Ravens vs. Rams Pick 11/25/19 - NFL Week 12 Predictions

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills’ roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 19th iteration of this analysis for the Bills’ upcoming AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in Kansas City. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long then you are well aware that these playoff posts are significantly longer. The increased length is intended to provide more details on the Bills’ opponent, including basic breakdowns of their offensive and defensive philosophies. If this is your first time reading this post and/or you are a Chiefs’ fan, feedback is always welcome!
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Defense
In 2020 the Buffalo Bills have gone from “Lovable Losers” to one of the most feared franchises in the NFL. A team which just last season was considered one built on a foundation of a fearsome defense and a mobile Quarterback has undergone a shift in perception rarely seen in the NFL. Yes, that defense is still scary (More on that later) and yes, the man under Center can still run (Also more on that later) but the evolution of two players in particular have altered the way that opposing teams, and their fans, view the Buffalo Bills. The first some may consider the Bills’ 2020 1st round pick and since arriving in Buffalo has done nothing less than stake his claim as one of, if not the, best WRs in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. Diggs has beaten anyone and everyone in front of him collecting 6+ catches in 17 out of his 18 games totaling 141 catches for 1770 yards and 10 TDs. These gaudy statistics are just the tangible portion of what Diggs has brought to the Bills while the intangible is derived from his mere presence, which has ignited a swagger not seen in Buffalo since, well, ever. Throwing him the ball is a man that has been analyzed and critiqued ad nauseum, the newest member of the Fraternity of Franchise QBs, Joshua Patrick Allen. At 5,564 yards and 50 TDs Allen has entrenched himself in the top tier of QBs, a set of players that defensive coordinators look to contain as opposed to stopping entirely and though few achieve this level of NFL success note that doing so does not preclude them from the occasional rough stretch.
And that is exactly what happened to Josh Allen during the 4-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8. In that span Allen, who would finish the regular season with a Passer Rating (PR) of 107.2, had a PR of just 79.2. This included a game against the Bills’ AFC Championship Game opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, where Allen had his worst Completion % of the season (51.9%) and his second lowest PR (73.4). Many have pondered what the root cause(s) of these struggles were for a QB who now will likely finish Top-3 in MVP voting, and two causes tend to be consistently repeated. The first of these, the weather, can easily be debunked. Against the Chiefs Josh Allen’s adjusted completion % (Less Drops) was 56.0% while Patrick Mahomes who, played in the same weather, had an adjusted completion % of 91.3%. It’s hard to fathom that the weather was such a detriment to only one QB that it resulted in him being 35.3% less “accurate” than the other. The second is a bit harder to debunk and is actually backed by some “expert” testimony. Just 15 days earlier in a game against Las Vegas, Allen would be hit awkwardly while attempting to extend a play and suffer an injury to his non-dominant (left) shoulder resulting in what many believe to have been a grade 1 AC Joint sprain. An injury which takes between 4-6 weeks to heal fits the timeline of Allen’s 4 weeks of below average QB play and is even propped up by 3-time Pro Bowl QB Matt Hasselback agreeing that such an injury makes it more difficult for a Quarterback to deliver a pass to his target accurately. Out of these two I find the injury much more plausible but after going back and watching the Chiefs @ Bills’ game I find it hard to believe either of these were the primary reason for the Chiefs domination of the Bills’ passing attack. With that in mind the best explanation, and what I believe to be the most likely, is that Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo simply had a brilliant game plan which the Chiefs executed perfectly ultimately slowing down the air attack of the Buffalo Bills.
The Chiefs plan was simple yet concise, blitz from all different angles while disguising coverage pre-snap. They would finish the game with 14 blitzes sending a total of 26 blitzers, 12 from LBs (Hitchens, Wilson, & Niemann), 3 from CBs (Fenton & Breeland), and 11 from Safeties (Mathieu & Sorensen). This constant shift in the level extra pass rushers were coming from often left the Bills’ OL scrambling to recover resulting in their QB being pressured on a season high 35.5% of dropbacks (His season average is 20.7%). Simultaneously the Chiefs were mixing Man and Zone coverage schemes which often included a deep spy that was keying off Josh Allen’s eyes. Allowing the Chiefs to accomplish this was a secondary stacked with “Jack-Of-All-Trades” CBs and one of the better safety trios, yes trios, in the NFL championed by a possible future HOF. Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, Rashad Fenton, and L’Jarius Sneed are all capable of covering the X, Y, or Z allowing the Chiefs to conceal their coverages and trade off assignments at will. Breeland the most notorious and proficient of the three works with hands on his assignment in order to control their movement and was flagged a total of 9 times this season, 3 of which came against the Bills. Behind them is a trio of Safeties that make the entire defense click; Daniel Sorensen, Tyrann Mathieu, and Juan Thornhill, who is primarily used in Nickel sets which the Chiefs run north of 60% of the time. Sorensen is as close as you can get to a modern-day John Lynch, a hard-hitting safety with ball skills that allow him to effectively play Center Field on deep passes. Mathieu is the afore mentioned HOF hopeful and can play anywhere from the LOS to a deep prevent position. One of the most feared defenders in all of football expect the Honey Badger to spy Josh Allen more than any other player on the Chiefs and make a few highlight reel plays at Arrowhead Sunday night.
Ultimately this matchup comes down to two things, can the Bills OL recognize the blitz pre-snap and can the Bills’ receivers find holes in the defense. From the perspective of the OL they are vastly improved since their last matchup with the Chiefs with Ike Boettger replacing Brian Winters at LG and Jon Feliciano returning from injury to man the RG position. These two bring a physicality to the OL which was surely lacking prior to their arrival. At the receiver position there is a bit more concern with Gabe Davis a DNP and both Cole Beasley & Stefon Diggs limited as of Thursday night’s injury report. It is a near certainty that both Beasley and Diggs will see the field Sunday night, but the possible loss of Gabe Davis looms large. The good news for Bills’ fans is that this is the exact reason the Bills went out and got Kenny Stills so if Gabe Davis is truly a no go expect to see Stills for the first time in a Bills’ uniform. There are two more dark horse candidates for a big game through the air, WR Isaiah McKenzie and TE Dawson Knox. McKenzie has played just 12 snaps so far throughout the playoffs but is due for a push pass or two especially against a blitz heavy team like the Chiefs. As for Dawson Knox his size and athleticism may be too much for the Chiefs LBs to handle which would then require Daniel Sorensen to come down into coverage. This would keep Sorensen out of the box and free up more underneath routes for the Bills. As with every week it comes down to individual matchups and whoever wins theirs will win this one. P.S. Don’t forget about John “Smoke” Brown.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Defense
While the Passing Game for the Bills has evolved into one of the best in the NFL the running game has regressed to the bottom tier of the league. This ineptitude has reached new depths with the Bills’ Running Backs combining for just 71 rushing yards (Josh Allen has 57) over the first two games of the playoffs. For context, all Non-Bills’ Playoff games have featured at least one player with 75+ rushing yards. Bills Mafia has been aware of these struggles since early in the season and exorcised their demons by lighting into OC Brian Daboll after he “excessively” ran the ball against the Colts. The following week, against the Ravens, Daboll flipped the script handing the ball off just 1 time in the first half and 9 times total to RBs who combined for a Y/A of just 3.2. It is abundantly clear to not just the Buffalo Bills but every other team in the NFL that this Bills’ team is a pass first team however, some semblance of balance will be needed if they are to reach the full potential necessary to chase down the Lombardi trophy.
Dependent on the gameplan which the Chiefs employ, running the ball could be an important part of the Bills’ offense on Sunday night. If the Chiefs do force the issue the Bills will be contending with the 19th ranked team in Y/A that just gave up over 5.0 Y/A against the Browns in the Divisional round. Of course that’s a Browns’ team that has both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt who were running behind one of the best run blocking OLs (#6 Adjusted Line Yards) in the NFL however, the Browns success against the Chiefs does not necessitate similar results for the Bills’ Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon who are running behind an inferior run blocking OL (#15 Adjusted Line Yards). Making it even more unlikely that the Bills could find success with a similar style of play is that most of the Browns’ success came when running the ball between the tackles. On 19 RB carries the Browns had 7 that went for 5+ yards 5 of which came when attacking this area. This relied heavily on the Browns interior line controlling the opposing DTs allowing the runners to get to the second level.
There is a further problem with this plan of attack though and he goes by the name of Chirs Jones. The massive 5-year vet drafted in the 2nd round out of Mississippi St. is a rare talent in the NFL, a game wrecker that can alter the outcome of any week. When talking about the best DTs in the NFL you will often hear names like Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, and Cameron Heyward but outside of Donald, there may be no one better at the position than Chris Jones. For his massive frame, 6’6” 310lb, Jones possesses incredible quickness that provides him with a tool bag of moves that range from outright bull rushes to tight swim moves. Jones is a pass rush expert that often finds his way into the lap of opposing QBs but his consistency in disrupting the run is what makes him one of the best all-around defenders in football. A disruptive bowling ball next to him comes in the form of NT Derrick Nnadi who I would doubt exceeds 50% of the defensive snaps this week with the Chiefs likely electing to go lighter in an effort to further disrupt the Bills’ passing attack. This means you should expect to see significantly more of the Chiefs primary 3-man DE rotation in Tershawn Wharton, Frank Clark, and Tanoh Kpassagnon. Like their comrades in the secondary each of these 3 players can play multiple positions provided by their quickness to set the edge and the size and strength to stuff the middle making them nightmare matchups for contending offensive linemen.
This all leads to the consensus that whether it be Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, Devonta Freeman, or even Reggie Gilliam the Bills will struggle to move the ball on the ground consistently, but they do have one X-Factor. That man is their rumbling bumbling 6’5” 240lb buffalo of a man, quarterback Josh Allen. In the last game against Kansas City Allen was able to account for 42 rushing yards on 8 carries often finding a corner to run to and beating the Chiefs LBs to the spot. The Chiefs have 3 good ones in Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson, and Ben Niemann who are all talented football players with large frames that allow them to handle extra blockers but that comes with a limitation to speed and quickness over the middle. The Bills will need to occasionally find success on the ground if they want to win the Time of Possession battle and all signs point to any success in the matter only available via one avenue, the legs of #17.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Offense
The Buffalo Bills play one of the most difficult defensive schemes to master in all of football, the Palms Defense. At a very high level this Zone scheme is built on the coverage units’ ability to communicate and trade off players as they get deeper into their routes. Its effectiveness begins with its pre-snap deceit which some Quarterbacks will find difficult to identify but culminates post-snap where it is nearly impossible to determine where the reads and tradeoffs will occur. It is the defensive equivalent of the Zone-Read offense and flips the advantage to favor the defense. This scheme has been utilized since Sean McDermott became the head coach of the Bills in 2017 and has resulted in them finishing no lower in Passer Rating (PR) against than 6th since that point in time. Even the 2020 Buffalo Bills would finish the season 5th overall with a PR against of 86.9 which early in the season seemed like an impossible feat.
Up until the Chiefs’ game the Bills were being torched through the air with a PR against of 103.6. If that were to have continued for the entire 2020 campaign the Bills would have finished 29th in the NFL in this statistic. This reached its crescendo against the Chiefs where despite bailing out to stop the pass, and then getting gashed on the ground, the Bills still managed to give up a PR of 128.4. There was clearly something wrong with a passing defense that by all measures had regressed as much or more so than the Bills’ QB had progressed, so I sought out to determine what the issue was. After a quick re-watch of the Chiefs’ game I came to find that the Palms defense was breaking down repeatedly with no clearer example than Travis Kelce’s second touchdown reception. I won’t rehash the entire analysis (If interested read the beginning of Bills’ Passing Defense here) but the tradeoffs necessitated by Palms were failing at nearly every turn. Something happened after the Chiefs game though, and the Bills began to find a rhythm. In fact, they found such a rhythm that through the remainder of the season they would hold opposing teams to a PR of just 72.6 and have continued that dominance in the playoffs allowing one of just 78.9. This Bills’ team that spent the early part of the 2020 season struggling to stop inferior opponents from moving the ball through the air and is now the best remaining team at stopping it which could come in handy with the remaining playoff QBs being Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and…
