility for genetic control over nicotine levels in virtually any variety of the tobacco plant.

EDIT - 2/10/2021 -

22nd Century Group and KeyGene Launch Advanced Cannabis Technology Platform for Accelerated Development of New Varieties of Hemp/Cannabis Plants with Commercially Valuable Traits

"22nd Century Group announced today that it has developed and launched a new, cutting-edge technology platform that will enable the Company and its strategic partners to quickly identify and incorporate commercially valuable traits of hemp/cannabis plants to create new, stable hemp/cannabis lines. The platform incorporates a suite of proprietary molecular tools and a large library of genomic markers and gene-trait correlations. The platform was developed in collaboration with researchers at KeyGene, a global leader in plant research involving high-value genetic traits and increased crop yields.
This is a major breakthrough. Quickly and easily identifying the genes responsible for specific traits in a plant is a powerful tool for 22nd Century Group and the hemp/cannabis industry as a whole,” said James A. Mish, chief executive officer of 22nd Century Group. “That is why we are even now beginning discussions to license this platform to strategic partners to help them improve their plant breeding techniques and to optimize their hemp/cannabis cultivars. We continue to make great advancements through our partnership with KeyGene, and this newly developed molecular breeding platform has the potential to result in exponential growth for the Company’s revenues and create new value opportunities for our stakeholders, including shareholders.”
"Using this new breeding technology, 22nd Century has already characterized millions of high-value single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). SNPs are molecular markers or guideposts within a plant’s genome that indicate important variations in Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) sequences. Targeting these newly identified SNPs, 22nd Century was able to locate and isolate specific sections of genetic code from genome assemblies present in the Company’s state-of-the-art hemp/cannabis bioinformatics database. 22nd Century’s bioinformatics database continues to grow and already contains hundreds of hemp/cannabis genomes and thousands expression datapoints across a wide array of hemp/cannabis varieties and phenotypes. The ability to identify specific genetic variations allows researchers to isolate high-value traits, like increased CBD or tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) production, and then introduce those traits in new plant lines using modern plant breeding techniques, including trait tracking using molecular marker profiles and the Company’s proprietary accelerated breeding pipeline. "


Paul Rushton, the inventor behind the Cannabis patents for XXII, recently stated on linkedin that it's a good time to invest in XXII. He was a little sour that he wasn't mentioned for his work. :(

https://preview.redd.it/m54isyq0bsb61.png?width=540&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9b20bb531a27469b5610f45f6a9e5dc260e7c3d

https://preview.redd.it/wtjubwey54c61.png?width=566&format=png&auto=webp&s=a68bbb184fb806142f208e4f1f2ee4aa166c2483
I reached out to Paul to try and get an idea of how the cannabis patent works and how it could provide value for the company. Here was his response -

https://preview.redd.it/x3j9l88dyzc61.png?width=469&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6ba4ecf6b7e38661ac9a89f8bc9a58519e8b81e
XXII also works with hemp, the other side of marijuana. Using their patented processes, they are able to grow 0% THC hemp. Hemp was legalized in the 2018 farm bill and is determined by having less than .3% THC (the psychoactive chemical in marijuana). Hemp/Marijuana with more than that amount of THC is usually illegal to use and must be destroyed. Using XXII's patented process and technology, you can get a much more reliable hemp grow.
"Hemp crops are tested for THC levels; under U.S. federal law, crops containing above 0.3% THC are required to be destroyed. Currently, farmers cannot obtain crop insurance to protect against this risk. 22nd Century has developed a solution to this problem by creating industrial hemp plants that contain zero THC."
The Global Industrial Hemp Market size is expected to grow from USD 3,528.72 Million in 2019 to USD 18,812.81 Million by 2025 at a CAGR of 32.17% during the forecast period.

Onto their tobacco -
The idea behind their low-nicotine tobacco is VLN (Very Low Nicotine) cigarettes. 22nd Century has 18 publishes clinical studies, with another 27 clinical studies currently ongoing, (Heavily funded by the National Institute of Health, the National Institute on Drug Abuse, and the FDA.) that show that using VLN cigarettes lead to decreased nicotine consumption, decreased cigarettes smoked over time and increased quit attempts. Quit rates while using VLN + NRTs (Nicotine replacement therapies) were higher than when using NRTs alone. Withdrawals were less severe using VLN than using other NRTs.
On top of this, studies were done to measure compensatory use in response to using VLN, and they show that compensatory smoking does not occur, even in vulnerable populations. Because cigarettes smoked per day decreases when using VLN, exposure to toxicants outside of just nicotine will also occur.
There is a rigorous process to put tobacco products on the market. First there is the PMTA (Pre market tobacco product application) which allows a company to put it’s products on the market. XXII received this approval in December 2019. They have not brought the product to market just yet because they want to make sure it can be labelled appropriately so consumers know what makes it different.
Then there is the MRTP (Modified risk tobacco product). This essentially allows the company to make specific claims in regards to modified risk/exposure from using their products. XXII is seeking a MODIFIED EXPOSURE claim to put on the packaging. They want to label the packaging to say that VLN has 95% less nicotine than leading brands and helps reduce nicotine consumption.
Mish, the CEO of XXII, has been saying since about September that they have been in close contact with the FDA and feel that it is a matter of WHEN, not if, MRTP approval happens. They were expecting it in Q4-2020, but that did not happen. No new timelines have been announced.
Soon after saying this, Mish proceeded to purchase 100,000 shares of XXII.
Mish continues to say that even a small percent of the market (.25%) would be enough to drive stock price up to $10. According to CDC and the WHO, there are over 1 billion smokers in the world. Over 34 million in the US. 2/3 of Adult smokers want to quit, and 1/2 of adult smokers made an attempt to quit in the past year. Less than 10% of smokers successfully quit.
Not only this, but according to a perception study done by XXII, 9% of participants DEFINITELY would use VLN. 16% are very likely to use. 34% are somewhat likely to use.
https://preview.redd.it/qbbw409y5qb61.png?width=1276&format=png&auto=webp&s=29149dc518a92a7b2d75b095511711c266815c5b
XXII has said previously that they currently have the ability to supply 1% of the smoker population, increased to 2-3% with minimal investments. Last week, XXII put out an update that they are SIGNIFICANTLY increasing their VLN crop growing program in support of anticipated demand.
"This new planting for VLN® tobacco is in addition to the Company’s sizeable inventory of VLN® tobacco, which is earmarked for the launch and initial sales of 22nd Century’s VLN® reduced nicotine content cigarettes. 22nd Century’s Modified Risk Tobacco Product (MRTP) application for VLN® cigarettes is currently in the final stage of review with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Once authorization is granted, 22nd Century will begin marketing its VLN® cigarettes, which contain 95% less nicotine than conventional cigarette brands. Having the only combustible cigarette with a modified exposure claim authorized by the FDA could serve as a catalyst for 22nd Century’s commercial sales as capturing even a small fraction of U.S. tobacco sales could result in exponential growth in the Company’s revenues and market capitalization."
“There are more than 34 million smokers in the United States and research shows that a majority of these smokers are looking for alternatives. When shown samples of VLN®, 60 percent of adult smokers in our studies indicated an interest in using VLN® cigarettes. Additionally, in a 2019 U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) survey, 80 percent of U.S. smokers favored reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes. We believe adult smokers will be very interested in VLN®, and this new crop of VLN® tobacco will help us to fulfill the expected demand based on our latest sales projections.”

