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Hey all. Got a bit of feedback regarding my blog and posts and it was a bit positive, so here's my Day 3 writeup. Text below, link to website and full Google Document tracking tips is there:
https://valueburglar.wordpress.com/2019/03/14/cheltenham-festival-2019-day-3-tips/
Day 2 was much better than Day 1! With 9pts / £90 staked, and 12 pts / £120 returned, that’s the healthy sort of return we want consistently. Of course, we’re down overall, but forgive me for not worrying about that too much right now at the nascent stages of this venture.
It was also a good day for punters in general, with Altior retaining his crown (albeit with a little scare); Tiger Roll dominating; and the well-backed Band of Outlaws and Envoi Allen obliging, too.
Without further ado, here are my musings ahead of Thursday’s racing. There are a lot of very big fields and as a result, hopefully loads of value to find. Let’s continue the revival!
JLT
Joel over at 2pts win, at the time of writing, simply says “Defi Du Seuil will win. 1pt win Defi Du Seuil @ 3/1” – and while I assume he’ll be a little more expansive on this in due course, I can’t really disagree. But right now, he’s 5/2, and that’s a little too skinny for my liking. Thus, we take him on with just the one bet. I think Kildisart (9/1 generally) is the one to be on board at the prices. If his jumping improves (it looks a bit novicey, which is fair for a novices’ race!), then he can have a big say in proceedings.
Lostintranslation will have to find a little with Defi Du Seuil, especially off level weights, as will Vinndication – whose tendency to jump right-handed isn’t encouraging around Cheltenham, either. Real Steel would be a likeable bet, but he’s being supported even now into 6/1 (opened I think at 8s), so despite his lack of exposure, I’m going to swerve. Voix Du Reve is Ruby Walsh’s choice, and he loves this race. His form has been bang there, and he’d be my second option in this race – Walsh having won the JLT thrice.
Pertemps
I find it strange that a Barry Geraghty-saddled horse in Sire Du Berlais is a relatively strong head of the market. His handicap record at Cheltenham is terrible, to go back to this Fat Jockey Forum thread. That said, the last three Pertemps winners have all been Irish, and have all been strong in the betting. To that end, I’ll go with current fourth-favourite Walk To Freedom (12/1 each way with William Hill, 1/5 1-5), who is Robbie Power’s fancy for the race, and who ran a blinder in one of the qualifiers for this race. With two recent winners being at the top of the weights, Walk To Freedom could be another, and I like the value.
I have to have a second selection here though, especially with six places paid at some firms. Aaron Lad (14/1 each way, Paddy Power or Betfair, 1/5 1-6) is trained by the shrewd Richard Newland and connections have hinted his 90-day break before this race was probably the plan. His last run was over course and distance and I was really taken with how much more he had to give the further the race progressed. A 9lb rise needs to be defied, though, but I’m happy with the price regardless.
There are too many others to mention and to cross-reference, but Abolitionist is taking a very similar route toward the Grand National as Pineau De Re, who wasn’t beaten far in this race on the way to a GN 2nd in 2014 – though I’m hoping just for a safe spin round. Wait For Me, with an estimable Cheltenham record, is worth a lash at a big 40/1, but wasn’t too good in last year’s Pertemps, so I’m not poking. First Assignment and Samburu Shujaa are both skinny-ish prices for a reason, too.
Ryanair Chase
What a card. This is one of the deepest races at the festival. We are almost certainly going to see a bit of a pace war at the front, with four or five who like to make the running (Monalee, Un De Sceaux, Footpad, Frodon etc) ensuring it. The bookies also all seem to have a vice-like grip on the market, with it so competitive. At the time of writing, the top five in the market are generally between 4/1 and 7/1.
With BetVictor (again!) paying a fourth place on this race, I’m gonna take a chance on Terrefort (25/1 each way with BetVictor, 1/5 1-4), who has looked decent when healthy this year, finishing in the frame behind Frodon and Clan Des Obeaux at trips of about 3m. While he’s got to find more – of course – the race will be run to suit, and the way he won his novice Grade 1s on soft (with a JLT second, too) gives me hope.
The other horse to potentially benefit from the race panning out this way is Road to Respect (4/1 generally), who has swerved the Gold Cup for a tilt at this. If his jumping is better today, then I can definitely see him coming off a hot pace to pick up the pieces and win it around jumping the last or even in the home straight.