Patrick Mahomes. For the sake of this post I’m ignoring the “Will He, Won’t He” on whether or not he will play because I am fairly confident “He Will”. So, what is left to be said about Patrick Mahomes? Over the first few seasons of his career he owns just about every record a QB can own as well as an MVP award, a Lombardi Trophy, and a Super Bowl MVP. My definition of a “Gunslinger” Mahomes is willing to attempt any throw on the football field and can make any of those throws. As much as, if not more so than, Josh Allen, Mahomes’ excels when he breaks the pocket and the play falls apart leaving him to ad-lib with a slew of weapons and a well-coached offense that is able to take advantage of recovering defenders. Always the best player on the field, when Mahomes is on there is almost no stopping him and frankly, when he is off it’s still nearly impossible. The recipe for beating him is simply stated, and difficult to execute, the 1 or 2 throws a game where he misses his target, must be converted into turnovers.
This is in no way meant as a slight to Mahomes however, he has the perfect players around him that allow him to execute his game as he desires. On the one hand is Travis Kelce who may go down in history as the greatest TE to ever play the position and is, in my opinion, the best receiving threat to ever do it. In 2020 Kelce played just 15 games but broke the record for receiving yards by a TE with 1416 while raking in 105 catches and 11 TDs. The Bills attempt to limit him by alternating their LBs and Safeties onto him which results in the Bills spending more time in Big Nickel pushing players like Siran Neal onto the field more often. Next up is the man known as “Cheetah”, Tyreek Hill. Hill is one of the more disrespected on field talents in the NFL and statistically is right there with players like Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Better yet, Hill fits Mahomes in the same way Diggs fits Allen except as more of a home run threat that is going to consistently test Micah Hyde’s prowess as one of the best prevent safeties in the NFL. Outside of Hill and Kelce there are a ton of other weapons for this passing game to utilize. The speedy Mecole Hardman, the “Real Deal” Demarcus Robinson, and the Bills’ previous #4 overall pick Sammy Watkins. Pick your poison against this team but regardless the Bills’ CBs and especially their Safeties will have their hands full Sunday night.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Offense
The Bills’ rushing defense is coming off a game in which they may not have shut down the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack, but they surely contained it. This was a Ravens’ team that led the NFL in Rushing Y/G at 191.2 and Y/A at 5.5 and managed just 150 yards at 4.7 Y/A against the Bills. How was Buffalo able to do this? Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier challenged the Ravens to beat them through the air by running 3 LB sets on 41% of snaps and bringing down one of Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde to stack the box with 7 or 8 players on nearly every play. This, often, left the Bills’ DBs matched up in a rare version of single coverage which the Bills won on a consistent basis. An eye-opening game for the Bills and one that they won because of scheme, a scheme they can’t afford to run against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are more than competent of moving the ball on the ground, when at full health. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) burst onto the scene early in 2020 and was on pace to finish with just around 1000 rushing yards before suffering a substantial high-ankle sprain against the Saints on December 20th. Sidelined now for just over 1 month CEH is bordering on healthy enough to play with the average recovery time between 4-6 weeks. If CEH cannot suit up the likely replacement for him is not Le’Veon Bell (Who is now dealing with a knee injury) but instead 3rd year back Darrel Williams. In the Chiefs’ 1st playoff game against the Browns Williams would finish with 13 carries to Bells’ 2. Primarily a deep depth player Williams is getting more work now than he has at any other point in his professional career. Dynamic enough a player in his Senior season at LSU, with 1151 yards and 9 TDs on 168 touches, the Chiefs took a flyer on him picking him up as an undrafted rookie in 2018. A 1-cut back that finishes downhill Williams who is listed at 5’11” 224lb looks much smaller but plays like a bruiser. As for the previously mentioned Le’Veon Bell, he has exceeded 35% of offensive snaps just once since joining the Chiefs and saw a season low of 16% in the first round of the playoffs. I postured it when it happened but with the Bills in the mix for Bell earlier in the season is it possible the Chiefs were keeping him away from a team they could see in the AFC Championship game? Something to think about.
In front of whoever is running the ball is an offensive line, that like the Bills, looks a little different from the last time these two teams faced off. At Center the Chiefs elected to start veteran Daniel Kilgore over presumptive starter Austin Reiter. Reiter would eventually regain his starting role in Week 9 and will get the start against the Bills on Sunday. At RT Mitchell Schwartz started the game against Buffalo but after suffering a back injury early in that game has now been replaced by ex-Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Rams, Vikings, and Giants tackle Mike Remmers. The other 3 positions are held by men that Bills saw in their last matchup. Andre Wylie (RG), an undrafted free agent from 2018, and Nick Allegretti (LG), a 7th round pick in 2019, man the guard positions where they combine to be roughly 630 pounds and are capable of pushing the DTs in front of them back into opposing LBs. The OL is topped off by its headliner, Left Tackle, Eric Fisher who earned his second Pro Bowl nod this season and has been one of the more consistent linemen in the NFL over his 8-year career which started with him being the #1 overall pick in 2013. Fisher has incredibly quick feet and long arms which will provide him an advantage over whichever pass rusher lines up over him.
I would not be surprised in the least if the Bills employ the same defensive scheme they did against the Chiefs in their first matchup during the AFC Championship game. Forcing the Chiefs to run the ball at a defense which now includes the most underrated player in all the NFL, Matt Milano, should play right into Buffalo’s hands. If the Chiefs take the bait and elect to go this route it should surprise everyone if they exceed their 221 rushing yards from the previous matchup. The Bills’ Front 7 has vastly improved since that matchup and should see new faces, including Harrison Phillips, making plays up front. Expect a light lineup at times during the game meaning more Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson as the Bills’ attempt to pressure Mahomes and force the Chiefs to run up the middle. This puts heavy reliance on the Bills’ LBs to clean up the scraps which via dramatic improvement, Tremaine Edmunds looks more capable of now than at any other point in the season. One player that goes un-talked about way more than he should is Safety Jordan Poyer. A massive Pro Bowl snub, Poyer is playing with a chip on his shoulder and under the bright lights with a chance to prove why he is not just one of the best in the AFC but the entire NFL, expect a big game from him and keep your eyes peeled for his use of the “Peanut Punch”.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Chiefs’ Special Teams
Coming into the playoffs the Buffalo Bills were widely considered to have one of the best ST units in the entire NFL, which has been tested through 2 weeks. In the Wildcard round the Buffalo Bills played the Indianapolis Colts whose Special Teams consisted of above average return groups, excellent coverage units, a similar kicker to the Bills, and one of the more efficient punters in the NFL. The Bills may have lost the field position battle here but when calling upon their punter and kicker they answered the bell every time while a Colts’ missed kick ultimately decided the game. Against the Ravens the Bills would play one of, if not, the greatest kickers of all time in Justin Tucker, a punter that had barely given up any return yards, and solid return and coverage teams. As the game ended the Bills and Ravens’ Punters paced each other, as did the Bills rookie Kicker to Justin Tucker, while Andre Roberts was the only return man able to pick up yards in the return game (34 in total). Were these decisive victories for the Bills against opposing Special Teams? No. But when going against the best and at a minimum finishing neck and neck with them the Bills’ Special Teams have clearly announced themselves as a weapon in the playoffs.
As we roll on in the playoffs I would not be surprised if, though I would advise against, this is the last time we see Andre Roberts in a Buffalo Bills’ uniform. Still, the 2020 2nd Team All-Pro is a weapon for Buffalo and while he still is yet to score a TD for the Bills don’t be surprised if he has a splash play or two left in him. Heck, there is even a chance he could be the deciding factor between the Chiefs and Bills. At Punter is Corey Bojorquez who has had a Renaissance of a season and is undoubtedly in the upper echelon of Punters in the NFL. Last is Bills’ Kicker Tyler Bass who against the Ravens missed his first FG kick(s) since his 61-yard miss against Seattle back in early November. Bass quietly put together a rookie season for the ages and looks to be on the trajectory to emerge as one of the better kickers in the NFL.
For the Chiefs they trot out 2019 Pro Bowl return man Mecole Hardman who is one of the scarier return men in the NFL. In 2020 his stats have dropped off drastically as he has fallen to 7.0 Y/PR (9.3 in 2019) and 20.4 Y/KR (26.1 in 2020). Still Hardman did bring a punt back for a TD this season and has 4.33 40yd speed making him a dangerous return man to contend with on Sunday. This means for the 3rd straight game Bills’ fans can expect Buffalo to bypass their short kick strategy and kick the ball out of the back of the endzone. At Punter is Tommy Townsend the rookie out of Florida who had a solid campaign as a Punter in his first season. Townsend would finish the season with a Punt Avg of 45.0 and a Net Punt Avg of 40.4 right around the middle of the NFL in both categories. At kicker is Harrison Butker who at times is in contention for best kicker in the NFL and at others misses kicks that even Sam Ficken could hit. On the regular season Butker went 25 of 27 on Field Goals with misses from 42 and 48 but just 48 of 54 (88.9%) from XP. In his first playoff game against the Browns Butker would go on to miss 1 of 2 FGs (33yd) and 1 XP. This is without a doubt something to monitor during the AFC Championship.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
All season long these posts have been filled with a recurring statement, “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team”. Sure, I could argue that to be true this week, but I could just as easily argue that the Chiefs are more talented. It all starts on offense where a large amount of the credit is owed to…Andy Reid? Yes, Andy Reid the coach who had turned Donovan McNabb into a household name, Michael Vick into an MVP contender, and Alex Smith into a perennial winner as a starting QB has now been handed the keys to a QB who may just be better than all of them combined. Reid will find the weak points in the Bills’ defense and he will attack them over and over until the Chiefs put up enough points to win the game. Kelce is a mismatch, Hill is a zone breaker, they will run the ball effectively, and Mahomes will make big play after big play.
And then there’s their unheralded defense that has quietly been improving as the season went on and at points was the key to them winning football games. They have the two dynamos in Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones who have been described in detail above while the other 9 players on the field with them complement each other well. The Chiefs will send complex blitzes at Allen, stuff the run, blow up the Bills’ receivers and force multiple turnovers turning what should be a close game into a blowout. All those statements are feasible outcomes of this game and if even a portion of them were to occur expect the Chiefs to head to their second straight Super Bowl.
Why We Will Win
This is not the same Bills’ team that the Chiefs played on October 19th. This isn’t the same Bills’ team that people have known for the past quarter century. Instead this is a Bills’ team that has showed an affinity for showing up when the whole world is watching. Led by one of the toughest coaches in the NFL the Bills will arrive in Kansas City prepared and their OC, Brian Daboll, will have a gameplan ready to attack a Chiefs’ defense which does not match up well with the Bills’ offense. Yes, they have a competent secondary but if Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters were unable to shutdown Stefon Diggs who on the Chiefs will be able to? Factor that in with the other weapons the Bills have in the passing game and a Quarterback that will surely exceed what he did the last time these two teams met, and the Bills are on the precipice of a 30+ point outing.
Is this the same defense that the Chiefs saw in the early part of the 2020 season? No. Back then the Bills’ Palms defense was struggling, and they were without the player that makes their defense hum, OLB Matt Milano. Still, the defense came inches away from turning the tide of the game in October when Justin Zimmer tackled CEH for a 4-yard loss and what looked to be a fumble but was later overturned. By mere inches the Chiefs avoided giving the ball to the Bills on the 35-yard line up 6 with 5:23 left to play. But close only counts in horseshoes in hand grenades and on Sunday night this Bills’ defense isn’t looking for close enough, they are looking to dominate. Turnovers are the key for the Bills and if Buffalo can limit them on their side and force 2+ by KC then the Buffalo Bills who are STARVING to get to a Super Bowl will punch their ticket to Tampa Bay.
Prediction: Bills 31 – Chiefs 28
Coming into writing this post I was confident I was going to choose the Chiefs to win this game. They already beat the Bills this season, the game is in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are experienced in the AFC Championship. Then I started looking at the matchups and I noticed that most of the downfalls of their previous game resembled more aberrations than dominations. Don’t get me wrong the Chiefs could easily win this game but something just feels right about picking Buffalo this week. I expect this game to go down as one of those instant classics we talk about years from now and possibly start a new rivalry in the NFL. At the end of the day I think there will be one big play that decides this game. It could be a Honey Badger strip sack, could be a tip drill between Hyde and Poyer, could be a last second scramble by Patty Mahomes, or could be a rocket thrown by Josh Allen hitting Diggs deep. But I’ll take the Bills making that play. So, Mount Up Mafia, it’s almost game time.