They've also said they have been in talks with companies who are very excited to feature the first and only MRTP approved combustible product, and that they will have a rollout and be on shelves within 90 days of MRTP approval. And they said they are not giving out raises or promotions until MRTP approval is received. This was 5-6 months ago, too.
Mish described this MRTP approval as a home run scenario which I think we can all agree he is right. However there is also a GRAND SLAM scenario.
The FDA and various other groups have been working for years to limit the nicotine content in tobacco. In 2017 the FDA created a comprehensive plan for tobacco which included limiting nicotine content in cigarettes to non-addictive levels. Then in 2018 they released an article titled "How Could Lowering Nicotine Levels in Cigarettes Change the Future of Public Health? ".
The same year, the NEJM published this report titled "Potential Public Health Effects of Reducing Nicotine Levels in Cigarettes in the United States" indicating that such a standard could save millions of lives in the US alone. Considering there are only 34 million current smokers in the US, that seems HUGE. Imagine for the rest of the 966 million+ smokers in the world.
Trump's administration took the nicotine standard off the board close to the end of 2019 (oddly, right before the FDA under him approved the PMTA for XXIIs cigarettes).
Soon after, elected officials, attorney generals all were contacting the FDA requesting they reconsider implementing this nicotine policy. -
Kamala Harris & 22 other democrat senators -
https://preview.redd.it/c2it63fz5qb61.png?width=874&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa502bd2c430a297fb24626ece2c570d2cdad680
Xavier Becerra (California AG) and 5 other AGs - stating they support the nicotine standard and want it to apply to all tobacco products.
https://preview.redd.it/a9e0t4816qb61.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7fa2206c8958e6d6e746cec3b02c7be695cf4f1
Representative Pallone

https://preview.redd.it/k2glwd546qb61.png?width=604&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb2fca66dea03eb1d1a0b92424b087d6f19da397
Two days after Pallone's tweet, this article came out about nicotine mandate talks being resumed.
Xavier becerra and Kamala Harris are obviously close to Biden, but so is David Kessler who has vocally supported a nicotine mandate since 2010.
On December 8th, XXII announced the the FDA/NIDA and others have submitted an order for 3.6 million of XXII's variable nicotine cigarettes for study purposes. This provides continued optimism in the FDA's goal to limit nicotine content in cigarettes. There is already mountains of evidence supporting a nicotine mandate.
This mandate would heavily benefit XXII. They are the only company in the world that can produce tobacco with virtually no nicotine. Other companies have attempted to create low nicotine cigarettes by extracting the nicotine from regular tobacco in a variety of methods, but all of these methods influence the feel, flavor, and smell of the tobacco going into the cigarette, and it shows. See Philip Morris's 'Next' cigarette.)
Given this, if a mandate goes into effect, big tobacco has a couple choices. Find some alternative method of extracting nicotine that somehow doesn't fuck up the plant (yet to be found and proven), They could spend decades working on science that xxii has already figured out and patented (obviously the worst choice), or they can work with xxii to produce their tobacco. XXII has already said that they are open to licensing with all tobacco companies.

Biden has announced that his administration will lead with a CDC, NIH, and FDA free from political influence. They will lead based on science.
https://preview.redd.it/j7apzkqoced61.png?width=1449&format=png&auto=webp&s=14ab5b6b83ab21b7bd39f276e5b1de15ae5750fc
And although no permanent FDA commissioner has been named, Janet Woodcock has been named acting head while they vet other candidates for the permanent position. Woodcock, along with ex-FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb and Mitch Zeller, wrote a letter outlining the FDAs comprehensive approach to tobacco.

https://preview.redd.it/0nz1qk5ceed61.png?width=914&format=png&auto=webp&s=d00840ca6dae8d1987443335ec626aafe282c587

Most prominent on the list of candidates for the permanent role is Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, who seems to be a large proponent for the nicotine mandate.

https://preview.redd.it/rvtekc91ded61.png?width=634&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6faa84f3e6f59b74feb72c6ec52457dec5d86c1
To top all of this off, a report came out recently stating that cigarette sales in 2020 did not decline. Compared to 2018-2019 year over year sales, which shows a 5.5% reduction in sales, 2019-2020 year over year sales were flat.

Another report came out showing nicotine promotes breast cancer metastasis (Cancer's ability to move around the body).
"Smoking has a profound impact on tumor immunity, and nicotine, which is the major addictive component of smoke, is known to promote tumor progression despite being a non-carcinogen. In this study, we demonstrate that chronic exposure of nicotine plays a critical role in the formation of pre-metastatic niche within the lungs by recruiting pro-tumor N2-neutrophils. This pre-metastatic niche promotes the release of STAT3-activated lipocalin 2 (LCN2), a secretory glycoprotein from the N2-neutrophils, and induces mesenchymal-epithelial transition of tumor cells thereby facilitating colonization and metastatic outgrowth."

As the vaping epidemic continues, we are discovering possible health issues related to vape use. In addition studies are showing students who had previously tried an e-cigarette are 3x more likely to try a regular cigarette.
"Scientists at the University of Hawaii found e-cigarettes promoted cigarette smoking among young people. The researchers interviewed more than 2,000 high school students in 2013 and again a year later. About a third of those students said they had tried an e-cigarette by the time they were first interviewed. A year later, students who had previously smoked e-cigarettes were about three times more likely to have tried a regular cigarette, compared with those who had not used e-cigarettes."



Recently, James Mish, the CEO of XXII, wrote an opinion article on the nicotine mandate that was, in my opinion, very well written and not at all pumping his company.

You may be thinking 'Oh, but I bet Big tobacco has been working on this behind closed doors...' But in 2018 Big tobacco stated they would not be able to produce this kind of tobacco for 12-20+ years. XXII has it now, and is willing to work with these companies on licensing.
https://preview.redd.it/0u21qk5u9ye61.png?width=712&format=png&auto=webp&s=172a565df4695d7449c495500102a70c026226a2

https://preview.redd.it/y3zzw5xz9ye61.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a71569e697be7e322684a54ea359dd727c3ff01
The public health and economic impacts of tobacco use are immense and seemingly ignored. The WHO says tobacco use alone accounts for a quarter of all cancer deaths globally.
According to the CDC - More than 16 million Americans are living with a disease caused by smoking. Worldwide, tobacco use causes more than 7 million deaths per year. Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the USA, including 41,000 from secondhand smoke. This is about one in five deaths annually, or 1300 deaths every day.
Not only is it a major public health issues (killing more people than covid), but it ends up also being a major drain financially. Smoking costs the US more than $300 billion each year. 170 billion in medical care and 156 billion in lost productivity and premature death.


Aside from the mandate and VLN cigarettes, there is also substantial room for growth into different industries for tobacco -
https://preview.redd.it/szmj7kp27qb61.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3bf9e757e38eabe752944de6e4f8184dd33ef82
For example, XXII was just recently granted another patent for "Increasing the levels of nicotinic alkaloids in plants".
"Due to the paucity of research, there is a need for identifying genes that increase nicotine biosynthesis and accumulation. For example, because nicotinic alkaloids play an important role in protecting plants against insects and herbivores, it is likely to be advantageous to increase nicotinic alkaloid synthesis in a host plant. From an herbivory perspective, increased nicotine synthesis and accumulation would provide an environmentally acceptable means for mediating plant-pest interactions. "
Possibly getting into natural pesticides? Nicotine/tobacco has been used this way for some time (not in a large scale), but they could possibly optimize this.
"Cedric Briens and colleagues note that concerns about the health risks of tobacco have reduced demand and hurt tobacco farmers in some parts of the world. Scientists are looking for new uses for tobacco. One potential use is as a natural pesticide, due to tobacco’s content of toxic nicotine. For centuries, gardeners have used home-made mixtures of tobacco and water as a natural pesticide to kill insect pests. A “green” pesticide industry based on tobacco could provide additional income for farmers, and as well as a new eco-friendly pest-control agent, the scientists say." Link

"In addition to the more traditional applications for increased nicotine products, such as cigarettes and other tobacco products, recent pharmacological studies suggest a therapeutic role for nicotine and related compounds. For example, several research groups are presently studying drugs that target nicotine receptors as a means for treating cognitive impairments, such as Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, and age-related memory loss. Singer, “The Upside to Nicotine,” Technology Review (Jul. 28, 2006). Acetylcholine receptor ligands, such as nicotine, have been demonstrated to have effects on attention, cognition, appetite, substance abuse, memory, extra pyramidal function, cardiovascular function, pain, and gastrointestinal motility and function. U.S. Pat. No. 5,852,041. Thus, there are therapeutic benefits of nicotine and related compounds, and thus there is a need for improved methods for producing them."
Pharmaceuticals?

