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Correct Score Bet Predictions for Today and Tomorrow, Dota 2 - Predictionsbet submitted by jasperalex1984 to u/jasperalex1984 [link] [comments]

MCC TEAM RANKINGS + ANALYSIS w/ DODGEBOLT

It is that time again folks. The MCC9 Update Video is up with the changes (and New Game!) and have narrowed down some possible outcomes on who will take the crown. Be sure to watch the video as these rankings will probably not make sense if you didn't see it
Last MCC, i only got 2 Correct Placements, and they were the bottom 2(according to u/MrOrcaDood's Post), yay. This time it'll change. I've read the Stats, I've seen the teams, I know it all. First there is a lot of Factors to consider like the Vlog gun bet with the Red Rabbits. This is the following for the Red Rabbits, as said by Wilbur:
10th-5th) Vlog Gun #2 gets destroyed
5th-1st) Tommy is officially invited into Sleepy Bois, Vlog gun #2 is safe
2nd) Wilbur Pays Tommy $1000
1st) Wilbur Pays Tommy $2000 & Returns Vlog Gun #2
So keep that in mind as we go through the list.
Now Here is the Link if you want to see the Individual Scores for MCC8 because this Ranking list will be heavily influenced by it. I will also use MCC7 scores just a tad bit since some players like Fruit and Grian are returning to the roster.
Now it is time to Rank this, HERE WE GO:
MINECRAFT CHAMPIONSHIPS RANKINGS
  1. Pink Parrots: Well i mean there is kind of a lot of things to say. Grian came 24th in MCC7 since he last played in it and Martyn and Jimmy both placed in the 21-30 bracket during MCC8. They will rely on Smallishbeans who placed 13th last time on a very stacked team. It's kinda hard to say how well they will do in Specific games, but they will have to Pop off Massively if Key Battleground games like Bingo and Build Mart are played. So keep an eye on this team, They may surprise you!
  2. Purple Pandas: This team has talent, theres no denying that. Its just a matter of how they will use it, which is why they are really ranked low. Jerome and Ryguy are average and SB is definitely know what he is doing. Gizzy can do well to but again its hard to say, which is why i'll rank them here but be careful with this team. I think they may be able to do well in Games like Rocket Spleef and Hole in the Wall if they are chosen late.
  3. Yellow Yaks: I wouldn't be to surprised if they got 10th but i highly doubt they will. Quig is a Top 10 player, or Top 1 player as proven by MCC8. fWhip hit 9th and managed to get Top 1. So those two are out of the way, lets review the other pair. Strawburry placed 38th with Mika coming in 39th....yea you can expect what will happen in some games. Remember, after what happened last MCC, its to not underestimate everyone. Seriously i placed Aqua in 6th last time and they surprised me, so there is that. Battleground Games? its hard to say but Hole in the Wall will need to head late game with PvP games coming early, but it probably won't happen like that easily.
  4. Orange Ocelots: This is 1 of 2 of my Dark Horse candidates. This team can be really deadly come tomorrow if no one is careful. Pearl has definitely improved in Parkour as well as the rest but remember, Parkour will once again change as stated by Noxite in the update video (another factor to consider) Seapeekay improving in PvP placed 17th last time. Shubble placed 37th last time but remember she was on a for fun team last time. If she can return to her Prime once more, this team can be a Deadly contender for the Top 3. TapL placed 12th last time for his first MCC, which was not bad considering that was his first. In order for this team to pop off, they will need certain games to do well in such as Battle Box (New Map btw), Build Mart, and Parkour very late to hopefully get them in.
  5. Blue Bats: I'm a little skeptical of this team. Hbomb and Fruit will be deadly come tomorrow as a Duo. oh and the Hermits are split so thats something to consider. False and Ren are joining the Duo as they seek their first MCC Victory. Hbomb placed 5th in MCC8 and Fruit placed 14th in MCC7, 10 coins behind Seapeekay. False and Ren placed 34 and 35th last MCC. As far as I heard, Ren has been practicing and that's good to hear. So why place them bottom 5? Well ahead of them there are a lot of Stacked teams that are also aiming for that Glorious Crown. Can they do well, yeah they can but its a matter of the Game order and how it'll work for them. Rocket Spleef could work out for them Game 6 if it hasn't been chosen yet as they will need this to stay ahead. Other games such as Battle Box, Build Mart, Hole in the Wall, and Sky Battle (NEW GAME).
Top 5 time, so i think we should manage this.
  1. Green Guardian: Oh the stans are gonna come for me are they? This team is looking at a shot at Redemption after the fallout of MCC8. they got 4th place behind the Cyan Creepers. Sapnap got into the Top 10 last time as well as Krtzyy in 4th. George came 18th with Eret coming 32nd. This time things are different. The teams of MCC8 Past are gone (-Red). They gotten to know each other, so they will have a bit Chemistry going forward. For the Battleground Games, pretty much anything with PvP, Hole in the Wall will have to come early, and they will have to do their best to try and Avoid Bingo.
  2. Red Rabbits: Ok a lot of things i must add. The Red Rabbits from MCC8 Make a return for a shot at the Crown just like the Green Guardians from MCC8. This time however, they will be doing something we've never seen before. Tommy will go all out no certain to save the Vlog Gun from Wilbur's Wrath, as stated above.Scott placed 26th while the rest were above 25, with Phil coming 8th. Something to consider, they went 8-1 in Battle Box and only lost to the MCC8 Victors the Pink Parrots. Can they be the first team to do it? Most certainly yes. I do believe they can go for a 9-0 run, that is if a Certain Pig and Green Boy don't get in the way again that is. Battleground Games? Ehh its hard to say. If Ace Race isn't glitched again, then this is a must-do game for them in the later rounds. Skyblockle is out of rotation so it'll cause a bit of trouble but they should be fine.
  3. Lime Llamas: "WHAT?? YOU PUT DREAM'S TEAM 3RD!!" yes, yes i did for good reason actually. Dream and Fundy are without a doubt a duo to be reckoned with tomorrow but theres something thats been bugging me. Sylvee got 29th MCC7 but later got 31th in MCC8. You'll probably argue at me and say"WELL THE PURPLE PANDAS OF MCC8 WEREN'T PLAYING FOR REAL LAST TIME" and to which i will respond with,"yeah that's fair". I think Sylvee will drag the team down a bit but we have to see game day per say. Fundy will be fine as he can pop off so long as there aren't any glitches. now for the Newbie. Tubbo is definitely gonna have the time of his life. But i've seen his streams and he is struggling with Parkour. Why am i mentioning this? because the Parkour will change tomorrow and he'll probably struggle more, as well as Sylvee. Tubbo also practiced dodgebolt with Hbomb and Dream with some of the Testers. He was.....well predictable. If they do make it to Dodgebolt, this team will struggle and will have to act fast. Games to play should be Build Mart very early, with PvP games coming as early as 4th and as late as 7th.
  4. Aqua Axolotls: 2 of 2 of my Dark Horse Candidates. Yea this team will easily dominate PvP games there's no question about it. The man with the plan Technoblade came 6th last time so he should head back to there if everything runs smoothly. Calvin should be heading for a solid 12th and maybe Top 10 if everything goes as planned. Now for the Dark Horse part. Spifey and F1nnster are new players and to MCC and this team could be at a Disadvantage because of that but these two are not Dead Weight. I've seen them compete and I've seen their potential. This team can make the Finals but at what cost? Techno and Calvin will have to push harder like they did in MCU if this team has hopes to make the Finals. The Battle Ground Games are a bit tricky because the other teams are excelled in it. I think Hole in the Wall can be important Game 3 and Battle Box and Survival Games 5th and 6th could work out assuming Dream loses the Takeover and one of those choices are there. Ace Race will be a good choice as well.
Cyan Creepers: If this team doesn't make it to First, expect them 2nd. Pete is a god so no we isn't talking about him. Captain and the 3rd Curse, BROKEN. This is his chance to finally win one and has proven he can get to Top 10, with him coming 11th last time and coming really close to 10th. Puffy is honestly in her Prime now and can probably expect her to pop off like last MCC. Kara could potentially drag the team down but i don't see it that way, in certain games. This team can take it Home for Sparklez's first win and Pete's 3rd, making him the first to 3. Unless the 3rd Curse strikes, then everyone will be in shambles. I think Build Mart can change the outcome for them and Ace Race as early as 3rd can boost them. PvP Games they should try and avoid but will be inevitable. They can do well in BattleBox but they will have to be lucky they aren't targeted in Sky Battle and Survival Games. Other than that, this team is set and ready to go.

DODGEBOLT
So before i do anything, u/MrOrcaDood has made Stats on Dodgebolt and has been updated to MCC8 as of currently. I'll be using this to predict the winner.
So Cyan vs Aqua is what i'm predicting. This should be exciting. If Techno were to make it and win, He'd be the First back-to-back winner of MCC and reach 3 wins first. If Pete wins, then He'll be the First person to reach 3 wins. So it would be exciting if this match up were to Happen. Right, back to Prediction.
So here are the Accuracy Stats for those who have played Dodgebolt and are playing in this:
PeteZahHutt: 35% (15/43)
TechnoBlade: 51% (22/43)
CaptainSparklez: 13% (1/8)
Karacorvus: 25% (2/8)
CaptainPuffy: 30% (3/10)

Interesting indeed. if we did the Math the Cyan Creepers have a 21/69 accuracy according to previous Dodgebolts. That is 30% Accuracy in total. Calvin is a god at the bow and both F1nnster and Spifey are pretty decent with the bow. Techno has a 51% accuracy and can hit shots effectively, so keep an eye on him. This could go both ways and can be even but i expect this Score:
3-2, Aqua wins MCC.
We will have to wait and see what happens on Gameday but i'm pretty excited. Who are you rooting for? I would appreciate any feedback because this took me 4 hours to do. Also thanks to u/MrOrcaDood for the Stats. That man is a LEGEND and will continue to be.


EDIT: MEFS IS HERE FOR FWHIP. i don't think it'll change the outcome but now thats a deadly team. Pray that Orange pops off
EDIT 2: well this didn't age well at all....
I mean at least i made an effort, but still 1 right? I might just hang up my coat for good.
submitted by FinSonic to MinecraftChampionship [link] [comments]

Your 2020 Season Survival Guide and R/Baseball Refresher!

Before we dive in, if you want to participate in the annual Call Your Shot season predictions contest, you can find it here.
It's FINALLY coming! Welcome to the 2020 MLB Season! We are so glad you are here. Don't let the length of this post scare you, we just wanted to consolidate all the relevant information that people have questions about into one place to start the season off. This is your survival guide for the 2020 season, it should have all the pertinent information to answer most of your questions!
If you are a brand new fan I'd recommend going through most of it, if you're a veteran you'll know which sections you'll want to read by their headings. My goal here is that both new and returning fans can learn how to better enjoy the season and know what's going on on Baseball this year. Okay, take some time and read through what you want to read through below!
This is the fourth year of doing this. Every year I go through the previous years comments to find things that should be added or corrected for the next edition, so if you have any great resources or information that you think would be beneficial to add, please comment it below!
Sections:

Introduction for new and renewed interest fans.