I’d want Monalee and Footpad at bigger prices; Un De Sceaux may be getting long in the tooth and is in a very deep renewal; and I don’t think Frodon will have the race run to suit. I can’t make a case for others at bigger prices, so this is it for me for the Ryanair.
Stayers’ Hurdle
This will probably go to Paisley Park. He’s looked phenomenal this year and is a well-deserved 7/4 or so favourite, with wins in the Long Walk and Cleeve Hurdles. I will therefore not be opposing him for win purposes, but with 18 runners, it’s worth having a look at the firms that offer four places (BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes and a couple of others that don’t count).
Bapaume (22/1 each way with Coral and BetVictor, 1/5 1-4) ran well behind Presenting Percy last time out, and generally has looked solid behind Apple’s Jade too (though she disappointed on Tuesday – but I’d expressed my doubts about her liking for Cheltenham). There was a Grade 1 second place in France last May, and a tidy Grade 2 win over shorter – I think Bapaume is a model of consistency and thus I’m hoping to see a place accordingly.
I don’t think anything else in the race is really worth backing: Faugheen is too short and would make for a great story; Supasundae is too often a silver medallist and at 8/1 isn’t worth getting on board; Bacardys likes a fall… and I won’t continue, but you get my thinking, I presume.
Brown Advisory Plate
Most bookies are offering five places. Only Bet365 are offering 1/4 odds with five places, so every tip will be with them. I’m not surprised they’re offering such good terms, though – this is a very tricky race to unpack. My go-to workings will involve trends in the race and from stables/yards – for the Plate, we can see Gigginstown have a decent enough record. Surprisingly they don’t come mob-handed to handicaps, and they have just one runner this year, Valseur Lido. 33/1 is the right price for a horse out of sorts and I won’t be taking it.
However, Venetia Williams sends two to this race, and her record is excellent. She’s had 20 runners, of whom two have won and two have placed, which is a great strike rate. She has been rubbish with her charges in most every other handicap, but the Plate is the one to zone in on. To that end, with both Gardefort and Didero Vallis at 25/1 with Bet365, I’ll be having a small interest on them.
Not a tip, but Kauto Riko flies the flag for the /HorseRacingUK subreddit, and I’ll be very happy if he wins!
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Epatante is well-backed and too short for it. She looks very classy, but hasn’t beaten much, so in what is a pretty competitive field for this sort of race, we’ll be taking her on.
Sinoria (8/1 with Hills and 365) is a very attractive price, and was intended to run in the Ballymore, but moves here after Honeysuckle’s injury. Her win last time out has been franked by Chosen Mate, who was odds on for a Grade 2 event, and I think she’s completely the wrong price.
Also interesting is Lust For Glory (20/1 each way with Bet365, 1/4 1-3), who is three times the price of Posh Trish, with whom she essentially shares form. Thus, at a price, I’m happy to get on board.
Not a race I know too much about, so the stakes will be limited accordingly.
Kim Muir
Bet365 again come up trumps with five places at 1/4 odds. Then again, it’s another very difficult race to make something of, with the head of the market well looked up, and so many other contenders abound. I won’t have a bet on this one – good luck if you do!
Tips Summary
1.30 – Kildisart @ 9/1 – 0.75pts win
2.10 – Walk To Freedom @ 12/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Will Hill, 1/5 1-5)
2.10 – Aaron Lad @ 14/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Paddy Power or Betfair, 1/5 1-6)
2.50 – Terrefort @ 25/1 – 0.5pts e/w (BetVictor, 1/5 1-4)
2.50 – Road To Respect @ 4/1 – 0.75pts win
3.30 – Bapaume @ 22/1 – 0.25pts e/w (Coral or BetVictor, 1/5 1-4)
4.10 – Gardefort @ 25/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Bet365, 1/4 1-5)
4.10 – Didero Vallis @ 25/1 – 0.5pts e/w (same as above)
4.50 – Sinoria @ 8/1 – 1pt win (Will Hill or Bet365)
4.50 – Lust For Glory @ 20/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Bet365, 1/4 1-3)
That’s 9pts in play. We don’t need much to come in to profit – let’s go!