Another notable area here is the vaccine industry. Who knew Tobacco plants were involved in about 1/3 of all plant-based vaccines?

https://preview.redd.it/qmics1dw2if61.png?width=506&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7e8ab02485bf24cd77bef720f507407e56362d4
"Plant-based vaccine production offers better alternative over egg-based and cell-based vaccine production systems, by reducing lead time and increasing reliability and versatility. Furthermore, plant-based vaccine offers greater antigen specificity in disease treatment. Plant-based vaccine production enables manufacturers to create vaccine, which precisely matches the specific strain of influenza virus in patient’s circulation, as in case of flu infection, influenza virus mutates is constantly. For instance, according to Phase III clinical data study published by Medicago, in September 2017, Medicago's VLP vaccine during the phase II clinical trial stage showed higher antibody and cell-mediated immunity (CMI) responses over comparator conventional vaccine.
However, several challenges in manufacturing of plant-based vaccines is expected to restrain growth of the market. Plant-based vaccine production is a new technology and involves complex manufacturing and regulatory process.
In plant-based vaccine production method, manufacturers use only specific gene, which codes for protein called hemagglutinin, which is responsible for triggering immune system and encodes it into the tobacco plant leaves. In this context, companies need to pursue the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval to state that not only plant-based vaccine is safe and effective, but also the hemagglutinin or other proteins, which can be extracted from the plant leaves are according to the mentioned standard and that the manufacturing process yields a uniform and reliable product."
It's possible XXII could become a tobacco provider for this as the science is further developed. This is major speculation though as it looks like Medicago has a good foothold in this market.


On the cannabis side, xxii is creating proprietary plant lines with essentially customizable amounts of specific cannabinoids and terpenes. With Democratic control, we are expecting to see decriminalization for sure. But now that Dems also have the senate we can expect to see cannabis removed as a schedule 1 drug, opening it up to funding for research purposes. Any of this research is poised to benefit XXII heavily as they have control to customize plant lines for various purposes.
Recently, legislation has been proposed to "ensure that research on CBD and other potentially beneficial marijuana-derived substances is based on sound science while simultaneously reducing the regulatory barriers associated with conducting research on marijuana. "

XXII also is waiting to announce a third plant franchise until they have established the IP, but it should be soon. CEO has announced that the plant is similar in genome to the cannabis plant, and that the plant will make their franchises into a 'trifecta'. Because of this I think the third plant franchise is going to be hops. It's similar in genome... Tobacco...Cannabis...Beer... What a trifecta. I believe they could control terpene levels in hops which could be very influential in the craft beer industry.
Update - 1/28/2021 -XXII just announced that they are moving offices! This is a huge upgrade for them from their previous office. It's in an up and coming area, and it provides them opportunity to further grow their business. They wouldn't be doing this if they weren't preparing for the launch of VLN.
Here is an image of the building they are moving to. Pretty large upgrade for them. -
https://preview.redd.it/npjsw96hfye61.png?width=1919&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2f932d7d1e612beb06c3c04f9928292482fd98b
"We have experienced tremendous positive change in our organization over the past year and this relocation will help us improve on efficiency, collaboration, and our ability to attract and retain top talent," said James A. Mish, chief executive officer of 22nd Century Group. "We have deep roots in Buffalo, and we are very excited to be moving to the up-and-coming Larkinville District, Buffalo's oldest manufacturing district, to join other organizations that are revitalizing the city's tech and business community."


To sum up the expected catalysts -
  1. MRTP approval - "WHEN NOT IF"..."MATTER OF MONTHS" from CEO back in Sep-Nov 2020
  2. Subsequent launch of product on shelves within 90 days.
  3. FDA announcement on nicotine mandate.
  4. Cannabis/hemp monetization announcements
  5. 3rd Plant Franchise.
I think the writing is on the wall here. I'm not going to go into any more details here, but if you have any questions feel free to throw them out.

For shits and giggles - I did post about this company 4 months ago on 10/11/2020 when the share price was ~.80.
https://www.reddit.com/pennystocks/comments/j970vxxii_plant_biotech_company_working_with/
Thanks!
submitted by Sniper-J to pennystocks [link] [comments]

I read Capcom's integrated report for 2020, and i... do not understand them. Can someone explain the corporate logic to me?

Originally i posted this on Resident Evil sub, because all discussed issues are directly related to RE franchize, but it was deleted because of mentionining the leaks, and even pointing out that leaks were never a subject of this discussion mods there decided to turn ignore mode on. Hope it will get a better reception here, because i really want to hear what other people think about this all.
This is the report i am talking about: https://www.capcom.co.jp/ienglish/data/pdf/annual/2020/annual_2020_01.pdf
I don't understand how those corporations work. Maybe anyone can explain it to me? Here is the parts that caught my attention:
In the paragraph called "The COO’s Discussion of Growth Strategies" they have a diagram that tells us that they pay attention to user's feedback, user analysys and game reception.
In reality, we see a completly different situation. When the entire community cries in Outbreak (not even a remake, just a group coop story game mode), they commit to remaking single-player games, and creating a CallofDuty-ish pvp mode for Village - literally the opposite of what community is asking them about. Have Umbrella Corps taught them nothing? They also doing the same thing with in-game updates - for example, when entire community in Resistance were screaming and leaving game because they thought that playing against gun-based Masterminds in a RE-themed game is boring, they... added a fully gun-focused Mastermind in next update, while nerfing all the creature builds to the ground, that caused really massive decline in player base. Or when people desperatly asked for story DLC in RE3 because of it's low length (and the fact that even Re2 had additional content), they decided to just move on to the next game instead.
"We ignore what you ask for, and we give you what you never asked for" seems to be Capcom's motto today. So who are those "players" from the diagram? QA testers from the company? Who's feedback they are listening to?
They mention "long-term product lives for major titles" when they talk about "Continionus updates", but RE3 isn't even in the list. Probably, because it had no real updates. So... it's not considered as a major title?
They say "Our level of overseas sales is improving through comprehensive use of the PC platform, which enables sales to the entire word", yet pc is most disregarded platform - for example, it excluded from Reverse beta, put no anti-cheat on Resistance, and they aslo made a really terrible Steam regional pricings that making no sense (here are details: https://www.reddit.com/residentevil/comments/ecacg7/regional_pricing_for_re3_is_just_something/) And you know what's funny? They doing exactly same thing with Village: https://steamdb.info/app/1196590/ It costs 65$ in Ukraine and 35$ in Russia despite having SAME regional locked copy, and much lower average level of income in Ukraine. I can safely bet that everyone here will either ignore it ot buy from russian code re-sellers.
Is that how you treat a platform that allows you to expand your sales overseas?
In the "relationship with customers" paragraph they speak about dangers of gatcha and lootboxes, saying how they do not support either of those. They say "in our home video games, we provide any content required to enjoy the full game free of charge, while offering some additional content at low cost."
It's funny, because in Resistance you are getting not only skins, but also all equipment (that is crucial for winning games) ONLY from lootboxes. Yes, those can't be bought with real money. But exp boosters, that would allow you to grind those lootboxes much faster than regular players are only sold for real money. So technically they do not sell lootboxes, but they have them, and players paying with either time or money to get them, and then praying on rng factor to get items they want to have. Double standards, eh?
Speaking about Resistance... it's funny how it's not even mentioned a single time, and i supose there is a good reasons for that. Someone at Capcom did everything in their power to make this game fail:
Even despite all those issues game was popular and still has active playerbase - more on consoles than on pc, because of issues stated above. Yet the support for this game were discontinued only 6 months after the release in favour of making the COD'is primitive shooter called REverse. First they made a really unique, unlike any others game that required strategy, planning, had high replayability because of build and tactics vairance, and could bring them a fortune if it was properly handled and updated with iconic content. Then, they do everything in their power for game to lose it's playerbase - it feels like they never planned for it to sucseed in the first place. And then they just dropping it to make the primitive rung and gun game... I wonder, will they also release it without anti-cheat, servers, etc, and then just end support?
Can someone explain me what is wrong with those people? They can write that elaborate report that would probably take a day to fully read it, put tons of various statistics and researches in it, but unable to realize such simple things as "sell games to the target audience", "promoute your games", "online games are made to give profit in long run, and not "drop and make another one" style", "if you manage prices in poor countries properly it will give you more profit", "online games need an anti-cheat"?
How can an entier huge company with 2300 employees be in such bubble to not realize any of those issues and write the report that pretends none of them exist? It can't be that i can see all that, and 2300 professionals who actually working in the company cannot. From the pictures there i see that all directors and very old people. Also i heared that older generation in Japan are very stubborn in their ways of doing things. Can it be that possibly be that everyone in company is aware about all this, and all the lost profits caused by such actions, but a person who makes all the important calls decided to be ignorant because he "knows better"? I cannot think of any other possible explanation behind Capcom's repeated mistakes of same kind, especially in attempts to develop a multiplayer title. It feels like person responcible for managing such projects never even played multiplayer games in first place, they simply have no idea what they are doing.
submitted by ElvenNeko to pcgaming [link] [comments]

