I gotta say, I see some good shit out there. I see new members trying to diversify their positions and learn about other stocks and other ways to make money. This is the path my fellow retards. I'm a nobody here, but I have good returns and some good insight. When I came to WSB, multiple people helped me figure out what the fuck I was doing, because I knew jack shit. I care more about my money than yours, but no retard should be left in the dark alone. So let me pass on a couple things. I can't prove shit to you, so read this or don't.
I mainly trade options (Calls and Puts), so that is what I will discuss
Generally the most insane gains will come from being in a specific stock and not an ETF or Index. While riskier, this is where you can hit the homeruns. So decide if you want to go for conservative gains or if you want those huge swings. While what I said is true, I am usually against putting everything into a single bet. Anything can go wrong at any time and no play is 100% guaranteed. The goal of this game is to stay alive. You will lose money on a play at some point, because it is inevitable. So never let yourself get wiped out, because you can always build yourself back up. This goes along with one of my other recommendations: always have SOME cash ready to go. You never know when there might be an incredible opportunity and you do not want to get caught with your ass hanging out.
Paper hands and diamond hands are just words. You ultimately decide when you want to sell or hold and how much profit you want to take. One of my favorite strategies is to say, buy an even number of options on a play, sell half at a modest level of gains (like enough to break even or gain a little bit) and then let the rest ride longer. Look guys, on many plays, you either paper hands at some point or diamond hands long enough to see your positions go red. Some people will bail at 40% gains and others might not take anything less than 500%. Just know that chasing endless profits ups the risk factor, so YOU decide when it's time. Having a target share price for the stock is also a good strategy.
Here's a couple psychological principles in investing. Studies have found that people tend to hold onto losing positions too long and sell winning positions too early. They let their losers lose and cut off their winners short. Apparently most people hate losing more than they like winning. Think about this before you sell. Stocks can often get hot and run multiple days in a row. Sometimes a stock will have one red day and then keep up going. This is why it's important to know WHY you got into a position. Trust your DD and stick to the plan. I had ideas for plays where they went red right away and I bailed... only to see them moon. "Diamond Hands" means that you don't dump your position instantly if it goes down. The hardest thing is knowing if you should cut losses or diamond hands. I'm a retard and we're in a bull market.. so often times the stock will eventually go up. Your call though.
The market makers and big boys want you to lose. They want your money. I'm not going to dive into the realm of possible illegal activities that they may use, but just point out some simpler tactics they will use. Big money often sees retail as "weak hands" aka Buy High and Sell Low. They know FOMO is strong when a stock is going up big and that fear takes over when a stock divebombs. We're in a bull market, which means stonks only go up. However, we still have negative days. Stocks sell off sometimes and things can look bad. Generally, the dip is not time to sell, but instead, time to buy. Case and point, we had a pretty big drilling 2 weeks ago. Do you know what the big money did? They bought the fuckin dip and snatched up everything for cheap. We've been mooning ever since.
Sometimes shit makes no sense. A company can have blowout earnings, exceed expectations, and the stock will tank. I was holding one stock a little while ago that reported a fantastic earnings and proceeded to drill to the core of the Earth that day. It was total bullshit and I knew it, I trusted my DD. So instead of panic selling, I added to my position. Sure enough, the stock began swinging upwards and hit an all-time high just 2 weeks later. This is why simply gambling can bite you in the ass. It's easy to get scared and sell when you doubt yourself because you picked a random thing to buy.
Option Expiration Dates matter. Buying a 1 week option is the cheapest and gives the biggest percentage of profits if it goes your way. However, it can often be a noob trap. One bad day or one piece of bad news can kill your entire position. Stocks trade sideways sometimes. Sometimes they don't do what you think they should do. And sometimes the whole fucking market shits itself for seemingly no reason. So give yourself TIME to work with. Time costs money and hurts profit margins. But it is better to consistently make 50% profit than to hit one play for 300% followed by 10 losers. Look, playing weekly stupidly OTM calls is fun as hell and is a huge rush when it hits. I do at least one or more every week. The key is not loading your entire portfolio into this shit. Remember, no tendies = no more fun.
Along the same lines, Strike Price matters. An OTM (Out of the Money) option means that the Strike Price is a bit of a ways from where the stock's price currently is. OTM options give huge profit margins the further you go out. I personally enjoy using them.. some people don't. But my advice is to balance risk with profit potential. If your call relies on a stock gaining 50% in 2 weeks.. then well, it's probably not gonna happen. ITM (In The Money) options means that your stock is already within the strike price. ITM is a more conservative play and sacrifices massive gains for lower risk.
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculatolong-call.html - Use this to get an estimate of potential profits and how much of a move you need
Leaps are fuckin dope. A Leap is a call, but for a much longer period of time. I'm using the term loosely because we're degenerates and some people might consider anything more than 1 month a leap. Given that the market trends up over time, you might even make some money on a mediocre stock this way. A lot of people buy ITM leaps, but again, I'm a degenerate and go OTM a lot.
Implied Volatility (IV) - Extremely fucking important. IV is basically an estimation of how much a stock is predicted to move in either direction. High IV = Expensive Options. It's fucking weird to think, but you can make similar profits from a 2% move on a low IV stock as you can from a 5% move on a more volatile stock. Low IV is fantastic when buying an option on a stock that you think is about to moon. High IV is riskier, so you damn well better think the stock can make some big moves. Buying an option on a stock right before Earnings Report (ER) will be more expensive due to IV. Trying to play ER is usually for suckers, unless you have some really good DD about why a company might deliver a huge surprise. One of the textbook big boy moves is to pump a stock going into ER. The company will deliver great news and then dump hard. You may see people bitching about this very soon. Basically, big money knew ahead of time it would be good, so the stock got pumped and then they took profits.
Buy the rumor and sell the news. Events, press releases, and important dates that everyone knows about are another trap. You will get shit on. Ask someone about TESLA Battery Day. Positive rumors will send a stock soaring though.
Finally, get busy learning. Read about Options on Investopedia and any other things you do not understand. The big boys rely on us to not know what the fuck we're doing to take our money. Learn about the general market. Stocks are grouped into "Sectors" or categories. Start figuring out what they are and pay attention to where the money is going. I didn't even mention half of the shit that goes on in options, so that's on you. The first thing you need to do is to learn what the "Greeks" are. That will teach you how options function.
https://www.investopedia.com/trading/using-the-greeks-to-understand-options/
If anyone wants to talk or discuss, send me a message. I'm a degenerate with no life.
Oh and, if you follow someone's DD and lose money that's on you. I've come up with some genius shit, but I've also lost on some retarded calls. Nobody can pick you a guaranteed winner and hindsight is 20/20.
May the gains be with you

There seems to be a lot of interest in stocks from young investors. I imagine that many will make their way from WSB to this sub because WSB is a bunch of monkeys flinging poo. You may have lost some money and now you want to explore stocks from less of a Meme and emotional perspective.
There is nothing wrong with Meme stocks. Meme stocks can be fun. I have had fun with it. I am also a 42-year-old man with rental properties, commercial properties, and a few small businesses. BB, NOK, AMC, and even GME are all fine. The DD is fine behind all of them. The issue is that if I lose $1,000 then I can write myself a check from one of my businesses for $10,000 to make myself feel better. That is not a brag...it is simply sharing that people come from different places in life.
You are just starting off life and probably have far fewer resources and every dollar matters more.
I challenge anyone to CMV but I am not a big proponent of stocks as a core investment strategy. Here are my reasons why.

1. Information has a time-decay of value. Meaning that information becomes less valuable over time. Data is what is mined to often produce new Information. You are at a disadvantage when it comes to both data and information. The information that you get on a retail level has already lost much of its value. This is where the saying "if you read it in the news you are already too late"
2. You have no power. You simply cannot compete with whales and whales don't become whales by letting people glean the crumbs that are leftover. They have the power to move markets, you don't.
3. You have no control over outcomes. You have no control over the success of a company. You have no control over other investors. You have no control over anything.
4. The odds on options are not that great. Even compared to blackjack our betting the outside of a roulette table they are just not that good.
5. Many people that are far more intelligent than you are, lose money at stock investing.
6. Your emotions and FOMO will be a hindrance and problematic.
7. Most stock investors are too young to understand the market cycles

I like stocks as a small part of an overall investment strategy for young people for the following reasons.

1. Time is valuable and you have the most time
2. Compound interest is the "force" behind all investing and compound interest compliments the stock market very well
3. Certain strategies can complement long-term wealth building

Building wealth through stocks is like trying to build a house one brick at a time...just you, and you are gathering the straw, digging the mud, and pressing each brick by hand. When it rains many of your bricks will wash away. If the sun shines for enough days then you will make good progress.
The problem is that all markets cycle. The housing market cycles. Petroleum and natural gas cycles. The stock market cycles. I believe that a full market cycle is around 18 years with around 7-12 years in an up cycle and 6-11 in a down cycle. In the stock market, they call these bull and bear markets. We are currently in one of the longest bull markets on record due to interest rates and the feds printing money. No one has a crystal ball but sooner or later the market will peak. When this happens Boomers will be the first to pull money out and put it into bonds or CDs. Boomers are as big of a whale as retail can get. Anyone and I mean anyone could have made money in the current market. If ten years ago you had asked a five-year-old to pick five of their favorite things and invested in their choices you would have made money. That could be Barbies, YouTube, Pizza, Sprite, and their Dog. They would have made money on any stocks you picked around those five things.
There will come a day sooner or later when Boomers and GenX will see trends in the market that they don't like. Boomers own multiple houses and are deep into retirement. GenX is a small but powerful generation that is now on the back Nine Holes of life. Gen X will largely inherit the wealth of the Boomers. There will come a shift towards mitigating losses and that shift is not far away. When they move their money from markets so goes the market.
Is it fair to say that one of the longest bull cycles on record could transition to one of the longest bear cycles?
Let's look at Millenials...a generation that is struggling to just buy a home. Boomers own a few. GenX may own a couple and Millenials that are now entering into their forties struggle with one. Millenials are a massively sized generation that I believe is now bigger than both GenX and Boomers combined because Boomers are dying at a rapid pace. Millenials are the generation that were adults starting life and careers in 2008 and full-blown families with Covid-19. Maybe one of the unluckiest generations.
GenZ is this very talented and intelligent generation. Y'all are creating disruptions in culture, in politics, and in Wall Street. You are savvy and demanding. Giving billionaires the finger while pissing on the front door of their mansions.
But you need to be careful.
Stocks are not the key to your success. They are just a single tool in your toolbox. A better tool may be early homeownership or owning a small business. Life is about options...and I am not talking about the gambling options of Wall Street. I am talking about the options of having equity in a home to adapt to economic swings. I am, talking about the options of owning a small business where your day to day decisions make you smarter and more valuable. Where you own assets that make you money. Most importantly you have control over your own destiny.
I am not telling you not to invest in stocks. I am just telling you that it should be a limited part of your overall strategy in life. Unless someone has been through two complete cycles of the stock markets then I would take their advice with a grain of salt.
General advice:

1. Don't sell stocks that you have taken a loss on
2. Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying
3. Invest in stocks with a strategy based on your knowledge and experience
4. Invest only what you can afford to lose
5. Stocks work best with time. Leave them alone
6. Be a value investor
7. Invest with a purpose

Number seven is important. For example, I like Robotics, AI, and Automation. I like these is two specific areas....transportation and mining. I operate in the Transportation industry. I know that very soon human drivers will be eliminated and self-driving trucks will take over. Trucks will be loaded, driven, and unloaded without a single human being doing any of that work. With that will come an entire supporting industry. Tow trucks will need to be automatically dispatched when trucks break down or in accidents. AI will need to be involved in decision making. I will see these changes before I am dead and I am 42.
I like underwater mining. Our oceans are the next frontier and the next gold rush. We have areas of sea bottom that has very little life but is rich in gasses, minerals, and thermal energy. Automation, AI, and robotics will play a huge role in underwater mining. I will see this transition start in my lifetime and I am 42.
Beyond that, once we have machines that are capable of underwater mining then we have the basics for machines that can mine inner-system planetary objects. From nearby asteroids to the moon, to thermal energy collection closer to the sun, to Mars and beyond. The wealthiest person in existence will be the person that is able to start the first off-planet mining operation. Where there is no EPA, no taxes on land, where we are not building sub-divisions next to mines. Where we don't have to worry about the ecosystem. Where gasses and pollutants are not pollutants because there is nothing of consequence to pollute. The largest land-owners in existence will be the owner of off-world mining operations. That may not happen in my lifetime...but it may in yours.
I like investing in Meme stocks because they are fun. But I also invest in Robotics, AI, and automation with one-single question....is this company taking humanity one-step close to automated transportation or underwater mining? I invest with a purpose.
Sure I will grab up some value stocks every now and then. People are going to be flying more than ever in a few years. People are going to be more social than ever in a few years. Shoot Condom manufacturers are a buy right now because people will be..........you get the idea.
The whole reason that I wrote this excessively long post is to maybe get you into thinking about your strategy....what is it? And to caution you on being "all-in" on stocks.
Stonks don't always go up.

Also on my blog with better formatting, cute footnotes and inlined images.
Note that not much here is new material, mostly rehashing existing points.

Disclaimer

This article started out as research for my betting against Bitcoin on the stock market. This isn't financial advice. As a matter of fact, I encourage all readers you to not buy or short crypto, through any market or derivative. Use your money for productive uses.
Here's a TL;DR:

1. The current parabolic price increase in Bitcoin is a bubble that has started popping.
   
2. A stablecoin called Tether is either one of the largest frauds or money laundering operation in history, and is providing most of the liquidity in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
   
3. A BTC bubble pop, incoming regulation on stablecoins or the current NYAG investigation into tether will expose tether's insolvency to the crypto market. This is bigger than it sounds.
   
4. (Speculative, but one can hope) Current prices to mine BTC could end up higher than BTC market price, exposing BTC to a 51% attack.
   

A Recap: Bitcoin is useless and should go away

Bitcoin serves no purpose. Let's just rehash that by quickly debunking the major claimed uses over time as seen here

• Proof of concept: No argument here, but now that the market cap of cryptocurrencies is closing in on a $700B, this seems moot.
  
• Cheap Payment Network: Nonsense, since BTC transactions are currently >$10 and this worsens the more people use it.
  
• Anonymous Darknet Currency: I'd have said "no argument here", but apparently it's surprisingly easy to trace BTC nowadays. However, crypto ecosystem as a whole seems to do a decent job at laundering money as we'll see later.
  
• Reserve Currency for Crypto: Since a reserve currency should be useful as a means of exchange, and I wrote several thousand words on how BTC is not that, my position is pretty clear. Also, the fact that a cryptocurrency indexed to the US dollar has trounced BTC as the main means of exchange in the crypto ecosystem speaks for itself.
  
• Programmable Shared Database: You know what's programmable, shared and a database? The database we use at work. Just learn to implement access control lists on your SQL server.
  
• Uncorrelated Financial Asset: Given BTC crashed just like the rest of the market when COVID showed up, this doesn't hold up
  

The stupidest version of the "uncorrelated asset" argument I hear is "Bitcoin is a great hedge for inflation!"
You know what's a good "hedge for inflation"? Literally anything. The definition of inflation is "the price of money". If the price of money goes down (inflation) then everything else has a positive return by comparison.
People who say "bitcoin is a good hedge for inflation" shouldn't be trusted to manage their own money, let alone give financial advice to anyone.

• Censorship Resistant e-Gold: This is a roundabout way of saying "BTC is a store of value"! Which, again, can only be said by people who've never read the definition of "store of value" in a textbook.

I already went into detail into this, but BTC is a terrible store of value because it's volatile. Assets that can lose 20% of value overnight don't "store value". BTC is a "vehicle for speculation".
The only way price is sustained for BTC is that you can find some other idiot to sell it to. Just as a reminder, 50% of Gold is used for things that aren't speculation, like Jewelry, so you'll never have to worry finding a seller there.
Here are some real uses for bitcoin:

• Gambling is fun. You buy BTC, the price might go up! Or down! This is exciting.
  