Don't Panic: An Analysis of the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A lot of us are having some major sports PTSD right now. Two years in a row, a team that beat the shit out of the Packers in the regular season is the Packers' opponent in the NFC Championship Game. Many wonder if history will repeat itself, and here are a few reasons why I think it won't.
#1: The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not the 2019 San Francisco 49ers
Last year's 49ers were the best team in the league. I know they lost the Super Bowl, but they controlled that game for the majority of its duration, and they easily could have won if a few plays went differently (3rd and 15 being the most obvious). They had the best defense in the league (I know the Patriots were technically #1 last year but they played absolutely nobody and looked worse as the season progressed), and they had an incredibly efficient offense under Shanahan. That defensive line in particular is in my opinion an all-time great unit. It had: Nick Bosa, the defensive rookie of the year; DeForest Buckner, who is 1st-team All-Pro this year and earned 2nd-team All-Pro last year; Arik Armstead, who had 10 sacks over the season; and D.J. Jones, the least-decorated of the group, but a very solid piece who embarrassed Corey Linsley (the best center in football this year) on multiple snaps. That's just in insane group, and they were able to handily beat the Packers' O-Line by just rushing four. The defense had great linebackers behind that line, and one of the best secondaries in the NFL behind the linebackers. They were stacked.
The 2019 49ers were also just 7 points away combined from going 16-0. They lost by a field goal in OT to Seattle in a back-and-forth game, by a field goal on the road at the AFC 1 seed Ravens, and then by 1 point to the Falcons at home (I'm not counting the last fumble TD, which was borne out of a desperation play). 7 points away from being undefeated. And they were banged up vs the Falcons, too. The 2019 49ers were never not in control of a game they played. They were always competitive, even against elite competition. They won a few close games, but with the exception of their December games vs New Orleans and LA, ESPN's win probability meter never had them at significant odds to lose any of these. They were the best team in the league.
The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not the best team in the league. They're 11-5 and they were swept by the Saints in blowout fashion and lost close games to the Bears, Chiefs, and Rams. They also struggled in several games which they ultimately won: they had a comeback vs the Chargers and were down by 17 at multiple points in their first game at Atlanta. Where the '19 49ers essentially played well against everyone on the schedule, the Buccaneers have struggled down the stretch. They ended up 11-5, but they very easily could be a 10-6 or even 9-7 team. They've shown vulnerability in multiple games, and a few of their losses were pretty ugly.
This brings me to my next point:
#2: Green Bay is a lot better than teams that have had success vs the Buccaneers this year
Green Bay got whooped by Tampa in week 6, but it remains the lone blowout loss the Packers have suffered in 2020. The Packers' other two losses this year were at Indianapolis and at home vs Minnesota. Both were very winnable games, and came down to one score. Given the broader context of the season, the Tampa game seems like an outlier more than anything. And last year, Green Bay suffered two blowout losses (prior to the third in the playoffs): at SF and at LAC.
To show how much of an outlier the Tampa game was, here's a DVOA stats comparison. I personally find DVOA a bit flawed in that it doesn't really account for how much teams can improve over the course of a season, but it's popular, so here:
Counting this week, Green Bay played 6 of the top 10 defenses by DVOA in the NFL this year, over 7 games. At New Orleans (#2), vs LAR (#4), at TB (#5), at SF (#6), at IND (#7), and then home and away vs Chicago (#8).
Their stats vs Tampa were: 10 points, 201 yards, 3.3 yards per play. Pretty ugly
Their stats in the other 6 games were, on average: 35 points, 389 yards, 6.5 yards per play. !!!
Minus the Tampa game, Green Bay has actually performed better than their season averages against top ten defenses. And it's not like Tampa was the best of the bunch! They were #5 and this^ includes two games against teams that ranked higher than them.
Green Bay (the #1 offense by DVOA) can compete against anybody. I think Tampa caught them on an off day, on the road, in the sun. And don't forget that Green Bay was up by 10 before the pick six and subsequent tipped-int. The Packers were wrecking the Buccaneers' gameplan until they started blitzing their middle linebackers off the edge and Rodgers got rattled and it was downhill from there. I don't think that'll happen twice, and the Packers' record against quality opponents reflects that.
But the Buccaneers have struggled against opponents of lesser quality than Green Bay. In some cases, far lesser quality. Here are a few statlines they've allowed:
vs KC (#2 offense by DVOA): 27 points, 543 yards, 7.5 yards per play
vs LAR (#10 offense by DVOA): 27 points, 413 yards, 5.8 yards per play
vs Carolina (#17 offense by DVOA): 17 points, 427 yards, 6.0 yards per play (they forced 4 turnovers this game, but it goes without saying that GB can't turn the ball over vs Tampa and expect to win)
2 games vs Falcons (#21 offense by DVOA): 27 points, 377 yards per game, 5.6 yards per play
3 games vs Saints (#7 offense by DVOA): 31 points per game, 328 yards per game, 4.9 yards per play
at WFT (#32 offense by DVOA, admittedly with Heinicke in this game): 23 points, 375 yards, 5.4 yards per play
vs LAC (#15 offense by DVOA): 31 points, 324 yards, 6.5 yards per play
Teams do move the ball against this defense. In some cases, they do it quite a lot. I don't know that it'll be realistic for Green Bay to hang 543 yards on Tampa, but hey, someone did it this year. And Green Bay just hung 484 on a Rams defense that hadn't allowed more than 390 all year.
The Rams and Falcons games really stick out to me, in particular. Tampa gave up 413 yards to the same Rams offense Green Bay held to 244 (admittedly without Kupp), and they gave up 377 on average in their two games against a Falcons team GB held to 327. These aren't crazy talented offenses (like GB is) and yet they put up solid numbers against the Buccaneers. If Green Bay has done their homework, and figured out an answer to Tampa's blitzing, I don't see any reason why they can't have the kind of success against the Buccaneers these teams did.

But what about the defense?
Okay, so remember what I said about DVOA? I think it's unfair to units that improve down the stretch of the season, and I think Green Bay's defense is definitely one of those units. Football Outsiders has GB ranked #17 on defense and I think that's kind of bullshit. The #17 defense doesn't hold Tennessee (#4 offense) to 14 points. The #17 defense doesn't allow an average of 287 yards, 16 points, and 4.8 yards per play down the stretch to three straight playoff teams in a row in Tennessee, Chicago, and LA (#4, #25, and #10 ranked offenses, respectively).
I'm gonna go with EPA on this one. EPA has Green Bay ranked #5 on defense since week 9 and I think that's reflective of how well this team has played down the stretch. Tampa's defense is #12 by this metric since week 9, by the way.
Anyway, #3: Green Bay actually has a defense to match Tampa's, and even exceed it depending on where you look
Green Bay's defense is really good this year. They were pretty average early in the season, but they've turned into an elite unit down the stretch. They've given up more than 400 yards once all year at Indianapolis, which is more than the Buccaneers can say, and they've performed similarly and better in cases against common opponents.
I think GB has the best secondary in football right now. Jaire is PFF's #1 CB, and Amos and Savage are both in its top 10 for safety rankings. King is serviceable, and guys like Sullivan and Redmond get the job done when called upon.
Z's been in PFF's top 15 edge rushers all year, and Gary made headlines this week because he's posted PFF grades above 90 against Tennessee and Chicago recently, and he posted above 80 against the Rams. That puts him among the best in the league right now. Clark just had a sack and a half against the Rams this week, and Preston's looked good recently, with some pressures and a few batted balls. This defensive front is scary. This defense is scary.
That brings me to my last point.
#4: It's different this time around.
This time around, it's at home. This time around, Green Bay's got a full season of Tampa's defense on tape. They can see how teams have racked up yards against them, and they can plan for the blitz looks Tampa hurled at them out of nowhere in week 6.
This time, it'll be below freezing outside as a Florida team travels a thousand miles north to play in the snow for the first time in many of their players' careers. They're gonna be tested by cold wind and sleet, and it'll be loud, too. There are gonna be thousands of fans in attendance, cheering the Packers on.
Tampa Bay is damn good. Tom Brady is damn good. His receivers are damn good. His running back is damn good. His offensive line (increasingly injured as it may be) is damn good. But Green Bay's offense is better.
Tampa Bay's defense is really good. But I think Green Bay's is better. If any secondary can match up against Godwin/Evans/Brown, it's Amos/Savage/Jaire. If any front four can get pressure on Brady, it's Z/Clark/Preston/Gary.
I think Green Bay's got this. I sure hope they do.

The Top 20 Largest Rivalries of the Last 10 Years According to Data

Using knowrivalry.com and footballdb.com I have calculated the top 20 rivalries in the NFL of the past 10 years (beginning January 3rd, 2011). To calculate the size of a rivalry I whipped up an equation: a+g+(p*20)+(a/(d/2)) = total score
Key:
a = aggregate score on knowrivalry (eg Lions assigned 44.12 rivalry points to the Packers, and the Packers assigned 12.81 rivalry points to the Lions, therefore the aggregate score is 56.92)
d = difference between the two scores on knowrivalry (eg Lions assigned 44.12 rivalry points to the Packers, and the Packers assigned 12.81 rivalry points to the Lions, therefore the difference is 31.31)
g = regular season matchups since Week 1 of the 2011 season
p = postseason matchups since Round 1 of the 2010-2011 postseason
There was an instance where the difference divided by 2 equaled less than 1 (Seahawks and Rams), so I manually overrode that and turned it into a 1, for the Seahawks and Rams are obviously not the biggest rivals in pro football.
Before we start the list I want to mention 10 rivalries that I personally wish were more severe, and if you feel the same way go to knowrivalry.com and take the survey.
Chiefs vs Patriots with a score of 48
AFC Championship which went into overtime
1-20-2019
Rams vs Patriots with a score of 48.5
Super Bowl LIII when everyone but the Pats lost
2-3-2019
Giants vs Patriots with a score of 38.87
Super Bowl XLVI when the Giants won... again
2-5-2012
Giants vs Jets with a score of 20.51
Overtime thriller with plenty of Fitzmagic
12-6-2015
Colts vs Chiefs with a score of 55.08
2nd largest comeback in NFL history
1-4-2014
Packers vs Cowboys with a score of 58.22
Packers heartbreakingly eliminate the Cowboys in the postseason... twice in 3 seasons
1-11-2015, 1-15-2017
Packers vs Seahawks with a score of 86.29
NFC Championship which had an onside kick
1-18-2015
Packers vs 49ers with a score of 87.28
49ers eliminate the Packers in back to back postseason... and again in 2020
1-12-2013, 1-5-2014
Saints vs Seahawks with a score of 52.71
Saints go on the road to Seattle to lose in heartbreaking fashion... twice... in the playoffs
1-08-2011, 1-11-2014
Saints vs Vikings with a score of 58.31
Minneapolis Miracle and then another big upset two post seasons later
1-14-2018, 1-5-2020
So now for the real list. If you have any disagreements talk about it in the comments, but also go to knowrivalry.com and take the survey so you can really change the data we have on rivalries.