OBLIGATORY FILLER MATERIAL – Giving thanks edition: Kickin’ around Caracas, Pt. 5

Continuing… (It's Part 6 in the saga, I fucked up. Sorry.)
So, after a few re-fueling and impromptu cigar-purchasing stops in South and Central America, we wheel up to the deserted jetway at LAX.
“Thought we were going to Elmendorf?” I asked.
“This isn’t it?” the pilot replied, feigning worry.
“No.”, I replied, “Looks like California. Fruits and nuts. All around. What’s going on? One minute we’re off to Texas, then Cali, then Texas again, now we end up here at the California airport of the iconic tower.”
“Yeah, it’s confusing enough haulin’ civilians around. But when we get a call from Virginia, we tend to comply without any questions,” the pilot explains.
“Aw, shit!”, I sort of exclaim, “Rack and Ruin called?”
“Yeah”, the pilot replies, “Figures you’d know these guys. They said they were closer to LAX rather than Texas and had us divert here. In fact, you look over there, see that dark blue Chevy? That’s them; and evidently, your ride.”
I tipped the airman from earlier a couple of cigars as he helped me with my gear off the plane and into the trunk of Rack and Ruin’s plain-Jane blue late modeled Chevy. Had to move the Sidewinder Missiles off to one side, though.
“Most honorable Agents Lack and Luin!” I quipped in my faux-racist greeting. “What the hell, guys? I’ve got to get to Japan and get some newly rigidified digits.”
“Let’s see your hand”, Agent Rack asks. “Nasty.”
“Yeah”, I sigh “And with the medicos in South America and their penchant for plaster, I don’t so much have a left hand as more of an ankylosaur tail.”
“Or Thagomizer”, Agent Ruin tittered. “Anyone gives you grief, and one upside the head should set them right. Or dead.”
“You’re a riot, Ruin.” I replied, “But not entirely incorrect.”
We all agreed that I really didn’t need any extra accouterments to make myself look more dangerous. I mean with my severe haircut, stern beard clip, and perpetual ‘Go fuck yourself’ scowl.
“Yeah”, I replied, stroking the aforementioned beard, “I just can’t get that. I’m such a people person.”
After Agents Rack and Ruin finished drying their eyes from laughing what I thought was en extremis, we finally got down to business.
“So, what’s the skinny, guys”, I asked. “New marching orders?”
“No. Not as such”, Agent Ruin said, still sniggering over my ‘people person’ comment.
I see we’re moving. Agent Rack is just driving casually, like Chewbacca when they were waiting to see if the Empire went for that expensive Bothan code.
“Then, what?” I asked, getting a slight bit piqued.
“Well”, Agent Ruin noted, “When you went to South America, you took some of your artillery collection with, correct?”
“You know I did. You even made some snide comments about my personal choice of sidearms and their ‘excessive’ calibers, if memory serves”, I reiterated.
“And if you are proceeding normally, as you always do, they’re all nestled in the trunk of this very car. All cleaned, quiet, unloaded, and smelling sweetly of Hoppe’s Number 9 and WD 40, correct?” Rack inquired.
“Yes?” I cautiously venture.
“Well, ya’ big dummy, do you think they’re going to let you saunter into Tokyo armed like the Third Fleet?” Agent Ruin chuckled.
“Um…well…I do have a Diplomatic Passport.” I ventured.
“That’s not going to work this time.”, Agent Ruin said, shaking his head. “They’re tighter than Dick’s Hatband about sidearms. Want to bring in your Rigby SXS .500 Nitro Express double rifle? Not a problem. Sidearms, especially in your alien hunting calibers, nope.”
Well, that’s just….*dandy!”, I reply, semi-put out. “Now what the hell am I going to do?”
“Ever think that’s why Ruin and I are here, now?”, Rack asks.
“And here I thought it was just so you could bask in the warm glow of my fucking wonderful personality. Or that you actually cared about me as a real goddamn human”, I joshed.
“Ummm…yeah”, Rack replies, “There’s no way we can answer that without going on some Deadpool list. “
I agreed.
“OK, here’s the deal: you get your sidearms, ammunition, speed loaders, brass knuckles, Asp, laser range finders, Sap, Zeiss scopes, Kukri, Wisconsin Cheese Whittler, Buck folding skinner, Marine K-Bar, those two ultra-illegal Cheburkov Cobra titanium switchblades...”
“Three. Olga the KGB lady sent me one for Geologist’s Day.”
“Ahem. Those three ultra-illegal Cheburkov switchblades, that Wyoming Speedholer, your MASER Time-Distance Computer, garrote, pocket rail gun and whatever else lethal you carry and deposit it in the iron box in the trunk. We’ll ensure that it’s delivered to Esme post-haste. And by post-haste I mean one of our guys will deliver it personally.”
“Well…I suppose”, I conceded, “But best send someone who’s been to the house recently. I don’t know how much bigger Khan has grown since I left on this little fantasy trip. Wouldn’t want a star on the wall in Langley for someone eaten by a mastiff. Want to see a picture….Oh, bother. That’s right. My phone’s at the bottom of fucking Lake Maracaibo.”
“Good point”, Ruin interjects, “Guess we’ll do a little road trip and deliver it ourselves. Best call Esme and let her know what’s going on.”
“I have no objections to your proposals. Please give Esme this when you see her. I had some luck in the Calaveras Casino and if I don’t send her some mad money. Ouch. She’ll never forgive me for not taking her along to Japan.” I asked.
“But I thought Esme hated Japan? Too crowded and too ‘fussy’, I believe was her estimation.” Ruin asked.
“Yes, but once she saw the Ginza, all bets were off. Shopping the likes of which even Allah himself hasn’t seen.” I replied, slowly shaking my head.
“I see”, Ruin said, “Well, since you’re off to Sapporo, perhaps you can do a recon for Esme on the shopping there.”
“Not bad. Not bad at all.”, I smiled, “Now I know why I let you guys hang around with me.”
So, as advertised, I am now standing on the tarmac at LAX, basically feeling naked.
“Can’t I keep just one switchblade?” I moaned to Agent Rack.
“Go ahead, if you’re really keen on donating it to Japanese customs”, he replied.
“Fuckbuckets.” I groused.
“There, there now. That’s the usual Dr. Rocknocker of which we’re all so fond.” Agent Ruin chuckled.
“Remember, you do have that wallet-sized credit card gizmo from the Company. So you’re not entirely ‘naked’. Think of it as an emergency breechcloth.” He smiled.
“I’d like a larger model if you don’t mind. It’s chilly out here.” I joshed.
After Agents Rack and Ruin stripped me metaphorically naked as they de-weaponized me, they handed me a Business Class ticket to Tokyo, and a pass to the Japan Airlines Hospitality Suite and Lounge.
“So sorry you guys can’t hang around and have a few farewell snorts”, I chided, “But you’ve got a bit of a drive, so best be off before the weather turns to shit.”
“Who says we’re driving?” Agent Rack asked as he hooked a thumb over his shoulder at the ready and waiting C-130 cargo plane currently taxiing slowly in our direction.
“Well, in that case”, I smiled even more broadly, “Let’s invite the flight crew to join us. That’ll make the flight home all that much more interesting.”
After near tear-jerking farewell sentimentalities, i.e., “Piss on you”, “Get stuffed” and “Take a fuckin’ hike”; Agents Rack and Ruin, my weapons and the Agency’s plain-Jane Blue Chevy were all nestled snugger than buggers in ruggers in the belly of the thundering C-130.