Baseball normally has a long season. I don't just mean that in terms of time between opening day and the World Series (which can be considered long as it is), but also the 162 games played in 183 days, 18-20 times against the same 4 teams each. It can be daunting, and many people lose interest by "the dog days" of June and July. This year things are going to be a little different. With only 60 games on the schedule (assuming we make it through without a major clubhouse covid outbreak that cancels games versus that team) every game is going to matter about 3x as much as one in a normal regular season. Tensions will be high, but we might not feel it because there won't be that much crowd noise. THAT SAID - they're still playing 60 games in 66 days, which means almost every day for the next two months isn't just packed with baseball, they're packed with YOUR FAVORITE TEAMS baseball, which while exciting after months without any American sports in the regular season (MLS - a tournament is not the regular season) can end up feeling overwhelming when you just finished watching a late game go into extras then wake up to realize there's an afternoon game on in six hours.
This guide is meant to help you if you wish to avoid being one of those who feels overwhelmed and loses interest a couple weeks after Opening Day.
First and foremost if you are a new fan or newly returning, you must remember one thing: you do not need to watch every game. Many football fans, and even some basketball and hockey fans, find this difficult, they're used to setting aside a few nights a week to watch their team, and they can watch all the games. Baseball isn't like that. For the next two months, your team will only have 6 days where they won't be playing a game. And some of the games they play will start as early as 9:20am (Pacific Time), others will end after 1am (Eastern Time). If you miss a game it's okay, odds are there's another one tomorrow. If you miss a week, no big deal, hell if you get busy for a few months and aren't able to watch you team, that's not an issue, because you can still follow your team.
Baseball is a game to be followed. In the old days it meant picking up the morning paper and checking the box scores. Now it means being able to have a final score texted/tweeted/messaged/emailed/what-evered to you the minute the game ends, or rolling over in bed when you can't sleep and grabbing your phone to check the West Coast scores. It means being able to check reddit in the morning to see any breaking news from across the league, or catch a story you missed. We live in a time where you can go to MLB.com and get a recap of every game from last night in less than 10 minutes. Honestly, baseball was made to be consumed, and the technology age makes it easier than ever, whether you want to spend hours every day pouring over stats and analysis, or 15 seconds to see how your team and their playoff rivals did today.
The rest of this guide is mostly dedicated to ways that you can help yourself follow your team, and if you have time follow the entirety of MLB.
Anyways, enough rambling, TL;DR Don't worry if you miss games, there'll be one tomorrow.

Rule Changes for 2020

For this season only (or so they say...):
  • The NL will utilize the DH full time.
  • In extra innings the person in the batting order immediately before the lead off hitter will start on second base.
  • Games suspended due to rain will continue play at a later date rather than be washed out and restarted.
  • Arguing within six feet of an umpire or participating in a fight will be met with heftier fines and suspensions this yaer.
  • Pitchers will be allowed a wet rag to be brought out from the dugout in lieu of being able to lick their fingers for better grip.
  • Each team has a 20 extra players in their "taxi squad" in addition to their active roster and 40-man roster.
  • Active rosters will start at 30 players, then will be cut to 28 after two weeks, then 26 after four weeks.
  • Spitting is not allowed.
  • Non-social distanced celebrations are not allowed.
Permanent (as any rule change can be in baseball) rule changes for 2020 and beyond:
  • Three batter minimum - pitcher entering the game must face a minimum of three batters unless they complete an inning.
  • The MLB Active Roster is expanded from 25 players to 26 players.

Finding a Team

I always recommend following the local team since you'll have more access to news about them in the local media and should be able to get their radio broadcast, as well as TV broadcasts of them if you have cable/satellite/streaming, and depending on where you're at the occasional over the air game, but if you don't live by a team or don't want to follow the local team, or are just looking for a second team to follow, I wrote this in depth guide to picking a team that's the right fit for you.

Knowing Where Different Teams Stand

Every year ESPN, Sports Illustrated, FOX, NBS, and every other sports related site puts out their season previews. These are great for getting a basic rundown of what is going on with each team, and a simple google search will bring up a plethora of possible articles to read.
If what you really want is a fans perspective on what each team's expectations condensed into a few short comments, I'd highly recommend going through each teams day from our annual "Why will X team exceed expectations?" series. All the previous posts are linked in the Astros thread.

Baseball

Alright, so plugging baseball on baseball seems a bit redundant, but I think it's a good reminder that this is a great hub for all your MLB news throughout the season while still letting you see the occasional amazing college/minor league/foreign league performance.
During the season there are a number of features to keep you informed of all the goings on around baseball.
Every day of the season (and a portion of the offseason) we have General Discussion threads we call Around the Horn. These are great places to ask questions and discuss anything that you want to know about baseball but don't feel like it deserves it's own post. In the Around the Horn post you'll be able to see a full schedule of what is going on around Baseball every week.
Here are the weekly features:
Daily: Nightly Pick'Em - A six year running contest to pick the result of one game every day. Details can be found in this thread.
Monday: Power Rankings - A team of 30 fans from every team in baseball, led by masochist fearless leader kasutori_jack, releases their composite power rankings of the 30 teams. This leads to well thought out discussions and some in depth analysis, as well as salty fans crying about how their team is underrated (there may be more of the latter than the former, but it's still a great way to keep your finger on the pulse of how every team is doing).
Monday (Unofficial) - The last few years thekmanpwnudwn has posted a State of the Subreddits post that gives the top post from each team's subreddit from the last week. This is a great roundup post for staying up to date on what all the different team fandoms are feeling, and helps you catch any milestones you might have otherwise missed.
Tuesday: Weekly Awards - Led by lemcoe9 a different team of a fan from every team releases the results of their weekly (and monthly) voting for who the best position player and pitcher was since the last vote was taken. Once again, a great way to keep track of which players are on hot streaks, and who's dominating the league.
Wednesday: Wild Card Wednesday - Each week a new contest, trivia game, or just out of the box fun thread will be stickied! Got an idea? Let the mods know!
Thursdays: Division Discussions - We rotate between the Easts, Centrals, and Wests to do some more in depth talk about where the playoff races and teams stand. If you only have time for one baseball thread every week and want to keep up with the league, this is the thread to set aside time for.
Friday: Trash Talk/Compliment/Complaint - FRIDAYS ARE FUN DAYS, WE ROTATE BETWEEN TRASH TALK, COMPLIMENT, TRASH TALK, AND COMPLAIN THREADS! TRADITION STATES ALL COMMENTS BE IN ALL CAPS AND ENDING IN EXCLAMATION POINTS! WE ROTATE RATHER THAN HAVE A SET DAY FOR EACH ALL SEASON BECAUSE IT'S A LONG SEASON AND ANY ONE OF THE THREE THREADS CAN GET STALE FAST IF YOU DON'T LEAVE TIME FOR MORE AMMUNITION!
Saturday: Saturday is when we usually plug in occasional things that don't necessarily deserve weekly attention. Things like in depth stat discussions, memorobilia sharing, craft projects, etc.
Sunday: Game of the Week - Sunday is the one day a week where we get together as a subreddit to watch a baseball game together, since it's the one time every week where there's only one game going on and there's guaranteed to be a game. The Sunday Night Baseball game thread is usually posted a couple hours before the first pitch.
In addition the playoffs, and select premier match-ups (mostly at the very end of the season where there is a lot riding on a regular season game) we host game threads for all baseball users. These are neutral thread, for more info on less neutral ones skip to the next section. We may experiment with game threads in baseball for the MLB.tv Free Game of the Day this year.
In addition to all these features, it really is a great place to keep up with breaking news and highlights. It'll be posted here minutes after someone tweets it, and long before it's on MLB.com. Team beat writers get the stories first, and it's easier to check in here a couple times a day than follow every one of them. Plus there's something the kids are calling "dank memes" (but not too many, because us mods don't allow too much moisture to get into the servers).

Your Team's Subreddit (And other team subs as well)

The mods at baseball have one goal - help you have the best possible reddit baseball experience, and a LOT of that is helping you get connected to other fans of your team (which feels a little like a cop-out because it means less work for us if you're doing more on your team's sub, but your team's mods aren't complaining.)
One of the main draws of team subs (other than in depth discussion with like-fan-minded users, getting breaking news and analysis on your team, team-memes, and other reddit discussions that come up from a group of individuals who can agree on one thing) are game threads. At this time (to the best of my knowledge) every team sub hosts game threads for their team's games, and you can easily access them in the sidebar during the season by clicking on the team's logo in the schedule (we're working on getting that up to speed, MLB changed some parts of their RSS and background data and we've had to work around that to get our automated system back up). We like to keep the game threads in team subs for a few reasons, one of which is we want to support the team subs and send them relevant traffic when we can because they really do an amazing job, another is because with 15 games a day this place would look like crap if we had game threads for every game or let users post them as they please (we've tried it, it blots out news, discussion, and highlights and looks like crap, baseball doesn't have only a couple days set aside for games or focus on marquee match ups like many other sports, it's 2430 games played in 183 days and is better when it's spread out.)
Even if you're not a game thread person though, getting connected with a good team sub can make disappointing seasons more bearable, and great seasons more exciting, and I know plenty of users that said that their team's sub basically keeps them fans. Team subs are also a great place to get connected to...

Twitter, Podcasts, and other General News/Analysis Sources

Going to be honest here, I don't use twitter and I do not frequently read other people's blogs. I know many people do and enjoy it, and I believe the best way to find the people to follow/sites to visit that interest you the most are to hang around your team's sub and note which Tweets/Sites that are linked to that most often peak your interest. Your list of favorite baseball writers is going to be different than my favorite list, and finding the right twitter personalities, podcasts hosts, and bloggers can make game analysis more interesting for you even if your team is playing like crap and it's the middle of July.
Here are some common suggestions for some general baseball twitter accounts and podcasts to get you started, but like I said, find what you like and follow those:
Twitter
Account Account Account
@MLB @Ken_Rosenthal @Buster_ESPN
@jonmorosi @mlbtraderumors @MiLB
@JeffPassan @MLBInjuryNews @BNightengale
@keithlaw @based_ball @SamMillerBB
@jonahkeri @BaseballAmerica @brooksbaseball
@BenLindbergh @ChrisCotillo @mike_petriello
@MJ_Baumann @FanRagSports @TheAthleticMLB
@fangraphs @baseballprospectus @baseball_ref
@daynperry @CBSSportsMLB @CespedesBBQ
@GrantBrisbee @JonHeyman @cantpitch
@MLBRosterMoves @darenw @extrabaggs
Podcasts
Account Account Account
Effectively Wild Baseball Tonight The Ringer

The Statistical Titans: Baseball Reference and Fangraphs

Literally every day you will find a link or to BaseballReference.com or Fangraphs.com here, it's a given, and it's because these are the two most extensive free baseball databases that are easy to navigate. If you want to look up anything about baseball history, check Baseball Reference, if you want to look up how players stack up with non-proprietary advanced metrics or read an insightful blog post about why someone is overrated/underrated or overperforming/underperforming, check Fangraphs. With these two sites you have all the stats and figures you need to make a competent argument for basically anything you want with a little cherry picking.
A large part of the modern baseball world is statistics and you're going to find yourself getting more immersed in discussing the game if you can get a handle on all the terms getting thrown around. If you are brand new to baseball, take a little while to get to know the game before diving into these sites, but if you have a handle on the basics and are ready to know what this WAR everyone is talking about is, dive into the glossaries and find the statistics.
When you get the basics, creating your own analysis doesn't seem as daunting, and one of the reasons I love baseball is that I can deconstruct pretty much every play and find some meaning behind it. If you are like that and enjoy numbers, theoretical projections, and breaking things down into simple figures before reconstructing them into something long and beautiful, then learning the basics of sabrmetrics will make you a baseball fan for life. If, on the other hand, you just want to enjoy the game for the beautiful pastime that it is by watching, then we've got a little bit to go through...