XX. Raiders vs Chargers with a score of 91.90
An excellent geographical rivalry between the Bay Area and San Diego is now a shell of what it once was. I’m expecting this to fizzle out because neither team has been in AFC Title contention in the 2010s, and now both teams are in new and unfamiliar locations. It is also very one-sided.
Matchup in L.A. where the Raiders hosted their first true home game since 1994
12-31-2017
Chargers lose after a last second touchdown call was reversed
11-8-2020
XIX. Giants vs Eagles with a score of 92.72
This is definitely the most overrated rivalry in the NFL. Neither team has been good at the same time in the past 10 years, so the bitterness only remains from great games from a long time ago. It is also pretty one-sided, both in terms of wins and losses and their scores on knowrivalry.
Jake Elliot kicks the longest field goal in Eagles history to win the game
9-24-2017
Eagles win in overtime to keep their playoff hopes alive
12-9-2019
XVIII. Panthers vs Saints with a score of 98.69
Pretty good rivalry within the most volatile division in football. The Panthers and Saints have fought for NFCS Championships which makes this rivalry a really good one in recent years. It is one sided on knowrivalry, but pretty close in terms of wins and losses in the series.
Panthers drive down the field in the end of the 4th quarter to remain undefeated
12-6-2015
Wildcard matchup where Cam Newton injures his head-- or maybe his eye?
1-7-2018
XVII. Cowboys vs Football Team with a score of 101.12
A classic rivalry with a similar name to the popular kids game “Cowboys and Sports Team.” Neither team has been relevant since the early 90s, so this rivalry is kept on life support by annual Thanksgiving day matchups. It is a one-sided affair, but in 2020 the Football Team swept the Cowboys for the first time since 2012, so this might change.
De facto NFCE Championship game where the Football Team won
12-30-2012
Cowboys nearly choke on Thanksgiving, but win to advance to a 10-1 record
11-24-2016
XVI. Titans vs Jaguars with a score of 104.79
An extremely lopsided rivalry, but the Jaguars hate the Titans so much this rivalry ranks 16th in the past 10 years. Both teams have been awful, and they’ve been awful at the same time. The only notable games I could find were tank bowls (which are fun in their own right). While the Titans are good now, the Jaguars were literally the worst team in 2020. Hopefully Lawrence and Meyer can breathe new life into this potentially great rivalry.
Tank bowl in week 16 where the Titans lost and secured the 2nd overall pick
12-18-2014
Tank bowl in week 13 where the Titans won but secured the 1st overall pick
12-6-2015
XV. Broncos vs Patriots with a score of 106.20
Probably the greatest quarterback rivalry in NFL history. Two AFC Championships will certainly cause a rivalry between two teams, and especially if their quarterbacks are the two greatest quarterbacks of all-time. It’s also decently mutual with Pats fans expressing disdain toward the Broncos on knowrivalry. I don’t think this rivalry will live on for long.
Patriots have a huge comeback in the second half to eventually win in overtime
11-24-2013
AFC Championship where the best statistical offense of all-time wins (Broncos)
1=19=2014
AFC Championship where a failed 2 point conversion hands the Broncos the W
1-24-2016
XIV. Browns vs Steelers with a score of 108.07
This is a wildly lopsided rivalry, but I’m hoping that could change in the upcoming years. The Steelers were 35-7-1 against the expansion team until the 2020 season where the Browns may have turned a new leaf. This has potential to be a big rivalry in this decade.
Steelers rest most of their starters in week 17 but still beat the winless Browns
12-31-2017
Despite winning the game Browns DE Myles Garrett bashes Steelers QB Mason Rudolph over the head with his own helmet. Fights ensue and a coach gets fired
11-14-2019
The “Browns is the Browns” game in the wildcard round. This is technically the Browns’ first playoff win. Did you know the Steelers started the season 11-0?
1-10-2021
XIII. Ravens vs Patriots with a score of 108.76
This is the 2nd biggest non-divisional rivalry in the NFL, and that’s because of postseason matchups. The rivalry almost ended until Lamar Jackson came into the fold to challenge Brady for AFC dominance. Now that Brady’s gone this rivalry will probably die. P.S. I want everyone on this subreddit to go on knowrivalry and make the Ravens and Chiefs the new big thing.
AFC Championship where the Ravens lost on a missed field goal. In the following offseason they got Justin Tucker who would help them next year
1-22-2012
AFC Championship where the Ravens didn’t really need Justin Tucker to win
1-20-2013
Ravens meet the Patriots in the postseason for the 3rd time in 4 seasons. Joe Flacco loses the game for the Ravens and the Patriots win the Super Bowl
1-10-2015
XII. Rams vs Seahawks with a score of 115.64
This rivalry was arguably enhanced when the Rams moved to the same time zone as the Seahawks, and it’s been very requited ever since. For whatever reason Jeff Fisher was Pete Carrol’s kryptonite, but even now the Rams still beat the Seahawks more often than not. This will be a great rivalry for the rest of the decade as both teams battle for NFCW ownership.
Season opener where the Seahawks lost in overtime because they handed the ball off to Marshawn Lynch instead of passing it to Tyler Lockette
9-13-2015
Close game where Greg Zuerlein missed a 44 yard field goal and the Rams lost
10-4-2019
Wildcard round where the Seahawks only had 11 players on the field. They lost
1-9-2021
XI. Bengals vs Steelers with a score of 116.85
I was hoping this rivalry would make the list, and I’m really glad it is ranked this high. It is an insanely one-sided affair, but just because the fans don’t hate each other doesn’t mean the players don’t. Let’s see what happens when the two least well-behaved and least disciplined squads face each other twice a year and once in the playoffs.
Wildcard round where the Bengals ended the longest playoff win drought in NFL history, but Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones had a different plan. Despite the fact that the Bengals won the game, they managed to ultimately lose the game
1-9-2016
Primetime game where Ryan Shazier broke his back, William Jackson decided to not tackle Le'Veon Bell, and JuJu Smith-Schuster body slammed Vontaze Burfict. The Bengals were penalized 13 times and blew a 17 point lead
10-22-2017
Steelers miraculously win on a last minute touchdown pass to Antonio Brown
10-14-2018
X. Colts vs Texans with a score of 118.93
Yet another ridiculously one-sided rivalry. The Colts dominated the AFCS until Deshaun Watson came along and helped the Texans compete with the Colts. This rivalry is going to become even more lopsided as the Texans venture into the great unknown.
Texans defeat the Colts to snap their lengthy streak of division wins
1-9-2016
Overtime thriller where the Colts played for a win instead of a tie, but lost
9-30-2018
Wildcard round where the Colts thoroughly beat the Texans on the road
1-5-2019
IX. Broncos vs Raiders with a score of 120.07
This is a transparently a goes-both-ways rivalry both in terms of wins and losses and their scores on knowrivalry. This is the battle for Utah as both teams now border the state, so this is a great geographical rivalry too. We will probably never see them face off in the playoffs though.
Broncos defeat the Raiders to knock them down from the 2 seed to the 5 seed
1-9-2016
Michael Crabtree and Aqib Talib have one of the biggest fights in NFL history
11-26-2017
A 2nd quarter blocked PAT ultimately helped the Broncos win this game 20-19
9-18-2018
VIII. Packers vs Vikings with a score of 126.17
The 3rd most unbalanced rivalry in the NFL according to knowrivalry. Both teams have been duking it out for NFCN dominance in the past 10 years. I would’ve expected this rivalry to be a lot bigger because the states border each other, but Packers fans do not take the Vikings seriously at all. Fun fact: they ended matchups in ties twice in the 2010s
Wildcard game where the Packers beat the Vikings right after losing to them
1-6-2013
De facto NFCN Championship game where Rodgers’s hail mary actually failed
1-3-2016
Critical week 16 game that gave the Packers the NFCN division title
12-23-2019
VII. Colts vs Patriots with a score of 126.66
The highest ranked non-divisional rivalry is also the most unbalanced according to knowrivalry. The last Colts quarterback to beat the Patriots was Peyton Manning back in 2009. Perhaps Patriots fans hated the Colts in the 2000s but the animosity is not there anymore. The Colts still hate the Patriots though. In fact, they assigned more rivalry points to them than any team in their own division, so I personally agree that this rivalry should be in the top 10.
Divisional round game where the Colts almost managed to come back until imploding in the 4th quarter
1-11-2014
AFC Championship where the Colts lost by 38 points, but there was something strange happening on the Patriots’ side...
1-18-2015
“What... the... heck?” “What in the world? Flag is down. You tell me.”
10-18-2015
VI. Cowboys vs Eagles with a score of 129.67
This is a pretty groan-worthy rivalry if you ask me. Dallas has not been a serious contender in 25 years, but when they reach the playoffs they never face the Eagles (in the past 10 years). The Eagles tend to lose to the Cowboys in recent memory even though they’ve had better postseason success. Maybe someday in the distant future these teams will be relevant again.
De facto NFCE Championship where Dallas lost on a failed 2 point conversion
12-29-2013
High scoring game ended in an overtime loss for the Eagles. EDP445’s video title: Another epic eagles collapse! Sorry ass pieces of shit
10-30-2016
Yet another game ended in an overtime loss for the Eagles which gave the Cowboys the NFCE title. EDP445’s video title: Nearly fired over the eagles
12-9-2018
V. Jets vs Patriots with a score of 160.75
Fun fact: the first trade these two organizations made since the Patriots acquired Bill Belichick? It was in 2019. These teams hate each other and surprisingly the fans hate each other too. Pats fans hate the Jets more than any other team, and vice versa. It is a hilariously one-sided affair on the field though. Let’s look at some notable games of the past 10 years.
Jets pull off a massive upset in Foxboro to advance to the AFC Championship
1-16-2011
The Butt Fumble. “It is the perfect representation of failure, buffoonery, submission, and outstanding comedic timing.” - UrinatingTree
11-22-2012
Patriots come back in the 4th quarter to reassure their spot as AFCE leaders
10-25-2015
Austin Seferian-Jenkins scores a crucial 4th quarter touchdown which gets controversially overturned; the ball was given to the Patriots at their 20 yard line because of a mind-bendingly awful touchback rule
10-15-2017
IV. Seahawks vs 49ers with a score of 163.75
This is one of the closest contested rivalries of the past 10 years. Both teams have won numerous NFC Championships recently, and both fanbases hate each other equally. We can expect this rivalry to live on for several more years as they are geographically fighting for Oregon, and they will both be in contention for the NFC West (as long as Russell Wilson plays).
Frank Gore tears into the Seahawks defense to win the game in the final minute
12-8-2013
NFC Championship where the 49ers tried the best corner in the game with a sorry receiver like Crabtree. They should have never talked about him
1-19-2014
Overtime thriller where the 49ers tried to harm the Seahawks’ playoff chances. They won but the Seahawks still reached the postseason
12-16-2018
De facto NFCW Championship game where the Seahawks forgot to snap the ball at the 1 yard line, so the 49ers won and were given the 1 seed
12-29-2019
III. Bears vs Packers with a score of 176.56
This is obviously a great historic rivalry. The Packers just recently took the lead in the series, and it is looking like they are going to run with it. The rivalry is very unbalanced according to knowrivalry, but the Packers do hate the Bears more than any other team. This rivalry is so important that the NFL interrupted the tradition of scheduling the season opener for the defending Super Bowl champs so that the Packers and Bears could play for the 100th season.
NFC Championship where the Bears were underdogs at home, and they lost
1-23-2011
De facto NFCN Championship game where the Packers miraculously won
12-29-2013
Yet another Soldier Field game where Rodgers broke hearts. “Rodgers has time. Now some pressure, throws it deep, Jordy Nelson... he’s got it!”
12-18-2016
Sunday Night season opener where Aaron Rodgers comes back from 20 points late in the 3rd quarter, and he did it on one leg. Or this can be known as the biggest choke the Bears ever had. Fun fact: they passed the ball on 3rd & 1
9-9-2018
II. Saints vs Falcons with a score of 187.96
Of course this rivalry is on this list. It is incredible how much these teams and fanbases hate each other, and how many times they’ve played must-win games. Surprisingly they haven’t met each other in the playoffs in a long time even though they’ve both been good recently. This rivalry will still be a doozie for years to come as both teams will be similarly awful for a while.
Overtime thriller where the Falcons ran a terrible play on 4th and inches and lost
11-13-2011
Important Thursday night game where Sean Payton taunted the Falcons then later ran onto the field to immediately get penalized and lose the game
12-29-2013
Overtime thriller where Drew Brees ran for two touchdowns to win the game
9-23-2018
Coming into this game the Falcons were 14 point underdogs. They proceeded to win 26-9 and the Saints eventually had to settle for the 3 seed in the playoffs
11-10-2019
I. Steelers vs Ravens with a score of 275.39
That score is not a typo. This is far and away the most contested, evenly matched and primetime slot stealing rivalry in the NFL. This has the second highest aggregate score on knowrivalry right after the Saints vs Falcons, but the playoff appearances and small difference inflate this rivalry’s score. If you think about it, who could argue with this being the top of the list? In the past 10 years the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens have the best rivalry in the NFL.
Divisional round game where the Ravens blew a 14 point lead at halftime
1-15-2011
Important Sunday night matchup where the Ravens stun the Steelers in Pittsburgh with a last minute touchdown pass to Torrey Smith
11-6-2011
Thanksgiving night meeting where the Steelers lost on a failed 2 point attempt
11-28-2013
Christmas night matchup where the ‘Immaculate Extension’ happened. The Steelers had no timeouts and there were 9 seconds on the clock, so if Antonio Brown’s touchdown was overturned they would’ve lost the game à la the Detroit Lions against the Falcons. The Steelers won the division because they won
12-25-2016
Big Ben has a big Sunday night game (seriously these teams always play at night because the NFL knows what’s up) as the Ravens choke a 2 score lead in the 4th quarter. This was one of four times Roethlisberger threw for over 500 yards; he holds the record for most 500 yard games.
12-10-2017
I would also like to mention 5 rivalries the NFL believes are some of the best of all-time, but ultimately failed to make the list. Perhaps they were once good rivalries, but now they are dead. The Raiders and Steelers are not that big of a deal anymore. The Cowboys and Steelers seldom play each other so that’s not that big of a deal. The Cowboys and 49ers don’t play each other in the playoffs anymore because the Cowboys don’t reach the playoffs. The Patriots and Steelers is extremely lopsided and neither team will be in Super Bowl contention for years to come. And lastly the Giants and 49ers which has been dead because the Giants never face them in the playoffs anymore.
Seriously go on knowrivalry.com and take the survey
TL;DR Giants and Eagles is overrated, and Steelers and Ravens is underrated

Mock Draft 1.0, 4 QBs go in the top 5 (Write-Ups under Picks, has trades.)