• Hackers, money launderers and other criminals certainly find cryptocurrencies useful.
  

Reminder: BTC is an ecological scourge
The current cost to mine a BTC is around $8000 in electricity. This electricity mostly comes from subsidized coal in China.
And given the current amount of BTC generated each day, we're using about equivalent to the electricity from all of Belgium, largely in coal, to keep this going.
I don't mind wasting time on intellectual curiosities, but destroying our planet for glorified gambling is not something I'm happy about. I want cryptocurrencies to go away entirely on this basis, philosophically.

Current BTC prices are a bubble

Before we go into tether, reminder that at the time of writing, the plot of BTC price against the S&P500 looks like this
BTC price has increased by ~800% since March. Still, no one uses it for anything useful since the last bubble in 2017, or the other one before that in 2013. This is another bubble however you put it.
BTC is not "new technology"
10 years the internet became popular, Google and Amazon already existed. We're 8 years after the popular emergence of deep learning and it has already revolutionized machine translation, computer vision and natural language processing in general.
You could argue that deep learning and the internet existed before their emergence, but so did cryptocurrencies. Look up b-money and hashcash for instance.
Bitcoin has existed since 2008 and emerged in popularity around the same time as deep learning did, yet we're still to find actual uses for it except speculation and criminal uses. It's a solution waiting for a problem.
Institutional investors are also idiots
The narrative this time is that "institutional investors" are buying into BTC. This doesn't mean it's not a bubble.
Many of the institutions were buying through Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Rather, many of them were chasing the premium over net asset value that hovered around 20%. Basically, lock money in GBTC for 6 months, cash out and collect the premium as profit. Of course, this little Ponzi couldn't last forever and the premium seems to be evaporating now.
Similarly, totally-not-a-bitcoin-ETF-wearing-a-software-company-skinsuit Microstrategy (MSTR) trades at a massive premium over fundamentals.
There will always be traders chasing bonuses from numbers going up, regardless what is making the number going up. The same "institutional investors" were buying obviously terrible CDOs in the run-up to 2008.

Tether is lunacy

Tether is a cryptocurrency whose exchange rate is supposed to be pegged to the US Dollar. Initially this was done by having 1-to-1 US Dollar reserves for each tether issued. Then they got scammed by their money launderer, losing some $800M, which made them insolvent.
Anyway, now tether maintains their reserves are whatever they want them to be and they haven't gotten audited since 2017.
You know, normal stuff.
There's a problem to backing your USD-pegged security with something that isn't US Dollars. Namely, if the price of the thing you're backing your US Dollars against goes down, you're now insolvent. If you were backing $10B in tether with $10B of bitcoin, then the bitcoin drops by half, you're insolvent by $5B.
And then this spotlessly clean company they somehow added $20B to their balance sheet in the second half of 2020
Reminder: one side of that balance sheet is currently floating around the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Cryptocurrency traders own it as an asset and sell it to others. The other half of the balance sheet is whatever tether wants.
There are only two possibilities that explain tether's growth:

• Massive unbacked issuances, because they're afraid their scam has run its course.
  
• Money laundering. Lots of it.
  

It could also be a happy mix of both.
One particularly interesting date is 30/8/2020, where tether added $3B to its balance sheet overnight. This is interesting because it predates the subsequent movement in bitcoin price and large movements in other cryptocurrencies.
The story from tether and tether's bank's CEO is that this money largely comes from foreign nationals through an OTC desk which implies the transaction goes as following:

1. A foreign national sends money in a foreign currency to an OTC desk. This is exactly as clean as you'd think -- often raw cash transactions in the millions.
   
2. That OTC desk converts the money to USD and sends it to tether's correspondent US bank. The OTC desk gives tether to the foreign national.
   
3. Wait tether has a correspondent US bank?
   

Oh, I forgot to mention, no bank wants tether as a customer because they obviously break KYC/AML compliance. So tether first bought invested in a bank called Noble which then lost its relationship with Wells-Fargo when they realized tether were lying to them about AML. Poor tether lost its legal access to USD.
Tether has been banking in the Bahamas with a bank called Deltec since. First they had a money launderer called Crypto Capital Corp to send funds to customers, who stole the $800M from them and subsequently went to jail.
But worry not! Tether found a way to get banked in USD afterwards. Curious coincidence, an executive at Deltec was randomly blogging about buying small US community banks in 2018. You know, that thing money launderers do.
So tether's story is that in 2020, they took in roughly twenty billion USD of shady foreign money into the small community US bank their deltec bankers bought. These transactions are necessarily breaking KYC/AML. The foreign parties to those transactions wouldn't take such a rickety route to convert billions into cryptocurrencies if they weren't laughed out of the room in serious banks.
But of course, Deltec will say it did KYC on tether. Really solid KYC, clearly, since they're the last bank on earth taking tether's business. Tether says they do KYC on their customers (the large OTC desks). And I'm sure the OTC desks would be shocked, shocked if the cash money they get in Russia and China turns out to be dirty. So everyone can pass the buck of responsibility down the road and claim "We do KYC on our customers".
Sure you do, tether. If you did such great KYC, you wouldn't have such problems finding banking relationships. I mean when even HSBC is not doing business with you you're apparently more obviously moving criminal money than fucking drug cartels.
And, according to tether's people, this money is what's backing tether's reserves. Money that will get frozen the instant a prosecutor even looks at it.
Reminder: the above is the charitable, positive case for tether.
The less charitable case is that they took crayons and added zeros to their balance sheet, and that there's a couple billions waiting to burn a hole in the crypto ecosystem.
Anyway, the $25B garbage fire that is tether will make a great book/netflix series at some point and their hilariously stupid CTO going on podcasts while flinching on questions about how BTC ended up on their balance sheet will be a fun part of it.
But I'm not here to write a book, I'm here to make money by shorting all of this. For my purposes, even in the positive case tether is a ticking time bomb waiting to burn a hole in the crypto ecosystem, because...

KYC and AML are coming for cryptocurrencies

If you listen to "crypto news", all incoming crypto regulation is just great, because that means crypto is becoming legit. However, companies investing in crypto are very angry about them.
This is because crypto transactions break the FinCEN travel rule, where KYC information should "travel" along transactions, to prevent money laundering obfuscation schemes.
Of course, according to the crypto industry this is "stifling innovation". A more reasonable take is that by being leaving the crypto industry outside normal financial regulations, we're enabling a "race to the bottom". As we saw with shadow banks in the 2000-2007 era this leads to "creative banking". I don't want my bankers to be creative, I want them to be solvent.

Tether's effect on the crypto ecosystem

When tether implodes, it's taking most of the crypto industry along for a fun ride. Tether can implode in one of a few ways:

1. A BTC price crash triggers it. If
   
2. Regulators decide they've had enough of AML avoidance and regulate them.
   
3. The NYAG investigation, which is waiting for an update in a few weeks, finds something and shuts them out.
   

Let's assume tether falls to $0 for simplicity. The analysis is the same directionally if tether significantly "breaks the buck".
This doesn't happen instantly, but it happens quickly. The peg breaks, and most people holding tether will try to sell it for other crypto (BTC, ETH, etc.). This puts downward pressure on the price of tether, incentivizing even more people to "pass the buck". Automated inter-exchange arbitrage bots might try to exploit emerging gaps in bid-ask spreads, only to end up with worthless tether instead, as their operators rush to pull the plug.
Then, we have a small village of cryptocurrency enthusiasts being out some $24B. With the trading bots turned off and the trading lubricant (a dollar pegged asset) gone, the bid-ask spreads blow up. You get a predictable flight to safety -- that is, to real money. This puts downward pressure on BTC.
While all of this is happening, there are all sorts of fun second-order effects happen. A lot of DeFi derivative products are priced in cryptocurrencies, so having normally stable prices shuffle around (eg. USDC price moving above $1 in a flight to safety) triggers a tsunami of margin calls. Some exchanges might insolvent (they're the ones redeeming tether for USD after all).

If BTC price drops below $8000, fun things happen

Currently, the price to mine a BTC is roughly $8000. Most of the mining comes from huge mining farms using subsidized coal in China, and mining costs more the more hardware there is to mine it.
Since the price of BTC hasn't substantially dropped below cost to mine we're in for a fun experiment if the price drops below this threshold. Most of these farms should turn off so that the price to mine comes back to breakeven in a case of prisoner's dilemma.
But if too much hardware turns off, this leaves mining hardware idle and the door becomes wide open to a 51% attack. It's not clear at what price below breakeven cost to mine a 51% attack becomes a serious threat, but once this threshold is crossed, we're in the "irreparable harm to BTC" risk zone.
And for a person like me, who just wants to see crypto disappear forever this is very exciting.
Maybe those mining farms could be replaced with nice forests soaking up all the carbon they emitted for posterity. One can hope.

How do I bet against all of this?

Microstrategy (MSTR) is, at this point, a bitcoin ETF wearing the skinsuit of a dying software company.
Michael Saylor, MSTR's CEO, is quite the character. I wrote a lot about his lack understanding of what a currency is, but it's on another level to look at the early stages of a bubble pop and decide this is a good time to buy $10M more of the stuff, as seen here
However, this bubble is tame by Michael's standards. Look at the historical stock of his company
What's happening on the left is that Saylor pumped the numbers with accounting fraud then the SEC took issue with the fake numbers. The stock dropped 90% practically overnight. Their accountants, PWC, paid $51M in fines. Saylor and friends paid fines, partly with company stock.
You could also short GBTC, but when Mr. Saylor provides you with an options market instead, why not use it? Shorting on crypto exchanges that might become insolvent in the very event you want to happen with this bet is a bad idea, on the other hand.

Mike can't cash out

The bitcoin market is illiquid and leveraged when it comes to real money coming in and leaving the ecosystem. Buys in the $10M-$100M seemingly move the price of BTC by upwards of $1000 in the last weeks. This means hundreds of millions of real money means tens of billions in movement in BTC market capitalization.
Now imagine what cashing $1.1B of BTC into real money would mean for the price. And this is purely in market terms, before the PR damage from bitcoin's demigod abandoning ship would have second-order effects.
Saylor has painted himself into a corner. Even if he wanted to cash out, he can't.

MSTR fundamentals: Why it should be valued below $10

In early 2020, MSTR was a slowly dying business. The EBITDA has been rapidly evaporating in the last 5 years
At that point, MSTR a stock price of $115 meaning a market cap of $1.1B. This included some $560M of cash they were sitting on. I presume the remaining $550M was an implicit sales premium for the inevitable private equity firm investors expected was going to relieve them of this stock and make the business profitable again.
Of course, they didn't sell.
Instead, they took the $560m they were sitting on and bought $400m of BTC at prices $11k and $13k in late summer 2020. Then, in early December, they took on $600m of debt to buy BTC with at $23k. They also bought $10m more in January at a price of $30.5k.
At this point, we can mostly value MSTR like a trust.

• Price the underlying software business as being worth $600M, as the market did before the bitcoin nonsense. If BTC went to $0, this is what we'd value it at, and the MSTR stock should be around $65.
  
• But wait! MSTR took on $650M in debt in December. Their actual value with a BTC priced at $0 should be much, much lower than $65 depending on how you value the debt. You could make an argument it should be in the single digits.
  
• They hold 70,784 BTC. At current prices ($32,000) this is worth roughly $2.2B. With the current market cap of MSTR ($577 stock price), this means MSTR is currently priced at an eye watering $3B premium over fundamental value.
  

GBTC's 20% premium-to-NAV is a joke compared to the MSTR premium.

I added in projected compensatory picks from OTC and the compensatory picks from the new minority candidate development rule. Not sure how those are supposed to be structured in, so I simply used the OTC ones first in the order, but took off the last 3 estimated compensatory picks to ensure it remained at a simple 32 compensatory picks added. So apologies to the Cowboys, Bears, and Steelers. You might have been robbed of a pick but I don't know the specifics of how all those will be factored in. If someone knows the actual way those will set-up, that'd be useful information. Going to provide commentary on rounds 1-3 then maybe the occasional commentary after that if I really like a fit.
Also, there's a chance that I missed someone announcing they were returning to school or not. Just let me know if so.

Pre-Draft Trades

Using the terms suggested from a SB Nation article, so yell at them if you hate it: CAR sends: QB Teddy Bridgewater, 2021, 2022, 2023 first-round picks, 2021, 2022 second-round picks HOU sends: QB Deshaun Watson
The Panthers have drafted relatively well the last 2-3 years, as they have several younger pieces they can continue building around. Thus, a major package to land QB Deshaun Watson should be something they explore. For Houston, a king's ransom for a disgruntled star who really wants out.
An NFC championship contender adds a big piece to their offense: GB sends: 2021 second-round pick, 2022 fifth-round pick DAL sends: WR Michael Gallup, 2021 seventh-round pick
The Packers add some extra firepower on offense by adding Gallup. With Rodgers window coming to a close, the Packers take a chance that an established veteran like Gallup will do more for them than a very late second-round pick. Dallas has Amari Cooper and now CeeDee Lamb at WR, making Gallup expendable if they get a good offer for him.
An NFC playoff team makes a splash at the quarterback position: WAS sends: 2021 fourth-round pick, 2022 seventh-round pick JAC sends: QB Gardner Minshew
While the Redskins did not land Stafford, they could still find a solid upgrade at the QB position by bringing in Gardner Minshew. I love how he fits in Scott Turner's offense, and think this would be a decent enough price to pay to give them some stability at the position.