Where to Watch? - Your TV and Streaming Guide

So a big part of baseball is, you know, actually being able to watch the games (though as I talk about at the end, it might not necessarily be the case for you, and that doesn't mean you can't enjoy baseball, skip down and see what I'm talking about in the final section).
First off, if you are looking for free games to watch, you are in luck! MLB.tv streams one game a day for free on MLB.com and Yahoo.com. These games are subject to local blackouts (details on those in the MLB.tv section) but are definitely worth watching if you're trying to see if you'll enjoy baseball, or just need a free baseball fix. Facebook is also streaming one game a week during the season for free. The other free games available are from May 18 to July 13 on Saturday night and Thursday nights in September when FOX airs games on their OTA affiliated networks. Believe it or not, TV antennas still work in most areas, and these games are free to watch. Some teams also broadcast select games on OTA networks in their region.
Okay, so now the more expensive stuff. If you have even the most basic cable package (or log in information) you probably have ESPN. ESPN airs games every Sunday Night as well as Wednesday Night and Opening Weekend. These games are also available on ESPN Go.
You also probably have a regional sports channel. This is where almost all of your local teams games will be aired. Here is a decent breakdown of every team and what network they are carried on.
TBS is also on even the most basic networks, they air games the final 13 Sundays of the regular season in the afternoon.
FS1 and FOX carry baseball games almost every Saturday of the season, and MLB Network carries games pretty much every day.
A list of currently scheduled national broadcasts is available here, not all games have been chosen so there will be more added to the list.
For all these networks (except for the Dodgers, Orioles, and Nationals regional networks) there are options to stream the games online provided you have cable login information for the channel. During the playoffs FS1, TBS, and MLB Network will carry most of the games, with ESPN carrying a wild card game and FOX carrying the World Series.
Now there are also streaming services that grant access to most of the previously mentioned channels:
  • Sling TV Orange package gets you ESPN, ESPN 2, and TBS.
  • Sling TV Blue package gets you FOX, FS1, FS2, TBS, and most regional sports networks.
  • Youtube TV gets you FOX, ESPN, ESPN 2, FS1, TBS, MLB Network, and some regional sports networks.
  • HULU Live gets you FOX, ESPN, ESPN 2, FS1, FS2, TBS, and your regional sports networks.
  • Playstation Vue Access gets you FOX, ESPN, ESPN 2, FS1, FS2, and TBS.
  • Playstation Vue Core adds MLB Network to the Access channels.
  • Playstation Vue Sports Extra adds regional sports networks in addition to your other channels.
  • AT&T TV Now Live a Little gets you FOX, ESPN, ESPN 2, FS1, and TBS and your regional sports networks.
  • AT&T TV Now Just Right adds MLB Network to the Live a Little channels.
  • AT&T TV Now Go Big adds FS2 to the Just Right channels.
  • FUBO Premier gets you FOX, FS1, and your regional sports networks
Also, ESPN+ will carry select games pretty much daily throughout the season.

MLB.TV - the Ultimate Fan Investment

Alright, so a few things to cover with this, first of all YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LEGALLY STREAM IN MARKET GAMES IF YOU LIVE IN THE UNITED STATES. MLB.tv uses your IP address to see where you are located, and if it pings back that you are in a team's home market it will not let you watch the game LIVE. Here is where you can find what games MLB.tv will black you out from. National broadcasts on ESPN, FOX, and TBS are also subject to blackouts within the United States (MLB Network games are not). Before you ask, yes there are less than legal ways to get around this (spoofing your IP address, subreddit dedicated to mlb streams, etc.), but I won't be talking about those in detail here. IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA, YOU WILL HAVE NO BLACKOUTS.
Even if you are blacked out, you will be able to watch the game 90 minutes after it finishes, so if you work a late shift or stay up late it might be worth it for you anyways even if you only want to follow one team.
Military members and college students, don't forget to apply your 35% discount!
"But I don't want to watch EVERY out of market game, I just want to watch MY team!" Cool, for $25 less there's a single team option that will allow you to watch all your team's non-blacked out games! Personally, I'd pay the extra $25 for the opportunity to watch every Kershaw, Bumgarner, and Scherzer start, or put the Cubs on in the background while working on a Friday afternoon, but to each their own.
"But I don't want to commit for a full year!" That's okay, there's a monthly option as well in case you know there are months where you can't watch as much.
Some of the fun features of MLB.tv include the ability to watch four games at once and quickly swap your audio from one to another (seriously, I'm never on commercial break when I'm watching baseball, unless there's only one game on I'm able to watch it all, and in September that's huge) and condensed games. What are condensed games? They go through and cut out all the time between pitches and innings, meaning if you want to watch a whole game in less than a half hour (or are searching desperately for a play to make a .gif or streamable out of that for some reason isn't considered a highlight) it's really easy. If you're someone who really wants to get into the game but can't figure out how to grind through watching a full game, Condensed Games are great for keeping up with a team while you learn the little details between pitches that somehow make watching the catcher twiddle his fingers exciting for some fans.
Also, new this year, MLB has added some great baseball documentaries to your MLB.tv subscription, giving you access to more than just games for the first time.
In addition, there are two great resources to enhance your total immersion into baseball if there are multiple games going on. Please note for both of these you must already be logged into MLB.tv to make them work. The first, and most basic, is Brooks Baseball's MLB.TV Redzone. It will automatically take you to the highest leverage game going on, and will automatically shift you to another game between innings OR if another game enters a higher leverage situation. For a more personalized touch, The Baseball Guage has MLB.TV Game Changer which lets you customize your preferences so MLB.tv will always switch to the game that is most relevant to you. This is great if you play fantasy and want to keep up with your players, are waiting for someone to hit a milestone, or if you want to make sure your action is broken into to follow a no-hitter in progress.
It also gives you a free subscription to...

MLB AtBat - The Most Underrated Way to Stay Connected to Baseball

MLB AtBat is MLB's official application. It comes in two versions, the free version which has ads but is useful for keeping up to date with all the scores, and the paid version ($19.99 for the year of $2.99 monthly) which gives you access to ad-free content, Gameday on your mobile device, and (most valuable) access to every team's radio stream for every game during the season and postseason completely blackout free. If there's a day game, you can bet I'm listening to it at work, if I'm mowing the lawn on a Saturday I'm listening to a game, when I can't sleep at night, on comes a West Coast game. To get the paid version you must download the free version, then subscribe within the app, or log into an MLB account that has MLB.tv.
Baseball was made to be on the radio, it's a sport that is very easy to follow the action with the right announcer. At work (or school) it's great because you can half listen, and when the announcer gets excited you can instantly tune back in to hear what's going on. This is the most underrated way to stay connected to your team throughout the year. Before I could afford MLB.tv, this was the way to go, and it honestly makes me question every year whether getting the MLB.tv package is worth is when I can get 80% of the entertainment value from listening to the games (and every year I manage to forget to unsubscribe, for many reasons listed above).
Gameday on mobile is also a great feature, it lets you quickly check in on the action during brief recesses in meetings (or under the table during meetings), or breaks between classes (or under a desk in classes). This is honestly my primary means of keeping track of Twins games throughout the year. My wife thinks I'm crazy when I could just watch the game, but instead am nervously checking my phone every couple minutes. IF I WATCH I JINX THE TEAM, HONEY!

How to watch baseball?

So this is a question that we get from many new fans who are just trying to figure out what the hell is going on and why people find this game so fascinating. I'll get the elephant in the room out of the way, yes there are some "boring" parts of watching baseball on TV. The camera fans to a batter spitting and adjusting his gloves, the pitcher adjusts his crotch then licks his fingers, random shots of a bored looking manager, etc. When you are actually at the ballpark you can be watching where the catcher and fielders set up to try to predict the pitch that is coming (read The Hidden Language of Baseball by Paul Dickson for some great insight into how to interpret this), but on TV it's not usually the case. This is where I have some suggestions for new fans trying to get into it.
First off, if you are looking for just a relaxing day, embrace the slow pace with a beer and veg out on the couch while watching. It's meant to be slow and relaxing (until it gets tense and exciting, usually with runners on). Seriously, when was the last time you just sat and did nothing? Mid July afternoon games are a perfect way to reach that zen of half-consciousness, until something happens to get you sucked into the action.
Another option to stay engaged is keeping score. I find keeping score relaxing and looking back through a scorebook can be fun to see what you were doing a few years ago (except for that damn unfinished scorecard from 2015 where A-Rod hit the most predictable home run in Twins-Yankees history and I sent my scorecard flying to the other side of the room). As NPR once put it, keeping score is a knowledge making activity, and if you have the time and patience for it it is a great way to learn the game. There are a couple different guides to keeping score, and most scorebooks/cards will have a brief example of how to do so. If you have any questions, the Around the Horn thread is a great place to ask!
Gamethreads are another way to get together with other baseball fans and pass the time between pitches, especially in team subs you get to know the regulars and conversations start to wonder away from baseball at times throughout the game, and that's fine. Baseball is an excuse to enjoy a summer day.
For those that want to actually understand what is going on during that time, though, there are some options. Watching Baseball Smarter by Zack Hample (who despite his reputation on this subreddit knows some stuff and actually pops in from time to time to comment on different things) is a good starting place for new fans. Baseball for Dummies and The Complete Idiots Guide to Baseball are also good starting points for those willing to sit and read for a little bit.
For those who don't want to read a book, I guess I can touch on what I'm looking for between pitches. A big part of baseball is pitch selection, so scouting out a pitchers repertoire of pitches is a good starting point, BrooksBaseball.net has great cheat sheets on every pitcher in the game, and PitcherList.com has a visual example of each pitcher's pitches so you can see what you can be looking for. Anyways, I mention that because the whole reason the catcher is twiddling his fingers behind the plate is to go over with the pitcher what pitch is going to be thrown. What I'm watching for between pitches is where the catcher is setting up behind the plate and guessing which pitch is going to be thrown. A 2-0 and 3-1 count are known as hitters counts because the pitcher needs to throw a strike or risk walking the batter, when the count reaches either of those pay attention, because the hitters going to be looking for his perfect pitch and there's probably going to be some action on the field. 0-1, 0-2, and 1-2 are pitcher's counts, look for curveball, slider or other somewhat nasty pitch to be thrown to get the batter to swing at a bad pitch, or a fastball inside to catch them off guard. If you have any questions about this, go ahead and ask in an around the horn thread.

Where to watch highlights and game recaps.

There are many many places to see highlights and game recaps, this is not an exhaustive list, but is a good start.
For highlights, bigger highlights will often be posed here on baseball a few minutes after they occur, if you wish to post them please familiarize yourself with the subreddit rules. They also appear relatively quickly on MLB.com in each games Gameday area. For a pretty slick collection of highlights from across MLB, https://baseball.theate is a great place to exclusively watch highlights.
There are a few ways to get great game recaps. If you have MLB Network, every day Quick Pitch is an hour-long show that recaps every game from the previous day. It usually starts after MLB Tonight (about 10pm EDT) or whatever game MLB Network is showing finishes up, and runs until 10am EDT the next day. MLB.com also puts out recaps of every game by the next morning, usually a 2-5 minutes quick rundown of highlights that can be found on the game recap. It also puts out Fastcast videos on youtube and their website every morning which has a brief rundown of all the games from the previous day. Here's an example of a Fastcast from two seasons ago.
If you want one concise place to see most of these, efitz11 was amazing last season and posted video links to every game recap and fastcast in the daily Around the Horn thread. Here's an example. I am unsure if they plan to continue it this year, but it would be surely appreciated!

TL;DR Finding what you enjoy about the game.

When it boils down to it, baseball is about finding entertainment and enjoyment, and don't let anyone try to tell you how to enjoy baseball. If you want nothing to do with statistical analysis and just want to enjoy what's going on on the field, don't let anyone tell you you aren't enough of a fan, and if you want to dissect a player into their strengths and components using statcast and advanced metrics don't let anyone tell you you're reading into the game too much. You can follow one team, and only one team, or you can follow multiple teams, don't let anyone tell you you're not a true fan for wearing another team's gear or enjoying their games. You might enjoy bat flips and flamboyance, or reserved speedy home run trots. You might not even enjoy physically watching a game (especially not if your team isn't playing), but find yourself loving keeping track of your team through the season and tracking your players or maybe just the thrill of the standings race and scoreboard watching or maybe you just love all the numbers that get thrown around and arguing about their relevancy. That's okay, eventually I believe enjoyment of the game itself will come, but even if it doesn't, the long baseball season is still creating a place of enjoyment for you, and that's what matters. If you have any questions, once again, feel free to ask them in our daily Around the Horn thread, or below in the comments, or if you really want to feel free to PM with questions and I'd be happy to answer.
So watch games this week and join in the discussion here, you'll naturally find yourself gravitating towards certain players or teams and enjoying different aspects of the game. Baseball is a long season, find what you enjoy, stick to it, dwell on it, and enjoy it.
TL;DR for the TL;DR - Baseball is fun
submitted by cardith_lorda to baseball [link] [comments]

2020 Rookie Ranking Capstone

Author’s Note: I just wrote 3500 words of gibberish. I’m washed boys. I’ll bold some of the highlights; but don’t punish yourself too much or expect a ton out of it. Reads more like a recap into decision making without a ton of time taken to walk through the individual pieces of that process.
TLDR;

2020 Rookie Process to Date:


Small side note, I have stepped down as Moderator. When I get passionate about something—well, I tend to go overboard...take a brief look at my post history. Either way summer is fast approaching, and it is just a good time to reprioritize things in life.
Big note. This is not a traditional ranking of players. If that is your expectation, this will not be your cup of tea. This is my cathartic debrief and recap from my rookie draft season; I’ll throw out a few trains of thoughts on a few players, hopefully some interesting nuggets that’ll help people, but I understand if most are displeased.