Now truly on my own, I trudge the hundred thousand or so centisteps to my departure terminal, make a quick recon that my flight’s still slated to go in a generally westward direction, and hightail it to the nearest courtesy desk to ask for a motorized cart to take me and my remaining luggage to the JAL Hospitality Suite.
Hey. I’m old, infirm, and currently among the walking wounded.
Anyone that disagrees risks an Ankylosaur tail club swat or Thagomizer to the skull.
Finally ensconced in the JAL Hospitality Suite, Polo Lounge of course; I was drinking Tokyo Teas (3 oz. vodka, 2 oz. gin, 2 oz. rum, 1 oz. triple sec, 1 oz. Midori, good splash of lime juice, a slight splash of 7-Up (diet, of course), over ice with a lime wheel) with Pabst Blue Ribbon Extra 1844 chasers and Hangar One’s “Fog Point” vodka on the side, hiding from the brutish realities of this foul year of two thousand and twenty-something, Common Era…
I’ve already called Esme and we’ve had a good, long chat. She still managed to give me her shopping list for whenever I find myself bored on the Ginza.
She’ll be shocked when she learns that I’m not going to be in Tokyo long, but have 1st class tickets on the Bullet Train to Sapporo. Still, I’ll probably find myself in Pole Town or the Stellar Place there, trading piles of US greenbacks for locally produced Japanese curios and clothing.
I can hardly wait.
I order another round of drinks, as the wonderful attendants in the Hospitality Suite were bored out of their skulls because of the COVID-induced drop-in customers flying anywhere that requires a hospitality room stay, and I was virtually the only one around. They tried their level best to outdo each other when it comes to Japanese efficiency and friendliness.
After a couple of hours, they ask if I would like something from the grill, as the day chef had “the COVID” and the night chef just arrived. A quick perusal of the menu and I chose a 28-ounce dry-aged Porterhouse and another round of drinks.
I usually don’t like to eat too much before I fly, but JAL tells me the flight is going to be virtually empty, something like <121 pax, all told, so restroom availability shouldn’t be too much of a concern.
Plus, who am I to say no to a free, blue 28-ounce dry-aged Porterhouse?
There was a bit of difficulty conveying to the chef through the intermediaries of the hospitality just how I wanted my steak.
“Blue,” I said.
“Brue?” was the reply.
“Rare. Very, very rare.” I continued.
Look of total bewilderment.
I drag out my Personal Language Pro, speak “Steak, very, very rate” into the infernal gizmo, and hand the contraption to the attendant.
“珍しい、非常に珍しいステーキ?”[ Mezurashī, hijō ni mezurashī sutēki?]
“Raw! Nama!” I say, louder than need be.
They toddle off to find the chef.
“How is it sir, that you would like your steak cooked?” he asks.
“Very rare. Just a minute or two per side. Inside still cold.” I instructed.
All I got for the trouble was a puzzled smile.
“Give me the language gizmo…” I type in a few words…
“お尻を洗い、角をノックオフして、ここから出してください”
[O shiri o arai,-kaku o nokkuofu shite, koko kara dashite kudasai.]
“Wash its ass, knock its horns off, and walk it out here.”
“OH!” as the lightbulb pops. “Rare. Got it! Excellent!” the chef laughs and zips back to the kitchen.
Like I always say, I’m nothing if not the international ambassador of amity and goodwill.
“Crack tubes!”
Dinner was fantastic. I do wish I could have somehow mailed the Porterhouse bone back home for Khan. After that hambone incident, he might even taste it.
Finally on the plane, in an almost empty Business Class, the flight captain informs us that we’re headed to Haneda Airport Tokyo and anyone not headed in that direction better ‘haul ass off’ the flight or forever hold their peace.
Late-night international flights tend to be a bit more wooly than your average Chicago to Omaha gig.
Especially when the flight’s damn near empty and we have the next 12 hours or so to be best friends.
We taxi, turn and head into the wind. I’m doctoring up a couple of dossiers and keeping my personal cabin attendant, Luna since there were two of us in Business and two business flight attendants, busy with her trying to play ‘Stump the Geologist’.
“I’ll bet you never had this before.” She beamed and handed me a tumbler of very dangerous-looking brown liquor.
I cautiously sniff, take a modest gulp, swirl and glug the rest down.
“Ohishi Single Sherry Cask”, I say with a muffled belch. “Light. Fruity. An Englishman’s drink.”
“Oh. You knew. Let me try again.” She smiles beatifically.
“I have no objections to your proposal.” I smile as nicely as this crotchety old Komodo Dragon could.
She returns with another flagon of spirits; it smells of obsidian, leather, and earth.
I just had some of this back in LAX. I take a snort, smile, and shotgun the rest.
“Hibiki Japanese Harmony…lovely stuff.” I smile. “A little light for my jaded palate, but I’d never turn it down if it were free.”
“Oh, you win again. Wait. One more.” She smiles and skitters off to the galley.
She returns with another soupçon of some more dangerous brown liquor.
“Here, try this. It will make you very popular at social gatherings”. She smiles.
Sniff. “Splendid.” Snort. Swirl. Smile. Shotgun.
“Kanosuke New Born, if I’m not mistaken.” I smile back. “Very nice. I really do like this one.”
“You too good at this. One more!” she stands and stomps off defiantly. She returns in a trice and hands me the glass.
“Hmm…brown. Light notes of earth, leather, dating your daughter, and Kentucky…
“Beam Suntory, right?”
“You know them all!” she says, feigning irritation.
“And I thank you. Those were all excellent. Now, anything in the dangerous clear liquor category? I asked.
Luna smiled as I palmed off a 20k yen tip.
“Oh, no sir. Wait until we land.” She demurred, referring to the gratuity; which is know is not de rigueur in the Orient, but she didn’t seem to mind.
“Just in case we never make it to Tokyo”, I laughed, unknowingly presciently.
We both chuckled about that last line as she tried out various sakes and shōchūs and an actual Japanese ‘White Liquor’ (ホワイトリカー), which were all excellent as was the company.
I tell her that I need to get some work done and could she bring me a tall Rocknocker. After explain the origins and construction of the eponymous drink, she brings me one that must tip the scales at 1 or so liters.
She settles down to an empty seat and I get after the work that I need to finish before we land. I’m about ½ way through my drink when it felt as if the plane hit a brick wall. She quivered and quaked and clutched at herself while I made some comments about the pilot’s mental health.
We dropped like a paralyzed falcon, then just as suddenly, felt like it was an express elevator to Angel’s 11. The plane bucked and shimmied, wickedly. Then we slam-danced right and fell a few more stories. It was like we were in a Mixmaster and the owner was trying out every speed.
The emergency lights in the 777-300ER popped on, and the fasten seat belt sign barked loudly so even sleeping travelers could enjoy the show.
Rinse. Spin. Shudder. Repeat.
Finally, the ride smooths out and we hear the captain on the blower.
“This is your captain speaking…ah, we seem to have hit some uncharted turbulence back there.”
“Thanks, Captain Obvious”, I muttered.
“Everything’s A-OK. “ he reports.
“That’s good”, I note.
“But…”
“There’s always the but…” I groan.