Hey everyone! This is my Mock Draft I did because I am a ridiculously bored bastard in the middle of a lull in my classes schedule. Let me know your thoughts! Trades are included in this, and the list of them can be found at the bottom.

Jaguars- Trevor Lawrence, QB

I really don’t have to explain this pick. He is far and away the most valuable pick in this draft and the Jaguars would be insane not to lock this pick in months in advance.

Jets- Justin Fields, QB

The first real decision of the draft comes from the Jets, where they decide to move on from Sam Darnold and draft an accomplished player in Justin Fields. On top of his clear physical talents and admiral skills at the QB position, the Jets choose him over Zach Wilson for culture reasons. Fields has faced high pressure situations his entire career and rebounded admirably from losing out in a QB competition, and for a team with a long history of losing he is a great piece to help turn the culture around.
3.Dolphins (Via HOU)- Penei Sewell, OT
The Dolphins can choose between getting a franchise left tackle and one of Tua’s old wide receivers, and ultimately they choose to protect their investment in a young QB. Sewell is a monster of an O-lineman and I would be shocked to see a team go with anything else, especially when the QB is one with the injury history of Tua.
4.49ers (Via ATL)- Zach Wilson, QB
The 49ers get aggressive and move up 8 slots in the draft, allowing them to select a QB who has been much more impressive than Jimmy G. He has outright said he thinks he would be a good fit in the 49ers scheme, and I expect Shannahan is thinking the same thing. The Falcons also gained extra picks to further rebuild their defense with, which is a priority for them in this mock.

Panthers (Via CIN)- Trey Lance, QB

Matt Rhule continues his rebuild of the Panthers by adding a dynamic dual threat quarterback who can eventually take the job over from Teddy Bridgewater. Trey Lance still needs to be developed as a passer, but I am confident with the weapons he would have in Carolina if he can do it anywhere it is there and Matt Rhule knows that as well.

Eagles- Devonta Smith, WR

The Eagles (and more specifically Howie Roseman) are under heavy fire from the media and fans, and are also in desperate need of help at the WR position. This leads them to picking a talented player that everyone already loves, and I suspect they will be rewarded for this decision. They get a technician to support Jalen Hurts / Carson Wentz, and if either of those guys are the answer they have to be able to get it done with a weapon as electric as Smith.

Lions- Micah Parsons, LB

Sorry Lions fans, the appropriate way to describe your needs is that you need help at every position. The Lions use this pick to go defensive BPA, which leads to them selecting Micah Parsons to be the centerpiece of their defense. Combined with Jeff Okudah, the Lions continue building a good young defensive core to support aging (and potentially traded) QB Matthew Stafford.

Bengals (Via CAR)- Christian Darrisaw, OT

Joe Burrow is going to reward the Bengals for their tank if they build around him, and starting Bobby Hart at RT is not building around him. The team selects the best OT left on the board at this point in order to try and keep their young QB upright and protect their investment in him. I also personally don’t buy the argument that the Bengals need another #1 receiver, as I believe in both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, thus passing on a better player in Ja’Marr Chase to fill a position of need.

Broncos- Patrick Surtain II, CB

The Broncos need a CB, and they go and get a proven SEC defender with a pedigree of performing against the best wideouts he faced. Surtain can be an anchor in the secondary to allow the edge rushing talents of this team to have the time needed to get home. This defense with some help could be a nightmare for opposing teams, and this furthers that goal.

Cowboys- Caleb Farley, CB

The Boys need help in the secondary, and especially considering the player they are about to pass to a division rival it makes the selection of the second best CB in the class in Caleb Farley a no brainer. This bit of aid may not fix a struggling Cowboys defense, but it will certainly help stem the bleeding.

Giants- Ja’Marr Chase, WR

The steal of the mock goes to Dave Gettleman at the 11th pick. After promising to get Daniel Jones weapons, he gets him an absolute monster of a receiver to supplement a receiving core that struggled mightily in 2020. With a monstrous deep threat in tow, Daniel Jones will have no excuse but to prove it in 2021.

Falcons- Kwity Paye, EDGE

The Falcons need help at all three levels of their defense, and they begin this retool with the draft of physical freak Kwity Paye. Paye is a bit of a developmental prospect, but the Falcons need help alongside Grady Jarrett and they find a promising young Edge Rusher in Kwity Paye to solve that.

Chargers- Rashawn Slater, OT

After Justin Herbert’s monster rookie season, one thing became quickly apparent: the Chargers needed to fix their offensive line to prevent Herbert from joining a dishonorable list of names including Joe Burrow and RGIII. They get this by getting a great OT prospect in Slater who can help solidify the line and keep a great QB upright.

Vikings- Wyatt Davis, IOL

Kirk Cousins is not a bad quarterback, but he also isn’t going to win on his own. He has a great set of weapons to showcase in Thielen, Jefferson, and Cook. Now the failure comes in that he can’t stay upright long enough to use these weapons properly. Adding a piece for Cousins to pass behind and Cook to run behind makes this offense more dynamic as a whole, and the top interior lineman comes off the board to help this issue.

Patriots- Jaylen Waddle, WR

The Patriots WR core was… bad. An already struggling WR core lost their best player in Edelman, Tom Brady, and their WR Coach in Joe Judge and the floor fell out from under an already mediocre group. They get a dynamic separator to serve as their #1, and will aim to address this issue again later on in the draft.

Cardinals- Kyle Pitts, TE

Kyler Murray is a great QB and the Cardinals have continuously invested in his success. That being said, he only has one elite target and when Hopkins can’t beat his double teams, the offense struggles. This situation is solved by obtaining a massive upgrade at TE in Kyle Pitts. This weapon can help continue to push Murray above and beyond in a powerhouse of a division.

Raiders- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB

Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and the WR corp of the Broncos all pose a brutal challenge for a defense that already is struggling mightily. They begin to rectify this by getting a versatile athlete at LB to try and right the ship. Owusu-Koramoah is not the entire answer, but he is a good bet to be an effective NFL LB, and god only knows how badly the Raiders need one of those.

Dolphins- Rashod Bateman, WR

The Dolphins have Tua Tagovailoa as their QB of the future, and now they need to tailor his weapons to what he is good at. He clearly does not trust his WRs, and for that reason the Dolphins bring in a fresh new face to try and work with the young QB. Tua has it in him, and Bateman can help him unlock the parts of his game he hasn’t yet showcased in the NFL.

Football Team- Mac Jones, QB

I’m going to level with all of you: I don’t really like Mac Jones all that much. In my opinion he has too low of a ceiling for me to like selecting him this early. That being said, the WFT has shown an ability to make game managers succeed: and I think they’ll be desperate enough for a QB that they’ll take their chances that Jones is more Alex Smith than AJ McCarron.

Bears- Samuel Cosmi, OT

The Bears are likely to lose Allen Robinson, and with that I think they need to focus on their best offensive weapon left in David Montgomery. Getting an absolute monster of a man to man at a tackle position can help possibly make the Bears an elite rushing team if they continue to build along this path.

Colts- Alex Leatherwood, OT

The retirement of Constanzo makes this pick a bit of a no-brainer. The Colts need a LT, and they get one in Leatherwood. Ballard and Reich get to keep rolling with their offense behind a prospect that I like quite a bit for them. I could also see the argument to select an Edge here, but given this franchise's history with not protecting their QB I would much rather have another O-Lineman.

Titans- Gregory Rousseau, Edge

Vrabel and the titans like physical freaks, and a freak they get in Greg Rousseau. His elite athleticism is that of a top five edge rusher, but he slips down as teams fear his floor is insanely low. The Titans roll the dice to try and save a pass rush that was out sacked by the Giants interior lineman in 2020, and gamble that this will pay off.

Jets- Jaycee Horn, CB

Lamar Jackson is an elite QB and any team would be happy to have him, Lamar Jackson on the other hand has no business starting at CB on an NFL team. The Jets rectify this issue by selecting an intriguing CB prospect in Horn. I personally don’t really know what I think of Horn quite yet, but I know he deserves to go in the first and that the Jets would be happy to have him.

Steelers- Najee Harris, RB

Najee Harris is a patient running back who is great at finding the holes in the defense who supplements that style with a great ability to contribute in the passing game. Now when have the Steelers ever utilized a back like that effectively? Joke aside, Harris is a great talent and as I think Ben gives it one more year this is the weapon they bring in to fix their struggling rushing attack.

Jaguars- Jaelan Phillips, EDGE

The Jaguars will look at how the WFT has rebuilt and try to emulate that by getting an elite edge rushing pair of their own. Enter Jaelan Phillips, one of my favorite gems of this class. He is far from a guaranteed prospect, but I love his ability as a pass rusher and when placed opposite Josh Allen I see a foundation of a playoff-caliber defense if Phillips translates to the next level.

Browns- Joseph Ossai, EDGE

The Browns will likely lose Olivier Vernon this offseason, and replacing him would be a wise move to not have that defense totally fall into disarray. Ossai has the potential to be an effective edge rusher in the NFL, and the Browns should take a chance on him in order to make sure that they can replicate the pass rush that even kind of makes that defense respectable.

Buccaneers- Christian Barmore, DL

Christian Barmore is a talented player, and he is being drafted to help fill big shoes. The Bucs pass rush is losing its top man in Shaw Barrett this offseason, and Christian Barmore can help solidify the front 7. As the first DL off the board, he can potentially help support a bucs pass rush and add another weapon to the Bucs arsenal they have effectively used to control the rushing attack of other teams.

Ravens- Rondale Moore, WR

The Ravens are… lacking at the WR position, and for that reason they select the best WR left on the board. Rondale Moore brings a good weapon for Lamar Jackson to throw to, and support the talented young QBs development as a passer.

Saints- Zaven Collins, LB

The Saints are likely to lose Drew Brees this offseason, but unfortunately I think they won’t be able to get a QB that can fully fill his shoes. So instead of trying to recapture the magic of that short passing attack they support the new QB, whoever it is, by adding a versatile defensive weapon that can make a dangerous Saints defense even more of a nightmare. His prowess as a blitzer is appealing to Payton, and I think that while Collins could bust out his athletic traits plus his versatility will draw Payton in.

Bills- Azeez Ojulari, EDGE

The Bills have a hell of an offense nowadays, but the once elite defense is in need of a little bit of support in order to reclaim what they were in 2019. This comes by trying to increase the pass rush of the team, as it allows the safeties and White to work their magic and lock down the passing game. Ojulari is not my personal favorite prospect, but he has talent and I think McDermott would be wise to take a shot on him.