Foreword

Another year in the books of discussing and allowing data & historical precedence to carry us through the months. Mentally I am already onto 2021 and will probably put out a “Notes on” soon. But for now, let us work through my final rankings of the 2020 class. Things obviously change, more data is pouring out of teams, the off-season will be unique due to COVID-19 and more information will come as our takes metastasize to our brain.
This post is going to bring most people far less utility. Just the way I’ve written it, for that I am sorry. But I wanted to dig at my mindset while I was drafting less every potential hypothetical that we twist ourselves into knots over with these exercises.
In order to deliver my usual posts it requires more nuance than I am willing to produce currently. Some may think, “why bother?” Well, my rookie drafts are done for the season and I thought it would be nice to have a conversation, and hopefully pull people into a broader conversation. Please bear with me, while I used data to assign tiers, much of the decisions making done within the tiers was done on feelings that emerged from digesting that data.

Quarterback Rankings

I have Burrow and Tua far closer than most people, they are tiered for me. Especially when there is a major discrepancy in draft value required to secure them, I will prioritize taking Tua.
There is a good argument for Justin Herbert in the conversation, but I have never been high on his tools, and collegiate production. Love enters the conversation as the true definition of a “dynasty investment.”
I would be willing to roster a few other guys; Hurts, Fromm, Eason, Gordon but I would not consider them any sooner than the third or fourth round of rookie drafts.
  1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals [-]
  2. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins [-]
  3. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers [-]
  4. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers [-]

Running Back Rankings

Look at the last 20 years of bell-cow running backs with successful rushing QBs and almost all of them average 100+ scrimmage yards/game. Dobbins will be ranked higher than Taylor by the consensus sooner rather than later.
Taylor is still a safe talent on a very good running team with limited competition (sorry Mack & Hines); but I’m not certain how anyone right now can ignore CEH or Dobbins. Below I’ll rank them in the order that’ll piss off the most people, but I would take the guy you can get for the best value in your draft. Today that might be Dobbins, tomorrow it might be Taylor.
If you’re picking at 1, it’s a tough choice. Kansas City and Baltimore are well run programs. CEH collegiate profile was incomplete, only one year of stud production, but does that mean anything in Kansas City? Dobbins was special at Ohio State, but does that lack of preparation in year 2 seep back in now that he’s in the NFL? Is Taylor more concerned with owning Toppers’ Pizza locations in Madison WI than playing football? We all find our reasons to take our guys.
Cam Akers and D’Andre Swift will share a tier, again take the guy you believe in or the guy you can get for the best value.
Everyone else ranked is in a grab bag tier, grab them where-ever is most prudent, I’ve assigned rough values based on where I’ve seen them go and where I start considering taking them. Anyone not listed is considered a round 3/round 4 guy that I’m not concerning myself with. I may love the Anthony McFarland fit/pick but I am not going to waste more words on it.
Rank change [-] speaks to the change of tiering in this case, not a change in position rank.
  1. JK Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens [+1]
  2. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts [-]
  3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs [+1]
  4. Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams [+1]
  5. D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions [-]
  6. AJ Dillon. Green Bay Packers [mid to late Round 2 of your rookie draft]
  7. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers [mid to late Round 2]
  8. Antonio Gibson, Washington Redskins [Round 2/3 turn]
  9. Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers [Round 3]



Popcorn time!

Wide Receiver Rankings

  1. CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys [-]
  2. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings [-]
  3. Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles [+2]
  4. Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars [+6]
  5. Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas Raiders [-2]
  6. Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts [+1]
  7. Denzel Mims, New York Jets [-1]
  8. Devin Duvernay, Baltimore Ravens [UR]
  9. Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams [UR]

Am I missing a few guys? Absolutely I am. These are the guys, for the most part that I am targeting. In theory, Jerry Jeudy is my 2nd ranked wide receiver; Henry Ruggs is my 5th ranked receiver. When it comes down to molding a draft board; where I’m seeing Jeudy go I NEED one of my top 3 RBs; hell I’ll move up 1 or 2 spots to make sure it happens. Beyond that I am in the strong lean Akers > Jeudy camp.
To further highlight this, I do like Jeudy. But in this moment..I want, CEH-Dobbins-Taylor-Akers, Burrow-Tua, and CeeDee over him. That means the earliest I am drafting Jeudy is 8 and the board has to fall that way. I'd have to be the Dallas Cowboys to have a pick in that range and also have the board fall that way. I'm just not getting Jeudy.
I want Akers-Swift-Tua-Reagor-Jefferson where Ruggs commonly comes off the board. You should absolutely be considering Aiyuk when he slips into the second, or Claypool anywhere from the mid second on. You’ll figure that out—you’ll have your preferences. I have mine.




So here is the crux of all of this, three, real, live drafts and the results for them.


THEORY TO REALITY (LIVE DRAFT RESULTS)


Teams are color-coated (no color alignment between drafts, bright red in Draft A is not the guy that is bright red in Draft C); my selections, the player’s name is highlighted in orange. Two of the drafts went to 4 rounds, a third to 6; at the time of this screen capture Draft C had just gotten through the third round.

Draft A

A freshly booted devy superflex league, TE premium, PP1D, draconian QB scoring (+6 touchdowns, -4 turnovers), QB/SF/1RB/1W1TE/5FLEX, 10 teams. Going into it the startup, I went stud-only early and then poured capital into Devy and Rookie picks. My baseline roster of note was Wentz-Wilson-Saquon-Nuk. Devy picks yielded Pickens, Garrett Wilson, Najee Harris.
At 1.05, the pick was always CeeDee Lamb. My flair is Lamb Brigade, I’ve been on Lamb since before the season. The Cowboys’ having Lamb as their 6th rated player, and Jerry requesting that he wears Irvin and Dez’s #88 only solidifies it for me. This is dynasty. Cooper is on a team friendly deal after the 2021 season, Gallup is due for resigning after 2021, I trust Lamb to hit his markers (500+ yards year 1, better year 2). My expectation is a Marvin Harrison-Reggie Wayne or Andre Johnson-DeAndre Hopkins type come up. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t give JK Dobbins a thought—but it was CeeDee ForMe. Let’s be clear, Dobbins is the safer play here. I just have a favorite.
Reading through this I want to further clarify this pick. It was a numbers game for me. I have Lamb >> Jeudy whereas I have Dobbins only > Akers. By counting the picks I liked my chances of getting Akers at 8. Didn't work out that way.
At 1.08, I was originally hoping I might get my first share of Akers. That wasn’t to be and this particularly decision point wasn’t difficult either. I counted out the players I liked, Jefferson, Swift, Reagor, Tua; and asked myself who was going to be there at 2.01. Least likely to be there was Tua because of superflex and positional scarcity. There are absolutely some worlds I take one of the other 3; but not this one.
At 2.01, best of the rest. Reagor was the easy choice for me. Let’s be clear here I am a huge fan of Reagor, had him as my WR2 coming into the 2019 season. Do not get caught expecting him to be a year 1 dynamo. Nothing would surprise me, in the same vein Ertz/Goedert will get there 200 targets and I suspect Alshon and DeSean will be in the gameplan to some degree (over under around 200 targets if healthy). Cap restraints make me reluctant to believe either player gets shipped before the season. There is room to consider Ruggs here instead of Reagor.
At 2.03, this was my first Laviska share. It was perplexing to be honest. If you’ve read any of my work to this point—I think you’re surprised I have two shares of Laviska. Part of it was the post-draft interviews, Jacksonville talking about ‘Viska getting a good medical eval and that they believe his surgeries with good rehabilitation habits have corrected all of his nagging issues; probably a pipedream. There is an air of upside to this guy that I can’t shrug off, he has sink in his routes that are second to none in this class. When I looked around at Mims, Aiyuk, Love, Pittman, Hamler, Higgins, I simply do not feel the same about their profiles. Let’s highlight that, “I did not feel the same.” Toss in Fournette on his way out, myself being a bit of a Jay Gruden-stan, and Jacksonville and Viska hooking up that night to discuss their plans for him. I can’t shake the upside. This is a high-risk pick—but I LOVE this value in the early to mid-second. Even if he is a stud, I promise you I will joke until the end of the time that I expect him to be on my IR at any moment.
At 2.10, my boy, Bryan Edwards. It’s been a long time. Two years of work and we finally made it. My first share of Bryan Edwards. I am led to believe that he was going to put up a great combine at 6-3, 215; he immediately slots in as their iso-X; and Mayock sang so many praises I had to catch my breath. This draft has been all heart for me and the statistical profiles of every one of these guys have my back. I was uneasy with letting Dillon go here. I frantically tried to trade up for him before and after the Edwards pick. Just such a good value for Dillon. I later found out that the 3.02 was insta-drafting either Edwards or Dillon so I was screwed either way and in my heart of hearts I’m glad I have Edwards.
The one problem with this draft, no immediate starters to fill into those FLEX spots for this draft. I was so busy chasing my guys that I am criminally thin at RB on this roster (although I would have gone Akers at 8 to remedy this in the moment—probably not the best choice in hindsight); thankfully I had a good late draft, while people were scooping up third and fourth round rookie picks I was grab DeSean Jackson’s, Marvin Jones types that by week 4 or 5 of the coming season I should be more comfortable with my lineup.

Draft B

A newly acquired league that might be a little softcore for my tastes. I constantly have to remind myself that it’s only 4PT passing TD, 1QB and fairly small starting lineups for 12 teams (QB/2RB/2W1TE/2FLEX). The roster is pretty shallow for my tastes, but I do like the starting lineup, the most notable assets include Wentz-Elliott-Adams-Odell-Andrews.
At 2.06, the board was already light. There were guys there we can convince ourselves of, but I was pretty much down to Edwards-Dillon-Tua-Burrow. The ground swell in the league suggested that a QB was likely going to be there at 2.12, even if I was just stashing Love for the next half decade; who cares it’s 2.12. Knowing that most of the league was aware of my online presence, I decided to go Edwards. Looking back at the move, I probably should have gone with the upside presented in AJ Dillon’s profile—but you’re trying to make the best out of a crap sandwich at this point in the draft, regardless of what anyone is trying to pump you full of.
At 2.08, I lucked out and Dillon was there, easy insta-draft.
At 2.12, I probably played myself. It’s 1QB, I don’t expect to have to start Tua year one, I have a general affinity for him—and let’s be honest; do you really want to bet significant money on who will have a better career? As you can tell—at this point I went full “screw it.” Will I come to regret the pick? Probably. Will it undermine my team in this league—in 1QB, 4pt passing TD, nah.
At 3.10, I traded for this pick. Honestly, I had 3 concurrent rookie drafts running and I was patently sick of them. Waay too many people were running most of their 8 hour clocks and I was tired of waiting. I traded 2, 2020 4ths (became Quez Watkins and James Proche) and a 2021 4th to get up to 3.10 and end my draft. What if I told you the Saints traded not 1, not 2, but 4 picks to move up to get Trautman, and then after that came out and said that he was a top 40 rated player on their board. What if then, after that I told you their only tight end of note is 33 years old. Hi, one Adam Trautman please.