First Round

(1) Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson - I'd imagine even though it's the only pick that never changes, Jaguars fans aren't bored of seeing this. Lawrence is a special player and their best bet at turning things around in a hurry.
(2) New York Jets - QB Zach Wilson, BYU - There still could be a small chance that the Jets stick with Sam Darnold, but we're going to go ahead and give Darnold a fresh-start somewhere else (trade to be revealed later). I have Fields a smidge higher than Zach Wilson, but could easily see him being the selection here. I think Wilson's a better fit, however, for LaFleur's Shanahan style offense. Either way, a talented QB for the Jets and head coach Robert Saleh (great f***ing hire btw Jets fans).
(3) Miami Dolphins (via HOU) - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon - With the Panthers giving up a haul for Deshaun Watson, the Dolphins may not have a lot of options to trade out of this spot. Thus, they stick tight and land an elite pass protector for QB Tua Tagovailoa.
(4) Atlanta Falcons - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State - Personally, I love the idea of Fields coming back home to Georgia to sit behind Matt Ryan for a season. The Falcons, and new head coach Arthur Smith, would be wise to take a QB while they're in a natural position to snag one. Ryan will start 2021 for sure due to his contract, but if things go well, they could make a Mahomes like transition to Fields into 2022.
(5) Cincinnati Bengals - OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern - There a lot of buzz that Slater could be above Sewell in the mind of many NFL executives. Either way, it's a strong pick for the Bengals and Joe Burrow to land a top offensive tackle.
TRADE! The Patriots send their 2021 1st (1.15) along with a 2021 3rd (3.98) and a 2022 1st to the Eagles to move up to their selection at 6.
(6) New England Patriots (via PHI) - QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State - The Patriots need to make a significant investment in the QB position, as neither Cam Newton nor Jarrett Sitdham looked like the answer for them in 2020. Here they make a splash trade to move up and grab Lance, a player with immense physical talent. Ideally they'd land a veteran QB like Ryan Fitzpatrick to start in 2021 while they let Lance develop.
(7) Detroit Lions - WR Devonta Smith, Alabama - One thing lost in the Stafford-Goff trade is Detroit essentially nuking its cap space by bringing in Goff's $28 million deal. Now $11 million over the estimated cap, the Lions do not seem likely to retain WR Kenny Golladay at this point. They need a replacement for Goff to throw to while they determine if he'll be around longer than 2021.
(8) Houston Texans (via CAR) - CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech - Without a QB available here, the Texans play it patient, letting newly acquired Teddy Bridgewater run the show in 2021. They instead my personal top choice at corner this year, Virginia Tech's Caleb Farley. For a defense that needs to get turned around, he represents an excellent building block for them.
TRADE! The Miami Dolphins get aggressive here, sending their second first-round pick (1.18), a 2021 3rd (3.82) and a 2022 2nd round pick, and swap 2nds with Denver to move up here.
(9) Miami Dolphins (via DEN) - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU - The Dolphins go land a premier wide receiver target for QB Tua Tagovailoa to throw to. Chase and Smith will be widely debated for the top wide receiver honors in this draft class. Miami would likely be elated to add either one of them.
(10) Dallas Cowboys - CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama - Surtain may not be my top cornerback, but the Cowboys should have no hesitation adding him here at tenth overall, especially considering the dire state of their defense.
(11) New York Giants - EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan - Paye is an exceptional athletic talent. Much like fellow Wolverine Rashan Gary coming out of Ann Arbor, he's still got plenty of room to grow into an elite rusher. He was dominant in the first few games for the Wolverines in an otherwise rough 2020 season for Harbaugh and co.
(12) San Francisco 49ers - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina - I have top-15 grades on all three of the corners listed so far, so this remains excellent value in my opinion for the 49ers. They're likely going to lose a handful of cornerbacks to free agency this year, so landing a premier rookie to develop into a stud for DeMeco Ryans defense is a priority.
(13) Los Angeles Chargers - OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech - An excellent group of tackles in this year's draft class is a big benefit for the Chargers, as they're able to land a premier prospect like Darrisaw. He'll fit well in new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's offense in his second-go as a play-caller.
(14) Minnesota Vikings - T/G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC - Vera-Tucker has the flexibility to play tackle or move inside to guard. The Vikings have a similar player in Ezra Cleveland, which should give them the ability to move some guys around and find the ideal pairing here.
(15) Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami - The Eagles probably have some positional needs above this, but it'd be a mistake to go for a worse player at a lesser player, thus the selection of Rousseau. He's an elite athlete and was incredibly disruptive for the Hurricanes in 2019. With Brandon Graham getting up there in age, and Vinny Curry set to hit free agency, this selection goes best player available with the near future in mind.
(16) Arizona Cardinals - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida - The Cardinals could use a monsterous pass catcher like Pitts to pair with DeAndre Hopkins. With some strong flashes from QB Kyler Murray in 2020, adding one more weapon could provide the breakthrough the Cardinals need to make it into the playoffs.
TRADE! The Steelers make a move up, sending a 1st (1.24), their third (3.88) and a 2022 fifth to move up and make the selection here instead of the Raiders.
(17) Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas - Jumping ahead of a couple of OT-needy teams in the WFT and the Bears, Pittsburgh gets its future franchise pass protector. Cosmi's film shows a highly athletic tackle who has gotten better each season in Austin. Put in a strong program under Mike Tomlin, I think Cosmi can thrive as a future All-Pro.
(18) Denver Broncos (via MIA) - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State - The Broncos land an absolute steal here with Parsons, an elite blend of size and speed at the LB position. Additionally, his versatility should be a weapon for Vic Fangio to deploy, as he's capable of filling multiple roles on any defense.
(19) Washington Football Team - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama - I think a bigger wide receiver would work a bit better, but Scott Turner's creativity in building an offense around mostly role/gadget players like Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic gives me confidence he can make it work with an elite talent like Waddle.
(20) Chicago Bears - G Wyatt Davis, Ohio State - The Bears could probably go for a tackle a little bit more than a guard, but beggars cannot be choosers this late into the first-round. They land an elite interior lineman to immediately give a boost to their offensive line.
(21) Indianapolis Colts - QB Mac Jones, Alabama - Philip Rivers retired, Jacoby Brissett is a free agent, and Jacob Eason wasn't active for a single game. Add it all together and it looks like the Colts are in need of a QB like Jones. A decisive passer with a good deep ball, he'll be a nice addition for Frank Reich to mentor.
(22) Tennessee Titans - EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami - The Titans pass rusher was miserable this past season. Injecting some youth and athleticism into the equation could help Mike Vrabel get his defense back on track. Phillips was excellent for the Hurricanes in 2020.
(23) New York Jets (via SEA) - OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama - The Jets add another big body here to pair on the other side of LT Mekhi Becton. With those two in town, new QB Zach Wilson should feel quite comfortable in the pocket.
(24) Las Vegas Raiders (via PIT) - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama - The sixth Crimson Tide player selected, Barmore was dominant the second half of the season in Tuscaloosa. He'd fill a big need on Ken Whisenhu...I mean, Gus Bradley's defense here in Vegas.
(25) Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - WR Kadarius Toney, Florida - The Jaguars give Trevor Lawrence an explosive weapon to throw to. Toney lit up the SEC this season and was very impressive at the Senior Bowl. He'd join former Florida head coach Urban Meyer a short drive away.
(26) Cleveland Browns - DT Daviyon Nixon, Iowa - The Browns drafting this late with their own selection is a sign of how far they've come in recent years. They now have the ability to sit back and take the best player on the board in Nixon, a dominant pass rusher who came on strong in Big Ten play this year.
(27) Baltimore Ravens - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota - I believe I've had this pick in the last mock I did as well, but it makes way too much sense. The Ravens need a top option at wide receiver and Bateman's a crafty player who fits their offense well.
(28) New Orleans Saints - CB Aaron Robinson, UCF - Robinson is a very underrated corner in this draft, and I really think he'll have a shot to land in the first-round. A quick player who always ends up in the right position, he'd be an excellent addition to the Saints defense.
(29) Green Bay Packers - LB Nick Bolton, Missouri - The Packers need some fresh blood at the second level, and Bolton's an absolute missile who flies all over the field. Bolton would fit really well in the middle of their defense, especially if the Packers hire a 3-4 zone blitz genius like Jim Leonhard as their new coordinator.
(30) Buffalo Bills - EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - A debate here between Ojulari and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, but ultimately think the depth at LB is a bit better in this class then pass rusher. So, Ojulari joins Sean McDermott's defense in Buffalo.
(31) Kansas City Chiefs - iOL Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - The Chiefs need to add a starting caliber player to the interior of their offense line, and if Humphrey slides to them in the first-round, that'd be excellent value for them.
(32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - RB Najee Harris, Alabama - Congratulations Bucs fans and the Brady bandwagon! Now, don't get too caught up on the position, the best way to maintain your dominance is to continue adding elite pieces, and Harris is a potential star at the RB position. Excellent in-between the tackles as well as in the passing game.

Second Round

(33) Jacksonville Jaguars - S Trevon Moehrig, TCU - I almost thought about Moehrig with their second first-round pick, but ultimately he still lands in Jacksonville.
(34) New York Jets - RB Travis Etienne, Clemson - The Jets have the cap space to add a veteran WR like Allen Robinson or Kenny Golladay, so use the draft to add a stellar running back.
(35) Atlanta Falcons - CB Erik Stokes, Georgia - Another Georgia player sticking around, as Stokes gives them an excellent option to develop alongside Terrell.
(36) Denver Broncos (via MIA) - CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern - A rising star at the cornerback position, Newsome fits well into Fangio's defense.
(37) Philadelphia Eagles - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - After adding an edge rusher earlier, the Eagles add a top wideout in the Trojan's star.
(38) Cincinnati Bengals - G Deonte Brown, Alabama - The Bengals, after trading for another starting guard earlier, continue to overhaul their line.
(39) Houston Texans (via CAR) - EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas - The Texans add some pass rushing help on the edge of their front seven with Ossai.
(40) Miami Dolphins (via DEN) - OLB Zaven Collins, Tulsa - Collins is an ideal fit for Brian Flores, as he can lineup in a handful of different spots, similar to some of the linebackers he's worked with in Miami and New England.
(41) Detroit Lions - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame - The Lions add a rangy linebacker who can give them some much needed at the position.
(42) New York Giants - G Trey Smith, Tennessee - The Giants get an upgrade along the offensive with a powerful guard like Smith.
(43) San Francisco 49ers - DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington - The 49ers add an elite defensive tackle to pair with Javon Kinlaw on the inside.
(44) Dallas Cowboys - OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State - The Cowboys went defense earlier, but add a talented offensive lineman to restock the trenches here.
(45) Jacksonville Jaguars - TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State - If Freiermuth falls to the Jags here that'd be an absolute steal. A high-caliber tight end who can do everything needed at the position.
(46) New England Patriots - WR Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU - The Patriots, even if they add a QB, still need more weapons at WR. Marshall is an excellent one.
(47) Los Angeles Chargers - CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse - The Chargers give new head coach Brandon Staley an elite athlete to mold into a dominant cornerback for them.
(48) Las Vegas Raiders - EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington - The Raiders bring in another talent piece of Washington 2019 defensive line. He's got a high motor along with immense upside.
TRADE! The Colts hop in front of the Dolphins to land their guy. They send a 2022 3rd round pick along with their second (2.54) here to the Cardinals in exchange for this selection and a 2022 7th round pick.
(49) Indianapolis Colts (via ARI) - EDGE Carlos Basham, Wake Forest - I think Basham could definitely go higher than this, but if he's available in the second, the Colts should jump up to land him.
(50) Miami Dolphins - S Jevon Holland, Oregon - The Dolphins add a playmaking safety to join their defense. Holland was an excellent leader on defense for the Ducks.
(51) Washington Football Team - OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State - Washington has gotten serviceable production from a pair of aging OT's in Moses and Lucas. They add a developmental tackle to replace them soon enough.
(52) Chicago Bears - WR Nico Collins, Michigan - The Bears could see star WR Allen Robinson walk in free agency. Adding a deep threat like Collins to pair with Mooney would be fun.
(53) Tennessee Titans - OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan - Another Wolverine in the second round here, Mayfield would give the Titans a strong Michigan-based tackle duo with Taylor Lewan's return.
(54) Arizona Cardinals (via IND) - iOL Landon Dickerson, Alabama - A tough, hard-nosed player on the interior, Dickerson can play a handful of spots, making him a versatile addition to the Cardinals line.
(55) Pittsburgh Steelers - RB Javonte Williams, North Carolina - The Steelers add a stud running back to help revive their run game.
(56) Seattle Seahawks - EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State - The Seahawks could use some pass rush. Oweh's a bit raw, but can develop into a useful piece for Pete Carroll.
(57) Los Angeles Rams - LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina - The Rams add an athletic player at the second-level to keep their defense playing elite football. With the addition of QB Matthew Stafford, the Rams could be serious contenders for the NFC title in 2021.
(58) Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami - Adding Roche as a rush end in Martindale's 3-4 defense would be an excellent move as Baltimore seems unlikely to retain both Yannick Ngakoue and Matt Judon.
(59) Cleveland Browns - S Richie Grant, UCF - For a school most associate with high-powered offense, the UCF secondary is loaded, and Grant would make a fine addition for the Browns.
TRADE! The Saints send 2.60 and a 2022 third to the Jets in exchange for QB Sam Darnold.
(60) New York Jets (via NO) - WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss - He seems to be trending higher than this, but either way, the Jets substitute a backup QB for an explosive wide receiver for Zach Wilson.
(61) Buffalo Bills - OT Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa - The Bills run game needs a boost on the offensive line, and Brown's monstrous frame gives a lot of weight to that.
(62) Dallas Cowboys (via GB) - DT Jay Tufele, USC - After adding offensive line earlier in the second, the Cowboys go back to restocking their defense with talent.
(63) Kansas City Chiefs - WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan - The Chiefs likely lose WR Sammy Watkins, but find an explosive piece here to replace him.
(64) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Hamilcar Rashed Jr., Oregon State - Rashed has a lot of physical traits that bolster his potential. Letting Todd Bowles develop him would be ideal.

Third Round

(65) Jacksonville Jaguars - EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh - Urban Meyer and Jags add a defensive end with a high motor to develop along with Josh Allen and K'Lavon Chaisson.
(66) New York Jets - CB Keith Taylor Jr., Washington - A long, versatile defensive back, Taylor reminds me a good deal of 49ers CB Richard Sherman in his playstyle.
(67) Houston Texans - S Talanoa Hufanga, USC - The Texans continue to overhaul their defense here, bringing in Hufanga to play a handful of roles in their backfield.
(68) Atlanta Falcons - RB Michael Carter, North Carolina - Excellent value for the Falcons here, whether or not they bring back RB Todd Gurley who played on a 1-year deal in 2020.
(69) Cincinnati Bengals - CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford - The Bengals give their defense some reinforcements with the selection of an experienced corner like Adebo.
(70) Philadelphia Eagles - LB Jabrill Cox, LSU - The Eagles add a great athlete to the second-level of their defense. Cox has shown a lot of potential as a modern backer.
(71) Denver Broncos - EDGE Janarius Robinson, Florida State - With Von Miller in a bit of hot water at the moment, Denver make want to add a pass rusher to develop just in case.
(72) Detroit Lions - S Andre Cisco, Syracuse - Detroit's safety play was poor last year. Adding a high potential player like Cisco could be a good move for the rebuilding Lions.
(73) Carolina Panthers - TE Hunter Long, Boston College - Welcome to the board, Carolina! After making a splash trade for QB Deshaun Watson, the Panthers give him another weapon at tight end. Long impressed during the Senior Bowl.
(74) Washington Football Team - LB Cameron McGrone, Michigan - McGrone has some inconsistency to his play, but offers a lot of upside for someone who can straighten him out.
(75) Dallas Cowboys - EDGE Victor Dimukeje, Duke - The Cowboys take a chance on Dimukeje here to help get after opposing QB's more frequently.
(76) New York Giants - WR Rondale Moore, Purdue - I'd anticipate Golden Tate being a cap cut, and if so, Moore would be an explosive slot weapon to replace him.
(77) New England Patriots - PICK FORFEITED
(78) Los Angeles Chargers - EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt - A craft, versatile edge rusher, he'd project as an OLB in Staley defense with the Chargers.
(79) Minnesota Vikings - DT Alim McNeill, North Carolina State - The Vikings add an explosive 3-technique to help get their defense turned around in a hurry.
(80) Arizona Cardinals - CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State - Wade was overhyped early on, but would fit well in the Cardinals defense, developing as a future replacement for Patrick Peterson.
(81) Las Vegas Raiders - S Richard Lecounte, Georgia - The Raiders add an experienced safety on the back end who can help them slow down divisional offenses led by Mahomes and Herbert.
(82) Denver Broncos - OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame - The Broncos stop a bit of a slide here for Eichenberg. He has the ability to play RT or on the inside for Denver.
(83) Washington Football Team - S Joshuah Bledsoe, Missouri - An underrated player at the position, Bledsoe has a ton of versatility and would fit very well reinforcing Washington's already stellar defense.
(84) Chicago Bears - QB Kyle Trask, Florida - The Bears don't ignore the QB position entirely, as they take a later-than-expected flier on Trask. He was very good for Florida.
(85) Indianapolis Colts - CB Elijah Molden, Washington - Not the biggest need on the Colts roster, but they should have the cap to plug holes in free agency and pick better players, like Molden, here.
(86) Tennessee Titans - WR Dyami Brown, North Carolina - The Titans do have a stud WR in A.J. Brown, but with Corey Davis likely landing big money elsewhere, adding another player here is important.
(87) New York Jets (via SEA) - EDGE Payton Turner, Houston - A versatile pass rusher who can fit either a 4-3 or 3-4. Whatever system Saleh installs, Turner should find a home quickly.
(88) Las Vegas Raiders (via PIT) - LB Dylan Moses, Alabama - Once considered a potential top-10 pick, Moses has fallen off a bit, but the Raiders take a chance on him nonetheless.
(89) Detroit Lions (via LAR) - WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State - Detroit should probably consider hitting the wide receiver position multiple times in the draft. The cabinet is empty there.
(90) Cleveland Browns - LB Ventrell Miller, Florida - The Browns linebackers are a major weak spot. If Cleveland wants to contend for the division, adding some speed there in Miller would help.
(91) Minnesota Vikings (via BAL) - S Paris Ford, Pittsburgh - With S Anthony Harris likely headed elsewhere in free agency, the Vikings take a chance on the hard-hitting ford as a replacement.
(92) Cleveland Browns - EDGE Rashad Weaver, Pittsburgh - Back-to-back selections of Pitt Panthers here, Rashad is an excellent pass rusher to add into the mix.
(93) Green Bay Packers - DT Tommy Togiai, Ohio State - The Packers add some beef to the inside of their defense, hoping to solidify a shaky group outside of DT Kenny Clark.
(94) Buffalo Bills - iOL Josh Myers, Ohio State - The Bills grab a starting caliber lineman here in Myers, who should help bolster the interior of their offensive line and give a boost to their run game.
(95) Kansas City Chiefs - OT Jackson Carmen, Clemson - The Chiefs need another offensive tackle to throw into the mix, as neither Eric Fisher nor Mitchell Schwartz figure to be around for too much longer.
(96) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State - While Wilson didn't dominant as many expected him to in 2020, perhaps slotting him alongside Vita Vea will free up mismatches for him.
Compensatory Selections
(97) Los Angeles Chargers - G Quinn Meinerz, Wisconsin-Whitewater - Meinrez blew up the Senior Bowl, and could easily land as a top-100 prospect after that showing. LAC is a good fit here.
(98) Philadelphia Eagles - TE Brevin Jordan, Miami - With Zach Ertz and Philadelphia likely parting ways soon enough, Jordan gives the Eagles a gadget replacement in the passing game.
(99) Dallas Cowboys - CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State - Another corner for Dallas as they really could use two strong selections to help rebuild the position. Samuel excels in the slot.
(100) New Orleans Saints - WR Amari Rodgers, Clemson - The Saints add the best player on the board here for me, an exceptional wide out who will pair well with Michael Thomas.
(101) Tennessee Titans - DT Marlon Tuipulotu, USC - The Titans add another body to their defensive front, in hopes that Marlon and Simmons can become a dominant duo inside.
(102) Los Angeles Rams - WR Josh Imatorbhebhe, Illinois - One of the most underrated wide outs in the class, due to the lack of offensive savvy around him. Imatorbhebhe reminds me of Kenny Golladay, so pairing him with new Rams QB Matthew Stafford out to be fun.
(103) Minnesota Vikings - EDGE Jordan Smith, UAB - A long, toolsy pass rusher to develop into a sidekick for Danielle Hunter is the pick here for Mike Zimmer and co.
(104) San Francisco 49ers - OT Walker Little, Stanford - I'm certain the 49ers will bring back LT Trent Williams, but how much longer does he really have? Meanwhile, Little can play guard before taking over at left tackle soon enough.
(105) Los Angeles Rams - EDGE Shaka Toney, Penn State - Toney has good burst off the edge and with OLB Leonard Floyd headed towards the market, the Rams could stand to add some pass rushers.
(106) New Orleans Saints - RB Trey Sermon, Ohio State - With a cap crunch, paying $4 million for Latavius Murray may be a luxury the Saints cannot afford. Cutting him and drafting Sermon can offset that.