“…we have a couple of warning lights for which we can’t quite account. So to just be safe and certain, we’re going to divert to Hawaii, get a clean bill of health and resume this flight once we make sure everything here is hunky-dory.”
There were scattered groans and applause. Add them together and divide by two and the average response on the flight was “Meh. Whatever.”
Except for the other guy in Business, with whom I hadn’t shared two words. He began to absolutely lose his shit.
“Oh, man! We’re so screwed! Mechanical malfunction? What does that mean?” he positively fizzed with fear.
The flight attendants tried to calm him down, to no avail. They basically gave up and said they’d report his misgivings to the Captain.
I motioned over to my personal flight attendant, Luna, and asked if I could be of service.
“Oh, Doctor Rock”, she smiled at me, “If you could speak with him. You are so calm, and he is…”
“Losing his bloody mind”, I chuckled as I finished her sentence for her. “Of course, I’ll take a stab at it.”
So, I grab my drink and ease over to my Business Class partner and introduce myself.
“Hey, pal. How’s it going? I’m Dr. Rock, gentleman, scholar, and connoisseur of cigars and things alcoholic. You doing OK?”
He looks at me with an ashen face and his eyes the size of bloodshot dinner plates.
“Yeah. I’m Todd Schotts. I’m flying to Japan for business.” He mumbles
“No surprise there,” I reply calmly and take a slug of my drink.
“But now we’re all going to die. The plane is busted and we’ll crash…” he started off again.
“So, Todd is it? Good. You drink?” I asked.
“Yeah?”, he stammered back.
I asked Luna to make us a fresh batch of my eponymous cocktails.
“OK, Todd, listen up”, I began after the drinks were served, “I have flown literally millions of miles over the last 4 decades. On Aeroflot when it was still the USSR. On TACA (Take A Chance Airways), on Chalk’s in the Caribbean, on Bob’s Verrifast Plane Company in Rhodesia, on regional carriers that don’t even exist anymore. All over the world. Had some bad experiences flying, and me ol’ mugger, this ain’t one of them. This is nothing more than the glitch for this mission.”
I chuckled lightly and complimented Luna on a fantastic drink.
“Yeah…yeah…yeah…but we have to land and check out some lights…” Todd squealed.
“Well now, Todd. It would be rather difficult to do any external assessment while in flight, don’t you agree?” I asked.
“But we’re diverting. We have to land and that adds more risk. We’re going to crash and die!” he was coming more and more unglued.
“I will bet you every cent you have on your person and home bank accounts that that will not happen”, I chuckled.
That took him by surprise. At least it shut him up for a while.
“Look, Todd. This is Boeing’s latest model. They have the most incredible safety record. And if a little clear air turbulence were to be knocking planes out of the sky, don’t you think we’d hear about it as the press went berserk?” I asked.
“But they don’t know what the lights mean! What if one of the engines’s out? How far can we fly on one engine?” Todd stuttered.
Having my fill of a supposedly grown man with inane childlike fears, I calmly replied,
“All the way to the crash site.”
He went white.
“...hope we hit something hard. I don’t want to limp away from this.”
He went limp.
Then I went to my seat and motioned for Luna to prepare a reload.
Of course, 45 minutes later, we land without incident at Daniel K. Inouye International Airport, Honolulu Hawaii.
We were told to just wait around until they figure out what the problem if any, was.
They had officials waiting at the end of the jetway to check our COVID status and passports before they let us loose in the terminal.
I asked Luna if she knew this airport. She noted that she did.
“Is there a JAL hospitality room here at this airport? I asked.
“Yes, Doctor. It’s the Sakura Lounge. It is located on the third level above The Local, Terminal 2.” She replied.
“Please notify whoever needs to know that that’s where I’ll be for the duration”, I smiled and handed her my business card. “See you soon, I hope.”
“Oh, Dr. Rock”, she replied, “I am sure it is nothing much. We’ll be back in the air within mere hours.”
“Well then”, I smiled, “Guess I’d better get ready to hoof it to the lounge.”
“Oh, Doctor Rock”, she smiled, “No rush. I will call for you a courtesy cart. You are injured, you are Business, you are priority.”
“I love that Asian efficiency.” I smiled back and toddled down the jetway.
At the terminus of the jetway, I show my COVID-clear papers, dates and times of my Anti-Virus vaccine administrations, the letter from Virginia clearing me of all detention, and my red Russian diplomatic passport.
While in the cart, whizzing our way to the JAL lounge, the driver said “Man! You must be some kind of VIP. You were through that welcoming committee in less than two minutes!”
“Me? Nah!”, I chuckled, “Just an old phart of a geologist that they didn’t want to mess with. Not on such a bright, sunny day as this.”
“I see you’re not wearing a mask.” The driver quipped.
“Very observant. There are reasons for that.” I replied.
He careens around a corner and if this were a normal pre-Covid day, I’m certain we’d have killed hundreds. However, the airport, as I’ve come to grow accustomed to, was virtually deserted.
“Yeah? Like what?” he asks.
“Well, Scooter, 1. I have an active and hardworking immune system that I let off the chain every once in a while for exercise. Got to let it know what it’s up against, right? 2. I’ve had all my shots and some that were experimental. They seem to have worked. And 3. I find it difficult to drink and smoke cigars while wearing a mask. However, if you’d prefer, I will mask up. No problem, though it still is optional.”
“Nah, man”, he said, “I was just wondering if you were one of those religious idiots or conspiracy nuts.”
Nope”, I smiled back, “Just another geologist out in the world plying his trade for cash. Y’know, whorin’ around for money.”
He laughs aloud as we skid to a stop right in front of Lounge.
I slip the guy a $20 and ask if he’d listen for the JAL flight I was just on. If we’re going on ahead today, I’d need him to scoot by and putt-putt me back to the plane.
He laughs and pockets the $20 as quick as a mink ruts.
“No worries. I’ll just hang around this area. I hear anything about the flight, I’ll come and let you know.” He grins.
“Good man”, I say, as I hand him my card. “I’m Dr. Rocknocker. Call me Rock”.
“And I’m Kapula Mano, call me Kap” he replies.
“Good man”, I say again, “Hope to see you in a while.”
He grins, floors his electric cart, and peels out at speeds approaching 4.5 MPH.
I wander into the lounge, show my credentials, and am escorted to a post up on Mahogany Ridge.
The bar is very quiet. Besides the bartender, I can’t see anyone else in the darkened and Smooth Jazz-infused drinking emporium.
I order a local drink, a Mai Tai, just for the experience and something a bit different.
It’s served in a goldfish bowl on a stem, bedecked with a slice of lime, a sprig of mint, a stick of sugar cane, a polychromatic orchid, and the obligate paper umbrella.
“Ah. Mai Tai. I will enjoy it.” I said to no one in particular.
One was enough, and I decided to go back to the old standard. Once I explained to the bartender what that was, he made them heroic and enthusiastically.
I’m reading up on a random dossier, making notes in a new file, and puffing away on a Fuentes Onyx double Maduro Churchill cigar.