Draft C

This is the coup de grace. This is my Mona Lisa, so much went right, I don’t even know how to react. This league is superflex, ppr, 1QB/1SF/2RB/3W1TE/2FLEX/1DST, 12 teams, 6pt passing touchdowns.
Tua went 1.01 because the 1.01-owner’s team (newly adopted orphan) is legitimately bad, full rebuild, he’s aiming Lawrence next year. He has Tua-Burrow evenly ranked, his hope is that Tua gets redshirted this year and does his team no good.
The owner that selected both CEH and Jonathan Taylor considered Burrow over Taylor but is pretty solid at QB. The 2/3 owner tried literally everything to get 4/5 to acquire CeeDee. At one point he was offering Evans straight up. No dice. He had quite the run of attempts to trade, and they were clear overpays by most people’s standards, no one wanted to budge; he did it all throughout the first and second rounds.
We all assumed Burrow at 4, it’s the only reason an overpay won’t work, right? BOOM, Jeudy. At this point I don’t know what to do with my hands. The #5 owner was planning Dobbins 100% of the way and never expected Burrow to be right there. He’s trying everything to get out of the #5 pick and turn it into gold. The 2/3 owner is throwing everything and the kitchen sink at him—not good enough. I’m sweating bullets for my Lamb share..and finally the #5 relents and takes Burrow.
Examples like this, is why I tell people not to just draft a guy and assume they'll get a kings-ransom elsewhere. Sure 1-3 teams in that superflex league might be interested, but in the moment, at likely his cheapest price no one expressed interest in Burrow. Don't expect that to change suddenly over night. To further that example, If Ruggs some how falls to you at 2.06 and you don't like him, don't suddenly expect that'll you'll be able to turn him for a profit later--the league, or at least the people on the board and active on that day are telling you they really aren't that interested.
At 1.06, I take Lamb. The Draft A and C were running pretty close to one another so when I was on the clock (many shared owners between A & C) in A, I was waiting for my pick in C so that I could ensure I didn’t get sniped for Lamb. Reasons above described why I’m all in on Lamb—past post history just furthers it. Why listen to me when you can listen to the mountains of pundits.
At 1.07, this was the beauty. This was the death blow, I can’t believe I got Dobbins here. Just a stupid bit of luck that the 1.01 owner is getting cute (who knows it may work), the 1.04 owner was glued to Jeudy, and the 1.05 owner felt he couldn’t pass on Burrow.
I attempt to make plays for Reagor and Akers as they fell, no dice anywhere.
At 2.04, at this point I had my first share of Viska in Draft A, this being Draft C; I just followed through on my convictions. I did consider Aiyuk but felt no loyalty to that pick. Taking perceived upside.
At 2.08, again I went heart. In this draft I was quite afraid there were 2 people that would snipe me on Edwards just to mess with me. We are a pretty good bunch and atleast 1 of them is fully aware of my interest in Edwards, the other 1 should have had an inkling after we facetimed through day 1 and day 2. Both picked between 2.04 and 3.04 so I wasn’t going to take the risk. Part of me wishes I would have taken Dillon and risked Edwards for 3.04, but it is what it is.
I did put out offers to try to get Dillon, in hindsight I could have gotten something done at 2.10 if I was a little more forthcoming and persistent, so that kind of sucks.
At 3.04, the original plan was Gibson with the way the board was falling. Didn’t happen that way. I had already taken Trautman in Draft A and was well aware of the boons assigned to his profile, 3.04 was my last pick of note in this draft so while closing my eyes to the availability of Moss-Kelley-Hamler; I see the upside and might regret it again—fatigue of the process and a need in that league for TE drove me back to Trautman.

RECAP

How did I come to my decisions? A lot of it was based on profile and statistical modeling. Even the best prospects by any modeled outcome have a 50-50 chance of succeeding. Most of your top prospects in any given year it’s about 20%. Try to make good value decisions, try to value more complete profiles, consider all of the intel out there on prospects but at the end of the day; who am I? Who am I to say CeeDee is going to succeed and do it big? I’m not, and I won’t; I just believe based on every piece of data out there that I like my odds of the coin flipping what I call. Same goes with Dobbins, Taylor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire. They just scream “I have a role and I’m going to give you fantasy points.”
We aren’t honest enough with ourselves when we draft these guys. I can speak glowingly of each and everyone one of my guys—hell I can speak negatively about the guys I drafted (Hi Laviska) but none of that matters, what matters is what the board looks like when it is your turn to draft, what it will look like after you draft, and whether any of it matters.

Tips to Help You with Your Upcoming Draft

  1. Go watch post-draft coach/GM interviews. They are fluff, they’ll say things that you’ll wrongly assign value to; there is a good argument that I’ve done that above. But some of them are going to tease to you just how highly they valued a guy (Diontae Johnson, round 1, Bruce Arians miffed that the Steelers sniped him), like Trautman, like Lamb. Will it eventually make these guys more successful? Nah, but it may just tell us how much rope a prospect has..
  2. Statistical models aren’t the end all be all—but dismissing them entirely is foolhardy at best, they are built to give you better odds. Problem is people like to make all their decisions on those odds. Does it matter if a model assigns a 22% probability to player A and a 19% probability of success to player B? Generally no, models based on football data do not have that level of viability. As a rule of thumb say a range of predicted success is 1% to 50%. I would consider the margins probably about 10 percentage points, so generally buckets guys between 40-50, 30-40, etc etc. But if one guy is 41% and another guy is 39% I'd say the decision point is muddled and unclear, but if one guys is 41% and the other guy is 29%, then I'd consider it; even then it's roughly 2:5 and 1:3 odds, are they really all that discernible in practice?
  3. Understand a players role, watch for yourself, and listen to others. I’d say my evaluation process is about 30% defining for myself, 20% listening to others, 30% statistical models, and 10% bias developed from learning about the player as a person, 10% hype baby.
  4. Nothing is the end all be all. I think I’ve highlighted that at every turn. We are going to pin ourselves to X means they’ll be successful. It could be a key/a tell at a player's potential, it likely is not.
submitted by Killtec7 to DynastyFF [link] [comments]