Fourth Round

Just a reminder, but almost half of all fourth-round selections (46%) are no longer on the roster after two years in their career, so don't take these picks too seriously, as this is also where teams start to diverge from needs a bit more and go best available. The aim is rotational players who might be contributors by their 3rd year with the franchise. If you have a significant need, fill it in free agency, not the day three of the draft. If you're banking on your team to find a starter here at a key position, you're already kind of screwed. Really I'm less focused on needs as opposed to getting good value here. Am trying to avoid doubling up on prospects, but sometimes teams actually do that.
(107) Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Tyler Shelvin, LSU (108) New York Jets - G David Moore, Grambling State (109) Atlanta Falcons - S Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State (110) Houston Texans - QB Jaime Newman, Georgia - The Texans don't draft a QB in the first, but do take a chance on Newman's upside to develop behind Bridgewater.
(111) Cleveland Browns - WR Seth Williams, Auburn (112) Cincinnati Bengals - S Jamien Sherwood, Auburn (113) Detroit Lions - EDGE Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma (114) Carolina Panthers - LB Baron Browning, Ohio State (115) Denver Broncos - RB Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State - With Lindsay hitting the market, maybe the Broncos don't bring him back and Jefferson as a change of pace back behind Gordon instead.
(116) Dallas Cowboys - TE Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame (117) New York Giants - RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Oklahoma - An excellent backup for Saquon Barkley if the Giants don't re-sign Wayne Gallman. (118) San Francisco 49ers - S James Wiggins, Cincinnati (119) Los Angeles Chargers - RB Demetric Falcon, UCLA (120) Minnesota Vikings - WR Dazz Newsome, North Carolina
(121) New England Patriots - WR Whop Philyor, Indiana (122) Las Vegas Raiders - G Sadarius Hutcherson, South Carolina (123) Houston Texans - WR Marlon Williams, UCF (124) Miami Dolphins - DT Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh (125) Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina - The Jags had a good year out of Sidney Jones, but still could use an intriguing developmental option like Mukuamu behind him.
(126) Minnesota Vikings - LB Pete Werner, Ohio State (127) Tennessee Titans - G Ben Cleveland, Georgia (128) Indianapolis Colts - WR Jaelon Darden, North Texas (129) Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Kary Vincent Jr., LSU - The Steelers get some excellent value here, as I think Vincent is one of the top slot corners in the draft. Could easily replace Hilton. (130) Seattle Seahawks - CB Shakur Brown, Michigan State
(131) Jacksonville Jaguars - LB Monty Rice, Georgia (132) Baltimore Ravens - iOL Trey Hill, Georgia (133) Cleveland Browns - TE Cary Angeline, North Carolina State (134) New Orleans Saints - EDGE Tarron Jackson, Coastal Carolina - With Trey Hendrickson likely departing and Marcus Davenport still yet to hit double-digit sacks, the Saints may look to add another piece to develop here. (135) Minnesota Vikings - RB Khalil Herbert, Virginia Tech
(136) Green Bay Packers - OT James Hudson, Cincinnati (137) Kansas City Chiefs - LB Anthony Hines III, Texas A&M - A quick linebacker, he'd fit nicely into the Chiefs defense alongside Willie Gay and others. (138) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - QB Davis Mills, Stanford (139) New England Patriots - EDGE Adetokunbo Ogundeji, Notre Dame (140) Dallas Cowboys - S Ar'Darius Washington, TCU
(141) Los Angeles Rams - TE Tre McKitty, Georgia (142) Pittsburgh Steelers - DT Darius Stills, West Virginia (143) Green Bay Packers - RB Kylin Hill, Mississippi State - With Aaron Jones hitting the market, the Packers may look for another back to add to their rotation. Hill would be a great addition. (144) Kansas City Chiefs - CB Roger McCreary, Auburn (145) New England Patriots - OT Cordell Volson, North Dakota State

Fifth Round

(146) Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Brady Christensen, BYU (147) New York Jets - DL Brenton Cox, Florida (148) Houston Texans - EDGE Jonathan Cooper, Ohio State (149) Atlanta Falcons - EDGE Kingsley Enagbare, South Carolina - PFF actually lists Enagbare as a top-100 player on their latest big board, which, if accurate, would be tremendous value. (150) Cincinnati Bengals - WR Anthony Schwartz, Auburn
(151) Philadelphia Eagles - CB Robert Rochell, Central Arkansas - Big fan of Rochell's a potential starter down the road. Would fit well with Marcus Gannon calling the defense. (152) Carolina Panthers - G Kendrick Green, Illinois (153) Denver Broncos - QB Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (154) Detroit Lions - CB Kelvin Joseph, Kentucky (155) New York Jets - S Caden Sterns, Texas
(156) San Francisco 49ers - CB Camryn Bynum, California (157) Philadelphia Eagles - OT Adrian Ealy, Oklahoma (158) Minnesota Vikings - CB Rodarius Williams, Oklahoma State (159) New England Patriots - DT Milton Williams, Louisiana Tech (160) Los Angeles Chargers - WR Simi Fehoko, Stanford
(161) Arizona Cardinals - RB Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State - He'd be an excellent fit in the Cardinals backfield, especially if Kenyan Drake does not return. (162) Buffalo Bills - CB Tay Gowan, UCF (163) Las Vegas Raiders - QB Feleipe Franks, Arkansas (164) Washington Football Team - WR Jonathan Adams Jr., Arkansas State (165) Chicago Bears - CB D.J. Daniel, Georgia
(166) Indianapolis Colts - OT Brendan Jaimes, Nebraska (167) Tennessee Titans - OLB Charles Snowden, Virginia (168) Seattle Seahawks - OT Dan Moore Jr., Texas A&M (169) Baltimore Ravens - QB Sam Ehlinger, Texas - Unless the Ravens are certain that Trace McSorley is their backup QB, they may want to look at adding Ehlinger behind Lamar. (170) Cleveland Browns - LB Tony Fields II, West Virginia
(171) Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Tamorrion Terry, Florida State (172) Minnesota Vikings - QB Ian Book, Notre Dame (173) San Francisco 49ers - iOL Drake Jackson, Kentucky (174) Green Bay Packers - CB Ambry Thomas, Michigan (175) Buffalo Bills - S Reed Blankenship, Middle Tennessee State
(176) Kansas City Chiefs - EDGE Malcolm Koonce, Buffalo (177) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - LB Garrett Wallow, Texas Christian (178) Green Bay Packers - S Tyree Gillespie, Missouri (179) Atlanta Falcons - C James Empey, BYU - The Falcons find themselves a quality interior lineman who could use a year to develop before getting in the mix to replace Alex Mack down the road. (180) Dallas Cowboys - WR Josh Palmer, Tennessee
(181) Baltimore Ravens - S Qwynterrio Cole, Alcorn State (182) San Francisco 49ers - WR Marquez Stevenson, Houston (183) Kansas City Chiefs - RB Pooka Williams, Kansas

Sixth Round

(184) Tennessee Titans - QB Shane Buechele, Texas (185) New York Jets - LB Paddy Fisher, Northwestern (186) Atlanta Falcons - G Aaron Banks, Notre Dame - Love the value here for the Falcons, and if they do have to cut James Carpenter, Banks could be a useful piece. (187) Houston Texans - iOL Jack Anderson, Texas Tech (188) Philadelphia Eagles - S JaCoby Stevens, LSU (189) Cincinnati Bengals - DT Khryis Tonga, BYU (190) Denver Broncos - DT Bobby Brown III, Texas A&M
(191) Dallas Cowboys - G Josh Sills, Oklahoma State (192) Carolina Panthers - DT Carlo Kemp, Michigan (193) San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Daelin Hayes - The 49ers showed a good deal of interest in Hayes at the Senior Bowl per reports. He'd be a nice depth option on the edge. (194) New England Patriots - CB Benjamin St.-Juste, Minnesota (195) New York Giants - CB Thomas Graham Jr., Oregon
(196) New England Patriots - G Tristen Hoge, BYU (197) Los Angeles Chargers - S Eric Burrell, Wisconsin (198) Minnesota Vikings - OT Alex Himmelman, Illinois State (199) Las Vegas Raiders - PICK FORFEITED (200) New York Giants - LB K.J. Britt, Auburn
(201) Houston Texans - DL Cameron Sample, Tulane (202) Las Vegas Raiders - WR Austin Watkins, UAB (203) Chicago Bears - OT Bryce Matthews, Ole Miss (204) Los Angeles Chargers - WR Isaiah McKoy, Kent State (205) Indianapolis Colts - WR Damon Hazelton, Missouri - This stretch of wide receivers looks like solid value, especially Hazelton in Reich's offense.
(206) Miami Dolphins - TE Kenny Yeboah, Ole Miss - Yeboah got to work with Miami's coaching staff at the Senior Bowl, so I'd imagine they have a good feel for his use. (207) Seattle Seahawks - DT Mustafa Johnson, Colorado (208) Los Angeles Rams - OT Robert Hainsey, Notre Dame (209) Baltimore Ravens - G Robert Jones, Middle Tennessee State (210) Cleveland Browns - CB Trill Williams, Syracuse
(211) Houston Texans - RB Jaret Patterson, Buffalo (212) Buffalo Bills - RB Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana (213) Green Bay Packers - WR Cade Johnson, South Dakota State (214) Pittsburgh Steelers - C Jimmy Morrissey, Pittsburgh (215) Tennessee Titans - S Aashari Crosswell, Arizona State
(216) Atlanta Falcons - LB Derrick Barnes, Purdue (217) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TE Quintin Morris, Bowling Green (218) Atlanta Falcons - OT Greg Eiland, Mississippi State (219) Philadelphia Eagles - RB Javian Hawkins, Louisville (220) Chicago Bears - EDGE Chris Rumph Jr., Duke
(221) Green Bay Packers - DE William King-Bradley, Baylor (222) Chicago Bears - S Shawn Davis, Florida (223) Minnesota Vikings - G Ben Brown, Ole Miss (224) Philadelphia Eagles - LB Grant Stuard, Houston

Seventh Round

(225) Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Malik Herring, Georgia (226) San Francisco 49ers - TE Noah Gray, Duke (227) Houston Texans - CB Tre Brown, Oklahoma (228) Chicago Bears - LB Justin Hilliard, Ohio State (229) Cincinnati Bengals - EDGE Elerson Smith, Northern Iowa (230) Philadelphia Eagles - WR Ben Skowronek, Northwestern
(231) Cincinnati Bengals - DT TaQuon Graham, Texas (232) Buffalo Bills - S Divine Deablo, Virginia Tech (233) Denver Broncos - S Damar Hamlin, Pittsburgh (234) Green Bay Packers - LB Riley Cole, South Alabama (235) Denver Broncos - WR Cornell Powell, Clemson
(236) San Francisco 49ers - WR Frank Darby, Arizona State (237) Los Angeles Chargers - DB Darrin Hall, San Diego State (238) Minnesota Vikings - WR Trevon Grimes, Florida (239) New England Patriots - DE Wyatt Hubert, Kansas State (240) Arizona Cardinals - OT Jaylon Moore, Western Michigan
(241) Washington Football Team - G Jake Curhan, California (242) Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Bryan Mills, North Carolina Central (243) Washington Football Team - RB Chris Evans, Michigan (244) Las Vegas Raiders - CB Mark Webb, Georgia (245) Indianapolis Colts - RB Larry Roundtree, Missouri
(246) Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Forrest Merrill, Arkansas State (247) New York Jets - WR Tre Walker, (248) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Joshua Kaindoh, Florida State (249) Los Angeles Rams - CB Bryce Thompson, Tennessee (250) Cleveland Browns - QB Brady White, Memphis
(251) Denver Broncos - EDGE Patrick Johnson, Tulane (252) New Orleans Saints - PICK FORFEITED (253) Green Bay Packers - DT Jack Heflin, Northern Illinois (254) Cleveland Browns - CB Nahshon Wright, Oregon State (255) Kansas City Chiefs - DT Kobie Whiteside, Missouri (256) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Desmond Fitzpatrick, Louisville
You'll notice there are no special teams listed...mostly because I don't have a clue who needs a K/P/LS. That actually might be something useful to mention if you're team really needs someone.
Feel free to comment...I won't really be looking at them until next week, as I've spent too much time putting this together and now I need a break from this website. Just don't be a d*** is all I ask. It's shockingly hard for some people when it comes to internet mock drafts. Did this for fun, hope you had fun reading it.

Game Information

Game Title: Destruction AllStars
Platforms:

• PlayStation 5 (Feb 2, 2021)

Trailers:

• Destruction AllStars - Mayhem Starts Now Launch Trailer l PS5
• Destruction AllStars - Gameplay Trailer l PS5
• Destruction AllStars - Announcement Trailer | PS5

Developer: Luicid Games
Publisher: Sony Interactive Entertainment
Review Aggregator:
OpenCritic - 69 average - 35% recommended - 18 reviews

Critic Reviews

Ars Technica - Sam Machkovech - Unscored

The good outweighs the bad. Get a PlayStation Plus trial and give this imperfect car-combat gem a spin.

Chicas Gamers - Estela Villa - Spanish - Unscored

Destruction AllStars is a destruction derby with frenetic gameplay and a good foundation for future growth. If you like the style of play, it will give you hours and hours of fun and we hope that over time more game modes will come. A novel bet by Lucid Games that with time could become the next Rocket League.