Packers- Chris Olave, WR

Aaron Rodgers is coming off an MVP campaign, and that is without having a real WR2. The Packers decide to add strength to an already terrifying passing game by adding one of the best route runners in the class. He may not transform into an elite #1 option, but Olave is a great target for the Pack to try and further an already terrifyingly powerful offense.

Chiefs- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL

Alijah Vera-Tucker is a steady player that has the potential to be a contributor at the guard slot, and the projected superbowl champions struggled up the middle badly. Patrick Mahomes is everything to this franchise, and using yet another 1st round pick to protect him would be a wise decision.

Jaguars- Jalen Mayfield, OT

The Jaguars learn from the Bengals mistakes and immediately make moves to shore up a mediocre O-Line that could get their new franchise QB seriously injured. They do this by bringing in a solid OT prospect to try and offer Lawrence protection from good edge rushers. While not a perfect OT prospect, Mayfield is a slam-dunk pick for a team looking to protect their new QB.

Jets- Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR

I LOVE Amon-Ra. He will be a steal in this draft, and only to meet rule #1 will I qualify that he does still have some bust potential. By drafting St. Brown, the new QB on the block in Fields for the Jets gets a weapon to grow with. This strategy has worked in recent years (Burrow-Higgins, Jones-Slayton), and the Jets bring in a great weapon to try and replicate this strategy.

Falcons- Dylan Moses, LB

As I said earlier, the Falcons need help at every level of their defense. That being said, with Deion Jones already in the linebacking corp they can afford to make a risky decision and draft a dominant athlete who has unfortunately underperformed in his last season in college. This pick is a high risk / high reward decision, but the Falcons need to roll the dice if they want to be relevant again any time soon.

Dolphins- Travis Etienne, RB

The Dolphins continue to commit to rebuilding their team to fit the skillset of Tua Tagovailoa, and part of that plan includes obtaining a much better running game than the one they currently have. Etienne isn’t a perfect prospect, but what he brings is a pedigree of success to the Dolphins that would certainly be appealing to Flores. Etienne, Sewell, and Bateman could bring a spark to an offense that desperately needs one.

Eagles- Nick Bolton, LB

The Eagles are bad, but the Linebacking corp needs extra attention. For this reason they take the best Linebacker left on the board in Nick Bolton. He won’t solve all of this defenses problems as they are likely to lose their best player in Brandon Graham, but maybe he can stem the bleeding of a mediocre defense that is only getting worse.

Bengals- Terrace Marshall Jr., WR

While earlier I said I didn’t believe the Bengals needed an elite #1 wideout, they can definitely afford to go and get another decent one. This is where Marshall Jr. comes in, the big man is a college teammate of Joe Burrow’s, and could be a contributor in the red zone. While I personally don’t expect him to be the best WR in this class, his size makes him someone you can’t take your eyes off of, which helps the already great other members of the Bengals skill positions.

Bengals (Via ATL)- Creed Humphrey, IOL

The Bengals continue to rebuild the O-Line to protect their investment in Joe Burrow by adding a good interior lineman to shore up a weak point on the team. Humphrey is also a big man and can contribute heavily to the rushing attack leveled by Gio Bernard and Joe Mixon. This may not be the sexiest draft for the Bengals, but they do what they have to do to maximize their investment in Joe Burrow.

Broncos- Daviyon Nixon, DL

The Broncos continue to invest in their defense by adding an interior DL that can work alongside Chubb, Miller, and Casey to create an absolute monster of a pass rush. Nixon is not a slam dunk pick, especially because the Broncos are drafting to add to an existing strength of theirs, but if they want to survive vs. the Elite deep passers in the AFCW, they need to be able to get to the QB quickly. For that basic reason, they invest heavily in their defense in the early round of this draft.

Lions- Kyle Trask, QB

If not this offseason, then sometime soon Matthew Stafford’s time in Detroit is coming to an end. The Lions get another QB through the door to backup the aging Stafford for the short term while he develops into hopefully the franchise guy in Detroit. Lord only knows they need one after the only thing keeping that team from drowning in Stafford is gone.

Patriots (Via NYG)- Pat Friermuth, TE

Bill Bellichek loves his tight ends, and this time he pulls off a trade with the Giants to leapfrog them and Jaguars to select the player aptly dubbed “Baby Gronk”. Friermuth is not a perfect prospect, some injury concerns are present, but his talents are impressive in every phase of the game and the Patriots should kill to have a weapon like this. The Giants do this to supplement a move they make later on in this mock.

Falcons (Via SF)- Trevon Moehrig-Woodard, S

For one last time, the Falcons need help at every level of the defense and this time they get a safety to work the secondary of this defense. Moehrig is an impressive player to me, and I think he has a chance to outperform his draft stock and be an anchor for a struggling Falcons secondary.

Cowboys- Jay Tufele, DL

The Cowboys are egregious up the middle of their defense. It is an absolute embarrassment to watch, and for that reason they make a pick that is far from sexy in selecting Tufele. Tufele is a talented player who I believe could help remove the sad reality that RBs were able to rush all over the Cowboys defensive line for much of the year. This pick is not the sexy kind that Jerry Jones loves to make, but he needs to bite the bullet and select someone to help their struggling run defense.

Jaguars- Eric Stokes, CB

The Jaguars miss Jalen Ramsey patrolling their secondary, but now they need to replace him with a new set of DBs that can support the rebuilt edge rush of this defense. This is where Eric Stokes comes in, an SEC proven defender which may appeal to a team that needs help in the secondary.

Giants (Via NE)- Jayson Oweh, EDGE

The G-Men thank their lucky stars and select the second player of their draft that has slipped down the draft board in Jayson Oweh. The pass rusher benefited in the past from working alongside Micah Parsons, but his talents stood out in their own right this year on an otherwise disappointing Penn State defense without Micah Parsons. While I personally favor Basham as a pass rusher, Oweh is a great fit for the giants 3-4 disguise scheme and New York is lucky to have him more often than not.

Chargers- Carlos Basham Jr., EDGE

An underrated part of what made the Browns good this year was their ability to jar the ball loose and force turnovers, allowing the offense to run the score up with an otherwise mediocre defense. With Melvin Ingram likely gone, the Chargers aim to replicate the Browns in that way and select Basham Jr. The Edge Rusher out of Wake Forest is an intriguing process, but to me his ability to force fumbles is a significant boon that should draw in the Chargers and their high power offense that scores more often than not when they have the ball. Turnovers win games, and the Chargers draft Basham for his ability to force them coming off the edge opposite Bosa.

Raiders- Shaun Wade, CB

The Raiders take a chance on Shaun Wade who has regressed in a major way when he was pushed to the outside on the Buckeye defense this year. He still has the desirable physical traits, including the size and speed to bully slot receivers around the league and be effective in zone coverage against large receivers and TEs. He is a developmental prospect, but at his best he is a high-end talent, and the Raiders defense desperately needs one of those.

Cardinals- Patrick Jones II, EDGE

The Cardinals defense has a great pass rusher in Chandler Jones, but he went down this year and the team suffered for it. While Haason Reddick stepped up for them, he is headed for free agency. The Cardinals bring in a good edge rusher in Patrick Jones out of Pitt to try and make sure that the pass rushing burden doesn’t fully fall on one person like it has the past two years under Kingsbury. If Jones pans out, the Cards may be able to dominate the difficult NFCW and that is why they’ll try to beef up their pass rush.

Dolphins- Trey Smith, IOL

In case you haven’t figured it out by now, I like the idea of rebuilding the Dolphins offense to match the already good defense they have built. They bring in Trey Smith to compete for an IOL job which he will likely win to form a young core of Smith and Sewell on that O-Line. The idea of this draft being to give Tua a new weapon and a good run game to lean on, and if he can’t make the most of it then the next QB will have a great situation to walk into.

Football Team- Kadarius Toney, WR

One of my favorite prospects goes to one of my least favorite teams. As a Giants fan living in DC, I would be absolutely crushed if this happens but ultimately I think it makes too much sense. Toney is a great weapon in terms of breaking tackles, joining an already slippery Washington offense built around Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin for Mac Jones to pilot. While he is far from a complete player, Toney is a fun weapon that I believe Meshes well with Mac Jones and what Rivera is trying to build in Washington, and for that reason he is a great pick at 51st overall in the draft.

Bears- Walker Little, OT

The Bears draft another monster OT to work opposite of Cosmi. Walker Little can support the plan I have proposed for the Bears draft to try and become a good rushing attack, and he can become an NFL caliber pass blocker in my opinion. The Bears need a new direction, and being a team that punches people in the mouth in the trenches is one that they can certainly achieve with these two picks.

Titans- Marvin Wilson, DL

The Titans need a lot of help rushing the passer, and they take another pass rusher who has shown flashes of being a great NFL caliber talent. Wilson at the interior position for the Seminoles shows pass rushing talent, but his floors have been unfortunately low. The hope for the Titans is that he and Rousseau can develop into a great interior / exterior edge rushing tandem that may save a struggling pass rush on an otherwise playoff caliber team.

Colts- Joe Tryon, EDGE

The Colts are, in my opinion, one of the best coached teams in the NFL, and they know that as well. For this reason they take an intriguing project edge rusher in Joe Tryon. He has nearly every physical trait you look for in an elite NFL pass rusher, while also having very few of the desired techniques of one. The Colts take a risk and pick him, trusting that over the next few years they can unlock his potential.

Steelers- Liam Eichenberg, OT

The starting OT of the Steelers in Zach Banner ultimately went down with a season ending injury early in the 2020 season while the rest of the O-Line only gets older, and for this reason they inject a rookie into the group. Eichenberg is a promising prospect, and I believe that the Steelers are a good place to utilize his talents.

Seahawks- Josh Myers, IOL

Not my favorite pick of the draft, but the Steelers need help up the middle of the trenches and if they intend to commit to running the ball more they need it double. Myers is reached for a bit in order to supplement this need, and his help both in the run game and passing attack will surely be appreciated by Seahawks HC Pete Caroll.

Giants (Via LAR)- Brevin Jordan, TE

Using their third round pick and some of the assets acquired from the patriots trade the Giants move back up into the first round to select a TE of their own. The Rams need to recoup picks from their litany of trades over the past few years, and they gain more mid round picks to supply depth to their otherwise top-heavy team. The Giants take a complete TE in Brevin Jordan, drawn in by the fact that he won’t be a liability in every way the same way Evan Engram was. At the very least, he likely won’t cause three separate interceptions by volleyball setting the ball into the air for the defense to catch.

Buccaneers- Jevon Holland, S

The Bucs were exposed this year when Tyreek Hill dropped 200 yards on them in a half, and as more speedster wideouts enter the league they may want to fortify the help they afford their CBs over the top. In comes Jevon Holland, a player who is just solid, I don’t view him as particularly elite but he is almost certainly going to be a good role player for the Bucs. The Bucs have their defensive playmakers in the front 7, now they just need the help up over top to let the guys up front do their work.

Ravens- Quincy Roche, EDGE

The Ravens are likely to lose Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue this offseason, and they try to solve this issue by reaching for the Miami product to support their weak edge group. It is just a solid, respectable pick to make.

Browns- Chazz Surrat, LB

The Browns need some help in the back 7, but a lot of it for the secondary will come off IR. This means another linebacker could help improve this defense, and for that reason they select the best LB left on the board in Chazz Surrat.

Saints- Levi Onwuzerike, DL

The Saints defensive leader in Cameron Jordan is only getting older, and now is the time to start finding him help and eventually, his replacement on that DL. This is where the talented Onwuzerike is drafted, as he is a flawed prospect that can learn from Jordan and eventually grow into the role of the alpha on this defensive front.

Bills- Tyson Campbell, CB

The Josh Norman experiment was… passable for the Buffalo Bills. That being said he is 33 and that secondary is already very expensive. With a pricy Josh Allen extension on the horizon, getting a good cheap CB is a smart idea for the Bills. This is why they use their second round pick to select Tyson Campbell.

Packers- Jalen Twyman, DL

It is no secret at this point that the Packers weakness is their run defense. By adding another player onto the interior defensive line they can begin to get their feet under them. This is the reason they select the Pitt product to develop and bulk up next to Kenny Clark.