Whatever

There's a message popping up after a few seconds asking for subscription to continue, so I copied and pasted the article here.
ESSAY Why Europe Wins Everyone writes off the European Union as dull and prone to fracture. But the last decade shows that Brussels is smarter than Beijing, London, Moscow, and Washington.
Several months ago, when COVID-19 struck Europe, headlines portrayed overflowing hospitals in Italy, policy mistakes in Britain and Sweden, mismanaged senior care in Belgium, and misbehaving youth in Spanish discos. Two months later—after European governments imposed lockdowns, mask-wearing, testing, and tracing—the incidence of new cases plummeted. By July, vacationing Europeans were strolling through Piazza Navona in Rome, attending the opera in Salzburg, and dining in Paris.
Americans are not welcome to cross the Atlantic, however, because the United States has failed to match Europe’s resilience. Instead, new cases trended upward through the summer, leaving the average American 10 times more likely to contract the coronavirus than the average European.
Europe’s success is not coincidental. Studies show that countries with higher income equality and sound expert-based government regulation—areas in which European countries excel—tend to combat disease better. They are also desirable paces to live and do business: In a global poll, European countries grabbed seven of the top 10 spots on Forbes’s 2019 list of the nations with the best reputation for social, economic, and political success, whereas the United States barely cracked the top 40.
The coronavirus pandemic is only one of many examples of a general tendency among journalists, analysts, diplomats, and politicians to underestimate Europe.
The coronavirus pandemic is only one of many examples of a general tendency among journalists, analysts, diplomats, and politicians to underestimate Europe. For a generation, observers have bet against Europe’s future, arguing that it lacks the high growth, centralized political institutions, domestic legitimacy, and hard military tools required to have an effective global presence. Many observers confidently predicted that the euro would collapse, enlargement from 15 to 28 members would fail, and voters would reject European ideals. Yet the pundits were proved wrong: None of this came to pass.
Nowhere is Europe’s ability to confound the skeptics clearer than in foreign policy. Over the past decade, Europeans have faced four epochal foreign-policy challenges involving the strongest great-power competitors and most powerful forces of globalization in today’s world. In 2014, Russia attacked Ukraine. In 2015, waves of migrants flooded across the Mediterranean, and the next year, amid rising populist Euroskepticism, the Brexit referendum threatened to dissolve the European Union. And since 2016, Donald Trump, first as a candidate and then as U.S. president, has challenged NATO and trans-Atlantic trade.
In each case, newspapers published lurid reportage and think tanks issued dire predictions of Europe’s imminent collapse while politicians in Washington, Beijing, and Moscow wrote Europe off as strategically irrelevant. But in each case Europeans quietly prevailed.
Europeans have succeeded by deploying nonmilitary capabilities that they wield more effectively than anyone else in the world today: foreign aid, trade and employment agreements, the imposition of regulatory standards, the cultivation of international law and organization, firm but quiet diplomacy, and the promotion of democracy. Europe’s distinctive pragmatic use of civilian power may be too dull, slow-moving, and technocratic to attract attention. Yet in the end, it gets the job done more cost-effectively than other means employed by rival great powers.
In 2014, Russia attacked Ukraine, annexed Crimea, and covertly supported separatism in two of its eastern provinces—a flagrant violation of international law that posed the most serious security challenge to Europe in a generation. Since Russia enjoys unquestioned local military superiority and accords Ukraine greater historical, cultural, economic, and strategic importance than any other country, traditional realists such as Henry Kissinger and John Mearsheimer counseled Europe to let Ukraine go. Moscow, they warned, would respond ruthlessly, leading inevitably to a Western defeat.
European leaders ignored the naysayers and, instead, led a Western effort to face Russia down in its own backyard. Just six years later, the result is as favorable as is realistically possible. Ukraine—minus the 7 percent of its territory occupied by Russia and its sympathizers—is now an independent country forging an ever closer relationship with the West. The war in its eastern provinces is winding down: After more than 9,000 deaths by the end of 2015, Ukrainian military and civilian fatalities have dropped to around 100 per year. While Russia seems determined to stay in Crimea, negotiations over the eastern provinces inch forward, achieving an effective cease-fire and prisoner exchange this year.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is enjoying robust economic growth. Its democracy continues to consolidate: The election of Volodymyr Zelensky in early 2019 placed the country’s presidency in the hands of politicians far less tainted by corruption, oligarchy, or Russian ties. In separate polling, nearly 80 percent of Ukrainians now have a favorable view of the EU, and almost two-thirds believe that further external cooperation should be directed at eventual membership.
While primary credit lies with Ukrainians themselves, who sustained high military casualties, their sacrifice would have been futile without massive Western backing. Europe alone possesses the nonmilitary instruments needed to prevail against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
For decades, EU officials had been quietly helping the Ukrainian government integrate with the West by adapting its market legislation to EU standards—a process meant to culminate in an association agreement with the EU in 2014. Fearing that such an agreement would tie Ukraine to the West in perpetuity, Putin pressed then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to reject it. What no one could have foreseen was that, in response, pro-Western protesters would occupy Kyiv’s Independence Square for three months, many waving EU flags—ultimately triggering a revolution that ended only when Yanukovych fled to Russia and a pro-Western president took office.
If the soft power of European values helped spark the revolution in Ukraine, Europe’s coordinated economic, political, and legal aid sustained it.
If the soft power of European values helped spark the revolution, Europe’s coordinated economic, political, and legal aid sustained it. EU and member state aid has kept war-torn Ukraine solvent, providing about $20 billion since 2014, compared with less than $2 billion in economic aid from the United States. Europe supports about twice as much aid as the International Monetary Fund does as well. An estimated 4 million Ukrainians work abroad, most of them in Europe, remitting back nearly $16 billion annually—10 percent of the country’s GDP—whereas only a few thousand go to the United States. Under the EU association agreement, Ukraine has expanded trade with Europe, which now takes nearly $25 billion annually in Ukrainian exports, more than 20 times that which goes to the United States.
European governments have voted unanimously every six months to renew trade, investment, and travel sanctions on Russia despite Moscow’s punishing countersanctions. They do so despite the fact that while the United States, Canada, Japan, and Australia all imposed common sanctions (and faced countersanctions from Moscow), 90 percent of the costs fall on Europeans, who are the ones with a traditional trading relationship with Russia.
The EU’s European Neighborhood Policy provides an extensive integrated program of economic, political, and legal reform, aimed at aligning Ukraine over the long term with the West. The EU Commission wields competition law and infrastructure spending to limit the power of Gazprom, the Russian fossil fuel monopoly, and to ensure continued energy supplies to Ukraine. Working through the Normandy Format, French and German leaders have led the diplomatic effort to defuse the military conflict—initiating, according to one study, eight times more high-level diplomatic communication with Russia and Ukraine than their U.S. counterparts.
To be sure, the United States does provide most of Ukraine’s military aid, yet such assistance totals just a 10th of EU civilian aid discussed above—and the Ukrainian government is constrained to spend it on U.S.-produced conventional arms, training, and medical supplies largely available on the open market. The Trump administration’s much-heralded sale of lethal military equipment—Javelin anti-tank missiles—to Ukraine arrived only in 2018, long after Russian forces had pulled back, unlikely to return. And the United States has imposed the explicit condition that the missiles must be stored almost a thousand miles from the front and cannot be used in combat. In contrast to European aid, U.S. military assistance is more symbolic than real.
In 2015, just over 1 million irregular migrants arrived in Europe—an influx higher than in any period since the immediate aftermath of World War II. Many were Syrian refugees seeking asylum. Hundreds of millions of people across the globe desire to migrate, and European countries remain some of the most desired destinations, leading many to view such waves of mass migration as inevitable and irresistible. Conservative pundits proclaimed “the death of Europe.”
Yet Europe’s spectacularly swift and successful response demonstrates that mass migration can be controlled. Since 2015, the flow of irregular migrants has declined by 88 percent—from just over a million to about 123,000 in 2019—and has continued to trend downward this year. Since fewer people brave the journey, fewer die at sea: Last year’s total of 1,319 dead and missing is lower than any year on record—though, of course, this calculation ignores the fate of those stuck in transit camps.
Europe’s spectacularly swift and successful response to the migration crisis demonstrates that mass migration can be controlled.
European governments achieved this goal by adopting tough but effective policies. They constructed walls, fences, and high-tech sensing systems. They criminalized the transport of migrants, even on commercial ferries or aircraft. They removed EU policing and rescue boats from the seas. They cracked down on NGOs that assisted migrants (and, allegedly, helped coordinate their movements) by placing police on their vessels, impounding boats, and initiating prosecutions. When European navies spotted migrant vessels in international waters, they towed them back to an uncertain fate in Africa or Asia.
Europe struck deals with transit countries such as Turkey, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. All have agreed to police their shores, house millions of potential migrants, and work with the EU’s border control agency, Frontex. In exchange, they receive foreign aid, trade concessions, visa-free travel, and border control equipment. Further EU migration missions are now dotted through Chad, Mali, and the rest of Africa.
European idealists and migrant rights activists accuse European governments of hypocrisy: Are they not betraying the spirit of their ethical and international legal obligations to permit any refugee or migrant to seek international protection? Conditions in European detention areas are indeed often overcrowded and uncomfortable, as attested by the images that recently circulated from Greece’s burned-down Moria camp. Extra-European detention camps are especially troubling. This year, even before the pandemic, the United Nations suspended operations at its transit center in Tripoli, Libya, because it could not ensure safety. Ramona Lenz of Medico International—a public health NGO funded in part by the German government—has criticized European governments for enlisting neighboring states to serve as the “bouncers of Europe”—and then averting their gaze as those states abuse the human rights of migrants.
Yet European governments have remained unsentimentally resolute. Donald Tusk, then-president of the EU’s most important decision-making body, the European Council, declared when the policy was adopted: “We may not agree on everything, but we agree on the main goal, which is stemming illegal migration to Europe.”
European governments chose this strategy because they are pragmatic. Their citizens consider immigration the most important issue facing Europe, with majorities of up to 10 to 1 opposing more migrants, even before the 2015 wave. Migration threatens the stability of Europe’s moderate political systems: No government would last long today if it supported uncontrolled entry from culturally dissimilar regions. This would undermine other policies. In Britain, for example, citizens listed migration as one of the most important political issues facing the country in every year from 2001 to 2016, with a substantial majority of those polled wanting to reduce the number of migrants—a trend that eventually helped fuel the Brexit vote.
In the long term, European leaders view the reduction of uncontrolled migration, brutally if necessary, as the only way forward. Yet there is a silver lining. Doing so can create the political space to admit more migrants on selective economic and humanitarian grounds. Recent polls suggest that this may be correct: Public concern about migration is slowly declining.
Over the past two decades, extreme-right populist parties with anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant, anti-terrorist, and anti-Europe appeal have increased their vote shares across Europe. They now participate in government in six countries. In Britain, they spearheaded Brexit. And in the last two decades, scholars—and, it seems, journalists—have written more about extreme-right populist parties than all other European parties combined.
Leading foreign-policy pundits argue that homegrown extremism in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere—and not rising great-power challengers—now poses the greatest threat to the post-Cold War liberal international order. In Europe, many fear that extremist governments might win more EU exit referendums or join Trump and Putin in adopting protectionist and pro-Russia stances.
Yet this proved to be journalistic hype. Rather than panicking over populist threats, European leaders calmly drained their energy by dampening migration and terrorism and hanging tough in negotiations with Britain—to which they can now add the political benefit of managing the coronavirus pandemic well. Today, European unity—in any case, a practical necessity for small and highly interdependent states—is more popular than at any time in recent history.
In fact, populists were never as powerful as headlines made them seem. Consider the case of Marine Le Pen, who heads the French extreme-right National Rally party. When she ran for the French presidency in 2017, newspapers across the globe proclaimed, as one New York Times article put it, that “the next president of France will be Marine Le Pen” and speculated what her administration would do once in office. Yet her campaign was clearly hopeless from the start. All of her potential rivals, polls showed, could defeat her by comfortable double-digit margins, and Emmanuel Macron eventually did so by winning twice as many votes. Today, the National Rally holds just seven of 577 seats in the National Assembly.
Outside of Britain, extreme Euroskepticism enjoys scant support.
The impotence of the extreme-right in France is no exception. Outside of Britain, extreme Euroskepticism enjoys scant support. Of 27 EU members (plus Britain), 12 have no extreme-right or Euroskeptic party at all or none that scores above 10 percent in national elections. In 10 more countries, including France and Germany, other parties consistently exclude extremists from government coalitions. In three more—Latvia, Estonia, and Bulgaria—extremists participate only as minority coalition partners, which reduces their influence close to zero.
Only in Britain, Hungary, and Poland does an extreme-right or Euroskeptic party actually lead the government. Of course, their extremism poses threats to the quality of democracy and rule of law, as in the United States, but their effect on foreign policy is slight. Migration is the only EU issue on which policy has moved in a direction extremists favor—but this, as we have seen, is only because the position held by extremists happens to be that of large majorities of moderate voters in nearly every country. Otherwise, Poland and Hungary, both of which are among the biggest beneficiaries of EU policies and have exceptionally pro-EU populations, follow their neighbors on nearly every aspect of external policy, from sanctions on Russia to development aid to Africa—dissenting occasionally only on symbolic declarations. That leaves Brexit as the only major Euroskeptic achievement of a populist party in recent years.
Yet Brexit is, at best, an exception that proves the rule. That it happened at all reflects a perfect storm of astonishingly unlikely circumstances unrepeatable elsewhere. Britain is the only European country where Euroskepticism attracts more than a tiny fringe of the electorate. Even so, Brexit could happen only because a prime minister overruled his advisors to call an unnecessary referendum, which happened to fall at the only brief moment in the last five years when a majority of Britons opposed EU membership. Brexit was later ratified by an election in which a 44 percent vote share gave Boris Johnson a comfortable majority: Without Britain’s electoral institutions, the most biased in Europe, a pro-EU majority would have ruled instead.
Today, Brexit remains stalled. Britain is much smaller and dependent on Europe’s good will to gain access for nearly half of its exports, particularly of services like banking. This allows Europe to take a tough stance in negotiations over the terms of the U.K. withdrawal. British Brexiteers once hoped that Trump would bail them out with a quick trade agreement. Yet U.S.-U.K. negotiations have gone nowhere after the United States badgered the British about agricultural imports and aircraft subsidies. Trump embarrasses prime ministers on his visits, remains unpopular among the British public, and is struggling to be reelected. Britain is running out of options.
These realities, combined with the more general lack of support for their Euroskeptic views, have led populists elsewhere to moderate their ideas rather than follow London’s lead. Five years ago, 15 extreme-right parties, including Le Pen’s National Rally, advocated a Brexit-style withdrawal from the EU or the eurozone. Today none do. Even so, the most worrisome populist challenger in Europe, Matteo Salvini of the League party, is hemorrhaging popular support to the Brothers of Italy, a new and less Euroskeptic right-wing party. The wave of populist Euroskepticism seems to have crested.
Among Europe’s major geopolitical assets is its close partnership with the United States, which has formed the bedrock of Western defense and economic policies for 75 years. In 2016, as a presidential candidate, Trump called all this into question, declaring NATO “obsolete” and threatening to withdraw if Europeans failed to meet their informal pledge to spend 2 percent of their GDPs on defense—a threat he has repeated often since. He seems obsessed with Europe’s bilateral trade surplus with the United States—especially that of Germany.
Yet as president, Trump has been more bark than bite. European defense spending has risen only marginally, with just the United Kingdom and a half-dozen Eastern European countries likely to exceed 2 percent anytime soon. Nonetheless, within three months of entering office, the new president took credit for the problem being fixed and declared NATO “not obsolete.” Vice President Mike Pence, backed by cabinet officials, assured allies that Washington’s commitment remained “unwavering.” The most Trump has done was to approve plans in July to remove about 6,000 of more than 60,000 troops in Europe. But commentators agree that this bit of pre-election theatrics is unlikely to result in real policy change, which would take years to execute and cost billions of dollars and would be strategically insignificant even if it did.
Longer term, Europe need not worry that the United States will leave NATO. European countries remain America’s most trustworthy and capable allies. U.S. Defense Department planners, important domestic constituencies, and an overwhelming bipartisan majority in Congress favor both defending Europe and deterring Russia. Moreover, more than half of U.S. forces stationed in NATO countries are not there to defend Europe from Russia but to provide indispensable logistical support for the projection of U.S. power in the Mediterranean, Middle East, Africa, and Eurasia. They man Air Force bases, transport hubs, headquarters, and hospitals in Germany, as well as the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet, based in Naples, Italy. U.S. Africa Command, for example, is headquartered in the German city of Stuttgart because the United States was unable to find an African country to host it. Without NATO, every delivery of troops or materiel, evacuation of a wounded soldier, naval mission in the Mediterranean, rapid reaction action, multinational training exercise, heavy bombing mission, or trip to headquarters would require an extra 6,000-mile trip to or from the United States.
Trump also took aim at European economic interests, grabbing headlines by repeatedly threatening to impose tariffs on EU exports. Pundits worried that trans-Atlantic disruption might upend the global trading system. Yet the administration has provoked only two small squabbles: In 2018, Trump imposed tariffs on European steel and aluminum, and last year he blocked a bundle of goods in response to European subsidies to Airbus. Neither was new. All but one U.S. administration since that of Richard Nixon has placed special tariffs on steel—a large unionized industry concentrated in U.S. swing states. And the World Trade Organization fully authorized the compensatory tariffs on Airbus products in October 2019 as part of a settlement of a 15-year dispute.
When Trump imposed tariffs, Europe swiftly retaliated with sanctions carefully targeted at voters in U.S. swing states.
Yet these two sets of tariffs targeted just $7.5 billion in European exports each—minuscule compared with the $300 billion in Chinese products hit by Trump tariffs. As a result—until the COVID-19 crisis—trans-Atlantic exports and affiliate sales continued to increased more than 20 percent after 2016, whereas U.S. trade with China declined significantly.
No trans-Atlantic trade war erupted because Trump did not dare provoke it. The backlash would be fierce since U.S. and European firms are far more heavily cross-invested than firms in any other part of the world: 61 percent of total U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) is in Europe, and 68 percent of FDI coming into the United States comes from Europe, so U.S. corporate interests are inseparably linked to Europe. Even when EU and U.S. economic interests diverge, Trump must tread even more carefully than with China because the world’s largest trading bloc with a population of almost 500 million is a powerful adversary. Trade authority is centralized in Brussels. When Trump imposed tariffs, Europe swiftly retaliated with sanctions carefully targeted at voters in U.S. swing states.
The EU plays offense as well. Quietly taking advantage of Trump’s diffidence toward globalization, Europe concluded ambitious trade agreements with Japan, Mexico, and Canada, with Australia, Brazil, and other countries to follow. Exploiting the threat of exclusion from the lucrative European market, the EU has become the world’s de facto regulatory authority—something the Columbia Law professor Anu Bradford calls the “Brussels effect.” Farmers in Nebraska, for instance, grow pesticide-free products so that they meet EU standards. Europe recently imposed tough privacy standards on U.S. tech giants and is considering new digital taxes. The Trump administration objected, but Europe did not back down. Instead, it helped convince California to adopt similar regulations, which went into effect in January.
Journalists, pundits, and politicians overlook Europe’s record of success because it is, in a word, dull. Europe’s quiet and patient style of foreign policy lacks the flash and charisma of old-fashioned crisis diplomacy conducted in the shadow of coercive force. Unlike Trump’s America, Europe does not grab headlines by precipitously launching trade wars—or real ones. Unlike Putin’s Russia, it does not subvert elections and pollute the internet. Unlike Xi Jinping’s China, it does not incarcerate ethnic minorities or provoke military clashes along its borders. Old-school geopoliticians are baffled (and often bored) by decisions taken by Brussels-based institutions where it is difficult to tell who is in charge—or even, as Kissinger once quipped, whom to call.
Europe’s pragmatism also often frustrates idealists. European leaders, knowing that they cannot solve all the world’s problems, pick their battles carefully. They eschew precipitous actions and hopeless causes that in retrospect so often seem ill-judged, such as toppling Saddam Hussein or ejecting Russia from Crimea. Instead, they slowly advance, often for decades, workable solutions to problems such as European enlargement, Iranian nuclear weapons, or climate change, punctuated by setbacks. In a case like Belarus today, it is perhaps overambitious to ask whether Europeans can topple the current authoritarian government tomorrow—but it seems reasonable to ask whether they can create incentives for its peaceful and positive evolution over the next decades. And what they do serves Europe’s interests.
Boring though this incremental and technocratic policymaking may be, it works. This has been shown not just by the examples above but in Europe’s recent decisions to provide 750 billion euros ($826 billion) in added financial firepower to stabilize the euro; to craft a system to screen Chinese investment in Europe; to switch to European-built 5G mobile networks; to promote peace and development in the Western Balkans; and now, without fear of a British veto, to coordinate tax policies.
In the wake of COVID-19, many in the United States have asked themselves whether democratic countries can sustain farsighted, data-driven, expert-based policies. Would-be Trumps and Putins question whether such policies are even desirable, preferring to appeal to national greatness. The answer is in Europe: In the 21st century, such policies are not only sustainable but successful. Europe is the future. This story appears in the Fall 2020 print issue.
Andrew Moravcsik is professor of politics and director of the European Union Program at Princeton University. Foreign Policy Magazine FP EVENTS FP STUDIOS FP ANALYTICS FP PEACEGAMES SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES REPRINT PERMISSIONS WRITER’S GUIDELINES WORK AT FP FP GUIDES – GRADUATE EDUCATION FP FOR EDUCATION FP ARCHIVE BUY BACK ISSUES MEET THE STAFF ADVERTISE WITH FP CONTACT US PRIVACY POLICY POWERED BY WORDPRESS.COM VIP © 2020, THE SLATE GROUP
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Tomb of Acquisitions Campaign Diary - Part 1