Critical Hit - Darryn Bonthuys - 7.5 / 10

Destruction AllStars is both new and familiar, but it's a refreshing collection of cars, modes, and madcap driving that shows great promise for the future. A mental destruction derby with some admittedly annoying quirks, there's plenty of charm under the hood of this game that respects your time and smashes into the competition with a gung-ho attitude and some novel ideas.

Daily Star - Tom Hutchison - 4 / 5 stars

Destruction AllStars is a brilliant new addition to the PS5 roster and will brighten up dull February with some colourful car-smashing fun.

DualShockers - Peter Szpytek - 7.5 / 10

Destruction AllStars made me feel like a kid playing with Hot Wheels, it's just a shame how often it falls off the tracks.

Eurogamer - Wesley Yin-Poole - No Recommendation / Blank

In desperate need of depth and content, Destruction AllStars is at least a fun whiz around the corner.

Explosion Network - Dylan Blight - 7 / 10

Hopefully, there's an injection of skins and other items to chase over the next month, and it'll be able to sustain a long-term player base. I'd love to be part of that group as I'm enjoying smashing into cars like never before, but the game needs a better progression system.

Game Informer - Jeff Cork - 8 / 10

Destruction AllStars' frantic blend of bumper-car and on-foot action offers plenty of short-term fun, but the thrills are less thrilling after a few hours

GameCrate - Angelo D'Argenio - 9 / 10

Destruction AllStars may not be a killer app that sells you on a PS5, but anyone who owns a PS5 will be happy to add it to their library. It is definitely one of the best perks of owning a PS5 yet.

GamePro - Hannes Rossow - German - 78 / 100

Destruction AllStars offers innovative multiplayer action without interruptions, but monetization stands in the way of the game itself.

Hobby Consolas - Daniel Quesada - Spanish - 75 / 100

This new PS5 exclusive offers some amusing ideas while taking advantage of the superior hardware, but it's too shallow in content and uses some greedy strategies. Future updates could change the situation, though.

Metro GameCentral - GameCentral - 5 / 10

A fun, uncomplicated romp that's a great way to relax for 20 minutes or so. Beyond that though it struggles to entertain, especially given the grubby approach to microtransactions.

PPE.pl - Matthew Sparrow - Polish - 5.5 / 10

Lucid Games didn't take care of immersive modes or extensive vehicle controls, which creeps into the monotony. The visuals itself will not be the title on the pedestal.

PlayStation Universe - Joe Apsey - 5 / 10

Destruction AllStars is a clunky mess of a multiplayer experience, committing a few cardinal sins when it comes to its online experience and offering uninteresting and dull gameplay most of the time. Each character feels unique and their abilities and vehicles are fun to use, but when meshed with the rest of the experience, it doesn't work. Predatory microtransactions, a lack of lore and backstory into the AllStars, and poor single-player offerings make this the weakest PlayStation Studios title in a long time.

Push Square - Stephen Tailby - 6 / 10

Destruction AllStars can be a brilliantly frantic multiplayer game, with fun characters and cars, great DualSense feedback, and entertaining modes. However, it can ring a little hollow at times when the action dips. Lacklustre customisation options and mictrotransaction-locked content doesn't help matters, but when everything is playing out smoothly, this is more than capable of giving you a good time. Currently free to PS Plus members, it's well worth taking for a spin.

Shacknews - TJ Denzer - 8 / 10

As far as gameshow/sporting event-style games go, Destruction AllStars is maybe some of the most fun I’ve had in a while. I love the pageantry when a match starts and my character does their intro before kicking things off. The visuals are smooth and pristine throughout the fast-paced action and the gameplay in different modes is absolutely delightful. I would like the foot game to be boosted a bit, and it desperately needs some better cosmetics and an easy-access Mute All function, but there’s an absolutely enthralling foundation here in Destruction AllStars. I want to see more characters, more arenas, events… I want to see where Destruction AllStars goes in the long run and I’ll be happy to keep playing as we work our way there.

TheGamer - Sam Watanuki - 2 / 5 stars

I wanted to love Destruction AllStars. I still do. There’s just not enough there to make it worth my while right now. A couple of times, I ran into a weird technical issue where I would jump into a brand-new car, but it just wouldn’t move. I think that issues like this can certainly be fixed in a future patch, though. I also know that the development team of Lucid Games has a year’s-worth of content planned for the game. As such, although I can’t recommend playing Destruction AllStars right now, I do have high hopes for the future of the game. Especially since the car combat genre is ripe for the taking with no new Twisted Metal in sight.

TheSixthAxis - Jim Hargreaves - 6 / 10

The car combat genre has long been out of fashion and still has a way to go if it wants to take us back to its glory days of the 1990s. Destruction AllStars is a mostly satisfying modernisation that has some neat ideas and looks fantastic, though ultimately spins its tyres on repetitive rival-wrecking gameplay and a lack of truly worthwhile content at launch.

Use a Potion - Daryl Leach - 8 / 10

Destruction AllStars’ chaotic vehicular-based combat makes for an exhilarating (and surprisingly strategic) experience that I’ve had a blast playing – I just hope that it gets enough post-launch content and support to keep players coming back for more.
As it stands though, it’s certainly a heck of a lot of fun to play. Sure, there’s some inconsistencies in its scoring here and there and the arenas themselves lack imaginative flair, but between its colourful cast, it’s satisfyingly destructive driving, and its slick visuals, there really is a whole lot to like about Destruction AllStars frantic showdowns.

Greeting Theta Gang boys and girls,
I hope you're well and not bankrupt after last week. I'm just now recovering mentally myself. I saw a few WSB converts and some newbies asking for tips, so here you go. V2 of my Options guide. I hope it helps.
​
I spent a huge amount of time learning about options and tried to distill my knowledge down into a helpful guide. This should especially be useful for newbies and growing options traders.
While I feel I’m a successful trader, I'm not a guru and my advice is not meant to be gospel, but this will hopefully be a good starting point, teach you a lot, and make you a better trader. I plan to keep typing up more info from my notebook, expanding this guide, and posting it every couple months.
Any feedback or additions are appreciated
Per requests, I added details of good and bad trades I made. Some painful lessons learned are now included. I also tried to organize this better as it got longer.
Here's what I tell options beginners:
I would strongly recommend buying a beginner's options book and read it cover to cover. That helped me a lot.
I like this beginner book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GWSXX8U/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_OxNDFb2GK9YW7
Helpful websites:

• Tasty Trade (TT) and Ally Invest have helpful articles and videos.
  • https://www.tastytrade.com/tt
  • https://www.youtube.com/c/tastytrade1/featured
• Ally training:
  • What is options trading? https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/investing/trading-options-for-beginners/?CP=EM2012111
  • Top 10 options mistakes: https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/investing/top-10-option-trading-mistakes/?CP=EM2012111
• 3 common option mistakes: https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/library/options/common-mistakes-options-traders-make
• Common options strategies: https://www.optionsbro.com/basic-options-strategies/
• Investopedia has tons of great investing info for stocks and options: https://www.investopedia.com/
• Kamikaze Cash Theta Gang Videos: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOweupE79XXiBaeH_xBpkUcYUsrAaKQen
• 20 rules of professional traders: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/022715/20-rules-followed-professional-traders.asp

Don't trade until you understand:

• You can lose your entire contract value when buying.
• You can lose a lot of money when selling "naked", theoretically unlimited.
• How option expiration works.
• Theta (decay) and how it works. This is imperative since it's attrition when buying and a payout when selling. https://www.optionseducation.org/advancedconcepts/theta
• DTE: Days till expiration/expiry
• Options positions with respect to price:
  • ITM: In the money; strike is below stock value. Signif
  • ATM: At the money; strike is just at or above the stock value, often very highly traded. Can be very effective with moderate - long term expiry.
  • NTM: Near the money; strike is above the stock value, but fairly close. Slightly unofficial term.
  • OTM: Out of the money; price is at least a few strikes from the current stock price. I would say 10-30% over stock price.
  • Very OTM: Not a real definition, this is essentially a lottery ticket. Cheap, but almost certain to expire worthless unless there is explosive movement.
• Understand delta in general and how delta changes with ITM and OTM options.
• Understand all the greeks at a high level, as you get better understand them well. The greeks: https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/option-greeks/
• IV, IV crush, and how IV affects pricing. In general, you want to sell when IV is high and buy when the IV is low. Increasing IV is good for held calls/puts. IV drop or crush is generally good for sellers.
• Selling options can be quite beneficial. Once you have a good general understanding, lookup thetagang . Kamikaze Cash has good youtube videos on most theta strategies (linked above). I personally believe selling options (especially cash secured) is much safer and can consistently make you profits. Θ Gang 4 life.
• FOMO and how to avoid chasing a dangerous trend. DO NOT CHASE FROM FOMO!
• What intrinsic and extrinsic value are. Know how they are affected by being exercised/assigned and how theta affects them.
• Understand that some of WSB recommendations are straight up high-risk gambling and factor in the information accordingly. Be careful with Meme stocks and the survivorship bias on YOLO plays. However, I love the sub and think it’s hilarious. It has a lot of valuable information / DD if you are comfortable with the “colorful” language. It’s also great if you like rocket ship emojis.

Basics / Mechanics

• Understand the 4 "main" option types. Buying or selling a call and buying or selling a put. Spreads and more complex multi-legged option strategies are based off these in some way (see below)
• You can sell calls with 100 shares of stock or if you own an underlying longer term option; see LEAPS and PMCCs later. Selling calls naked is incredibly risky and often requires Level 4 (very advanced) permissions and usually a lot of capital. I will literally never sell calls naked since I don't want to ruin my life and end up living in a dumpster eating saltine crackers.
• Puts can be sold/written cash covered (cash secured), which means you have the cash in your account to buy 100 shares. Your broker will put this money on hold until the trade is closed. Puts can be sold "naked" using Margin and Level 3 (with most brokers). Your broker will hold a percentage of cost of 100 shares (often 30-40%, 100% on meme stocks) allowing you to sell more puts. This increases your available capital/power as well as increasing risk.

General Tips and Ideas:

• Don't EVER leave (short) spreads open on expiration day, close them. (more details below)
• Start off trading very small. Slowly build up over weeks / months. You need to get accustomed to a fifty dollar swing a day, then a few hundred, then a few thousand. You need to ensure you don't get emotional (see below). I started trading options with 5k, then 25k, 50k, and later over 100k. I added my own funds over time and used my gains to build my account. Don’t go all in immediately, that’s dangerous and unwise.
• Especially as you build up the amount of money you have invested, keep it diversified among several stocks.
  • Don't go all in on one thing, ever. Be able to take a hit from one stock and not mortally wound your portfolio.
  • A company may be doing great, then there's a major product issue out of nowhere. If you are overexposed in one stock this can really hurt you.
  • I had to roll options I sold that were about to expire completely worthless because FDX's CEO changed and the stock took a hard dip.
• Don't trade emotionally. If you realize you are emotionally trading for vengeance, you should probably exit the trade and cool off for several days with that stock. Same if you get caught up in a wave of hysteria.
• Have a plan for every trade, ideally with entries / exits that are specific values, ranges, or a set condition. This helps remove emotions. This is super important for strong movements and high volatility (see later).
• Use an options profit calculator from your broker or an online one before entering a "new" trade, especially a complex multi legged trade: https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/
• “Rolling” an option: Closing your existing option and opening a similar one at different strike and/or expiration.
  • Rolling a call “Up” would be selling a call you own and buying a cheaper call at a higher strike.
  • Rolling a put “Down and out” closes your original one and buying or selling one at a lower strike at a longer expiry.
  • Better broker interfaces have a literal “Roll” button. I know E-trade does. You can manually do it by selecting relevant contract legs.
• If you have a losing trade, re-evaluate it. If your initial assumption is definitely incorrect, close it. Don't stay in losing trades forever and lose the entire value of the option over stubbornness. If you re-evaluate and you think your assumption was right, hold, potentially consider adding another cheaper option (or buy another call / put). Rolling out sold options can help here.
• Don't try to day trade, especially with options. It's statistically unlikely to be profitable. Day-trading with options introduces extra liquidity risks and is dangerous, especially with spreads.
• Try not to over-trade, you'll likely mis-time the market over time. When I get emotional I over trade, then lose additional money on wash sales. If you scale your entries into positions it should help alleviate your desire to exit positions when they turn badly against you. Whenever I buy calls I do it at larger increments after W almost made me loss my hair; luckily it eventually came back.
• NEVER enter a position on a stock you have no idea about, especially when you read about it online or heard about it from some rando.
• At market open options contracts are often volatile and inflated. Buying during this time can be more expensive. Options are usually cheaper mid-day, I read somewhere 2-3PM is cheapest. I’ve had success around 12-1PM EST after prices settle.
• Try wheeling on cheaper stocks once you get all fundamentals down.
• When selling puts if you are very bullish consider "doubling down"; note this is higher risk. Use the credit from your put sale to buy shares or a cheap call. This can be roughly inversed with puts, except I wouldn't ever recommend shorting shares.
• Learn from your mistakes. You can’t go back in time and beating yourself up (to a point) is useless. Make a physical &/or mental note of it so you don’t do it again. If you don’t learn from it, then beat yourself up so you won’t do it again.
• If you have friends that like to trade, I find it helpful to discuss strategies and planned plays. I talk openly with my close friends about my current holdings and planned trades, it helps keep me accountable. If I get a wide-eyed look, I might be doing something excessively risky or stupid. I’ve over-leveraged myself in calls twice and I knew I shouldn’t have done it both times. When I tell my friends what I did and I’m embarrassed, it exemplifies the face that I shouldn’t have done it in the first place. You will also get ideas for new strategies or plays from them. It’s good to stay versatile and use multiple strategies when appropriate. Beware of group think/echo chambers.
• I recommend NEVER telling someone what to buy/sell and when. I’ll tell people MY plays or what I like and why, but I will not encourage them to emulate what I do. Depending on the audience, I’ll tell them my exact positions along with my exit and entrance strategy. With closer friends I’ll offer my thoughts on their trades (if asked). If my friend is doing something really risky (one of my friends does some scary stuff) I may ask them if they want my advice, and provide it, especially if they overlooked a risk/event. I will not encourage someone to execute/enter a trade since it has a high potential for hurt feelings or animosity all around.
• Don’t fall in love with a stock. Just because something made you money before and you have high confidence in it doesn’t mean it will keep performing. I joke that FDX betrayed me when it started dipping and losing me money. I was over-confident of its bounce-back and sold too many puts too quickly. I’m in several losing trades because of it. However, I will keep good stocks in my rostetracking list or try different strategies or re-enter trades when they change their behavior.
• As you start to both buy and sell options and get more experience in general, you'll start seeing the two sides to every trade. You will likely start adjusting your strategies or trying new trades out because of this. Things will likely click one day. Most/all the greeks and options concepts will become almost second nature. For me this was when I could build an Iron Condor from scratch, which was a watershed moment involving a good understanding of many strategies.
• Understand Liquidity and volume.
  • Trading in low volume, low open interest contracts results in wide bid/ask spreads and difficulty having your contracts filled. Look at all the data for a contract, not just the strike and price.
  • Monthly Expiration dates typically have better liquidity.
  • Multi-legged trades (Common examples are 2-legged vertical spreads or 4-legged iron condors) have more difficulty being filled, especially on bad brokers like Robin Hood. Having very liquid options for all legs is extremely helpful in obtaining timely and well-priced fills, which maximize your potential profits.
• Time in market vs timing the market:
  • It is extremely difficult to time the market perfectly. If you wait for the perfect opportunity forever, history has proven you will miss out on gains. Keeping all your money out of the market has proven to be ineffective. Now if there is something serious happening with a stock/the market (like say a new pandemic), don’t go all in. I recommend entering incrementally at dips. If the stock has huge upside potential it may never go down, so it might make sense to partially enter at the current price.
  • IMIO selling puts is a great strategy to get into a stock you like, or at least make money off it. I think buying stock in lots of 100 is usually for suckers. Selling an ATM or ITM put (assuming the math works out) on a stock you were going to buy and hold is ALMOST free money.
  • I recommend keeping some cash available regardless. If you have a very large account or expect a downturn, hedging with indexes like QQQ, SPY, or VIX or calls/puts may be wise.
• Every trade can't be a winner. You will take some losses, you must get used to it. I don’t like having a realized loss of 1K or more on any trade. However, this will happen, especially with larger accounts.
  • As long as you win more often and beat the S&P that year I consider it okay. I’m kind of aggressive, so I consider 20%+ annually good. 30%+ annually is great. 40%+ and I’m dancing. After trading options I am almost baffled by my old belief that 5% annual returns (mostly from dividend ETFs) was “good”. That’s nothing to me now since I’m willing to take risks. Note: While lots of people danced in 2020, realize that’s an insane Bull Run year and is atypical.
  • Adhere to your own risk tolerance and never over-extend yourself, especially with margin use. Don’t make huge gambles leaving you uncomfortable. Only gamble with money you are willing to lose.
  • My personal strategy is to make safer gains for the year and then enter slightly riskier strategies using those gains. I can be slightly-moderately more aggressive and compound my gains. For me I often sell puts to make money, then when I see a big opportunity I’ll sell a put and buy an OTM or moderately ITM call.
• Understand it’s not safe to try and get rich overnight. However, once you hit big “steps” things may start to snowball. You can enter more positions and take more risks if you choose to.
  • For me this when I hit 50k, then 100k. I was able to balance low and moderate risk positions to more significantly grow my account. I’ll even do a high risk thing now and again because my gains can absorb it (assuming I have them).
  • I can’t wait to get to 250K, then 500K. I know it’ll take quite a long time, but I am confident I’ll eventually be able to have 500K and (hopefully) 1M in my non-401k trading account with gains and additions from my job. I can only imagine how “dangerous” I will be with that kind of capital.
• If you missed "the next big thing" like AAPL, TSLA, or the time machine I’m building in my basement. Don't get upset, learn from it. Adapt and become a better trader for next time.
  • Figure out why a company was so promising, before they mooned. Determine how you would have traded differently in hindsight. Apply those lessons to the next company you believe has long term growth prospects.
  • For me that's putting in 1-2.5k towards shares and/or buying LEAPS on it. Depending on my bullishness I may buy “cheap”, fairly far OTM calls. The far OTM options are sort of lottery tickets. If I'm right the (relatively) low cost will have explosive profits; if I'm wrong, they didn't cost that much so it's a calculated loss I’m willing to accept. For more serious bets I’ll buy ITM LEAPS to run PMCCs on. I also like to buy 1-2K in my 401k for very long-term plays.
• The stock market hates uncertainty, it seems to crave the status quo. A shakeup can potential tank a stock, even if it's nothing. With shares you can wait it out, but this can be problematic for options. If you see volatile/uncertain times ahead (politics, disease, manufacturing, earnings, etc.), you might want to reduce your overall portfolio risks or hedge.