I hear a slight cough coming from my right, and this here lovely lady, she sat to my immediate starboard and looked at me semi-quizzically.
Not in the mood for shenanigans of any stripe, I give her the obligate Baja Canada nod and tilt of the drink. I return to my dossiers and continue to read and take notes.
“Excuse me!” I hear.
Fearing the worst, either the woman is Karen-oid anti-smoking or a religious fruit-and-nutburger, I slowly turn to face her and reply, somewhat glacially, I have to admit.
“What?”
“That cigar…”
“Here we go…” I mutter, eyes rolling northward.
“Smells exquisite. Could you tell me the brand? My husband would enjoy some like that.” She notes.
Instantly my demeanor switches 1800.
“Yes, ma’am. It’s an Arturo Fuentes Onyx. Churchill size, or 60 ring x 7” length, double Maduro. Here, take one for your husband. I have an ample supply.” I smile.
“Oh, no. I couldn’t. Could I?” she asks.
“Please. I insist.” I smile the best I could given the circumstances.
“Thank you. You’re too kind…umm…Mr….?”
“Doctor. Doctor Rocknocker. World traveler, oilman, and international ambassador of amity, good drinks, and fine cigars. Call me Rock” I said.
“Oh! A Doctor?” she brightens.
“Yes, of Petroleum Geology and Engineering. Not medicine.” I chuckle.
She chuckles back.
“And I am Hella Aaberg”, as she offers her hand for a quick shake.
“Interesting name, Hella. Scandinavian or Old German heritage?” I ask.
“On my father’s side. He’s Finnish.” She replies.
“But I’ll wager your mother is not Scandinavian, correct?” I ask.
“She was from Truk, an island…”
“In the South Pacific, Micronesia. Was she from Weno city?” I asked.
“Why yes. How could you possibly know that?” she asked.
“Oh, I’ve been there. Great diving amongst the WWII wrecks. I think it’s actually called ‘Chuuk Lagoon’ or something like that now.” I said.
“That’s right! Amazing. Where else have you been?” she asked.
“Anywhere there’s oil, strife, booze, cigars, heavy explosives and typically long distances from whatever most normal people call civilization,” I replied with a chuckle.
Suddenly, I hear a voice booming out behind me.
“Why don’t you save that rapier-like wit for those musky-fuckers back home, Rocko?”
My expression changes. My eyes pop fully wide open.
“Hella?” I asked.
“Yes?”
“May I ask you a favor?”
“You can ask…”
“Thank you. Now, looking over my shoulder, is there a hulking goon of a person, thin up top, paunchy halfway down with the most ridiculously tiny sized shoes you’ve ever seen for a so-called grown man?” I ask.
“Yes. Yes, there is.” She replies.
“I thought so. Many thanks.”
I spin and launch off my barstool and grab Toivo by the hand. He hadn’t seen my left-hand Thagomizer yet.
“Toivo! You old sumbitch. What the flying fennec fox fuck are you, of all people, doing in Hawaii?” I laughed.
“Just keeping an eye on you, Rock!” he laughed equally as loud.
“No, fucking-A, seriously. What the actual fuck? What are you doing in this actual nice place?” I asked.
“Just headed to Tokyo to conduct a bit of service company business. I walked into the lounge and smelled a foul cigar. I figured it can’t be the venerable Dr. Rocknocker. He’s back at some school up north terrorizing geology and engineering grads and undergrads.” Toivo laughed.
“But there I was. Surprise!”, I laughed and pumped his hand.
“What the fuck, Rock. Now what did you do?” he asks, referring to my Ankylosaur tail club left hand.
“Ah, fuck. Long story. Oh, pardon me. Toivo, this is Hella. We were just talking about the South Seas Islands.” I said.
“Planning on running off together?” Toivo laughs, to the amusement of neither party.
“Oh, and this idiot is Toivo, a man with a congenital foot-in-mouth disorder. He’s mostly harmless.” I noted to Hella.
Greetings were shared all around. Hella made some small excuses and said she needed to depart. I gave her another cigar for her husband, shook her hand, and wished her well.
“Here’s my business card. If your husband has any questions, have him drop me a line.” I noted.
Hella smiled beautifully. She said she would. Then she thanked me shook our hands, and like that, there she was, gone.
“Well Toivo, you old bastard. Don't just stand there in the doorway like some lonesome goddamn mouse shit sheepherder, get your ass over here and have a drink.” I motioned over to my perch on Mahogany Ridge.
“Don’t mind if I do”, he says as he deftly winds his way to a seat to my left, snagging a cigar out of my pocket on the way over.
“You might want these”, I say in an exasperated tone, and hand him my gold Dunhill Hobnail lighter and V-cutter gizmo.
He cuts and fires up his heater.
“What you drinkin’, Rock”, he asks.
“Anything with alcohol, as usual. You know that Toiv.” I reply.
“No. I mean right now.” He clarifies.
“Well, I had a Mai Tai. Very nice if you like fruity, flowery drinks. It’s the locals’ favorite.” I reply.
“Sounds good. I’ll have several. And you?” Toivo asks.
“My usual. The bartender is already apprised of the situation.” I reply.
Toivo smiles the smile of one knowing his sobriety is going to be taken out for a swim. Hell, taken out and tossed into the deep end.
Toivo and I sit there, swapping lies, smoking cigars and sipping at our toddies.
Hell, Toivo was slurping them like a sump-pump during an extra-wet summer.
We chattered about family, work, whether or not Tokyo was going to host the Olympics or if the COVID-boogie man scared everyone off.
Toivo, always one afflicted with TB (“Tiny Bladder”) got up to go to the loo for the third time that hour. He left his pocket organizer on the bar and I swear on a stack of Origins of Species, I didn’t touch it.
I reached over to his vacated seat to retrieve my cigar lighter when I looked down and saw in his organizer a tab that reads “Rack & Ruin”.
“Oh. No. Fucking. Way.” I recoiled as I’d just reached out and petted a 6-foot hungover scorpion.
“One of my best friends? Secretly allied with the Agency? No. Not possible.” I drained my drink and called for another.
“No. No. No. It can’t be. No. No fucking way…” as doubt began to dissolve when I thought back to all those times I had just ‘run into’ Toivo.
“But he’s oil patch as well. That could be chalked up to coincidence.” I ruminated quizzically in my brain.
I quickly reflected back on J.M. Darhower: “Yes, you see, there’s no such thing as coincidence. There are no accidents in life. Everything that happens is the result of a calculated move that leads us to where we are.”
She may be the author of the execrable New Adult Sempre series, which Esme likes and I loathe, but she might just be right on this occasion.
Toivo return, lighter in the bladder and good sense. He never even noticed he’d left his organizer out in broad bar light for all to see.
“So, Toivo, when’s your flight?” I ask.
“Oh, man. Was I lucky. The JAL flight to Tokyo from Los Angeles had mechanical trouble and had to divert here. I got a ticket on the plane for that flight, when it continues.
“You mean ‘if it continues’,” I replied.
“Yeah. Yeah. That’s what I meant. Hey! Was that your flight?” he asks innocently. He’s really innocent of fieldcraft.
I decide to have some fun at my old friend’s expense.
“Yep. Hit some CAT (Clear Air Turbulence) and the JAL pilots reported some lighting problem. No apparent ruin to any of the systems. They relay racked their brains to figure it out, but they couldn’t that’s why I here.” I said, waiting for the words to swim upstream in Toivo’s coconut and make some sort of connection.