Tomb of Acquisitions - Episode 1 - What's a Gun?

Premise

This campaign diary series will be covering my experiences preparing and running the Tomb of Annihilation published adventure, with some sprinkling in of the Acquisitions Inc. sourcebook for additional flavor. This game will be played as part of an actual-play podcast (The Rolling Loud Podcast), and so I thought that it might be interesting to write up and share my insights in preparing and running an adventure for a show. I’d also like to hear your feedback, especially your experiences running or playing Tomb of Annihilation, or about using Acquisitions Inc. mechanics in your games. I will not be linking to the show here because I think it goes against the subreddit rules, though I encourage you to check it out so you can follow along.
This campaign diary will not get very deep into my planning of the overarching campaign plot. Since this is a recorded and released story, I want to keep certain things in my back pocket. Instead, this series will largely focus on my preparation for each session. I will grant a little insight into my campaign-planning process though. In Kobold Press’s Kobold Guide to Gamemastering, Monica Valentinelli has an excellent essay on planning your campaign in four stages: Brainstorming, Sketching the Plot, Recording Wants and Needs, and finally Outlining. If you have the means I highly recommend reading her essay because the process she lays out gives you an excellent design skeleton for your campaign.
In this adventure the PCs will all be members of MacGuffin’s Repo Company, a mid-tier adventuring company that was based out of Nightstone. Now that their former base of operations was destroyed in a giant raid, the members of MacGuffin’s Repo are eagerly accepting as many contracts as they can.

Planning

Before I continue, it is important that I make a few choices I made clear. First, the characters are all rolled for stats and are starting out at level 3 instead of 1. Also, I have emphasized that this game will be a meat grinder (Well, a meat grinder by my standards anyways, I tend to be a merciful DM). Next, I decided to throw out the Syndra Sylvane intro. After reading the book’s suggested intro and contrasting it with a few guides that suggested a different opening, I decided that Syndra isn’t really adding a whole lot to the narrative herself besides the map. So, I decided to substitute the Merchant Prince Jessamine in Syndra’s place.
First, having a planned meeting with Jeassamine would give the party immediate direction once they arrived in Port Nyanzaru. This is something that I was anxious about while reading about the city in the book, because Port Nyanzaru can be overwhelming, and the book lacks direction outside of telling the players about some taverns. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but when I’m trying to plan for a recording I don’t want a lot of time spent going “um where should we go?” Next, Jessamine also suffers from the death curse, so she’s just as invested in finding its source and destroying it as Syndra. Also, as a Merchant Prince it makes sense to me that Jessamine would have the means to conduct the same research that Syndra did, and could provide the same rewards.
With no more Syndra Sylvane to teleport the characters, the party needed a new way to Port Nyanzaru. The guides I read that suggested cutting out Syndra also suggested opening the campaign by sailing into the city and being attacked by pirates, and I thought that was a fun idea so I decided to run with that. The party would be sailing aboard The Brazen Pegasus, since that was the ship mentioned in Tomb. As a side note, I am just having the timer for the Death Curse start ticking down from Day 1 of this adventure. I will not be reducing the timer by the length of the boat journey because it’s not really fair to the players, since they didn’t choose this opening.
And so that brings us to the opening scene of the campaign:

Part 1 - Setting the Scene – Aboard the Pegasus

Our story begins with the party sailing to Chult aboard The Brazen Pegasus, a 60-foot sloop built for speed. The Pegasus is captained by Ortimay Swift, a female rock gnome who is both clever and calm. The first mate is Grig Ruddell, a hulking man whose face is almost hidden by a heavy beard streaked with gray. Other than shouting orders at the crew and conversing in low tones with Captain Swift, Ruddell barely speaks.
Your voyage to Chult began when the company received a job offer from a highly unusual client: Prince Jessamine, one of Port Nyanzaru's seven Merchant Princes who rule the city. She requested a group of capable adventurers be sent to her with haste, with the promise of more details and pay upon your arrival. With a sense of eagerness and anticipation, you set sail out of Waterdeep and made your way through the Sea of Swords, stopping occasionally so that the ship could trade and resupply.
And so after a long journey aboard the Pegasus, Chult has finally come into view as the ship makes its final approach to Port Nyanzaru. Even from a distance you can see that the port is busy, and many ships are anchored in its harbor.
This is the point where I’ll have my players introduce their characters, and perhaps describe what they’ve been doing to keep busy during their time sailing to Chult.

The Party

After character introductions are handled, it’s time for the pace of the session to pick up. So, to start getting some action I’ll have the party roll perception checks to notice the following:
  1. Notice the smell of rotting fish. (DC10)
  2. Notice that the waters on the starboard side are being unnaturally displaced, as if a ship were atop them. (DC14)
If any players succeed on the check to notice the displaced waters, then the party will not be surprised when pirates jump aboard and attack the Pegasus:
The smell of rotting fish fills the air, causing your eyes to sting and threatening to make you lose your lunch all at the same time. Suddenly, you hear orders being shouted and grappling hooks seem to fly out of nowhere, catching the railing along the starboard side of The Pegasus. A moment later your hearts fill with dread as a galley materializes alongside your own ship, a charm of invisibility being dispelled. The massive vessel sports a crew of bloodthirsty bandits and the ship’s name: The Rancid Ghost. Captain Swift's voice rings out, "Pirates!! Come on you scallywags, to arms!" Roll Initiative!
So, a little about the attacking pirates. Like I mentioned earlier, this encounter was another suggestion offered by numerous guides on running Tomb, and it seemed like a fun idea so I included it. I wanted this encounter to have that “Ambushed by Pirates” feel, and so I had the pirate ship sneak up on the Pegasus while cloaked by invisibility. Now, the caveat of this encounter is that it culminates in the destruction of the pirate ship by Aremag, Chult’s local dragon turtle.
Since the attacking ship would be destroyed, I decided that these pirates should not be any of the three listed by the book. Instead, I came up with Captain Ray Mangold and The Rancid Ghost, and decided that they would be added to the list of pirate ships and captains wanted by Port Nyanzaru’s authorities (specifically Zindar). Now, when the players arrive and are greeted by Zindar, he will thank and reward them for dealing with one of these pirate crews and tell the party of the bounties on the other three, giving us a side-quest if the party wants to take it.
Imgur link of Battlemap
Now, onto the combat. Since we are recording remotely, we’re tracking combat through Roll20 and DnD Beyond’s Combat Tracker, which I personally am a big fan of. The Pegasus is being assaulted by an advance squad of 5 enemies: one is a Pirate Captain (Ghosts of Saltmarsh), another is a Pirate Deck Wizard (GoS), and the other three are your typical Bandits (MM). This should present a hard, but not deadly, combat challenge for the PCs. I have a handful of other crew members nearby, who’s competence I will dial up or down depending on how the combat progresses.
I want this combat to showcase cool character abilities while also demonstrating to the players that these fights will be dangerous. To do this, I’m going to try my best to knock one of the PCs off of the side of the Pegasus with the pirate wizard’s gust of wind spell. Now, this won’t kill them outright. But, it will present the players with a challenge they aren’t accustomed to, and will make the pirates seem like a real threat.
Since this is a podcast, we are playing “on the clock” in a sense. We aim for our episode length to be around an hour and a half, and combats tend to eat big chunks of that time. I have two tools to help counteract this combat from dragging on beyond what is fun:
With that being said, this combat will still probably serve as the first half of the episode, and will also serve as its action-piece. The latter half will be mostly RP based around the sights of Port Nyanzaru, and the meeting with Prince Jessamine that will set up the overarching plot of this adventure.
When Aremag arrives:
Suddenly and seemingly out of nowhere, the surface of the water is breached by a gigantic turtle. The world seems to freeze in place as the turtle's head and upper torso hang in the air above the fight, water shimmering across its blue-green scales and shell. Finally, the great beast plummets back down to the sea, crashing down upon the Rancid Ghost and completely destroying the ship. Pirates cry out in alarm and jump from the ship to avoid being crushed by the turtle, but few make it. Captain Swift and the crew of the Pegasus cheer at this glorious sight.
“Hail, the great guardian Aremag has shown us favor on this day!”
After the combat is all done and the pirates dealt with, the party will officially arrive at Port Nyanzaru and step foot onto Chult, forever changing their lives :O. Also, it serves as a good break in the episode.