Profit Retention / Loss Mitigation

• If selling options, it is a viable strategy to close early after a large gain with many DTE left until expiry. See TT videos / strategies on this.
• Don't hold options through earnings unless you literally want to gamble. I like playing on earnings run ups, but that can be risky.
• If you hold options through earnings, IV crush will happen immediately afterwards, devaluing the option. However, if the option is profitable enough, IV crush won’t matter, which will still make money for a call buyer. A sold put sufficiently far OTM will benefit from IV crush, even if the stock dips after slightly bad or lukewarm earnings.
• Don't throw good money after bad. Don't gamble on a recovery if your assumption appears to be wrong or the market is flat out tanking. If you are wrong and still believe in the company, wait twice as long as your original plan (wait for your 2nd entry point vs 1st) before adding to your position.
• Consider using stop losses to lock-in profits on rides up or sometimes use them to prevent losses. Note, stops can be easily triggered in volatile options. Now when I'm up a lot on calls (especially around earnings or large momentum run-ups) I always set stop losses. I have been burned too many times. In December 2020 I didn't set a SL on several thousand dollars of FDX calls I was already up on and I "lost" ~$5K of unrealized gains. If you're up big, don't get too greedy.
• A possible strategy if a stock is on a tear and you have multiple options open: Close some positions (I prefer to do this incrementally if the stock has momentum), but leave 1+ open in case the stock goes into outer space/the floor. Next, set a stop loss with a little buffer below its current movement / range so it doesn't get hit unless the stock falls hard. Finally, watch the stock closely and if it keeps rising, keep moving the stop loss up in little bits incrementally. This will let you keep more profits on a hot streak, but give some protection and secure more gains. It will also help eliminate FOMO if a stock exceeds your expectations.
• Have rules when to roll out, down & out, or up & out. I like TT’s roll at break even or at 1x loss and to always roll for a credit (or for me a very minor cost). Obviously these rules need some monitoring. Know your stocks, the news, and technicals so you don’t jump the gun.
  • If you roll early for a credit and you’re right, it’s not the end of the world. You’ll just need to hold longer, which will obviously tie up capital. Sometimes it’s better to tie up some money (especially if you aren’t paying interest) than eating a huge loss.
  • Rolling too late can be worse though. I currently have a very underwater FDX put I sold that is over 2x loss, rolling it does almost nothing unless you want to pay a debit or extend it extremely far out.
• On huge options gains, I strongly you recommend taking profits by rolling up/down or incrementally sell your contracts at several different prices (this is why having multiple contracts is nice).
  • Rolling up involves selling your initial call, then using a fraction of your proceeds to buy a cheaper, further OTM call with the same expiry; puts are inverse this. When rolling up I like to ensure the new option’s cost is 15-40% of my realized gains. I’ll buy a more or less expensive new optoin based on my convication to the stock and predicted movements. You can also roll up and out to get a further expiry and strike.
  • This is monumentally important if you are playing with incredibly high rising stocks or during a short squeeze.
  • Sad story time: I completely screwed up when I forgot to roll up, twice, during the GME gamma/short squeeze. I didn’t take my own advice; I didn’t have a real exit or transition plan and I got emotional. It all happened so fast and I was at work; the insanity of the run up and subsequent gamma squeeze caught me off guard. I should’ve clocked out and thought through the situation for 15-30 minutes to form an impromptu plan, then executed trade(s). My moderate risk tolerance coupled with my desire to take profits took over. When the stock partially cratered after a run up, I sold to retain gains. In the heat of the moment I thought the squeeze was squoze and it was going to plummet into the ground and I wasn’t being rational.
    • On 1x 4K call I would’ve made an additional 15-25K if I rolled up to a cheaper contract with some of my profits.
    • I know I missed out on significantly more with a 2nd call I had. Depending when I rolled it, it would likely have been an additional 25-50k in profits.
  • I talked about learning from your mistakes above. This mistake is branded into my brain due to the massive gains I missed out on by not rolling up. I’m furious with myself as I write this 1 week after the GME gamma squeeze, I’m a planner and I didn’t plan. If anything I own is significantly up ever again, I’m rolling up (or at least setting a stop loss). If necessary, I’ll roll up a trade multiple times to keep extracting profits.
  • Learn from my mistake so you don’t miss out on gains too. I strongly recommend rolling up when you are up big on a call / roll down when you are up big on a put. This enables you to take profits, stay in the game, and keep extracting more gains.
• If you trade a lot of options, talk to your broker about a discount. I was getting the standard $.50/contract with E-Trade, but I traded over 300 contracts a quarter and was able to get the fee reduced by over $.10 by just asking. I am now doing more spreads and condors, so once my volume gets very high, I’ll ask again.
• If you have a broker that isn’t great and you want to switch, leverage your current trading fees to the new broker. Tell them you’ll move over $### thousand if they beat your current options trading fee per contract.

Trade Planning & Position Management Tips

• As you gain experience, start monitoring what kind of Delta, OTM, DTE, etc. you are most profitable with. Use it in your future trades. You'll often see the tasty trade 30-45DTE .3 Delta strategy for selling.
• Before entering a trade, look at rough technicals like resistances and supports to consider your relevant strikes as well as entry/exit points. Look at upcoming earnings & dividend dates as well as stock/market news.
• Consider staggering strikes and expirations for safety and diversity; it’s nice to avoid assignment on 3 puts at once because you used the same strike for all 3.
• Incrementally enter positions on large rises/falls. One of my favor strategies is to buy dips after over reactions. By doing this slowly in large price "steps" it helps combat FOMO and helps you avoid getting slaughtered.
  • This will also help you avoid "chasing a falling knife". It also ties into having a plan.
  • I set alerts at several predetermined prices and I REALLY try not to enter new trades unless I hit my preset points. It makes me less emotional and usually more effective.
• Don't buy far expiration options with poor liquidity for shorter term plays. I bought 1x GME 1-year+ LEAPS call before the 2021 short squeeze. That was stupid, I should've bought 2-3x 60-120 day calls to have better liquidity. I also paper-handed it and missed out on my lambo.
• If selling options, consider rolling (for a credit) to avoid assignment when it makes sense / meets your plan. Rolling closer to expiration can be a valid strategy to get theta on your side. On the flip side, if the stock moons or plummets it could've been better to roll before it got crazy deep ITM. See rolling “rules” above.
• Covered Calls:
  • If a stock has a large movement range, I think it can be worthwhile to wait to open a CC after the last one is closed/expires. I have been more successful waiting for another opportunity vs. opening one immediately on the Monday after the second the last one expires.
  • Consider selling covered calls at all time highs/peaks. If you sell a CC and the stock dips significantly, and you think it’s temporary, you can buy to close your CC for a quick profit, then reopen it later.
  • If you own Meme stocks, selling covered calls runs the risk of missing out on large gains. On these stocks I typically only sell them further OTM than I normally would or not at all. If I do sell CC on a Meme stock I try to ensure I have 25-100 other shares that won’t be called away.

-Advanced Beginner-
Spreads

• Spreads (with 2 legs) are neat because they manipulate how delta and theta act. It caps your gains and losses, but you can profit with less stock movement. Try several spreads on a P/L calculator to see for yourself.
• Spreads usually require margin trading.
• Spreads allow you to define max losses (assuming you close before expiration day) and use less capital.
  • Experienced traders will open many spreads at identical/similar strikes to heavily profit off movement. Spreads can make you/lose you a lot of money if you are right.
  • For example. I could make a $200 premium off a $500 risk trade, max loss would be $300. This is much more effective capital utilization than a naked or cash secured put, however it does not have the same downside protection or “wheel” potential as a sold put. Higher risk, higher reward.
• Vertical Debit spreads: I think of these like mini calls/puts. I personally don’t use them unless calls are outrageously expensive or the break even is absurdly high, but there’s nothing wrong with them. A call debit spread will lower your breakeven and overall cost vs just a call. You can do clever things like making a positive theta call spread if you’re creative. I like doing this since I hate losing money to theta.
• Vertical Credit spreads:
  • Very good theta strategy to define downside/upside risks.
  • A put credit spread is bullish and allows you to bet on upward movement with less capital and defined losses.
  • A call credit spread is a bearish strategy that allows you to bet on downward movement. These are very cool since they allow you to sell calls without selling naked calls, which can ruin you financially. I see selling these as better than buying puts since it’s so much easier to be profitable; to be redundant, Θ rocks.
  • https://www.schwab.com/resource-centeinsights/content/reducing-risk-with-credit-spread-options-strategy-0
• I repeat this on purpose: Don't EVER leave short spreads open on expiration day, close them. If you don't close, they better be VERY far from the strike on a non-volatile stock. In after hours a stock can jump/dip below your strike and be exercised without the other leg to protect you. This can lead to massive, life ruining losses. This is not an exaggeration, google this and be scared. It happened to a fair number of people with TSLA. Video explanation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtVFj9nRRDo&t=315s
• Short Straddle:

Trading Mechanics, Taxes, Market Manipulation

• Learn about wash sale rules. They suck and are very easy to activate with options. This will eliminate your ability to write off losses. Over trading can easily cause wash sales. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/washsalerule.asp
• Short attacks:
  • Learn to recognize these sketchy attacks by hedges/firms. They manipulate the market, it’s been documented countless times. A common one is rapid short selling, which pushes the price down.
  • Short Ladder attacks:
    • https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/instablog/11442671-gerald-klein/3096735-anatomy-of-a-short-attack
    • Some people say short ladder attacks don't exist. I've seen some very strange stock nosedives off low volume, so I tend to think they do.
  • If you plan well enough and the market doesn’t give up on the stock you may be able to use it as a great opportunity to buy the dip.
• Cramer explains how he intentionally manipulated the market when he ran a hedge fund years ago. Multiple links to the video are below since this video gets pulled often, Cramer / The street never wanted this to go public.
  • Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/article/cramer-interview-idUKN2036292620070320
  • httpss://youtu.be/r07Gg92YjOI
  • https://youtu.be/VMuEis3byY4
  • https://youtu.be/JEzsfPmh894
  • https://youtu.be/QFfjX8dW-QQ
  • Due to this video I don’t fully trust Cramer. His show can give you stock ideas to buy (or inverse), but you never know where his true loyalties lie.
• Plan for taxes if you are up big. You may need to over withhold or contribute to taxes quarterly depending on your situation. https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc306

-Intermediate / Advanced Strategies (work in progress)-
You’ll notice many of these strategies inverse one another.
Options Strategy Finder
This website is great for learning about new strategies, you’ll see many links to it below.
https://www.theoptionsguide.com/option-trading-strategies.aspx
Short Strangle / Straddle

• Both of these strategies profit from little price movement. I recommend using a P/L calculator to determine BE, profit, etc.
• A straddle sells (or buys) two options at the same expiry and strike.
• A strangle sells (or buys) two options at same expiry with different strikes.
• Both these strategies involved selling a Call and a Put for a credit. Straddle uses ATM legs, strangle uses OTM legs.
• Limited max profits and unlimited risk. Due to the unlimited risk, I am not a fan. However, many people like these a lot.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/short-strangle.aspx
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/short-straddle.aspx

Iron Condor and Iron Butterflies

• These strategies profit from neutral or mostly neutral stock movement. They receive a credit to open and benefit from theta decay. If your stock is range bound, these may be a good choice.
• These are both 4 "legged" trades, so you will have 4 trading fees to enter or exit the trade. A lower cost or zero cost broker shines here. However, “bad” free brokers will give you poor fills, which may not be worth the discount.
• Condors and butterflies have "wings" which are your purchased puts and calls. The wider the wing the higher the max profit/risk. The condor body can be riskier and skinny with a narrow high profit range or wider for a much greater chance of success with lower payout.
• An iron condor is built by combining a put credit spread and a call credit spread with the same expiry.
• An iron condor can be thought of as a modified short strangle with limited risk, and therefore a bit less profit. I prefer defined limited risk.
• The butterfly is similar except instead of a plateau it has a sharp peak. My personal mental note is that a condor looks more like a strangle with wings, while a butterfly looks like a straddle with wings.
• Pay attention to earnings dates when you open these, I have forgotten to check before and it led to bad trades.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/iron-condor.aspx
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/iron-butterfly.aspx

Long Condor (Debit Call Condor)

• The debit version of an Iron Condor. You expect the price to stay inside your defined range. This strategy profits from neutral or mostly neutral stock movement. I’ve never tried this, Iron Condors make more sense to me.
• Limited risk / limited reward.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/condor.aspx

Short Condor (Credit Call Condor)

• Inverse of an Iron Condor. You expect the price to go OUTSIDE your defined range. These are useful when you expect significant price movement. Credit to open.
• Limited risk / limited reward.
• Can be harder to set up. I want to try these, haven’t yet.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/short-condor.aspx

Reverse Iron Condor

• Inverse of an Iron Condor. You expect the price to go OUTSIDE your defined range. These are useful when you expect significant price movement. Debit to open.
• Limited risk / limited reward.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/reverse-iron-condor.aspx

LEAPs

• LEAP Options are options that are long term with many DTE, often over a year until expiration. LEAP calls are great for long term growth plays (downtrends with LEAP puts) or simply when you really like a company and can't afford 100 shares. LEAPs (or any "longer term" option) enables you to sell a PMCC or PMCP (below)

PMCC / PMCP

• PMCC or PMCP are poor man's covered call (or poor man's covered puts). They are diagonal options often used with purchased LEAPs. You sell a shorter DTE call/put with a further OTM strike than your purchased call/put. For PMCC/PMCPs it is often recommended to recoup your extrinsic value as soon as possible, some recommend with your first call CC or put sale, to ensure you are positive if the option is assigned early. These have a lot of moving parts and strategies. If you buy a barely ITM call/put and sell a nearby strike call/put you run the risk of the purchased option getting "blown by" on large stock movement and ending up with a very negative losing trade. Keeping your purchased LEAP deeper ITM should protect you. Check your initial PMCC using an options calculation to make sure you don't screw up.
• I'm currently tinkering with these myself. So far I like .7-.9 delta call LEAPS with 30-45 DTE calls on my CC. The goal is to hold the LEAP long term, potentially until expiration, and constantly sell calls/puts on it that expire worthless. Typically the call/put is rolled up and out or down and out if it's going to be assigned, unless you don't want your LEAP anymore.
• Some people look at these many sold CC or puts as profits, I look at them as lowering my cost basis until it's zero (or even negative). I have a page in my notebook I write each CC on my NIO LEAP (I Meme stock sometimes). I find it satisfying to slowly see the cost of the original option disappear. When I originally wrote this I had ~2 years left on it and it's 9-10% paid for; that doesn't even count the actual gains the LEAP has.
• TT states this is considered an IV play, which I partially agree with. You want to buy these during low IV times since an IV drop will hurt your LEAP value. I look at them more as a way to sell calls/puts on a high IV company with a lot of price movement and potential upside/downside.