“Yeah. Double lucky. No problem with the plane and I get to go to Japan early.” Toivo crookedly grins.
“So, no trouble with the plane? Then why haven’t I heard that the flight’s going to resume?” I asked as I pushed a fresh, seriously strong drink to Toivo.
“Oh, must have heard it in the john.” Toivo countered and tried to cover his tracks by taking a huge gulp of his drink and damn near dying coughing.
I pound on Toivo’s back.
“Heimlich time?” I ask.
Toivo signals ‘no’.
“Jesus Christ, Rock. What was that?” he asks.
“Just my usual”, I innocently replied.
“Holy fuck. No wonder you have the reputation of…” Toivo realizes too late that he’s said too much.
“Yeah. They can rack you out. Really ruin a person if they’re not careful.” I reply icily.
“Why, Rock. Whatever do you mean?” Toivo slurred as he realized he’s been caught out.
“The jig is up, you turncoat. You know Agents Rack and Ruin from the agency. Right? You keeping tabs on me for them? You Quisling! You Benedict Arnold!” I almost was on the verge of losing my cool.
“It was nothing. They approached me years ago as I kept being mentioned in your reports. They asked me for some information. One thing leads to another…” Toivo was ready for an Ankylosaur tail club swat to the bean.
“Oh, put your fucking hands down, you asshole.” I smiled and chuckled.
“You’re not mad?” Toivo slurred badly. I had the bartender make him another special drink.
“No, Toivo. Not mad. Just disappointed.” I said, smiling like a Komodo Dragon just finishing up a fortnight-old wildebeest.
Toivo sat there and puzzled and puzzled until his puzzler was sore.
“You’re not going to kill me or anything rude like that?” Toivo asked, half-assedly trying to inject humor into the proceedings.
“Nah. The paperwork’s too ridiculous for me to do another liberation. But, Jesus Fucking Christwagons, Toivo; you could have mentioned it to me. Fuck, I thought we were friends to the end?” I said, dejectedly.
I was really getting through to Toivo. I could tell he was loaded; feeling like shit and massively deplorable.
Great fieldcraft, indeed.
I told him things “are what they are” and that I won’t blow his cover nor his honorarium.
He began to feel better. I often wonder if he was serious about the sanctioning thing.
Then I delivered the strategic missile strike.
“Just remember, Toivo. I wrote your dossier for the Company…”
He swivels to look at me.
“And one for the KGB. Olga says ‘howdy’.” I grin evilly.
Toivo short-circuited at that. Russia is his company’s bread and butter. Now he has the KGB as well as his best buddy looking over his shoulder at every move.
I bought him a few more drinks and continued to needle him about his ’leading a double life’. He was well and truly fuckered when the electric tap-tap driver from before came looking for me to whisk me back to the plane.
Seems it was simply some knocked-out wires on the plane, or slammed bulbs that were generating a false positive, indicating something other than the system that alerts one to something haywire went haywire.
Toivo was pretty much down for the count. I got him sober enough to hand them his ticket and ensure that he was really supposed to be on this flight. Thing was; h e was in Economy, and I was, as always, in Business.
I spoke to Luna, and the plane was going to be even less crowded than previously because some folks could or wouldn’t wait, or didn’t want to go on with the rest of the trip on a ‘damaged’ aircraft, or were just stupid and superstitious.
“Luna, could I pay for the difference between Business and Economy for my less than 100% conscious friend here? He’s had a rough day.” I asked.
“Dr. Rock. Just put him into Business. No one will be the wiser. Luna says so.” As she gave us a grand smile.
“Luna, I owe you. Thanks so much.” I said.
“Now get on board. Your friend looks like he needs all the downtime he can get.”
“Yes, ma’am!” I said and saluted here be best I could which dragging a schnozzled Toivo down the jetway.
I dumped Toivo in a window seat well away from my seat. I know Toivo. He snores like a semi-load of live hogs rocketing downhill locking up the brakes at 88 MPH.
Surprise! There was no one else in Business. Luna looked at me, at Toivo, and gave me a thumbs up.
Whatever I can write to further her career at JAL, she’ll have it before I deplane.
We finally get everyone settled, and with Captain Kangaroo at the helm, we bounced gracelessly off the tarmac, into the warm, tropical Hawaiian air, finally headed for the Land of the Rising Sun.
Toivo was snoring like a chainsaw hitting rusty nails as I worked on the various letters, communiques, and dossiers which needed updating before we reached touchdown. I gave Luna a thick letter with instructions not to open it until we were on the ground and Toivo and I were well off and away into the terminal.
We left Hawaii at 1300 hours, so we should arrive at Tokyo Nareda around 4:00 pm, the previous day. I was so bereft of time and time zones, I couldn’t figure out what time it really was, as judged by my biometric rhythms, so I asked Luna for a stiff drink as I was kicking off my boots and going to attempt to get some kip.
She brought me another liter or so eponymous drink. I was sawing logs by the time I slurped the last swig of that nifty drink.
Suddenly, or later, I have no idea really, some loudmouth drunk asshole from way-the-fuck-back in economy-land toward the ass end of the plane staggered into Business demanding free drinks.
Luna was nothing but civil, and asked him to both shut up and return to his seat. His air cabin hostess, or whatever the fuck they’re calling them these days, will attend to his needs.
“Naw they won’t! They want me to pay for more drinks! I’m broke but I demand more booze! You fucking owe me.” railed the asshole. “I sat at the bar in Hawaii for four hours. Them fuckers charged me an arm and a leg!”
“No, they don’t owe you shit”, I said in a voice that unmistakably loud and clear.
“Fuck you, old man! You stay the fuck out of this!” he bellowed. “Shut up or I’ll do ya’!”
“’Old man’? ‘Do me’? Excuse me. Luna, may I have a word alone with this individual?” I asked sweetly.
Luna shook her head in the affirmative, and I stood up to confront this flagrant asshole.
“Now look, Scooter. You have gone way, way over the fucking line. You are loud. You are abusive. You are obnoxious. And you stink. Plus you insulted a person who is just barely containing his righteous wrath right now. So, I’m giving you one and one only chance to shut up, sit back down before your body spontaneously develops all sort of bruises, contusions, broken bones, and unconsciousness.” I said calmly, evenly, and threateningly.
“What da’ fuck you think you’re going to do…old man?” he screeched, trying to inflate himself into full mammalian threat posture, all 5’ 9” of it.
He didn’t notice Toivo walking up quietly behind him, as Toivo was returning from the head, quiet as a moose.
“Well, Scooter, I am an Air Marshall. Duly appointed, fully trained, and properly pissed off. Right now, I can arrest you, physically detain you, turn this flight around and take you to the Hawaiian police, at your cost for the inconvenience of the entire flight. Or I could arrest you, physically detain you, and turn you over to the Japanese authorities when we land. It’s really your choice. Choose wisely.”
To be continued…
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