Chiefs- Asante Samuel Jr., CB

The Chiefs offense is… expensive to maintain. For this reason the secondary is a bit of a revolving door for this team. With most of their starting CBs leaving this offseason, they could use a young controllable piece to develop in Spags defense. Enter Asante Samuel Jr., who gets picked to fill just that role.
Trades:

Pick 4 for Pick 12, 43, and future assets (Falcons and 49ers)
Pick 5 for Pick 8, 39, and future assets (Bengals and Panthers)
Pick 57 for 3rd Round Pick + future assets (Rams and Giants)
Pick 43 for pick 46 and future assets (Giants and Patriots)

Thanks for reading! Please leave your thoughts/criticisms below. I would love to talk about them!

Official r/NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

Welcome to the week 11 Official NFL Power Rankings! It was an eventful weekend, all that fans (of most teams) could reasonably ask for. Whose top 15 are upside down? Is any team more PFF than substance? Happy 2 million, Discuss! 31/32 reporting

#	Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.	Steelers	+1	10-0	Going into Thanksgiving after a solid win against the hopeless Jaguars, if the Steelers win vs the Ravens, they're in. That's right, if they beat Baltimore, the Steelers clinch a playoff spot by Week 11. Meanwhile, the Ravens know their back is against the wall after losing a tough one against the Titans and being outside of the cutoff line for the postseason. A loss against the Steelers takes their playoff odds down to 50-50, while a hot Browns team beating the same reeling Jaguars team brings their playoff chances to 75%. Expect the Ravens take their frustrations out on the Steelers in what will be both teams biggest test this season. The Ravens are desperate now and that makes them even more dangerous. Even more dangerous if they have the beerbug. If the game is postponed, disregard all of this.
2.	Chiefs	-1	9-1	The Chiefs have some soul searching to do on defense after another abysmal performance against the Raiders. Unlike the first matchup against the Raiders, the Chiefs offense was able to bail out poor performances from the defense and special teams this time thanks to the usual suspects on offense. Travis Kelce continued his otherworldly year. Tyreek Hill was as great as always. Patrick Mahomes made a game-winning drive with only 1:43 look way too easy. Even if the Chiefs defense has off days the Chiefs are always going to be competitive due to those 3 guys. They might have to lean on them, even more, when the Chiefs go to Tampa Bay next week.
3.	Saints	+1	8-2
4.	Rams	+6	7-3	Jordan Fuller is the superior 199th pick.
5.	Packers	-2	7-3	"MVS giveth, MVS taketh away"
6.	Colts	+7	7-3	The Colts drive to close the game after stopping the Packers on a late 4th and 1 was the most poorly executed drive this ranker has ever seen. It's a testament to this team's heart and talent that they still pulled out a W after that debacle. Sunday's game was one of the biggest in recent Indy football and the Colts look to surge into the back stretch of the season.
7.	Seahawks	+5	7-3	The Seahawks defense won the game on a Carlos Dunlap sack on a three man rush against Kyler Murray. This team is provocative.... gets the people goin. And the fans are here for it (RIP blood pressure). A long break between Thursday night and the game Monday night should mean the returns of Chris Carson, Shaquil Griffin, and Ethan Pocic. After a bit of a slump, the Seahawks next 4 opponents consist of the NFC East (minus the Cowboys) and the Jets. It's all comin' together, baby.
8.	Bills	--	7-3	The Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets all lost this week, which is about as good of a bye week as the Bills can ask for. This has been a very weird season with a lot of flukey wins and losses. Despite losing to them (and getting their teeth kicked in by one), it’s hard to say the Bills are objectively worse than Arizona or Tennessee. A Hail Mary ended one, and there was a whole string of strange, confusing events leading up to the other that made it a tough game to prepare for. This isn’t to say Buffalo didn’t deserve these losses, but in such an up-and-down year around the whole league, 7-3 feels pretty damn good. Now, it’s time to make the final push for the division.
9.	Buccaneers	-4	7-4	He was excessively loyal to his coordinators. No matter their follies, no matter the incompetence on full display, and no matter the need for change, he insisted they continue in their duties. He refused to step in to call plays until it was too late, and by that point, the writing was already on the wall for his job. This of course references former Buccaneers Head Coach Dirk Koetter. The parallels are there in the present, and after last night's Rams game (which included a rollout from Tom Cement Shoes Brady), OC Byron Leftwich has little confidence from Bucs fans. They better wake up, because Patrick Mahomes is next.
10.	Titans	+4	7-3	The Titans were able to once again slow the Ravens offense enough to keep pace through the first three quarters and set up an eleven-point fourth quarter to take the game to overtime. In overtime, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to score a second walk off touchdown in the same season.
11.	Ravens	-5	6-4	This ranker would opt to write a blurb, but Greg Roman forced him to write a message to Hollywood instead. Can the Steelers be beaten without a DL? What about with two running backs on the COVID list? Asking for a friend.
12.	Cardinals	-5	6-4	Leading the league in penalties (now 9 more than the next most penalized team) was bound to factor into a loss at some point. The offensive line also had their worst game of the season as Seattle's pass defense looked elite. Hopefully the teak used the extended time to work on some things and Murray's shoulder had enough time to heal. Sunday's game against the up and down Patriots will be absolutely critical.
13.	Raiders	--	6-4	Bad officiating, bad defense, and scoring 30+ points and losing. Sunday night was exactly what you expect when you watch a Raiders game. The bright side for Raiders fans, they dominated KC on the road and barely scraped out a win after coming off a bye in Vegas. The Raiders can beat any team in the league, unfortunately their defense makes it so any team can beat them as well.
14.	Browns	+1	7-3	The Browns are just two wins away from the first winning season since 2007 and third winning season in TWENTY YEARS. The Browns will face the struggling Jaguars next week.
15.	Dolphins	-6	6-4	After a few weeks of glorious hope, Dolphins fans are welcomed back to the standard mood. Though the team's future still looks bright, this game was a hard reminder that the team is not yet all the way complete, and still has some glaring holes. Now the Dolphins travel to the winless Jets to see if they pull off the easy win, or if the long history of odd games in this rivalry continues.
16.	Bears	+2	5-5	The bye week featured the most watchable performance from the Bears' offense all season.
17.	Panthers	+3	4-7	The first shutout in five years was exactly what P.J. "Matty Ice" Walker and his two end zone interceptions needed. Even if this game was somehow closer than the end result, the defense really stepped up. A perfect 52 yard bomb to DJ Moore deserves specific recognition, as well as Brian Burns' overall game film.
18.	49ers	+1	4-6	Bye Week- Hopefully it allows enough time to get players off the Covid list.
19.	Vikings	-3	4-6	Dalvin Cook leads the league in rushing touchdowns, Adam Thielen leads the league in receiving touchdowns, Justin Jefferson is on pace to break Randy Moss's rookie receiving record, Kirk Cousins ranks 6th in PFF grade... and yet none of it matters because half of the Vikings' defense is on IR.
20.	Patriots	-3	4-6	Pass protection and defensive secondary struggled. Run game disappeared in the second half. lost Rex. Not Good!
21.	Broncos	+4	4-6	Tua learned a very important lesson on Sunday. No matter how good your team is, no matter how hapless the Broncos appear to be, the power of Mile High bullshit will break you. Despite having an awful start after game after game of awful offensive play, the Broncos strung together just enough yardage to complement an amazing defensive performance to squeak out a win. Ultimately meaningless except for one point — Vic Fangio has now won as many games as Vance Joseph.
22.	Chargers	+1	3-7	This game had all of the hallmarks of Chargers football: inconsistent and mistake-prone offense, a defense that only lasts 30 minutes, and incompetent special teams play. However, the Chargers hung on to win the game, probably because the other team was the Jets. Keenan Allen had a career day, as his 16 receptions in a game is a franchise record. The Herbert-Allen connection continues to grow stronger and will hopefully be a focal point of the offense for years to come. The Chargers will don the navy unis again in a cross-country tilt against the Bills next week.
23.	Falcons	-1	3-7	Thank you @Saints for the opportunity to realize a top ten draft/pick. And thank you to the fans and the city of Atlanta for putting up with the Falcons...
24.	Texans	+4	3-7	Every win against the Pats feels like a gift, even when they're as garbage as they are this year. Seeing Bill Belichick scowl at his team's loss never fails to brighten the spirits of all other football fans.
25.	Lions	-4	4-6	The offense was actually terrible. This Lions team is a shell of the offensive strength it had last year. After being shut out by an XFL QB, Patricia's seat must be scorching. Technically still in the playoff hunt, but unless the Lions blowout the Texans on thanksgiving.... don't count on it.
26.	Giants	+1	3-7	If you're going to have a Covid outbreak you might as well do it on your bye week. Here's hoping everyone makes a quick recovery and limits the spread to family members. The NFC East now has an entire division of 3-win teams, which means this dumpster fire of a division is more up for grabs than it's been all year. Big Blue heads to Cincinnati to take on the Burrow-less Bengals next.
27.	Washington FT	+2	3-7	And here we are. Come Thanksgiving, The Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys will battle it out for 1st place in the NFC LEAST. The winner standing tall at checks notes 4-7... This division is a toss up and we're really looking at a 5-11 or 6-10 team hosting a wildcard playoff game.
28.	Eagles	-2	3-6-1	Real talk. Carson Wentz is among the worst, if not the absolute worst, starting quarterback currently in the NFL. Doug Pederson's magic from the 2017 season is dead and buried in a 50 foot deep hole in the Vet graveyard. Jason Peters is the worst overall player in the entire league. It is time for Doug to give up playcalling to someone with an iota of common sense. It is time to bench Wentz in favor of Jalen Hurts, if only to keep Wentz healthy for next season. It is time for Eagles' fans to accept the fact that being 1st in a division while 3-6-1 is not a "positive takeaway."
29.	Cowboys	+1	3-7	Winners? For the first time in a while, Cowboys fans feel hope.
30.	Bengals	-6	2-7-1	The Bengals were never going to make the playoffs in 2020, they only had one goal for a successful season, keep Joe Burrow healthy. The front office and coaching staff failed to do that. Because Mike Brown won't step down or move aside, the changes need to start with Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin, Head Coach Zac Taylor, Offensive Coordinator Brian Callahan, and offensive line coach Jim Turner. All four have contributed towards the catastrophic failure that is the Bengals in 2020 and need to be let go. For the remainder of the season the only goal is to land a top three pick and draft Penei Sewell.
31.	Jaguars	--	1-9	It was not a trap game. It was, however, Shad Khan's 100th loss since buying the Jaguars. That doesn't count for much, but... no. No it's all just terrible. Send help.
32.	Jets	--	0-10	The Jets have become the first team to be eliminated from playoff contention, considerably hurting their chances at making the playoffs.