Part 2 - Port Nyanzaru – Arrival

Having successfully defeated the pirates (with a little help from a dragon turtle), The Brazen Pegasus calmly sails to a tropical city that appears to be blossoming underneath the blazing sun. The familiar sounds of a harbor — creaking ropes, slapping waves, heavy barrels rolling across cobblestones — mingle with voices shouting and cursing in an unfamiliar language filled with clicks, inhalations, and sing-songy words that make it sound almost musical. The aroma of unfamiliar spices and tropical fruit mixes with the wharfside smells of fish, tar, and canvas.
However, what really catches your attention is the statue at the center of the harbor. The statue represents an ancient Chultan king in full regalia, resplendent in a loincloth of leopard skin and a headdress of feathers, shells, and tyrannosaurus teeth; draped in a cape of girallon fur and monkey tails; and wielding the traditional oval shield and yklwa of Chult. Residents call it Na N’buso, the Great King.
Soon enough, The Brazen Pegasus is hailed by the Port Nyanzaru's Harbormaster, and the ship finally drops anchor and docks. Up close, you are able to see that the Harbormaster is a golden half-dragon wearing large spectacles and white and blue robes, adorned with a golden trim.
Screenshot of arrival to PN
I’m having the players arrive at the Royal Docks (area 11) because I want them to be greeted by Zindar on their arrival, and am justifying this choice by saying that Jessamine’s letter grants them permission to dock in the otherwise restricted area. Upon arrival, Zindar will welcome Captain Swift and the Pegasus like old friends, and the two will have something resembling the following exchange:
Z - "Captain Swift! I am glad to see you back in one piece! How was your journey?"
CS - "Mostly fine right up until the end, damned pirates made a move on us right before we got to the harbor,"
Z - "Damn that criminal scum! The ship seems to be in fine enough condition, though. Who attacked you? Was it that cheat, Laskilar?"
CS - "No, it was Mangold as a matter of fact. Bastard snuck up on us with some cloak of invisibility and got the jump on us. Things wouldn't have gone so well for us if it weren't for these folk, who jumped into the fight right away. And a little help from Aremag didn’t hurt neither."
Z - "So the turtle sunk The Rancid Ghost, eh? Not bad, not bad at all."
Zindar focuses on the members of MacGuffin Repo. Co. and says, "Well, if any of you are looking to hunt some more pirates and make a quick buck doing it, the Merchant Princes have authorized me to offer a bounty of 2,000 gp for each pirate ship that is captured and brought into port, and a bonus 500 gp for the capture of each pirate captain. As it stands, I can't pay you that much for sunken ships. But, I am still believing that you deserve a reward for your help in defending the Pegasus."
I’m hoping that the players jump in on their exchange, and I’d love for them to try and wring some info out of Zindar, but at the same time I’m not holding my breath. Currently, their only clear objective is “Meet with Prince Jessamine”, and so that is what I anticipate they will want to do first. As you can see from the screenshot of Port Nyanzaru, I have placed my PCs pretty much right next to area 13, which is the Harbormaster’s Office. Outside of the office is an information board with listings of guides for hire, something that the party will need to traverse the jungle, which they may or may not be interested in.
The guides also add their own component to the story, which can either be a boon or a curse to the party. I debated for a while whether I’d leave all the guides available like the book says, or if I’d only make the ones that jumped out to me available for hire. Ultimately, I decided to leave them all in because this is something that will shape the player’s journey, and so I think they should make the choice. The players may want to hire a guide first, but without a real purpose to start exploring the jungle I imagine that they’ll keep making their way to Jessamine’s villa.

Exploring the City – Watch Out! Dino Race!

After disembarking from the Pegasus, the members of MacGuffin's Repo Co. leave the busy docks and enter the city proper. You find yourselves by the Harbormaster's Office, outside of which is a bulletin board that provides the names and whereabouts of several wilderness guides.
The first impression you have of Port Nyanzaru is an explosion of color. Buildings are painted in bright shades of blue, green, orange, and salmon pink, or their walls are adorned with murals portraying giant reptiles and mythical heroes.
Every building sports baskets and clay urns of colorful flowers or is draped in leafy, flowering vines. Minstrels in bright clothing adorned with feathers and shells perform on street corners. Multicolored pennants and sun awnings flutter atop the city walls. A crowd of children dressed in feathered hats and capes races past you, squealing in delighted terror as a street performer costumed as a big-toothed lizard stomps and roars behind them. The whole city seems to be bustling, sweating, laughing, swearing, and singing.
As you make your way through Port Nyanzaru, the size of the city starts to sink in. The wonders of Port Nyanzaru rivals that of Waterdeep or Baldur's Gate. Here, people use dinosaurs as beasts of burden, and the city sports a network of large water tubes. These tubes are massive, elevated connected pipes that are maintained and protected by three bound water elementals. People ride in them to quickly travel to different areas of the city. The tubes are ten feet wide and tall, providing ample space for even some dinosaurs to ride in.
While strolling through the city, you pass by a Temple of Gond, god of craft and smithwork. Instead of featuring a forge at its center like most temples to Gond, the boxy stone structure features an immense fountain whose water jets shift continually to create amazing shapes.
Crowds hustle around you as you take in the breathtaking beauty of the city when suddenly the brilliant sound of a trumpet blare echoes across the ward, and the people of Port Nyanzaru quickly begin to clear the city street.
First, you feel the ground begin to shake. Then you see three dinosaurs round the corner of the street, charging abreast towards you. Two are hadrosaurs, the other a young triceratops. The dinos are loosely tacked, and their riders seem to be hanging on for dear life rather than steering the great beasts. They quickly charge past you, and are soon followed by a string of four more dinosaurs that rush by before another trumpet blare signals that the streets are once again safe to walk, and crowds casually fill the streets of Port Nyanzaru while you struggle to get over the shock and bewilderment at what you just witnessed.
This is a good place for me to drop in a side quest or random encounter, but only a handful of the suggested options resonate with me and I don’t want to distract the players quite yet. Also, in reference to the water tubes I described. They are an idea from Sean McGovern’s Tomb of Annihilation Companion, which is available on the DM’s Guild. The guide is an excellent tool and is full of cool ideas like the water tubes.
You continue past the marvelous sight and quickly find yourselves in Port Nyanzaru's Merchant Ward, a vibrant district that encompasses the western half of the city. This is the upper-class section of Port Nyanzaru, home to the city's Merchant Princes as well as other affluent individuals, who are mostly made up of successful merchants and other elites. In fact, the district name is actually a bit of a misnomer, as the majority of the city's merchants and traders actually live and work out of the Market Ward.
As you stroll through the Merchant Ward, you approach the magnificent Temple of Savras, the god of truth and divination. This temple is one of the oldest, grandest buildings in the city. The tiled roof of its great dome resembles an unblinking eye, staring skyward, an homage to the god Savras (whose symbol is a monstrous eye).
Though I am introducing the temple of Savras to the characters, I am not going to have the party meet Grandfather Zitembe until after they’re hired by Jessamine because they need to have an idea of the grander mission that lays before them before they hear from the priest.

Meeting Prince Jessamine

Just beyond the temple is your destination: the Merchant Prince Jessamine's manor. You stand before steps that lead up to a set of double doors marking the entrance to the ruler's residence.
The guard ushers you into the palace's entryway, and you see that Prince Jessamine's home is a lavish villa; open and airy, its pillars and walls painted with colorful serpents. The mansion's decorative stone fountains and fonts also share a similar serpentine motif. The entryway is a pleasant, breezy, tiled courtyard that includes a splashing fountain and luscious green plants. You also see two more guards posted at the threshold to the inner chambers of the palace.
The guard points to an adjoining room and says, "You all may take a seat in the waiting room while I tell the Prince of your arrival."
The guard then turns to leave, going upstairs to fetch the Prince, and soon returns to their post. Around ten minutes later, Prince Jessamine makes her way down the grand staircase. She walks with a royal's stride, her chin held high. Her hair is styled in a medium-sized afro with one streak of grey tracing the left side. She wears a fine sleeveless gown that trails behind her, but as she draws near you notice that parts of her arms are bandaged.
Now that the party has accepted the main quest of this campaign, I want to offer something more immediate that will lead us into our next episode.
Now, depending on time the episode may end here or go on until the tavern. For whichever inn they choose (ideally the Thundering Lizard), they will meet Volo and have a chance to participate in a little tavern game called “Dwarf’s Bane” that I picked up from Tavern Games, a product on the DM’s Guild authored by u/lemongrovelovers. I like minigames and I think that a bar game against Volo could provide for some good banter and roleplaying to close out the episode, with the next ep picking up the following morning in anticipation of the Dino Race.

Running the Game

This section will be a lot briefer than the planning section since the podcast has been released and you can listen to the finer details there. Here I will be self-evaluating how things went and what could have been improved, and this is the section where I would like to hear from you all the most.
So, after the gang’s usual misfires in starting the episode, things get off to a nice start with character introductions and the initial action going according to plan. I almost knocked Reina off the side of the Pegasus, and although I didn’t initially design a DEX save for her to grab onto the side, when the idea was brought up it seemed more than reasonable so I allowed it. At the end of the combat Reina got her cool moment in the spotlight by climbing back over the railing and absolutely destroying the pirate captain. Even with the setback of one PC being mostly out of the combat, the party had this encounter well in hand, so the crew served as a backdrop instead of as active participants. Aremag showed up right on time, and we soon moved on to Port Nyanzaru. I think this combat was an excellent introductory encounter since each character had a moment where they shined in the spotlight, which is all I can ask for. And in the end, it took up more than half of the episode, which is a little more than I predicted. However, there wasn’t a point where I felt like it was dragging.
Arriving to Port Nyanzaru also went according to how I envisioned, almost down to the letter. The party got their prize from Zindar and decided that their best course of action would be to see Prince Jessamine as soon as they could, which is completely reasonable. The only part that surprised me was when the party was considering turning down Jessamine’s offer for one of them to race her dino in tomorrow’s Unchained Race. I thought this would be an easy “yes”, but it turned into a fun little debate and I liked that. In the end, we decided to end the episode in the tavern where the players met Volo and were about to play Dwarf’s Bane when Declan, the trickster cleric, made a wager of such unusual proportions that I deemed it a good place to end the episode.
Looking back on this session as a whole, I am happy with how things went. I think the first half of the session is really strong, but I regret not throwing in some kind of action in the latter half. Instead, it was largely filled with narration as I led the players through Port Nyanzaru. Full disclosure: we ran “episode 1” of this campaign (minus Batuk) a few weeks ago with the book’s introduction, but due to some unfortunate technical difficulties we lost an audio file and were forced to scrap the episode. In this “lost episode”, I had the party meet K’lahu and do his side quest. This time around I didn’t want to run the party through the same gauntlet, even though I liked K’lahu’s inclusion. I didn’t include any of the other side quests in this episode because they just come off as too obtuse to me, but if I could go back in time I think that including some sort of action for the players to jump in on would have made this session even better.
So with all that being said, I hope that I haven’t rambled on for too long and that you all may have found something interesting in my write-up, and I’d love to hear your thoughts so please comment below and give me some actionable feedback. If all goes according to plan, you should be hearing from me again soon.
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I am about to post the 3000 most common words in the English lexicon. Wish me luck...

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