Advanced Orders

• Guide to several order types: https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/events/webinars/order-types-from-basic-to-advanced-07162019
• One Triggers Other (OTO):
  • Good brokers will allow you to set these up, some will require a desktop to do it. This lets you link one action to another. In programming think of it like an if-then. You’ll tie a buy/sell to another buy/sell
  • Setting trailing stops on options is very chaotic since their price movement can be drastic due to volatility. I prefer to set my trailing stop to a stock.
  • What I like to do is set a trailing stop on a stock (or just link it to a stock price drop) and have it sell 1 share I own. Then it immediately executes a market order to sell my call. I’ve had good luck doing this with incredibly volatile plays were stop losses aren’t effective. I’ll often have an order saved and ready saved for when a strong run up starts. When my price alerts start blowing up my phone, I’ll immediately hit execute to turn it on.

​
Disclaimer:
I’m not a financial adviser, I'm actually an engineer. I’m not telling you to invest in a specific stock/option or even use a specific strategy. I’ve outlined and more extensively elaborated on what I personally like. You should test several strategies and find what works best for you.
I'm just a guy who trades (mainly options) part-time for financial gain and fun. I don't claim to be some investing savant.

Title says it all. Going to suggest a player to be drafted in either the first or second round (or third for HOU at the moment) for each team, along with a player to target in free agency, and a player to potentially trade for.
Trying to avoid overlap as best I can, but some may have similar targets. Resources used include PFF, The Draft Network, and OverTheCap. Enjoy!

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

Trade Target: DT J.J. Watt, Houston Texans - The last deal between Arizona and Houston worked out well. Why not try again and add a serious piece to their pass rushing arsenal in Watt. An ideal interior fit for Arizona, Watt would help them push for the playoffs in his final seasons in the league.
Draft Pick: C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - Reuniting Kyler Murray with his old center for the Sooners would be an excellent move. The Cardinals currently have Mason Cole at center, but could easily slide him over to guard to make room for Humphrey if they wanted a significant upgrade at an underrated position.
Free Agent Signing: TE Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans - Arizona would be wise to look at adding Jonnu Smith into the equation on offense. One of the NFL's best after the catch at the TE position, he'd be another fun weapon to slot alongside Murray and Hopkins.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12)

Trade Target: S Tracy Walker, Detroit Lions - With a new regime coming in, Detroit is headed towards an extended rebuild, and acquiring assets for up-and-down players like Walker could be a consideration. Now, still young, Walker has plenty of potential for the Falcons, and if the price is right, could be a tremendous bargain.
Draft Pick: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State - While Matt Ryan will remain the QB of the Falcons next season, due to his contract, the Falcons should plan for the future and add a Georgia native in Fields, one of the better QB's out of college football in recent years. He'd be able to develop behind Ryan under the tutelage of new head coach Arthur Smith.
Free Agent Signing: CB Mackensie Alexander, Cincinnati Bengals - The Falcons do not have positive cap space at the moment (currently projected $30 million over the limit) so even after reworking deals and cutting some players, they'll be bargain shopping more than anything else. PFF projects Alexander to fetch a deal of about 2-years, $6 million, which could be feasible for the Falcons. He'd be a solid veteran presence across from CB A.J. Terrell.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

Trade Target: OLB Whitney Mercilus, Houston - I list him in "trade target" as he's technically under contract in Houston going into 2021. However, it's 99% more likely that the Texans cut him and Baltimore pursues him as a newly released free agent. Kind of cheating on my listings, but I like the idea of Mercilus in Baltimore after Houston cuts him. It'd be a coup for Houston if they could get a pick for him. Mercilus is a veteran pass rusher who could step into a role in Baltimore should OLB Matt Judon depart for greener pastures...green meaning money of course.
Draft Pick: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota - The idea of Bateman in Baltimore remains one of my favorite potential pairings for any player likely to be selected in the first round of the draft. Similar to Keenan Allen in my opinion, Bateman could become the go-to wide receiver the Ravens lacked last season.
Free Agent Signing: G Jon Feliciano, Buffalo Bills - The Ravens need to bolster the middle of their offensive line, and a tough veteran like Feliciano could be ideal target for the Ravens. With a big contract committed to LT Ronnie Staley, a cheaper veteran like Feliciano could match price tag with talent. Good value for the Ravens.

Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Trade Target: DT Malcom Brown, New Orleans Saints - The Saints are in cap space purgatory, and thus could be looking to offload some decent players like Brown simply to get back under the cap. He's a solid starting DT who could be available for cheap in the Saints push to real in their financial situation. A strong fit next to Ed Oliver on the inside.
Draft Pick: LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina - Given their limited cap space, the Bills may have to decide between re-signing OT Daryl Williams and LB Matt Milano. If so, a replacement like Surratt could be a smart move for Sean McDermott and co. as Surratt is a quick backer who excels in space and has shown plenty of promise in coverage.
Free Agent Signing: DE Romeo Okwara, Detroit Lions - The Bills aren't loaded with cap space (barely above 0 if the cap stays down at $175 million), but I'd imagine they'll find some ways to free some cap up. If they do, they may want to consider Okwara, a rising pass-rusher, as a replacement for some of their own departing edge rushers. He tallied 10 sacks this season after hitting 7.5 sacks in 2018 in Detroit. While not elite, Okwara's likely a solid value pass-rusher for a contender like the Bills.

Carolina Panthers (5-11)

Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - The Panthers just drafted DT Derrick Brown, but pairing him and Hicks together could become a dominant duo in the middle of that defense. And with DT Kawann Short a likely cut candidate, Hicks could be an instant upgrade for Carolina.
Draft Pick: LB Micah Parsons, Penn State - Forget the QB position, if the Panthers have the opportunity to land Parsons at 8th overall, they should pull the trigger. He'd be an immediate boost of speed, instincts and athleticism into their linebacker corps, a strong replacement for Luke Kuechly.
Free Agent Signing: TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams - More of a move tight end than a traditional in-line blocker, Everett could be an exceptional value signing for someone, as he's not likely to command as much money as Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith, but is a very good player himself.

Chicago Bears (8-8)

Trade Target: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers - Unless the Bears are set to bring back Mitch Trubisky, who played a bit better to end the season but still not strong enough, the Bears should look at the veteran QB market. While Garoppolo has had some injury issues, he's a notable upgrade over Trubisky and could give them a steady veteran presence for a couple of more years.
Draft Pick: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech - There's growing buzz that Rashawn Slater could join Penei Sewell in the top-10, leaving him just out of the Bears' grasp. But Darrisaw is quite the consolation prize as he's a first-round caliber offensive tackle himself who could fill a big need for the offense in the Windy City.
Free Agent Signing: WR Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs - Watkins and Bears head coach Matt Nagy did not cross paths in Kansas City, but a recommendation from Andy Reid could push the two together. The Bears are another team facing some cap complications, and thus may need a cheaper replacement for Allen Robinson on the outside. If so, Watkins has been a strong complimentary receiver who could pair well with rising youngster Darnell Mooney.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)

Trade Target: G Joe Dahl, Detroit Lions - Finding protection and weapons for QB Joe Burrow is the primary goal for Cincinnati this offseason before they enter the coaching carousel in 2022. Dahl is a strong pass protector who has grown into a quality starter. However, with large contracts for C Frank Ragnow coming up, along with big deals in place for Decker and Vaitai, Detroit may need to send Dahl out for picks.
Draft Pick: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon - There is buzz that Northwestern's Rashawn Slater may be viewed as OT1, and I get the hype, however, I'm sticking with Sewell for now. The Bengals should draft Sewell and get him ready to go as their franchise left tackle in 2021.
Free Agent Signing: CB Troy Hill, Los Angeles Rams - The Bengals have a healthy chunk of cap space, and should use of that to bring back CB William Jackson III. However, they should not stop there, they should also make a push for a quality veteran cornerback like Hill to bolster their defense in the meantime.

Cleveland Browns (11-5)

Trade Target: LB Jaylon Smith, Dallas Cowboys - After looking like an elite linebacker from 2017-2019, Smith had a rough year under now fired defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. A fresh start in Cleveland could be ideal for both teams, as Smith is still young enough, 26 years, to be a strong piece to their defense for years to come.
Draft Pick: DT Daviyon Nixon, Iowa - The Browns are in a strong position at 26th overall to sit and see who the top defensive lineman on the board is. If they're lucky enough for it to be a high potential defensive tackle like Nixon, it'd be an ideal situation to bring him in the replace Ogunjobi. A defensive end like Jayson Oweh or Jaelan Phillips could also work here.
Free Agent Signing: S Marcus Williams, New Orleans Saints - The Browns could use a big upgrade on the back end, and Williams, at only 24 years old, would be a premium add for a team who finally broke through the playoffs. PFF projects Williams to command a deal around 4-years $57 million, and the Browns would likely have the money to make that happen, sitting tenth in cap space this offseason.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

Trade Target: CB Mike Hughes, Minnesota Vikings - Hughes was a first-round pick for the Vikings in 2018, but has not lived up to the billing so far. Dallas is in need of several new faces on its defensive backfield, and perhaps a new situation could be best for Hughes to turn his NFL career around. For Dallas, a cheap flier on defense.
Draft Pick: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama - The Cowboys defense is a mess at many levels, and so picking a premium defensive player like Surtain would be a wise for Dallas to get things straightened out. He's consistently been pegged as the top corner of this draft cycle and makes a lot of sense in Dallas.
Free Agent Signing: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, New York Giants - The Cowboys ranked 31st in total rushing yards surrendered in 2020, meaning they'll need to make it a priority to find a run-stuffer like Dalvin Tomlinson to get their defense back on track. While most teams are geared towards stopping the pass, you simply cannot be as bad in run stopping as Dallas was and expect to be competitive.

Denver Broncos (5-11)

Trade Target: QB Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas Raiders - An inter-divisional trade for a QB seems unlikely, but it's something for both sides to consider. The Broncos need to find a veteran QB to bring in to push QB Drew Lock, who has shown flashes in his first two years but has so far been too inconsistent to commit to long-term.
Draft Pick: EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington - More likely a second-round selection here, the Broncos should consider finding a player to develop into Von Miller's replacement, given all the complications with their star pass-rusher recently. Tryon has a high motor and excellent athleticism to develop across from Bradley Chubb.
Free Agent Signing: CB Quinton Dunbar, Seattle Seahawks - Dunbar was an excellent player for Washington previously, but did not meet expectations after getting moved to the Seahawks. Should he walk in free agency, perhaps putting him under a solid defensive coach like Vic Fangio could help him get back into the strong form that made him a coveted player in 2019.

Detroit Lions (5-11)

Trade Target: A Big Haul for Matt Stafford - We suggest one later on, but Detroit's in a full-on rebuild with Stafford wanting out. Peter King recently reported that at least five teams would be willing to offer their first-rounder for Stafford. Detroit should turn it into a bidding war and land as many draft picks as they can to bolster their rebuilding efforts.
Draft Pick: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State - The Lions are moving on from QB Matthew Stafford after he understandably requested out. With Detroit picking at 7th, there's a very good chance that Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson are all off the board. Thus, unless Detroit makes a bold move up the board, chances are that they go with Lance, who has the potential to be available with their pick. He has plenty of upside to develop into a starting QB behind a veteran QB, say Tyrod Taylor, reuniting with new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn?
Free Agent Signing: LB Matt Milano, Buffalo Bills - If we were ranking worst position groups in the league, Detroit's LB corps is in strong contention. An outdated group of lethargic old-school thumpers, almost none of Detroit's LB's are capable of playing modern football at a high level. Detroit should invest some cash into someone who is, such as the Bills LB Matt Milano, an excellent backer with range and some ability in coverage.

Green Bay Packers

Trade Target: WR Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys - The Packers wide receivers performed quite well after all the criticism Green Bay received after not bringing in anyone for QB Aaron Rodgers. However, good is the enemy of great, and pairing Gallup with Davante Adams would give Green Bay an elite duo in terms of pass catchers.
Draft Pick: LB Nick Bolton, Missouri - If Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was here as well, I think he could be another strong option, but Bolton is an excellent linebacker who can fill gaps inside and fly from sideline-to-sideline.
Free Agent Signing: CB Gareon Conley, Houston Texans - Like the Falcons listed earlier, the Packers don't have positive cap space at the moment, and thus any free agent additions will likely be bargain bin deals. I like the example that PFF lists in their free agency preview, suggesting Conley could replicate Ronald Darby's return, taking a year deal with the aims of getting things turned around and landing a larger deal after that. An opportunity in Green Bay seems like a good start.

Houston Texans (4-12)

Trade Target: Every Pick they can get from the Jets - Even hiring a veteran coach like Culley to run the show and attempt to repair the relationship with Watson, it seems unlikely to me that Houston holds on, given the issues between Watson and owner Cal McNair. Thus, if forced to deal him, the Texans should aim to land at least three first rounders from a team like the Jets, who could see Watson as a better player than any of the QB's available behind Trevor Lawrence.
Draft Pick: QB Zach Wilson, BYU - This obviously assumes a trade with the Jets sends #2 overall to Houston. If so, Wilson looks like the next best bet behind Lawrence in my opinion. He, along with the boatload of additional assets that would come along in this trade, should be a solid foundation for Culley and co.'s rebuild.
Free Agent Signing: S Malik Hooker, Indianapolis Colts - The Texans will start their rebuild without any cap space, meaning that taking chances on younger guys like Hooker, 24 years old, to potentially find useful pieces is key. If they can land Hooker to play safety for them on a cheap 1-2 year deal, that'd be ideal for Houston.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - Easy one here. If the Colts had Stafford in 2020 they probably would have replaced the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Stafford is only 32 years, meaning he still has a strong 4-5 years left to help the Colts' well-rounded roster make a championship push. Surrendering a first round pick and potentially a 2022 3rd (if there competition from others) is a gamble I'd definitely make if I were Chris Ballard.
Draft Pick: DE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh - Assuming the Colts use their first on the aforementioned Stafford deal, then finding a balanced edge rusher like Jones would be a great move for Indy. With players like Denico Autry and Justin Houston headed to free agency (and getting old), the Colts would get a terror on the edge with a tremendous motor and tools to develop.
Free Agent Signing: WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears - The Colts have a large amount of cap space, second in the league according to OTC's projections. Given that they will need to conserve some of that war chest for internal extensions, they would be wise to replace T.Y. Hilton with a more dominant receiver like Allen Robinson. An offseason adding Matt Stafford and Robinson together should make Frank Reich and Marcus Brady very excited for 2021.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)

Trade Target: WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns - If the Browns are preparing to move on from Beckham Jr., then perhaps sending him down to Jacksonville to pair up with Urban Meyer could help get him playing elite football again. After posting 1,000 yard season in 3 of the previous 4 seasons, an injury once again cut his year short.
Draft Pick: OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State - Not at #1 overall obviously. We all know that will go to QB Trevor Lawrence. However, with the Rams 1st round selection (acquired via the Jalen Ramsey trade), the Jaguars should look to use it on an upgrade to their offensive line in the form of Radunz.
Free Agent Signing: OLB Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Provided new defensive coordinator Joe Cullen brings a Ravens style 3-4 defense with him, then adding a premier OLB like Barrett while K'Lavon Chaisson develops would be a great move for Jacksonville. With the NFL's lead in cap space, Jacksonville could afford Barrett along with some other instant contributors.

Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)

Trade Target: WR Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears - The Chiefs could easily lose WR Sammy Watkins to free agency, leaving an opening for another wideout to join the rotation. Miller has been fairly productive in Chicago, and could be a solid option to join Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in Andy Reid's passing attack.
Draft Pick: G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC - Vera-Tucker gets mocked to the Chiefs a lot, and it makes perfect sense why. A premier offensive line talent, he has some versatility after playing tackle for the Trojans. While I think his best fit is inside, he'd be an ideal player for Kansas City to add to bolster their protection after investing so much in QB Patrick Mahomes.
Free Agent Signing: C Ted Karras, Miami Dolphins - The Chiefs will also be bargain bin hunting, as they're currently over the cap by $18 million. Thus, a starting caliber center like Ted Karras could prove useful for the defending Super Bowl champs (at this point). Karras signed with the Dolphins for only $3 million last season, and a similar deal with KC could be an absolute bargain when all is said and done.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)

Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - I mentioned Hicks for the Panthers as well, but he'd be a great add for either team, perhaps even more so for the Raiders, who could easily see DT Johnathan Hankins depart in free agency. A disruptive player in the middle, he'd be a nice add in Las Vegas.
Draft Pick: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - After shockingly selecting DE Clelin Ferrell at fourth overall in 2019, the Raiders have still been searching for a game changer at DE to go alongside the productive efforts of Maxx Crosby. Ojulari profiles as a high potential pass rusher to scratch that itch for Jon Gruden and co.
Free Agent Signing: S Anthony Harris, Minnesota Vikings - The Raiders may have to get creative to free up the cap space to land Harris, as they're currently over. But if they can do it, he'd be an ideal player to add to the Vegas' defense, now led by defensive coordinator Ken Whisen...uh...Gus Bradley. Harris is an elite free safety who would pair well with Jonathan Abram.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)

Trade Target: DT Danny Shelton, Detroit Lions - Shelton struggled in Detroit, but frankly, everyone on Patricia's defense did. Before that, Shelton posted strong results as a 3-4 interior gap-plugger, doing a quality job for both the Browns and Patriots before him. With Linval Joseph on the decline, adding a younger replacement for cheap could be in store.
Draft Pick: G Wyatt Davis, Ohio State - LA needs a couple of new starters on its offensive line, and if the tackles fly off the board before they can get one at 13th overall, then perhaps a top notch guard could also suffice. Davis has been a consistent player for the Buckeyes and projects as an instant impact lineman for someone at the next level.
Free Agent Signing: OT Alejandro Villanueva, Pittsburgh Steelers - A sturdy, veteran left tackle should be a big priority for the Chargers, as the imperative to protect QB Justin Herbert is high. After a breakout season for Herbert, he gives the franchise a ton of optimism under new head coach Brandon Staley. Keeping him upright is something Villanueva would do well at.

Los Angeles Rams (10-6)

Trade Target: QB Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars - The Rams are in a pickle with QB Jared Goff. He has not been a strong point for the team recently, but his contract is a bit too heavy to move right now. Thus, a cheaper way to acquire some genuine competition for Goff could be to trade for the affordable Minshew, a solid starter in his own right. Jacksonville will be bringing in Trevor Lawrence anyways to replace him, so perhaps acquiring a pick or so to send him out could be a wise move.
Draft Pick: EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami - Provided that new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris isn't changing the scheme outright, Roche would be an excellent fit at 3-4 OLB in LAR. He's a dynamic pass rusher with excellent physical traits. If he falls to the Rams in the second-round they shouldn't think twice about selecting him.
Free Agent Signing: LB Jarrad Davis, Detroit Lions - The Rams are another team already over the cap, so not a lot to spend on. However, they could use some help at inside linebacker, and Davis projects to be a relatively cheap piece to take a gamble on. Physically impressive, he's struggled with the mental side of the game. If Morris can get him sorted out, it could be excellent value.

Miami Dolphins (10-6)

Trade Target: WR Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons - The Dolphins will likely have the opportunity to draft a premier wide receiver in the first round, but could also use some of their stockpile to add an established star like Jones. Giving Tua as many options as you can is a wise move.
Draft Pick: RB Najee Harris, Alabama - Reuniting Harris and Tua in a backfield would fill a big need for the Dolphins. Whether taking him with their second selection in the first round or hoping he drops to the second, Miami should get serious about finding a talented running back,
Free Agent Signing: G Joe Thuney, New England Patriots - The Dolphins still have a decent amount of cap space (8th in the league) and could easily use some of that to target an upgrade to the interior of their offensive line by adding Thuney. Thuney crossed paths with Dolphins head coach Brian Flores in New England, and a reunion down south could be profitable for both parties.

Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

Trade Target: DT Tyquan Lewis, Indianapolis Colts - Lewis may not be on the trade block, but the Colts have both defensive tackles locked up ahead of him (Buckner, Grover Stewart). Perhaps they'd consider moving a young, promising 3-technique if Minnesota put together a quality offer for him. He'd instantly fill a need for the Vikings.
Draft Pick: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami - With the failed Yannick Ngakoue tenure, the Vikings still need to find a premium pass rusher. Rousseau sat out 2020, but was dominant the year before and projects as a highly athletic piece for Zimmer to develop.
Free Agent Signing: OT Matt Feiler, Pittsburgh Steelers - Feiler offers a lot of versatility, which works great for Minnesota, as they could insert Feiler as a starting tackle, or slide G Ezra Cleveland into the LT position and put Feiler in at guard. Either way, a relatively affordable upgrade on the OL.

New England Patriots (7-9)

Trade Target: TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles are another team finding themselves in a less-than-ideal cap situation, and thus, will likely explore moving a top player like Ertz. While the Patriots have drafted a handful of decent role players at TE, they've lacked a player of Ertz's caliber. He'd be a nice upgrade to help whomever the Patriots land at QB.
Draft Pick: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama - It seems unlikely that Devonta Smith or Ja'Marr Chase slip to New England, but I'd imagine they'd be perfectly content with a potential stud like Waddle to bolster their mediocre group of pass catchers. He's a very smooth player with a lot of potential.
Free Agent Signing: QB Andy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys - Dalton got off to a rough start with Dallas in relief of QB Dak Prescott, scoring a total of 13 points in 2 games while throwing 1 touchdown to 3 interceptions. However, he was admirable after that, throwing 13 touchdowns to 5 interceptions while posting a 4-3 record over that stretch. Dalton could be an upgrade over Cam Newton for New England while they hunt for a new franchise QB to replace Tom Brady.

New Orleans Saints (12-4)

Trade Target: Draft Picks for Kwon Alexander, Nick Easton, or Latavius Murray - The Saints game isn't necessarily who they should bring in, but if they can get picks for some players with bloated contracts that they may need to cut. If they can score some late-round picks to move these guys (or others) elsewhere, they need to pull the trigger.
Draft Pick: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida - While it seems like the hype train on Toney has left the station, it'd be incredible if he slipped to the Saints at 28th overall in this draft. An explosive player, he'd be an ideal partner for WR Michael Thomas, giving Taysom Hill or maybe Jameis(?) some excellent weapons.
Free Agent Signing: TE Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks - The Saints, as mentioned, are in cap purgatory. Their signings will be quite minimum once they make the trades, cuts, and restructures required to get them back under the cap. However, one cheaper option could be a solid TE like Hollister, as TE Jared Cook is set to depart. Putting up 25 catches including 3 touchdowns at a price tag a shade over $3 million could be in New Orleans price range.

New York Giants (6-10)

Trade Target: G Gabe Jackson, Las Vegas Raiders - Jackson has been rumored to be available for a little while now. Not yet 30 years old, he's a steady veteran option on the interior of any offensive line and would fit quite well with the Giants.
Draft Pick: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama - If the Dolphins don't take Smith, the Giants certainly should. Ensuring that QB Daniel Jones has the weapons he needs to grow into the franchise QB role is pertinent. Smith is a stud pass catcher and would be an excellent pick if he were on the board at 10th overall.
Free Agent Signing: EDGE Matt Judon, Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens have let a handful of pass rushers walk, and if they do so with Judon this year, the Giants should go get him. While Yannick could also be a Ravens OLB on the market, Judon fits Joe Judge's style a little bit more than Yannick does, and could be available for cheaper, which is important for another cap squeezed team like the Giants.

New York Jets (2-14)

Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - As I do think Justin Fields or Zach Wilson can be good franchise QB's, Watson already is an exceptional one. The Jets should put together a package of picks to go land the beleaguered QB and unite him with Robert Saleh, whom he listed as one of the guys he originally wanted Houston to interview.
Draft Pick: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - Assuming the Jets send both first-round selections to the Texans in the hypothetical Watson trade, the Jets would still have a premium pick to start off the second-round, one they should use to add a top tier WR like St. Brown who could be a star quickly.
Free Agent Signing: CB William Jackson III, Cincinnati Bengals - If the Bengals can't lock Jackson up to an extension before free agency, the Jets should throw some cash at him to be a foundational piece of Saleh's defense in the Big Apple.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1)

Trade Target: Draft Picks for Zach Ertz, DeSean Jackson, and Alshon Jeffery - Like the Saints, the Eagles probably should focus on offloading bloated contracts rather than bringing anyone in. The cheap rookie contracts that draft picks provide will be needed to steer themselves out of cap purgatory.
Draft Pick: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU - The Eagles and Chase are an ideal fit, and new head coach Nick Sirianni sure could use the big play ability that Chase provides. Whichever QB ends up getting the start, they'll be happy to have a guy like Chase to throw to.
Free Agent Signing: CB Bashaud Breeland, Kansas City Chiefs - The Eagles have a horrific cap situation themselves, and thus, a lower-end veteran like Breeland can give them a solid starter at an affordable price as the Eagles try and sort out their defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Steelers may have brought in Dwayne Haskins, but frankly I have little faith there. Instead, they should call up the Jets to figure out what Darnold will cost them. One season behind Roethlisberger in his final go could be a great change of pace for Darnold before taking over.
Draft Pick: RB Travis Etienne, Clemson - Everyone is too cool for elite running backs in the wannabe scouting world. But Etienne is a stud, and the Steelers need a big upgrade at running back. If they don't like their options for QB late into the first, they should give serious weight to taking Etienne and landing an elite player rather than reach for a lesser player elsewhere.
Free Agent Signing: G Elijah Wilkinson, Denver Broncos - Wilkinson had a very rough 2019 season, but has been a good deal better in 2020. He's still on the younger end, not even 26 years old, and could be an affordable gamble for Pittsburgh, who also needs to find their way back under the cap ($35 million over).

San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - If the Colts don't land Stafford, the 49ers absolutely should. Pairing Stafford and Kyle Shanahan would be fun to watch, and he'd be a much most consistent player for the 49ers than the oft-injured Jimmy G. It's a big move, but one Shanahan may want to consider to make another championship run.
Draft Pick: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech - If the 49ers don't move for Stafford and keep their first-round selection, they should target a top tier corner like Farley as they have a handful of corners (Sherman, Witherspoon, Williams) set to hit the open market.
Free Agent Signing: DT Shelby Harris, Denver Broncos - The 49ers top priority should be retaining OT Trent Williams, but after that, adding a veteran pass rusher on the interior could be a good move. Harris has been a consistent player for Denver, but has yet to be rewarded with a big opportunity, something he could get here alongside Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead.

Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Trade Target: DT Jonathan Allen, Washington Football Team - I'm not sure the Football Team would move him, but he is on the final year of his deal, and Washington's going to have weigh future deals for DE's Montez Sweat and Chase Young into the equation. If they aren't willing to pony up for three studs on the defensive line, they may look to add some picks in exchange for Allen.
Draft Pick: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern - A late riser up the board after a stellar junior year in Evanston. Newsome has ideal size (6'1, 190 lbs) for Seattle and could help fill a gap if they have to choose between Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar.
Free Agent Signing: DE Carl Lawson, Cincinnati Bengals - A really good fit here, as the Seahawks very much need some pass-rushing help. Lawson has been an excellent player for the Bengals and could find the chance to compete in the playoffs if he heads west for Seattle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)

Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Bucs are another team that should explore the asking price for Darnold. While Brady is still winning his battle against time, it seems unrealistic to expect it to continue for too much longer. The Bucs could potentially land his heir apparent in Darnold.
Draft Pick: Christian Barmore, Alabama - Between Barmore and Daviyon Nixon, I think both have a case to make as DT1 in this class, but Barmore projects as a bit better fit to Todd Bowles' 3-4 defense than Nixon does. The Bucs add an impact defensive lineman to pair on the inside with Vita Vea, giving them flexibility in replacing Ndamukong Suh.
Free Agent Signing: OLB Tyus Bowser, Baltimore Ravens - The Bucs have a good chunk of cap space available, but will need to prioritize some re-signings like LB Lavonte David, OLB Shaq Barrett, and TE Rob Gronkowski. Thus, they may not have a lot of cash to throw out there after bringing back some of their own. Bowser is a good value to add as a rotational pass rusher, scoring some decent grades from PFF as a backup for Matt Judon and Yannick in Baltimore. An expanded role in Tampa could pay off for both sides.

Tennessee Titans (11-5)

Trade Target: OLB Jacob Martin, Houston Texans - As sad as it is, Martin's 3 sacks in 2020 would have led the team for Tennessee. In a passing era, you need to get after the QB better than the Texans are doing. While team's are hesitant to trade within the division, the Texans should be more focused on acquiring picks to rebuild, which they could get by moving a decent rotational pass-rusher.
Draft Pick: OLB Joseph Ossai, Texas - Really the Titans should be focused on landing a high potential pass-rusher, and Ossai figures to be a hot name in that range. He's a springy pass rusher who can inject some life into one of the league's worst team's at getting to the QB.
Free Agent Signing: WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts - After a strong season in 2020, WR Corey Davis seems a bit unlikely to return, as he'll likely fetch more on the market than the Titans can afford to pay him. Thus, they should consider adding a veteran replacement to pair with budding star A.J. Brown at wide receiver.

Washington Football Team (7-9)

Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - Another team I think should really make a push for Watson. It'll cost them at least a 2021 and 2022 first-round pick, along with probably another second and DT Jonathan Allen or some other player. It could definitely cost more than that! But Watson would solidify Washington as the top team in the NFC East for the next few years. With QB and DE locked in with Watson, Sweat, and Young, this could be a potential dynasty in the division.
Draft Pick: OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State - A potential second-round target, Washington should look to find a developmental tackle to eventually slot into their lineup. Morgan Moses and Cornelius Lucas were a solid pairing last year, but both are about to turn 30 years old, and Jenkins has a lot of potential. A year to develop before taking a spot in the starting lineup would ideal for everyone involved.
Free Agent Signing: WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions - Washington managed to build a passing attack out of Terry McLaurin and a handful of role players at RB and TE. While it worked in 2020, it does not seem very sustainable, as Washington should use its cap space to bring in a premier WR to pair with Terry McLaurin. Pairing up McLaurin's speed with Golladay's ability to go win contested balls is an ideal complementary pairing.