Official r/NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

Welcome to the week 10 Official NFL Power Rankings! By this point last season there were nine teams with a 6-3 or better record. At the same point in 2020? 15 teams. Which actually belong? 32/32 reporting

#	Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.	Chiefs	--	8-1	Chiefs are coming off the bye week headed to Las Vegas looking to avenge the early season loss to the Raiders. There are already a lot of narratives going into this game, with buses being at the center of them, but both teams are going to be motivated under the Sunday Night lights. The Chiefs/Raiders rivalry is back.
2.	Steelers	--	9-0	A solid game against the Bengals. No traps. No underperforming. Just the kind of effort, result, and final score you'd expect to see out of a 9-0 team. That said, this upcoming week is critical because Jacksonville always seems to have Pittsburgh's number and the Jags were surprisingly persistent against a very good Packers team. It's often said teams "look ahead", and the Ravens game on Thanksgiving comes on a short week, just 9 days from now. The Steelers need to simply worry about repeating Sunday's performance so they can get through the old rivalry of the unpredictable Jaguars. To reach 10-0 and face the Ravens, who would love nothing more than deny the Steelers an 11-0 record, has to be the current objective. Jacksonville have showed they can play.
3.	Packers	+2	7-2	The Jags punched the Packers in the mouth but Aaron & Co were able to pull out the victory. A late-McCarthy era team might have sputtered the whole game and lost, but this week both sides of the ball buckled down, figured out what worked and what didn't, and got a win. Run defense is still a concern even with getting Christian Kirksey back, and Tae might be injured once again. Still, a win is a win and onto the Colts.
4.	Saints	--	7-2	The Saints continued their winning ways with a slow chokehold on an under strength 49ers team, but come out of the game with one major worry. The hopes of the season now rest on the shoulders of Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill unless Sean Payton can channel Ge Hong to resurrect Brees. Luckily for the Saints the next four games all feature 3-win teams. Jameis gets the chance to prove himself and find him as beloved by the fanbase as Teddy, or collapse the season and be cast out forever.
5.	Buccaneers	+4	7-3	Nothing like a 544 yard, 46 point outing over a division rival to get a team's confidence back on track, and with the absence of Drew Brees, the Bucs reentered the running for the NFC South. Sitting at a cool 7-3, Tampa Bay has the toughest stretch of schedule ahead with the Rams coming up on MNF followed by the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs. With a wild card appearance looking like the worst case scenario, Bucs fans will be able to breathe a sigh of relief for making the playoffs for the first time in 13 years.
6.	Ravens	-3	6-3	With a depleted receiving corps and a depleted DL... The Ravens will be fiiiiiiiiiine against Derrick Henry, now that they don't have Earl Thomas blocking for him.
7.	Cardinals	+4	6-3	Those are the plays you dreamed might be possible after the Cardinals acquired Hopkins in March. Thank you Bill O'Brien! As big as that finish was, it's imperative the team shows up against Seattle on a short week to compete for the division lead. Can't have a letdown game after all that work.
8.	Bills	-2	7-3	In typical Buffalo fashion, the Bills built up their fan’s hopes and dashed them. Then they rebuilt those hopes. Then within a minute Deandre Hopkins re-dashed them. Sometimes you’re just not supposed to win a football game. The football gods decided Sunday was one of those days for the Bills. 7-3 heading into the bye. BillsMafia will take it.
9.	Dolphins	+1	6-3	The talk before this game was that Justin Herbert would likely do well against the Dolphins tendency to blitz heavy and often, yet the Dolphins defense showed that they're going to dictate the terms of the matchup, and Herbert is just another victim of the innovative pass rush and smothering secondary that Brian Flores has built in Miami. Special mention must go to the special teams as, despite Jason Sanders finally missing his first field goal after a franchise record 22 straight, the Dolphins again demonstrated why they're one of the best special teams units in the league, with great performances in all aspects of their game.
10.	Rams	+4	6-3	That's yet another dominant defensive performance, and the Rams have now allowed just 9 points during the second half in the last five games combined. As long as the offense puts together a reasonably competent performance, the Rams have a shot at anyone.
11.	Colts	+2	6-3	The transition from ex-GM Ryan Grigson to current GM Chris Ballard has paid huge dividends for the Colts. This Colts roster, top to bottom, has as much talent as any during the team's tenure in Indy. The team can count on its squads in all three phases of the game, with a huge blocked punt turning the Tennessee contest on its head. If the offense can maintain some consistency, this team should be a force come January.
12.	Seahawks	-5	6-3	Where to start..... Russ isn't the MVP front runner. Pete would rather trust this defense then go for it on 4th and an inch. But hey, at least we've got a historic defense goin for us. The loss to the Rams was the second straight ugly defeat for the Seahawks, dropping them to 3rd in the NFC West. Thursday's game against the Cardinals isn't a must-win, per se..... but Seattle needs to get right fast.
13.	Raiders	-1	6-3	The Raiders absolutely dominated the Broncos. Week 11, on the other hand, will be tough. Once again the NFL gives the Chiefs a game against the Raiders after a KC bye week. Since 2010 the Chiefs will have played an AFC west opponent 9 times following a KC bye week (6 of those 9 times it has been the Raiders). In that same time span they have played against an AFC west opponent only 3 times following their bye week (0x Raiders, 2x Broncos, 1x Chargers). The Raiders not only have to beat one of the best teams in the league this week, but also one of the most unfair scheduling biases of the past 10 years.
14.	Titans	-6	6-3	The Titans now hold a 2-9 record against Phillip Rivers and are 5-20 against the Colts since 2008. The good start to the year for the Titans is in serious jeopardy as they are on a 1-3 streak since their 5-0 start and the next 3 games for the Titans are all against 6-3 teams.
15.	Browns	--	6-3	Nick Chubb, back from injury, ran it out at the 1 to ice the win. Smart move. Ok, so now that is out of the way, Steelers should be #1. Who are we kidding here? KC still hanging around at the top? The were on a BYE. I say this as a Browns ranker: How have the Steelers, who are on a 9-0 terror, not been ranked 1 for so long?!
16.	Vikings	+2	4-5	Mike Zimmer's ability to take a bunch of rookies, 7th rounders and street free agents and hold any offense to 3.0 yards per play is incredible. Meanwhile, Justin Jefferson leads the league in yards per route run and is making DBs look silly week after week.
17.	Patriots	+8	4-5	Bad weather, good rush defense, solid rush offense - what more can you ask for? The Patriots' season remains alive
18.	Bears	-2	5-5	"So I was watching game tape today and I realized, ever since I started playing, every single week of my play has been worse than the week before it. So that means every single week you see me, that's on the worst week of my life." -The entire Chicago Bears offense.
19.	49ers	-2	4-6	The 49ers took an early lead vs the saints, but that lead vanished as eventually the talent disparity won out. It is a testament to the coaching staff and Shanahan's ability to get players to buy in that the team is continuing to battle every week with so many injuries to key players.
20.	Panthers	-1	3-7	Bless the knees. Teddy made it, even if the Panthers' wheels fell off. From ill-timed interceptions to a rush defense giving up the length of the field at a time, mistakes were made in many phases to a strong divisional rival. A more winnable home game against Detroit lies ahead.
21.	Lions	+5	4-5	A W is a W. Without Kenny Golladay on the field, the Lions were still able to put points on the board in the first half. Unfortunately the offense stagnated, and the defense played down to their opponent. Maybe the game script wanted another clutch Matthew Stafford walk off W? No, the true clutch captain Matt Prater sunk a 59 yard chip for the win. This W belongs to the Lions... and Chase Young.
22.	Falcons	-1	3-6	Raheem better be using this bye week efficiently. With remaining games against Kansas City, Oakland, Tampa (2x), New Orleans (2x), there won't be room for errors Atlanta is known so well for.
23.	Chargers	-3	2-7	Something about Hard Rock Stadium just brings bad tidings to the Chargers. This was the worst loss of the season, and it's very telling to lose to a team in the middle of a rebuild. The Chargers are a better team on paper, but that doesn't matter if the other team just needs to execute for 60 minutes in order to win. Kudos to Brian Flores and the Dolphins, they're moving in the right direction. The same cannot be said for the Chargers. The Jets are not the easy win that they should be when they come to town next week, and Tom Telesco gets ever closer to working with another top 5 pick.
24.	Bengals	--	2-6-1	It was refreshing to have a Bengals vs. Steelers game without the extra stuff that has been going on the last few years. Well, except for Bud Dupree's late hit on Joe Burrow, a hit that threw him into the bench and clearly hampered Burrow's mobility the remainder of the game. It's okay, at least Bengals fans didn't have to listen to Jonathan Vilma claim Joe Burrow can't read a defense for the remainder of the game.
25.	Broncos	-2	3-6	A certain Tomas Kalnoky song comes to mind after Drew Lock's performance on Sunday. The World of Suck goes on and on. From Andrew Mason, the Broncos have had the worst passer rating and TD:INT ratio in the league since 2017. With no end in sight, it appears all-too-likely the Broncos will be hoping back on the QB Carousel for another go-round.
26.	Eagles	-4	3-5-1	Scenario: your team scores a touchdown to make it 17-21 before the extra point, which would bring you within a field goal of a tie game, what would you do? If you answered “get sacked for -7 yards on a failed 2 point conversion” you might be the next head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles!
27.	Giants	+1	3-7	The Giants played good football in all 3 phases of the game on Sunday, which is not a sentence I've been able to utter for a long, long time. Daniel Jones put on a clinic in what was arguably the best game of his young career. James Bradberry deserves all the money we threw at him and then some. Graham Gano and Riley Dixon have magical legs. But by far the most vast improvement in play from early in the season appears to be the Offensive Line. From getting Saquon hit 2-3 yards in the backfield every play to moving guys down the field at will and giving Danny Dimes a clean pocket all afternoon, they've become one of the better units on this team as a whole. All in all, a win heading into the bye week is made that much sweeter by the fact that we finally beat the damn Eagles.
28.	Texans	-1	2-7	big mood
29.	Washington FT	--		Absolutely clutch performance by Chase Young who put the team on his back, committed a boneheaded 15 yard penalty with about 6 seconds left to put The Lions in last second winning field goal range. This team and this culture is committed to losing and time after time they just find a way when the chips are up and all the momentum is on their side.
30.	Cowboys	--	2-7	Despite some worries, the Cowboys made it through the bye week unscathed. The way this year has gone, that counts as a win (but not for determining draft order or the division title).
31.	Jaguars	--	1-8	The Jaguars will not go quietly into the offseason. Putting up a big fuss against the Packers proved futile. However, there does appear to be enough raw talent on the team that it's unlikely the Jaguars lose every game the rest of the season. While still frustrating to watch, the team does have it's moments, like field-length PRTDs. Remember kids, don't out-kick your coverage!
32.	Jets	--	0-9	Once again, the Jets failed to do anything at all this week.

Here's an in-depth breakdown of Super Bowl LV:

https://preview.redd.it/xm2rmxgccif61.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=727ec6ddc09f8e0ebc58dfbb4bfe5a6e702fff49

We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others.
As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen.
Let’s dive into it!

Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:

The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field.

https://preview.redd.it/ydhdh09bbif61.png?width=751&format=png&auto=webp&s=2130b984b7228140b0a17d05759752e7a8a09a87

It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system.

https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/5o8inlufbif61/player

Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes.

For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon.

https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/kab5kwvkbif61/player

Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.

Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:

As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts.

https://preview.redd.it/ymqekb5nbif61.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61bc935642ddc713da5a866d8bc8fea123ea1dbf

When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line.

https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/eopgbempbif61/player

While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce.

I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department.

https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/meu60dlrbif61/player

Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.

Examining the first matchup:

Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory.
While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met:

When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back.

https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/8b7dchqzbif61/player

Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.

What each team can take away:

A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be:

For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes.
Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher.

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On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money.
When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.

X-factors:

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Buccaneers – Aaron Stinnie & Jamel Dean

I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for.
As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday.

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Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill

I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion.
Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.

Prediction:

On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves.
Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck.

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Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28

So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City.

If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece!
Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!

ravens vs rams pick ats video

Ravens vs. Rams Prediction ATS 11/25/19 The Rams will be facing not only a team that can provide prolific offense but will also be taking on a tough defense, to boot. But this is really an all-or-nothing spot for the Rams. Baltimore Ravens (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) Monday, November 25 at 8:15 PM ET (ESPN), Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Free NFL Pick: Rams +3.5 (-115) at Bovada The ... The over/under has been set at 49. The Ravens are 8-2-0 ATS and 6-4-0 when betting on the total. The Rams are 3-7-0 when wagering on the over/under and 6-4-0 against the spread. While it is a matchup of winning teams, it feels like these two squads are heading in different directions. The Ravens (5-5) ATS and Rams (7-3) ATS opened as a pick but the Ravens have been bet up to -3. Don’t be surprised if they climb higher by next Monday. Ravens vs Rams Odds The Baltimore Ravens (8-2) face the Los Angeles Rams (6-4) under the lights of Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Rams are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive, while Baltimore looks to move one step closer to clinching an AFC North title. We analyze the Ravens-Rams odds and lines, with NFL Week 12 betting picks and tips for the matchup. The Ravens score touchdowns on 65% of the time they get into the red zone while the Rams score on just 60%. Defensively, LA is allowing touchdowns on 58% of their opponent red zone chance compared to Baltimore, allowing touchdowns on only 48%. Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in last 8 road games; Ravens are 10-2 SU in last 12 games as favorites; Rams are 0-4 ATS in last four games as home underdogs; Rams are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games

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Baltimore Ravens vs. LA Rams Free Picks and Predictions 11 ...

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